Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Modelling the demand in Spain with Med-Pro

368 views

Published on

Modelling the demand in Spain with Med-Pro

Published in: Data & Analytics
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Modelling the demand in Spain with Med-Pro

  1. 1. 70th ETSAP meeting Modelling the energy demand in Spain with MED-Pro CIEMAT (Madrid), 17 November 2016 Carlos Garcia Barquero Head Department of Planning and Studies IDAE 1
  2. 2. IDAE´s experience on energy simulation and prospective studies 2 • Methodology: EUROSTAT (ESR) and IEA Energy Statistics • Prospects:  End-use and RES: Monitoring and prospects of energy consumption by sector (main end-use subsectors in industry, transport, services and households) and fuel (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, electricity, biofuels, biomass, solar, wind and H2);  Energy demand forecasts: in the framework of medium and long-term energy prospective national projects; • Tools: country adaptation and application of energy models, i.e. MEDEE-EUR, MURE, EFOM-ENV, POLES and MED-Pro for Spain; MEDEE-SUD for Algeria and Morocco
  3. 3. • Carried out under the framework of the project “Sectoral studies on energy monitoring (SES)” • Recent studies: o Industry: cement, glass, steel alloys o Transport: urban buses, freight transport, private cars o Services: shopping centers, hotels, hospitals, private offices, universities, institutes and public schools; heat pumps o Residential: electricity and heating & cooling EUROSTAT´s surveys, SPAHOUSEC studies o Renewable: biomass and solar thermal panels End-use and RES studies 3
  4. 4. •Final energy demand long-term simulation: - End-use energy model developed from MEDEE suite, with focus on energy efficiency & technological improvement - Submodels: Industry, Transport, Residential, Services and Agriculture - Disaggregation by sub-sectors, end-uses and intensive processes - Wide level of insight: 450 equations and 900 variables • Advantages: - Flexibility at structure and disaggregation level - Technological progress and socio-economic changes are main drivers - Energy efficiency, saving potential and fuel substitution are also considered - Long-term uncertainty is approached by means of alternative scenarios • Limitations: - Significant amount of data for the base year - Coherent assumptions for the establishment of scenarios are required • Simulation period: - Base year, calibration year and up to 30 forecast years for simulation MED-Pro: Energy Demand Model 4
  5. 5. 5
  6. 6. 6 Flexible disaggregation
  7. 7. 7 Structure of the model INPUTS RESULTS ANNUAL DATA OPTIONAL SUBMODELS SOCIOECONOMIC l Socioeconomics Basic Disaggregation Desagregación sectorial F Industrial production F GDP Macroeconomic consistence F Stock of vehicles F Population Industry F Trade F Households • Thermal uses • Industrial Subsectors • Energy Intensive Products F Stock of dwellings F Equipment ownership • Electric uses • Construction • Steel F Equipment F Employment • Non energy uses • Private vehicles by types Transport l Technicals • ŸPrivate vehicles • Motocycles F Fuel efficiencies • Public passengers SPECIFIC CONSUMPTION F Specific consumptions Road F Intensive Products Rail F Vehicles Air F End uses- Household sector PARAMETERS • ŸGoods F Tertiary Dwellings Road F Elasticities Rail F Logistic coeficients Sea F Conversion coeficients • International sea DEMAND BY ENERGY SOURCE TYPE Agriculture F by industrial branches • Tractores • Energy Intensive Porducts F by transport mode and type of vehicle SCENARIOS • Pumping F Electrical appliances l Socioeconomics • ŸFishing boats F End uses- Tertiary sector F Population • Thermal uses F by agriculture uses F Economic growth • Electric uses F Industrila growth Households F Energy prices • Cooking and other thermal uses • Urban by zone • Heat Water F Productivity • ŸLighting and other electrical consumptions • Rural by zone • ŸHeating • ŸUrban by social class • ŸAir conditioning INDICATORS l Technicals • ŸRural by social class • Electrical apllications F Energy Intensities F Efficiency improvements Tertiary F Elasticities F Technology penetration • Thermal uses • ŸSubsectors • ŸPublic lighting F Energy expenses F Market trends • Electric uses F CO2 emissions • Informal sector • Public passengers by bus size • Freight by truck size DEMAND PROJECTION MODULE STRUCTURE
  8. 8. 8
  9. 9. 9
  10. 10. 10
  11. 11. 11
  12. 12. 12
  13. 13. 13
  14. 14. Modelling with Med-Pro: main sources of information and tasks Tasks • In-depth analysis of energy consumption for the base year • Research and assessment of sectoral energy perspectives • Sectoral disaggregation and preparation of sub-models within the tool •Coherent assumptions for the establishment of scenarios and assignment of variables for each sector •Econometric contrast of electricity for the whole simulation period Sources • IDAE´s own sources (EE & RES technologies) • IDAE´s energy monitoring and technology deployment studies • Statistics and socio-economic forecasts from public and private institutions • Medium and long-term trends provided Spanish Government, European Commission and other international bodies (OCDE, UN, etc.) • Manufacturer associations and private companies of the energy sector 14
  15. 15. Example of global scenarios for MED-Pro Reference • Globalization, economic development and growth in world trade • Similar present economic and energy trends • XX% annual GDP growth for 2000-2030 • EU energy market progress • Oil prices from YY $05/bbl in 2000 to ZZ $05/bbl in 2030. Gas prices … • Light decrease of energy taxes Lower growth • Downturn, with lower economic growth (GDP) and social integration • High increase of oil prices and subsequent oscillations • Similar evolution of energy taxes Hight reduction of ENV impacts • Greater economic growth (GDP), lower during first years • Substantial progress in climate change EU policy, limited emissions of GHG in the energy sector • Lower environmental impacts, targeted fiscal policy and harmonization at EU level • Similar increase of oil prices, greater for gas and lower for coal • Significant increase of energy taxes for end-users, internalization of external costs and environmental benefits Greater growth • Greater economic growth (GDP), in particular during first years • Intensive market, wide economic integration and lower public participation in the economic growth • Similar evolution of energy prices • Decrease of energy taxes 15
  16. 16. Reference Scenario: main inputs 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 $95/barril Year Oil international prices 30,0 32,0 34,0 36,0 38,0 40,0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Millones Year Evolution of Population Source: INE 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Billonesptas.1986 Year Evolution of GDP Source: MEH 0 50 100 150 200 250 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Base1995=100 Evolution of GDP by sector Agricultura Industria Servicios Source: MEH Source: EC 16
  17. 17. Reference Scenario: main results 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Final consumption (ktoe) 64.961 72.026 79.916 87.726 92.413 98.063 103.715 Final Energy Intensity (tep/Mpta 86) 1,66 1,73 1,65 1,62 1,54 1,44 1,32 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 ktoe (toe/Mpta) Evolution of final energyconsumption and energyintensity in Spain Energía (ktep) Intensidad total (tep/Mpta 86) 17
  18. 18. Reference Scenario: results for household sector 0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20 0,25 0,30 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Intensidad energética en el sector residencial: consumo de energía sobre PIB (tep/106pta) Consumo energético de los hogares Intensidad total Gasóleo 11,1% GLP 22,6% Gas natural 10,1% Electricidad 32,1% Solar 0,2% 2000 Combustibles sólidos 24,0 % Gasóleo 11,2% GLP 17,0% Gas natural 17,2% Electricidad 36,0% Solar 2,0% 2010 Combustibles sólidos 16,7 % Gasóleo 10,9% GLP 15,4% Gas natural 20,9% Electricidad 36,6% Solar 2,2% 2020 Combustibles sólidos 13,9 % 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Intensidad energética en el sector residencial: consumo por hogar (tep/hogar) Consumo energético por hogar Consumo eléctrico por hogar Consumo no eléctrico por hogar 18
  19. 19. • MEDPro (EEf) • REMap (RES) • TIMES (EMod) • ECf • RESc-b • ECp • RESc-b SINERGIA MINETUR IDAE SGPES/CIEMAT Results Results Base Input Input Contrast 19 Models interaction under SINERGIA (so far)
  20. 20. MedPro–TIMES sectoral fitting 20
  21. 21. 21

×