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Integrating probabilistic electricity security of supply
assessment into long-term energy planning exercises:
an automated...
2
• Motivations:
– Suitability of existing tools and methodologies for long-term energy planning
– More integrated approac...
3
Energy system model: TIMES-FR
• TIMES-FR: Energy system model for France developed by CMA-Mines ParisTech
• Minimizes to...
4
Energy system model: TIMES-FR
• Time horizon of study 2013-2050, split into 84 annual time-slices
5
ANTARES: a probabilistic tool for power systems
• Probabilistic simulator developed by RTE
• Open source model since Jul...
6
ANTARES main results
Exchanges between neighbors are
possible, within the limits of the
network
Foreachscenariostudied,A...
7
Approach: an automated-data-linking model
 The linking model is supported by the development of several R packages
ANTA...
Ensuring consistency: Common input data
8
• VRE load factors(correlation with load)
• Technical –economic parameters
• 203...
9
Power dispatch decisions: hourly vs time-slices
Dispatchable
 An over-estimation of the residual load duration curve(an...
10
Shortfall risk analysis: LOLE adequacy metric
 The power generation mix proposed by TIMES for 2030, does not respect t...
11
Why we have a shortage of supply?
 Energy balance (TIMES) versus power balance (ANTARES)
 Shortage hours occur at the...
12
Taming TIMES: capacity credit updating
 Updating the capacity credit values over installed technologies has the potent...
13
Generation power mix: optimality question?
 The last iterations activated to satisfy the LOLE criterion require a huge...
14
• What is new?
– Probabilistic adequacy assessment methodology
– Automated linking approach in contrast with soft-linki...
The 74rd Semi-Annual ETSAP workshop
Stuttgart 7-9 November 2018
For further information
yacine.alimou@mines-paristech.fr
n...
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Integrating probabilistic assessment of security of electricity supply into long-term energy planning exercises: an automated-data-linking modeling approach

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Integrating probabilistic assessment of security of electricity supply into long-term energy planning exercises: an automated-data-linking modeling approach

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Integrating probabilistic assessment of security of electricity supply into long-term energy planning exercises: an automated-data-linking modeling approach

  1. 1. Integrating probabilistic electricity security of supply assessment into long-term energy planning exercises: an automated-data-linking modeling approach. Nadia MAÏZI MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, CMA - Center for Applied Mathematics. ,The 74rd Semi-Annual ETSAP workshop Stuttgart 7-9 November 2018 Jean−Yves BOURMAUD Marion LI Réseau de Transport d’Electricité, Yacine ALIMOU
  2. 2. 2 • Motivations: – Suitability of existing tools and methodologies for long-term energy planning – More integrated approach for transition planning • Objectives: – Test the ability of a long term model (TIMES) to address short-term reliability issues (tackled by ANTARES) – Develop a methodological framework to ensure:  Cost-effective future plan  Security of supply requirements • Target audience: – Long-term energy planners – Power system operators Motivation and scope
  3. 3. 3 Energy system model: TIMES-FR • TIMES-FR: Energy system model for France developed by CMA-Mines ParisTech • Minimizes total discounted energy system cost  Investment trajectory • Representation of the power sector within TIMES
  4. 4. 4 Energy system model: TIMES-FR • Time horizon of study 2013-2050, split into 84 annual time-slices
  5. 5. 5 ANTARES: a probabilistic tool for power systems • Probabilistic simulator developed by RTE • Open source model since July-2018 • Balance between supply and demand for the electrical interconnected system References
  6. 6. 6 ANTARES main results Exchanges between neighbors are possible, within the limits of the network Foreachscenariostudied,ANTARES optimizestheunitcommitmentinorderto satisfythedemandatthelowestcost Loss of load
  7. 7. 7 Approach: an automated-data-linking model  The linking model is supported by the development of several R packages ANTARES-FRTIMES-FR Bridge.1 Feed-back loop Global outputs LOLE criterion *Init: Initialization Global input database ANTARES input Fixed TIMES input Fixed Init* UpdatedUpdated Bridge.2 • Linking model = Databases + steps
  8. 8. Ensuring consistency: Common input data 8 • VRE load factors(correlation with load) • Technical –economic parameters • 2030, TIMES power generation portfolio
  9. 9. 9 Power dispatch decisions: hourly vs time-slices Dispatchable  An over-estimation of the residual load duration curve(and its variability) in TIMES leads to over-use of semi-base technologies(coal) Non-dispatchable
  10. 10. 10 Shortfall risk analysis: LOLE adequacy metric  The power generation mix proposed by TIMES for 2030, does not respect the adequacy requirements (LOLE < 3hours) 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝐿𝑂𝐿𝐷 = 𝟏𝟏𝟕𝒉, 𝑠𝑡𝑑 𝐿𝑂𝐿𝐷 = 129ℎ, 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖 𝐿𝑂𝐿𝐷 = 𝟕𝟔𝟏𝒉.
  11. 11. 11 Why we have a shortage of supply?  Energy balance (TIMES) versus power balance (ANTARES)  Shortage hours occur at the peak of residual load = low VRE power output  TIMES underestimates the impact of:  Variability of VRE (climatic conditions)  Operational constraints of the thermal fleet  Generation capacity is insufficient to satisfy demand Example of the median scenario Chosen lever: capacity credit values
  12. 12. 12 Taming TIMES: capacity credit updating  Updating the capacity credit values over installed technologies has the potential to ensure the LOLE criterion (LOLE <= 3 hours) 𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒏 𝑳𝑶𝑳𝑫 = 𝟏𝟏𝟕 𝒉 𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒏 𝑳𝑶𝑳𝑫 = 𝟐. 𝟔𝟒 𝒉(< 𝟑 𝒉),
  13. 13. 13 Generation power mix: optimality question?  The last iterations activated to satisfy the LOLE criterion require a huge investment  Initial underestimation of investment cost : 28% Base year operating cost + unsupplied energy cost + spilled energy cost
  14. 14. 14 • What is new? – Probabilistic adequacy assessment methodology – Automated linking approach in contrast with soft-linking approach – Bi-directional linking exercise(feed-back loops) • What are the main caveats? – Electrical interconnections not taken into account – Need to assess adequacy for all milestone-years, and not only 2030 • Key messages – The capacity mix proposed by TIMES for 2030 does not meet electricity security of supply requirements – Feedback loops between TIMES and ANTARES have the potential to ensure sufficient firm capacity(supply) to meet demand – The methodological framework proposed introduces the electricity security of supply issue into long-term energy planning exercises Concluding thoughts
  15. 15. The 74rd Semi-Annual ETSAP workshop Stuttgart 7-9 November 2018 For further information yacine.alimou@mines-paristech.fr nadia.maizi@mines-paristech.fr jean-yves.bourmaud@rte-france.com marion.li@rte-france.com

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