Techniques for Running Large Numbers of Scenarios in TIMES


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Techniques for Running Large Numbers of Scenarios in TIMES

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Techniques for Running Large Numbers of Scenarios in TIMES

  1. 1. Techniques for Running Large Numbers of Scenarios in VEDA TIMES Xiufeng Yue - ETSAP Workshop
  2. 2. Overview  Background – Why we developed the technique  Applications – How is current model improved by this new technique  Sensitivity Analysis Example  Monte Carlo Analysis Example  Schematics – How to use the technique to batch generate scenarios
  3. 3. Background NTR Project: Our 2050 – Opportunities for Ireland In A Low Carbon Economy Model: Irish TIMES model Target: Examine Irish energy system and Identify Robust Technologies Approach: Run large number of scenarios incorporating constraints and uncertainties Issue: VEDA does not facilitate scenario batch generation (Proposal Rejected) Outcome: We Developed Scenario Generator Tool as Workaround
  4. 4. Application - Sensitivity Analysis • Use Irish TIMES Model • Fix ETS Carbon Tax • Vary NETS Carbon Tax • Effect on total emissions Simple Scenario Approach  Difficult to Choose Proper Scenarios  Only Provide Point Estimates  More Difficult to Make Decisions Extensive Sensitivity Analysis  Full Trends of Results  Identify tipping points  Target “interesting” Scenarios
  5. 5. Application - Sensitivity Analysis Total Final Consumption by Sector  Reduced Consumption in Transport Sector Transport by Mode  Fossil Fuel Consumption Halved  Increased Electricity and Biofuel Biofuels Import  Biofuel Import Doubled with 12% increase in carbon tax
  6. 6. Application - Monte Carlo Analysis • Applicable to a variety of energy systems models (ESME, Markal, Answer) • Combine Effects from all Uncertain Parameters • Quantify Uncertainties
  7. 7. Application - Monte Carlo Analysis • Use Irish TIMES Model • Fixed ETS Tax • Triangular Distributions for 2030 and 2050 NETS Targets • Run Model 500 Times • Output NETS CO2 Price • Can we meet the target under certain costs? 2030 NETS Reduction Target Triangular (15%, 25%, 35%) 2050 NETS Reduction Target Triangular (60%, 80%, 100%)
  8. 8. VEDA System .dd & .RUN – Assemble TIMES Model inputs .GDX – Contain Inputs and solutions to GAMS .LST – Equation List .LOG – Report Information .VD – Solution files for VBE
  9. 9. Key Challenges • VEDA-FE processes scenarios one by one – How to automate the Scenario generation process • VEDA-BE unable to process large number of scenarios – How to handle results in millions/billions • VEDA-BE can only export graph for one scenario – How to generate templates for graphing purposes
  10. 10. Multi-Scenario System 1. Run base case scenario with deterministic values 2. Use Scenario Generator to Define Stochastic Values 3. Run scenarios in batch 4. Use VBE or SQL server for results handling
  11. 11. Scenario Generator 1. Import the .dd file containing uncertain parameters 2. Import .RUN file 3. Specify number of iterations, output folders and GAMS folders
  12. 12. Scenario Generator 4. Assign values to uncertain parameters on spreadsheet 5. Generate one .CMD file and a list of .RUN and .dd files 6. .CMD runs all scenarios in batch Define Distributions for Monte Carlo Simulation Define Deterministic List for Sensitivity Analysis
  13. 13. Result Handling with SQL Server 1. Import .VD Table with PowerShell 2. Create Table Templates with SQL Queries
  14. 14. Graphing with Tableau VEDA-Back End & Excel SQL & Tableau
  15. 15. Graphing with Tableau Total Emission Trend Animation BAU Scenario & -80% Scenario
  16. 16. Thank You!