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Reproducing the evolution of import and export electricity price curves in Belgium, in the framework of a European power market

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Reproducing the evolution of import and export electricity price curves in Belgium, in the framework of a European power market

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Reproducing the evolution of import and export electricity price curves in Belgium, in the framework of a European power market
Mr. Andrea Moglianesi, VITO NV (The Flemish institute for technological research), Belgium

Reproducing the evolution of import and export electricity price curves in Belgium, in the framework of a European power market
Mr. Andrea Moglianesi, VITO NV (The Flemish institute for technological research), Belgium

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Reproducing the evolution of import and export electricity price curves in Belgium, in the framework of a European power market

  1. 1. Introduction • Scope of the problem • Endogenous representation of power trade • Exogenous approach (price-quantity curves) o Conceptual design o Dispatch model o Import/export curves o Implementation in TIMES • Comparison o Advantages and disadvantages of the exogenous approach
  2. 2. Scope of the problem • Reproduce electricity price fluctuations • Account for other countries’ exceeding produced power • Better tracking of electricity import/export emissions Why is it important to model electricity import/export in a consistent way in a national model?
  3. 3. Scope of the problem • In particular, for Belgium this is a very influent aspect o Belgium’s interconnection (38%) is much higher than EU requirements by 2030 (15%) [a] o More interconnection capacity is foreseen (almost doubled in 2040) [b] Why is it important to model electricity import/export in a consistent way in a national model? [a] ELIA, Electricity scenarios for Belgium towards 2050, 2017 [b] ENTSO-E, TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report, 2020
  4. 4. Endogenous representation A multi-regional approach • Neighboring countries included in the model, but only for their power sector • Neighboring countries’ power sector: o Power demand built exogenously o Power plants capacity (and availability) in input, also renewables o Possibility to invest in extra gas-based capacity (and in High Renewable Ambition scenario, also PV + batteries) o Same carbon price as in Belgium • Data source: TYNDP ELIA, Electricity scenarios for Belgium towards 2050, 2017
  5. 5. Installed capacity evolution Endogenous representation
  6. 6. Behavior of the model Endogenous representation • Phase-out of coal would be much faster in the neighboring countries then expected/constrained • Consistent investment in new gas power plants in neighboring countries
  7. 7. The exogenous approach: electricity import price curves Conceptual design Price/demand projections Capacity forecasts European-level dispatch model Belgium not included Import price- quantity curves Export price- quantity curves TIMES-BE PSE, Impact report 2019 Model simplifications/ assumptions
  8. 8. The exogenous approach: electricity import price curves Dispatch model: assumptions and inputs Model assumptions Capacity information Techno-economic parameters Cost curves method • 56 zones • Hourly resolution • No transport cost • No losses • Price of import = marginal production price • NTC between zones → TYNDP • Generation capacities → TYNDP 2020 o 2025 → National trends scenario o 2030-2040 → Distributed energy scenario o 2050 → Distributed energy scenario decarbonized • Demand TS → TYNDP • Renewable TS → PECD • Climate year 2012 • Efficiency and emission factors → TYNDP • Storage technologies → hydro (ROR, RES and PHS) and batteries • Fuels and carbon price projections → WEO 2019 SD • Initial run with BE to determine storage evolution (then fixed) • Removal of BE, and setting of increasing import/export levels in different runs → Price-quantity curves
  9. 9. Input data - Imports Neighboring countries export price curves (hourly) Power price [€/MWh] 0 400
  10. 10. Input data - Exports Neighboring countries import price curves (hourly) Power price [€/MWh] 0 400
  11. 11. The new approach: electricity import price curves • One process per each import power production technology (from the dispatch model) • Price changing in each period The implementation in the model 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Marginal prices [€/MWh] Marginal prices for import power production 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
  12. 12. The new approach: electricity import price curves • Emission factors correlated to each technology (no need to do further assumptions) The implementation in the model 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Emission factors [kg CO2 /GJ el ] Emission factors import power per production technology
  13. 13. The new approach: electricity import price curves • Using the availability factors of the different import/export technologies, we then reproduced the price-quantity curves • Price curves have been time-sliced, obtaining → The implementation in the model
  14. 14. The new approach: electricity import price curves Power price [€/MWh] 0 400 Neighboring countries export price curves (time-sliced)
  15. 15. The new approach: electricity export price curves Neighboring countries import price curves (time-sliced) Power price [€/MWh] 0 400
  16. 16. Results of the model • Advantages coming with the new approach: o No risk of overinvestments in neighboring countries to avoid power-related emissions in BE o Reduced computing time o More realistic representation, with the inclusion of more countries/zones Comparison with the endogenous representation (1)
  17. 17. Results of the model • Disadvantages of the new approach o Endogenous effects of capacity investments in the power sector of neighboring countries are not represented (even if the operation is regulated with the same assumptions in the two approaches) o Accountability of power exports-related emissions (as power production and power exports reporting are decoupled) Comparison with the endogenous representation (2)
  18. 18. Next steps • Solve the problem of accountability power exports-related emissions • Increase the representativeness of the TS by including the time series of import/export prices in the TS tool What can still be improved?
  19. 19. Thank you for the attention andrea.moglianesi@vito.be

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