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THE COST OF GREEN TRANSITION IS
NOTHING COMPARED TO OUR
HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS
A study on Danish environmental effects, by Energy Modelling Lab
ApS (EML), Aarhus University (AU),Aalborg University hospital
(AAU) and Copenhagen University (CU)
Mikkel Bosack Simonsen
WHY EVEN LOOK INTO HEALTH
IMPACTS FROM AIR POLLUTION?
EMISSIONS KNOWS NO
BOUNDARIES
Only 30 % of heath costs in Denmark relates
to Danish emissions
20 billion DKK annually from Danish emissions
Navigation in the North sea and Baltic sea is
estimated to have a socioeconomic cost of
more than 1000 bill DKK every year
BACKGROUND FOR LINKING AIR
POLLUTION AND ENERGY SYSTEM MODELS
• The team who has developed the linking of air pollution modelling and energy
system modelling to include health impacts in the evaluation of future scenarios is
originally from the CEEH project - Centre for Energy, Environment and Health
headed by Prof. Eigil Kaas, KU
• Development of the method for linking was mainly done by Prof. Jørgen Brandt,
Aarhus University and PhD Kenneth Karlsson now EML and IVL (formally DTU)
• In the recent EU H2020 project REEEM – a similarly linking was done including the
same Danish teams
• Based on this methodology a couple of “real world” analysis has been carried out:
“Klimakommissionen…..” + Notat 1 “Husk Helbredomkostningerne”
MODELLING SETUP
MODEL SYSTEM SETUP
Air Pollution
Dispersion Model
- DEHM
Energy System
Model –
TIMES/Balmorel
Health Costs
EvaluationTool –
EVA
Emission and
weather data
Demography,
Population
Data
Energy Stat,
EnergyTechnologies,
Economic
projection
Energy consumption sectors
Emission trajectories
Health impact costs
Exposure geographically
Exposure from sectors
Physical health impacts and costs
Unit costs e.g. kr./kg SO2
Emission concentration level
- 1x1 km and 100x100m
Emission tracked from sectors
Results
Concentration levels Unit costs
Emission
scenarios
POST CALCULATION OF HEALTH COSTS
Energy System
Model –
TIMES/Balmorel
Energy consumption
sector level
Emission factors and unit costs Emissions and health impact costs
RESULTS
DANISH POLLUTION IN DENMARK
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Husholdninger Vejtransport
Bill.DKK/year
Health cost i Denmark today from Danish emissions in residential
and road transport
Diesel/olie Benzin Naturgas Biobrændsler
Brændeovne Træpiller+halm Dæk og bremser
FUTURE PROJECTIONS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Basisår
BF2019
COMETS_CCS
COMETS_CCS_Bio
BF2019
COMETS_CCS
COMETS_CCS_Bio
2015 2020 2030
Bill.DKK/year
Healt costs in Denmark from danish emissions
Dyr og afgrøder
Skibstransport
Flytransport
Godstransport
Passagertransport
Husholdninger
Industri
Affaldsforbrænding
El og varme prod.
ESTIMATED COSTS OF ENERGY SECTORS
THE GREEN TRANSITIONS IN DENMARK TO
ACHIVE A 70 % GHG REDUCTION IN 2030
TIMES-DK
scenarios
CEPOS EA energianalyse Climate
partnerships
(Danish industrial
collaboration)
10-15 Bill DKK/year 27 Bill DKK/year 13 Bill DKK/year 15 Bill DKK/year
CONCLUSION
• Danish air pollution costs in Denmark only is estimated today to cost approx.
19 billion DKK annually
• Saving potential is between 10 and 14 billion DKK depending on biomass
consumption
• Global cost from Danish emissions is approx. 45 billion today
• Global saving potential is between 15 and 20 billion DKK depending on biomass
consumption
• Cost of the Danish 2030 target is estimated to be approx. 15 billion in 2030
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME
Mikkel Bosack Simonsen
Energy Modelling Lab
www.energymodellinglab.com
REFERENCES
• https://energymodellinglab.com/publications/
• http://dce.au.dk/fileadmin/dce.au.dk/Udgivelser/Notater_2019/Miljoeoekonomi
ske_beregningspriser_for_emissioner.pdf
• http://dce2.au.dk/pub/SR182.pdf
• http://dce2.au.dk/pub/SR360.pdf

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The cost of green transition is nothing compared to our health and environmental costs

  • 1. THE COST OF GREEN TRANSITION IS NOTHING COMPARED TO OUR HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS A study on Danish environmental effects, by Energy Modelling Lab ApS (EML), Aarhus University (AU),Aalborg University hospital (AAU) and Copenhagen University (CU) Mikkel Bosack Simonsen
  • 2. WHY EVEN LOOK INTO HEALTH IMPACTS FROM AIR POLLUTION?
  • 3. EMISSIONS KNOWS NO BOUNDARIES Only 30 % of heath costs in Denmark relates to Danish emissions 20 billion DKK annually from Danish emissions Navigation in the North sea and Baltic sea is estimated to have a socioeconomic cost of more than 1000 bill DKK every year
  • 4. BACKGROUND FOR LINKING AIR POLLUTION AND ENERGY SYSTEM MODELS • The team who has developed the linking of air pollution modelling and energy system modelling to include health impacts in the evaluation of future scenarios is originally from the CEEH project - Centre for Energy, Environment and Health headed by Prof. Eigil Kaas, KU • Development of the method for linking was mainly done by Prof. Jørgen Brandt, Aarhus University and PhD Kenneth Karlsson now EML and IVL (formally DTU) • In the recent EU H2020 project REEEM – a similarly linking was done including the same Danish teams • Based on this methodology a couple of “real world” analysis has been carried out: “Klimakommissionen…..” + Notat 1 “Husk Helbredomkostningerne”
  • 6. MODEL SYSTEM SETUP Air Pollution Dispersion Model - DEHM Energy System Model – TIMES/Balmorel Health Costs EvaluationTool – EVA Emission and weather data Demography, Population Data Energy Stat, EnergyTechnologies, Economic projection Energy consumption sectors Emission trajectories Health impact costs Exposure geographically Exposure from sectors Physical health impacts and costs Unit costs e.g. kr./kg SO2 Emission concentration level - 1x1 km and 100x100m Emission tracked from sectors Results Concentration levels Unit costs Emission scenarios
  • 7. POST CALCULATION OF HEALTH COSTS Energy System Model – TIMES/Balmorel Energy consumption sector level Emission factors and unit costs Emissions and health impact costs
  • 9. DANISH POLLUTION IN DENMARK - 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Husholdninger Vejtransport Bill.DKK/year Health cost i Denmark today from Danish emissions in residential and road transport Diesel/olie Benzin Naturgas Biobrændsler Brændeovne Træpiller+halm Dæk og bremser
  • 10. FUTURE PROJECTIONS 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Basisår BF2019 COMETS_CCS COMETS_CCS_Bio BF2019 COMETS_CCS COMETS_CCS_Bio 2015 2020 2030 Bill.DKK/year Healt costs in Denmark from danish emissions Dyr og afgrøder Skibstransport Flytransport Godstransport Passagertransport Husholdninger Industri Affaldsforbrænding El og varme prod.
  • 11. ESTIMATED COSTS OF ENERGY SECTORS THE GREEN TRANSITIONS IN DENMARK TO ACHIVE A 70 % GHG REDUCTION IN 2030 TIMES-DK scenarios CEPOS EA energianalyse Climate partnerships (Danish industrial collaboration) 10-15 Bill DKK/year 27 Bill DKK/year 13 Bill DKK/year 15 Bill DKK/year
  • 12. CONCLUSION • Danish air pollution costs in Denmark only is estimated today to cost approx. 19 billion DKK annually • Saving potential is between 10 and 14 billion DKK depending on biomass consumption • Global cost from Danish emissions is approx. 45 billion today • Global saving potential is between 15 and 20 billion DKK depending on biomass consumption • Cost of the Danish 2030 target is estimated to be approx. 15 billion in 2030
  • 13. THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME Mikkel Bosack Simonsen Energy Modelling Lab www.energymodellinglab.com