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Pathways to net carbon neutrality for the Nordic countries

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Pathways to net carbon neutrality for the Nordic countries

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Pathways to net carbon neutrality for the Nordic countries

  1. 1. Pathways to net carbon neutrality for the Nordic countries ETSAP workshop 17th June, 2018 Giada Venturini PhD Student Energy System Analysis Technical University of Denmark give@dtu.dk
  2. 2. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark2 26 June 2018 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 66% 50% 33% 66% 50% 33% 66% 50% 33% < 1.5° < 2° < 3° GtCO2 IPCC Global budget (2014 - ) ETP B2DS (2014 - 2060) ETP RTS (2014 - 2060) ETP 2DS (2014 - 2060)
  3. 3. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark3 26 June 2018
  4. 4. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark4 26 June 2018 TIMES-Nordic Balmorel Power demands DH demands Emission budgets Power trade Electricity prices
  5. 5. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Carbon capture technologies 5 26 June 2018
  6. 6. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Carbon transport and storage 6 26 June 2018 From “Nordic CO2 storage atlas” (Nordic CCS Competence Centre) Saline formation Hydrocarbon field Emission source
  7. 7. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Scenarios analysed Nordic_Base 2DS from NETP (2016): o CO2 tax o End-use demands o Fossil fuel prices No energy/climate targets No taxes/subsidies Nordic_CO2_2040 No CO2 tax in Nordics CO2 tax in other countries CO2 neutral by 2040 No taxes/subsidies 7 26 June 2018
  8. 8. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Captured CO2 8 26 June 2018 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 Denmark Norway Sweden Denmark Norway Sweden Nordic_Base Nordic_CO2_2040 ktCO2 Biomass Industry Biomass Power Coal Industry Natural Gas Industry Natural Gas Power
  9. 9. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark9 26 June 2018 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 MtCO2 CO2 stored from biomass CO2 stored from coal CO2 stored from natural gas CO2 Industry CO2 Power CO2 Waste CO2 Residential CO2 Transport Inland CO2 Transport Aviation CO2 Transport Inland CO2 Transport Navigation CO2 Power CO2 Power Net Net projection NETP (2016) CO2 emissions
  10. 10. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Power generation 10 26 June 2018 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2010 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 Nordic_Base Nordic_CO2_2040 PJ CHP Hydro PV grid PV rooftop Thermal electric Wind offshore Wind onshore
  11. 11. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Biomass use 11 26 June 2018 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Potential Nordic_Base Nordic_CO2_2040 PJ Biogas Black liquor Corn Firewood Manure Rapeseed Straw Sugar Beet Waste Wood chips and wood waste Wood pellets Woodpellets
  12. 12. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Biofuels imports 12 26 June 2018 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2013 2030 2050 2013 2030 2050 Nordic_Base Nordic_CO2_2040 PJ Bio Kerosene G1 Bio Methanol G1 Biodiesel G1 Biodiesel G2 Bioethanol G1
  13. 13. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Power flows 13 26 June 2018 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 Nordic_Base Nordic_CO2_2040 PJ From Denmark to Germany From Denmark to Netherlands From Denmark to United Kingdom From Norway to Germany From Norway to Netherlands From Norway to Finland From Sweden to Finland From Sweden to Litauen From Sweden to Poland From Sweden to Germany From Germany to Denmark From Netherlands to Norway From United Kingdom to Norway From Finland to Norway From Russia to Norway From Finland to Sweden From Germany to Sweden From Litauen to Sweden From Poland to Sweden From Netherlands to Denmark From Norway to United Kingdom From Germany to Norway
  14. 14. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark What is still missing • Recycling of CO2 • More fuel options for aviation and shipping • Simplified (aggregated) representation of CO2 transport • CO2 storage through mineral carbonation • Complete model convergence • Constant scenario assumed in the countries outside model scope • No policy analysed, only technical solutions under a certain carbon target 14 26 June 2018
  15. 15. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Thank you for your attention! Questions, doubts, suggestions? Giada Venturini PhD Student Energy System Analysis DTU Management Engineering give@dtu.dk 15

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