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The Return of H2 – Challenges of Modelling H2 in TIMES

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The Return of H2 – Challenges of Modelling H2 in TIMES

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The Return of H2 – Challenges of Modelling H2 in TIMES

  1. 1. THE RETURN OF H2 – CHALLENGES OF MODELLING H2 IN TIMES ETSAP WORKSHOP, Zurich, 13.12.2017 Sofia Simoes, Juliana Barbosa, Luís Fazendeiro CO2 ENERGY & CLIMATE New Technologies & Low Carbon Practices Climate Mitigation/ Adaptation Consumers Profiles & Energy Efficiency Policy Support Energy Transitions Integrative Energy City Planning
  2. 2. ASSESSING THE H2 POTENTIAL IN THE PT ENERGY SYSTEM [2] (a) Analysis of current and emerging H2 chains (focus on mobility and storage of variable intermittent RES power) (b) Review and update H2 tehnologies in TIMES (c) Simulation, using the TIMES_PT model on the cost-effectiveness of H2 deployment in Portugal in several scenarios, including very high share and variable CO2 mitigation targets (d) Develop a Road map for the development of H2 technologies in the Portuguese energy system till 2050 18 months - first results April 2018
  3. 3. H2 HOLISTIC ANALYSIS [3] ERP (2016) | http://erpuk.org/wp- content/uploads/2016/10/ERP- Hydrogen-report-Oct-2016.pdf “Hydrogen has often been criticised for being an inefficient way of using energy, but a system approach should be taken, when comparing it with other options, that takes into account the flexibility of hydrogen and how it can supply multiple markets. Hydrogen should therefore be evaluated on the cost effectiveness of the overall system and its potential environmental impacts, primarily carbon reduction“
  4. 4. H2 IN TIMES_PT Older version of TIMES_PT includes approx. 90 H2 technologies (last update 2010) › 15 options for H2 production (gaseification, electrolysis, partial oxidation, thermochemical cycles); › 15 options for H2 conversion and distribution; › 60 options for end-use consumption of H2 for power generation and heat production in buildings, industry and for transport (bus, cars and heavy duty trucks) • Cascade-Mints D1.1 Fuel cell technologies and Hydrogen production/Distribution options, DLR, September 2005; E3 Spain Electrolysis Large Electricity Small Gaseification with CCS Coal w/o CCS Steam Steam reforming Solar Biomass Gaseification Natural Gas Pyrolisis Large Small with CCS Process Kvaerner Partial oxidationHeavy fuel oil SMR CH4 Thermochemical cycles
  5. 5. H2 END-USES IN TIMES_PT Residential Space Heating Space cooling Water heating Lighting Cooking Refrigeration Dishwashers Washing machines Clothes dryers Other electric uses Other energy uses Rural houses Urban houses Appartments Services Space Heating Space cooling Water heating Cooking Other electric uses Other energy uses Lighting Refrigeration Public lighting Large services buildings Small services buildings Agriculture Generic use Blending with natural gas
  6. 6. H2 END-USES IN TIMES_PT (II) Transport Iron & Steel Outros metais não ferrosos Ammonia Chlorine Other chemical Cement Lime Glass Other non-metallic minerals Pulp and paper Nitric Acid Other industry Graphic Packaging Hollow Flat Industry Passengers Freight BUS urban BUS interurban Cars Motos Road Rail Metro Trains Passenger Freight Heavy duty Light duty Generic Aviation Generic navigation Aluminium Copper Other non- ferrous metals Blending with natural gas
  7. 7. UPDATE H2 IN TIMES_PT Older version of TIMES_PT included approx. 90 H2 technologies › 15 options for H2 production (gaseification, electrolysis, parcial oxidation, thermochemical cycles); › 15 options for H2 conversion and distribution; › 60 options for end-use consumption of H2 for power generation and heat production in buildings, industry and for transport (bus, cars and heavy duty trucks) • Cascade-Mints D1.1 Fuel cell technologies and Hydrogen production/Distribution options, DLR, September 2005 • E3 Spain 2016 paper using JRC-EU-TIMES model which includes: › 23 options for generation of H2 (…+PEM); › 24 options for conversion and distribution of H2 / 3 storage and 21 distribution (3 liquid H2); › ?? options for end-use consumption for electricity generation, heat production in buildings, for industry and transport (freight heavy and light duty, buses) + blending with natural gas • Bolat, P., Thiel, C. (2014). Hydrogen supply chain architecture for bottom-up energy systems models. Part 1: Developing pathways. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy (39) 17, pp. 8881-8897. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360319914008684 • Bolat, P., Thiel, C. (2014). Hydrogen supply chain architecture for bottom-up energy systems models. Part 2: Techno-economic inputs for hydrogen production pathways. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy (39) 17, pp. 8898-8925.
  8. 8. • Gaseification • Steam reforming • Electrolysis GENERATION • Centralized - underground • Centralized - tank • Decentralized STORAGE •Road: short/long distance; liquified or compressed; refueling stations: LL, LG, GG •Ships (liquified) •Final delivery: road, pipelines or blended with natural gas (6- 15%) DISTRIBUTION •Transport: road for cars and passengers and freight (light/heavy) and rail (?) •Industry: 1st gen biofuels • Buildings (services and residential) • Electricity generation •Agriculture (in gas) END-USE H2 IN TIMES_PT: 1ST APPROACH Slide [8] Main area to improve Main area to improve
  9. 9. Gaseificaçãode biomassa Processo Kvaener SteamreformingEletrólise Gaseificaçãodo carvão SCOAH2G101 G A S B F G C O A L I G G A S C O G C O A H A R C O A C O K C O A B R O SUP COA 00 S U P C O A SCOAH2G110 BBLQH2G110 BWOOH2G101 BWOOH2G130 SELCH2G 120 SELCH2G L201 SELCH2G S101 I N D B L Q IPPPUPC HE00 IPPPUPC HE01 IPPPUPC HE05 IPPPUPC HE99 I N D E L C I P P H T H I P P P R C S Y N H 2 G S U P H T H SELCH2G TRA01 T R A G H 2 TCARG H2FCEL C110TCARG H2IC110 TFHGH2 FC110 TFLGH2 FC110 TFLGH2 FCELC1 10TFLGH2 IC110 TBISGH 2FC110TBUSG H2FC11 0TCARG H2FC11 0 T B IT B U T C L T C S T F H T F L RSDHH2R0 1 RSDHH2U0 1 SH2GH2L10 1 SH2GH2L13 0 SH2GH2L20 1 TRAGH230 1 COMHH201 ELCHH20 1 INDHH20 1 TRAGH240 1 SYNH2L TRAGH2101 TRAGH2201 TRALH2101 TRALH2201 SGASCH2 CCS110 SGASH2G 101 SGASH2G 2101 Óleo Combustíve l SGASH2G 301 SHFOH2G 101 SSOLH2G 130 SSOLH2G 20120 Energiasolar S U P G A S S U P E L C S U P H F O R E N S O L T R A L H 2 TCARLH 2IC110 TFLLH2I C110 COMHH 2 CHLEFCHH2610 CHLEFCHH2510 CHLEFCHH2310 CHLEFCHH2410 CSLEFCHH2510 CSLEFCHH2410 CHPCOMFCHH2 110 CHSEFCHH2310 CSLEFCHH2610 C O M H L E CHLEFC 110 C H L E C O M L T H CHSELT H100 CHLELT H199 CHLELT H100 CHLELT H101 CWLELT H199 CWLELT H100 CHSELT H101 CHSELT H199 CWSEL TH100 CWSEL TH199 DUMAF SCOM C W L E C H S E C W S E ELCHH2 EUFCHH201 PUFCHH210 H E T H T H INDHH2 CHPICHFCHH21 10 CHPIGHFCHH21 10 CHPIISFCHH211 0 CHPILMFCHH21 10 CHPINDFCHH21 10 CHPINMFCHH21 10 CHPIOIFCHH211 0 CHPIPPFCHH21 10 CHPREFFCHH21 10 I A L H T H I A M H T H I C U H T H I C H H T H I C L H T H I G F H T H I G H H T H I I S H T H I N F H T H I L M H T H I C M H T H I N M H T H I O I H T H I P P H T H I N D H T H IALFINP R00 I A L i l m IALFINP R01 ICHSTM HTH00 ICHSTM HTH01 ICHSTM HTH99 ICHOTH TH01 I C H S T M ICHDEM AND00 I C H I C H O T HICUORE PRD00 ICUREC PRD00 ICUREC PRD01 ICUSCD PRD01 M C U S C U ICUFINP R00 I C U IISFINP RO01 IISFECR FR00 IISFECR FR01 I I S G A S B F G INFSTM HTH01 I N F S T M INFDEM AND00 I N F ILMQLM PRO00 ILMQLM PRO01 I L M ICMDRY PRD00 ICMDRY PRD01 ICMDRY PRD02 ICMDRY PRD99 ICMDRY PRD10 M C M C L K ICMFINP RO00 ICMFINP RO01 ICMFINP RO05 ICMFINP RO99 I C M INMSTM HTH00 INMSTM HTH01 INMOTH HTH01 INMSTM HTH99 I N M S T M INMDEM AND00 I N M I N M O T H IOIOTH HTH01 I O I O T H IOIDEM AND00 I O I IPPHIG QUA00 IPPHIG QUA01 IPPHIG QUA05 IPPHIG QUA99 IPPLOW QUA00 IPPLOW QUA01 IPPLOW QUA05 IPPLOW QUA99 IPPPUP CHE00 IPPPUP CHE01 IPPPUP CHE05 IPPPUP CHE99 IPPPUP RYC00 IPPPUP RYC01 IPPPUP RYC99 I P H I P L I N D B I O I N D B L Q M P P P U P IOIOTH HTH00 INMOTH HTH00 ICHOTH TH00 INFSTM HTH00 RSDHH 2R CHPRSDFCHH2 310 CHPRSDFCHH2 410 CHPRSDFCHH2 510 CHPRSDFCHH2 610 RHMEFCHH2310 RHMEFCHH2410 RHMEFCHH2510 RHMEFCHH2610 RHMNFCHH2310 RHMNFCHH2410 RHMNFCHH2510 RHMNFCHH2610 RHREFCHH2310 RHREFCHH2410 RHREFCHH2510 RHREFCHH2610 RHRNFCHH2310 RHRNFCHH2410 RHRNFCHH2510 RHRNFCHH2610 RHUEFCHH2310 RHUEFCHH2410 RHUEFCHH2510 RHUEFCHH2610 RHUNFCHH2310 RHUNFCHH2410 RHUNFCHH2510 RHUNFCHH2610 E L C L O W R S D H R E RHREF C110 R H R E R S D H R NR S D H U E R S D H U NR S D H M E R S D H M N RHMNF C110 R H M N RHRNF C110 R H R N RHUEF C110 R H U E RHUNF C110 R H U N RHMEF C110 R H M E RHMEFCHH2710 RHMEFCHH2810 RHMEFCHH2910 RHMNFCHH2710 RHMNFCHH2810 RHMNFCHH2910 RSDHH 2U TRANSPORTS RESIDENTIAL INDUSTRY ServicesSYNH2 CU SYNH2 CT
  10. 10. THE RETURN OF H2? • Bolat, P., Thiel, C. (2014). Hydrogen supply chain architecture for bottom-up energy systems models. Part 1: Developing pathways. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy (39) 17, pp. 8881-8897. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360319914008684 • Bolat, P., Thiel, C. (2014). Hydrogen supply chain architecture for bottom-up energy systems models. Part 2: Techno- economic inputs for hydrogen production pathways. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy (39) 17, pp. 8898-8925. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2014.03.170 • Sgobbi, A. et al (2016). How far away is hydrogen? Its role in the medium and long-term decarbonisation of the European energy system. Int. Journal of Hydrogen Energy (41) 1, pp 19-35. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360319915301889 • IEA (2015) Technology Roadmap, Hydrogen and Fuel Cells. Paris. • Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking. (2015) Study on H2 from RES in the EU (Final Report) • Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking Fuel Cell Electric Buses (2015) Potential for Sustainable Public Transport in Europe • Hydrogenics. (2016) Power to Gas Roadmap for Flanders • Hydrogen Council (2017) How hydrogen empowers the energy transition. http://hydrogeneurope.eu/wp- content/uploads/2017/01/20170109-HYDROGEN-COUNCIL-Vision-document-FINAL-HR.pdf • The Energy Research Partnership. (2016) Potential Role of Hydrogen in the UK Energy System • DOE/NREL (2017) Comparison of conventional vs. modular hydrogen refueling stations, and on-site production vs. delivery.
  11. 11. H2FIRST: HYDROGEN FUELING INFRASTRUCTURE RESEARCH AND STATION TECHNOLOGY [11] Fuel stations built on site Modular pre- fabricated fuel stations (1-1.5 M USD) H2 delivered as compressed gas from centralised production plant H2 produced locally via SMR H2 produced locally via eletrolysis 100 kg/day (12 GJ/day*) 200 kg/day (24 GJ/day*) 300 kg/day (36 GJ/day*) H2 produced locally via eletrolysis H2 produced locally via eletrolysis * Condered NCV 120 MJ/kg of http://www.h2data.de/ DOE USA Exclude liquid H2 and underground storage
  12. 12. UPDATE SUBRES H2 IN TIMES_PT Electrolysis Alkaline (6) Electricity PEM Gaseification with CCS Coal w/o CCS Offgrid (2) Steam reforming Solar Biomass Gaseification Natural Gas Pyrolisis Central CCS Central Decentral. Process Kvaerner Partial oxidationHeavy fuel oil SMR Natural gas Thermochemical cycles Central CCS Central Decentral. electricity SR electricity Natural gas Steam reformingBioethanol electricity
  13. 13. BLENDING H2 IN NATURAL GAS? [13] Reference Model/Organisation Year Blending? Sgobbi et al., Int. J. Hydrogen E., 41, 19-35, 2016 JRC-EU-TIMES 2016 Yes, 15% Bolat and Thiel, Part I, Int. J. Hydrogen E., 39, 8898-8925, 2014 JRC, literature review 2014 Yes, 10% (pathway 16) NRC- The Hydrogen Economy US National Research Council – review 2004 No - discussion dedicated gas H2 pipelines IEA – Technology Roadmap, Hydrogen and Fuel Cells IEA 2016 Yes, 5-10% Hydrogen Council - How hydrogen empowers the energy transition H2 Council 2017 Yes, but no value given Klaus Altfeld and Dave Pinchbeck - Admissible hydrogen concentrations in natural gas systems, ISSN 2192-158X DIV Deutscher Industrieverlag GmbH 2013 Looks at this issue in great detail, suggests a likely upper limit of 10% for most cases Potential Role of Hydrogen in the UK Energy System Energy Research Partnership 2016 Up to 20% appears possible without modifications
  14. 14. LIQUID H2? [14] Reference Model/Team Year Consider liquid H2? NRC- The Hydrogen Economy US National Research Council – review 2004 yes, but mainly storage and distribution Bolat and Thiel, Part I, Int. J. Hydrogen E., 39, 8898-8925, 2014 JRC, literature review 2014 yes Sgobbi et al., Int. J. Hydrogen E., 41, 19-35, 2016 JRC-EU-TIMES 2016 yes IEA – Technology Roadmap, Hydrogen and Fuel Cells IEA 2016 yes, but mainly storage and distribution Hydrogen Council - How hydrogen empowers the energy transition H2 Council 2017 yes, briefly Potential Role of Hydrogen in the UK Energy System Energy Research Partnership 2016 yes, for distribution Ethan S. Hecht, Joseph Pratt, Comparison of conventional vs. modular hydrogen refueling stations, and on-site production vs. delivery Sandia National Laboratories, study for DOE, USA 2017 yes, for distribution Dodd-Ekins, powertrains for the UK, Int. J. Hydr. E. , 39, 13941-13952, 2014 UK-MARKAL/ UCL 2014 no Ballard – Hydro rail presentation Ballard 2017 no
  15. 15. TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP – H2 AND FUEL CELLS [15] IEA > Ortions for Generation (8): alkaline electrolysis , PEM electrolysis, gas SMR, gas SRM with CCS, coal gaseification, biomass gaseification, FC alkaline, FC PEM > Options for Storage (13): PEM alkaline, PEM fixed, PEM FC mobile, FC solid oxides, FC phosporic acid, molten carbonates, compressor at 18 MPa, compressor at 70 Mpa, Liquidifier, FCEV on-board storage tank at 70 Mpa, pressurized tank, liquid storage, pipeline Power to gas Electrolysis PEM Methanation Natural gas grid OCGT Power to power Electrolysis PEM Storag. Und. PEMFC Electrolysis Alkaline Electrolysis PEM OCGTStorag. Und. Storage in pumped hydro CAES
  16. 16. H2 IN TIMES_PT: 2ND APPROACH Slide [16] Storage Distribution ConversionEnd-use Generation End-use Generation ConversionEnd-use Generation
  17. 17. MODELLING H2 IN TIMES_PT We have been modelling H2 as separate puzzle pieces and may the most cost-effective win It should instead be modelled as pathways
  18. 18. PATHWAYS - CENTRALIZED Centralized generation Compression (gas) Dedicated pipelines Dedicated distribution Fuel stations Residential sector with FC for electricity generation Services sector with FC for electricity generation Transport in trucks Fuel stations Undergroun d storage Storage in tanks Conversion Synthetic fuels Electricity generation (VRES) Methanation & blending in natural gas grid Blending 1 2 34
  19. 19. PATHWAYS - DECENTRALIZED . Decentralized production In fuel stations Storage in tanks Storage in trucks At the fuel station Industry Electricity generation Storage in tanks Ammonia production Diesel desulfurization Other industry uses 4
  20. 20. SOME TOUGHTS › communicating with the H2 world › e.g. costs units in ton H2 or m3 H2 not €/kW; lifetime in operation hours not years › H2 feedstocks are very varied and fundamental to explain why some feedstock are in and some are not › simplify your model – update SubRES based on scenarios to explore › less effort on fossil based generation options › modular H2 supply for transport instead of very detailed representation of all possible distribution options › ignore liquid H2 possibilities for transport › specify format of operation for some technologies considering the specific pathway: lifetime of PEM might not be 3 years depending how it is operated [20]
  21. 21. Sofia Simões sgcs@fct.unl.pt Juliana Barbosa jpa.barbosa@campus.fct.unl.pt Luís Fazendeiro l.fazendeiro@campus.fct.unl.pt Júlia Seixas mjs@fct.unl.pt CO2 ENERGY & CLIMATE New Technologies & Low Carbon Practices Climate Mitigation/ Adaptation Consumers Profiles & Energy Efficiency Policy Support Energy Transitions Integrative Energy City Planning

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