Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Technology-based Approach for the Impacts of Global Warming on the Energy Use of Air Conditioning in Taiwan

236 views

Published on

Technology-based Approach for the Impacts of Global Warming on the Energy Use of Air Conditioning in Taiwan

Published in: Data & Analytics
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Technology-based Approach for the Impacts of Global Warming on the Energy Use of Air Conditioning in Taiwan

  1. 1. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 1 Green Energy and Environment Research Laboratories Industrial Technology Research Institute(ITRI), Taiwan Technology-based Approach for the Impacts of Global Warming on the Energy Use of Air Conditioning in Taiwan Hsin-Wei Hsu , Meng-Ying Lee, Pei-Ling Wen, Jing-Wei Kuo IEA-ETSAP Workshop College Park Marriott Hotel & Conference Center July 10, 2017
  2. 2. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 2 Outline I. Introduction II. Methodology and Evaluation Process III. Results and Discussion IV. Conclusions
  3. 3. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 3 Outline I. Introduction II. Methodology and Evaluation Process III. Results and Discussion IV. Conclusions
  4. 4. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 4 Overview of Taiwan’s Energy Consumption Trend of electricity consumption (1996 – 2016)Total energy consumption, 2016 (116,808.9 103KLOE) • The annual growth rate (1996-2016) for energy consumption: 2.65% • The annual growth rate (1996-2016) for electricity consumption: 3.15% • The share of electricity consumption for building sector is about 38% • Fossil fuel power accounts for 82% of total electricity generated in Taiwan Source: Energy statistics, 2016
  5. 5. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 5 Contribution to the growth of electricity Annual growth rate for electricity consumption ResidentialServicesAgriculturalTransportationIndustrial Energy sector Own Use Growth rate for electricity consumption by sectors, 2016 • The main increase in electricity consumption comes from the residential sector in 2016. • WHY?
  6. 6. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 6 Electricity consumption from AC Share of electricity consumption by building equipment Residential School Office Hospital Discount stores Department store Hotel Government agencies AC Lighting other devices Reference: Taiwan Research Institute (2015), Taiwan Green Productivity Foundation (2015) • Energy service demand for cooling is one of the key factor for the energy consumption of building sector • The share of electricity consumption for Air conditioning in the services sector is about 46%, in the residential sector is about 22% in Taiwan. • The share of electricity consumption in summer for AC in the services sector is about 51%, in the residential sector is about 40% in Taiwan.
  7. 7. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 7 The temperature is increasing… The distribution of temperature in Taiwan, 2006-2015 Average of temperature, 2006-2015 • The temperature greater than 28oC in the last 10 years is about 2,000 hours Source: Data Bank for Atmospheric & Hydrologic Research (TTFRI, 2016)
  8. 8. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 8 Outline I. Introduction II. Methodology and Evaluation Process III. Results and Discussion IV. Conclusions
  9. 9. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 9 Taiwan TIMES model • Taiwan MARKAL model was established in 1993 with funding support from Bureau of Energy. It was transformed into Taiwan TIMES model in 2010. • Taiwan MARKAL/TIMES model has been supporting energy policy making including nuclear debates, national energy development planning, INDC target setting, etc.
  10. 10. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 10 Residential & Service Sector: ESD projection  Cooling Energy Service Demand (ESD) Total residential floor space Total cooling demand of residential sector Average cooling load per area Operation hours (consider household structure) Total population Household size(AR(1)) Household Number Floor space of School/Retail/Accom modation & Eating- drinking/Hospital/Tran sport/Other Total cooling demand of service sector Average cooling load per area Operation hours Total population GDP of Service sector Students GDP per capita Regression Model Regression Model
  11. 11. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 11 Factors affected by temperature Cooling Energy Service Demand = Cooling Load × Usage Time × Floor Area • The relation for electricity consumption of AC and cooling energy service demand in Taiwan TIMES model can be showed as follow: • Cooling load: 450Kcal/h each square meter in Taiwan. • The values of usage time and floor are depend on the types of industries – The annual usage time in Taiwan TIMES model School Discount stores Hotel Hospital Transportation Other Residential annual usage time (hrs) 864 2,388 2,388 2,730 2,730 1,248 452 – Floor Area: According to the characteristics of each field, select the variables that may affect their demand patterns (school age population, per capita income, service industry GDP, household number, etc.) and establish the estimation formula. infiltration load, transmission load(↑2.25%/oC) , internal load, Electricity Consumption of AC = Technical Efficiency × Cooling Energy Service Demand
  12. 12. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 12 Infiltration and transmission load • Air Enthalpy Formula (Wagner and Prub, 2002): h(kJ/kg) = T × (1.01 + 0.00189X) + 2.5X, where T = Temperature (°C); X = absolute humidity = Mixing ratio (g/kg) • The infiltration load is one of the main factors contributes to cooling energy demand infiltration load = 1.2 × Q × △h (Q=Ventilation; △h=difference of outdoor and indoor enthalpy) Source:Norbert Lechner (2014) Internal load positive relative to the infiltration load Transmission load • Transmission load: Based on the surveys and comments from experts, the temperature increase 1 °C, then the impact for cooling load from transmission is about 1.5% to 3%. We set 2.25% in this study.
  13. 13. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 13 Impact on technical efficiency of AC • When outdoor temperature increases, the overall technical efficiency of AC equipment reduces. • When outdoor temperature between 25~50°C, the relation of temperature and technical efficiency is approximately linear. • The simulation for the case of Taiwan from ITRI Model Ambient temperature(℃) AC Capacity(W) System power consumption (W) COP (W/W) Outdoor/Indoor AirFlow(CMM) LST0931YG 30 2701.8 956.7 2.824 25.9/7.8 LST0931YG 35 2580 997.3 2.587 25.9/7.8 LST0931YG 40 2275.1 1045.9 2.175 25.9/7.8 Source:Industrial Technical Research Institute (ITRI), 2017 Outdoor temperature Source:Wang (2006) • For the air-cooled AC system, when the average ambient temperature increases 1 °C, the technical efficiency of AC, Coefficient of Performance (COP), reduces 2.3%.
  14. 14. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 14 The structure of estimation for infiltration load
  15. 15. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 15 IPCC AR5 RCP scenarios for localization • 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s fifth Assessment Report (AR5) – RCP 2.6: Peak in radiative forcing at ~ 3 W/m2 before 2100 and decline – RCP 4.5: Stabilization without overshoot pathway to 4.5 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100 – RCP 6.0: Stabilization without overshoot pathway to 6 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100 – RCP 8.5: Rising radiative forcing pathway leading to 8.5 W/m2 in 2100. • Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform Project (TCCIP) of Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) set up four RCP scenarios for the four regions of Taiwan (North, Central, South and East). Source: Taiwan Climate Projection and Information Platform Project (TCCIP), 2016. https://tccip.ncdr.nat.gov.tw/v2/index_en.aspx
  16. 16. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 16 Step 1: The source of input data Projection of temperature increase in four regions of Taiwan between 2021 to 2040 and 1986 to 2005 • The future trends of absolute humidity for four regions of Taiwan will be measured according to the data from regional observation stations. Humidity North = 0.622 ∗ Temperature North + 0.944 Humidity Central = 0.471 ∗ Temperature Central + 5.29 Humidity South = 0.690 ∗ Temperature South + 0.351 Humidity East = 1.386 ∗ Temperature(East) − 19.571 Source: Taiwan Climate Projection and Information Platform Project (TCCIP), 2016 • The average temperature in the summer (June to September) will increase 0.58~0.79℃ from 2021 to 2040, compared to that of 1986 to 2005, which resulted in the adjustment of the temperature increasing from 2015 to 2030 to be 0.25~0.34℃. • The absolute humidity increase from 2015 to 2030 will be estimated as 0.12~0.45 g/kg
  17. 17. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 17 Step 2: Scenario setting Parameters Outdoor conditions in Reference Scenario Indoor conditions North (Taipei) Central (Taichung) South (Kaohsiung) East (Hualien) Temperature (℃) 29.42 28.97 29.58 28.51 26 Relative humidity (%) 72% 74% 78% 80% 60% Absolute humidity (g/kg) 19.21 19.06 21.06 20.11 12.81 Enthalpy (kj/kg) 78.80 77.97 83.70 80.15 58.91 The setting of temperature, humidity and enthalpy in reference scenario Parameters Outdoor conditions in 2030 (Warming Scenario) North (Taipei) Central (Taichung) South (Kaohsiung) East (Hualien) Temperature (℃) RCP 2.6 29.70 29.25 29.86 28.78 RCP 4.5 29.71 29.27 29.88 28.80 RCP 6.0 29.67 29.23 29.84 28.76 RCP 8.5 29.75 29.31 29.92 28.83 Absolute humidity (g/kg) RCP 2.6 19.38 19.20 21.25 20.48 RCP 4.5 19.39 19.21 21.27 20.51 RCP 6.0 19.36 19.19 21.24 20.46 RCP 8.5 19.41 19.23 21.29 20.56 The setting of temperature and absolute humidity in warming scenario Energy conservation Design Benchmark and Technical Specification Measured at the regional stations Projection of temperature increase in four regions from TCCIP Following the Air Enthalpy Formula
  18. 18. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 18 Step 3: Estimation of different scenarios • Following the air enthalpy formula, we can get the difference of outdoor and indoor enthalpy in the reference and warming scenarios in 2030, and increase ratio of enthalpy in warming scenarios can also be calculated. Parameters Difference of outdoor and indoor enthalpy in 2030 (Unit: (kj/kg)) North (Taipei) Central (Taichung) South (Kaohsiung) East (Hualien) Reference Scenario 19.89 19.06 24.79 21.24 Warming Scenario RCP 2.6 20.62 19.70 25.59 22.48 RCP 4.5 20.66 19.74 25.64 22.57 RCP 6.0 20.54 19.65 25.52 22.39 RCP 8.5 20.75 19.83 25.74 22.73 Difference between Reference and Warming scenarios (increase ratio) RCP 2.6 0.73 (3.67%) 0.64 (3.36%) 0.80 (3.21%) 1.24 (5.85%) RCP 4.5 0.77 (3.86%) 0.68 (3.57%) 0.85 (3.41%) 1.33 (6.24%) RCP 6.0 0.65 (3.29%) 0.59 (3.08%) 0.73 (2.94%) 1.15 (5.40%) RCP 8.5 0.86 (4.33%) 0.77 (4.02%) 0.95 (3.84%) 1.49 (7.03%) Difference of outdoor and indoor enthalpy and increase ratio in 2030
  19. 19. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 19 Step 4-1: Impacts on cooling ESD • The contribution of infiltration gains for heat gains of AC is 33.3%. (Architecture and Building Research Institute, 2015) • Energy service demand for AC in summer increase 1% to 2.3% for different regions and scenarios in 2030. • The cooling energy service demand increase the most in East by 1.9% to 2.3% in different warming scenarios due to the humidity. (lowest temperature) Increase ratios of cooling ESD in four regions between June and September
  20. 20. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 20 Step 4-2: Impacts on electricity consumption Sectors Share of electricity consumptions in residential and service sectors Share of electricity consumptions for AC in residential and service sectorsNorth Central South East Residential sector 25.4% 10.9% 15.6% 1.1% 21.90% Service sector 24.4% 9.7% 11.8% 1.1% 46.44% Source: Taipower, 2016. Share of electricity consumptions in different sectors and regions in the summer of 2015 Increase ratios of cooling ESD in residential and service sectors between June and September Increase ratios of electricity demand in residential and service sectors
  21. 21. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 21 Sensitivity analysis for infiltration load • The most sensitive factor is absolute humidity in North region Sensitivity analysis for the increase ratio of electricity demand in residential and service sectors (RCP 8.5 scenario)
  22. 22. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 22 Outline I. Introduction II. Methodology and Evaluation Process III. Results and Discussion IV. Conclusions
  23. 23. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 23 Entire cooling ESD Increase ratios of cooling ESD in four regions between June and September Cooling Energy Service Demand = Cooling Load × Usage Time × Floor Area infiltration load, transmission load(↑2.25%/oC) , internal load, 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 2.5% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 2.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 3.1% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% North Central South East RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5
  24. 24. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 24 Entire electricity consumption Electricity Consumption of AC = Technical Efficiency × Cooling Load × Usage Time × Floor Area • For the impacts on the entire energy system, it will based on the projection of future energy mix and demand by Taiwan TIMES model. Increase ratios of cooling ESD in residential and service sectors between June and September Increase ratios of electricity demand in residential and service sectors 0.51% 0.54% 0.46% 0.60% 1.08% 1.15% 0.98% 1.27% 0.79% 0.84% 0.72% 0.94% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% 1.40% RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5 residential sector service sector residential and service sectors 1.81% 1.91% 1.64% 2.13% 1.81% 1.92% 1.65% 2.13% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5 residential sector service sector
  25. 25. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 25 Evaluation of whole energy system • RCP 8.5 scenario • The impact of whole year is smaller than the estimation value of summer. • Although the temperature rising may increase the needs of cooling demand and electricity, technology progress and penetration of efficient equipment may reduce the impact by using more efficiency equipment. • The contribution of global warming is more significant in residential sector. 6.69% 21.14% 14.10% BAU Electricity consumption increase between 2030 and 2015 residential sector service sector residential and service sectors 0.57% 0.19% 0.53% 0.21% 0.57% 0.53% 0.47% 0.45% 0.57% 0.36% 0.50% 0.35% WARMING WARMING+TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS WARMING WARMING+TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS COMPARE TO 2015 COMPARE TO 2030 Increase reatios of electricity cunsumption from warming residential sector service sector residential and service sectors
  26. 26. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 26 Impacts of whole energy system • The impact of warming on total GHG emissions in Taiwan for air conditioning is relative small no matter in the case of Low Carbon or BAU, but for residential and service sectors, the impacts are higher. 0.12% 4.26% 0.08% 0.16% 0.52% 0.48% 0.36% 0.30% 0.12% 10.74% 0.06% 0.12% 0.18% 0.44% 0.32% 0.84% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% Total GHG emissions GHG emissions in residentail and service sectors Primary energy consumption Total electricity consumption Electricity consumption in residential sector Electricity consumption in service sector Electricity consumption in residential and service sector coal-fired generation Low Carbon BAU
  27. 27. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 27 Outline I. Introduction II. Methodology and Evaluation Process III. Results and Discussion IV. Conclusions
  28. 28. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 28 Conclusions • The estimation shows that Eastern Taiwan needs to expand its cooling demand more than that of other three regions under the warming scenarios due to the humidity. • Due to the high share of electricity consumption, the sensitive factors are temperature and absolute humidity in North. • The energy saving (using more efficiency equipment and reducing the use of air conditioning) can reduce the impacts from warning. • In residential and service sectors, temperature rising still influence GHG emissions by increasing 4.26% in BAU and 10.74% in Low Carbon. • In the case of Low Carbon, the increase of GHG emission mainly comes from the increase of coal-fired electricity generation. • Ongoing work: This study provided a preliminary research for the global warming related to cooling demand. For the future works, we will research in other factors related to the cooling energy service demand (like usage time) and the influence of the peak load by warming.
  29. 29. Copyright 2017 ITRI 工業技術研究院 29 Thank You for Your Attention! 29 Contact information: Hsin-Wei Hsu E-mail: HW_Hsu@itri.org.tw

×