Inclusion of demand-­‐side behavioural parameters in long-­‐term energy modelling

281 views

Published on

Inclusion of demand-­‐side behavioural parameters in long-­‐term energy modelling

Published in: Data & Analytics
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
281
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
5
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
5
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Inclusion of demand-­‐side behavioural parameters in long-­‐term energy modelling

  1. 1. Inclusion  of  demand-­‐side  behavioural     parameters  in  long-­‐term  energy  modelling   Roman  Kanala   University  of  Geneva,  Ins=tute  of  Environmental  Sciences   ETSAP  workshop  Sophia  An1polis,  22-­‐23  october  2015  
  2. 2. Social  MARKAL   Case:  residen=al  ligh=ng  in  city  of  Nyon   Import Electricity Marketing Moderate Use (process) Marketing Technology Switch (process) Existing Incandescence Bulbs Moderate Use Incand. Bulbs Switched Low Cons. Bulbs Existing Low Cons. Bulbs Residential Lighting - - - - - - - SUPPLY Resource PROCESS TECHNOLOGIES DEMAND DEVICES END-USE DEMAND Energy carrier Electricity Virtual energy carrier Moderate use Virtual energy carrier Technology switch ETSAP  workshop  Sophia  An1polis,  22-­‐23  october  2015   2  
  3. 3. Social  TIMES  Romania   •  three  sectors:  residen=al,  transports,  others   •  only  demand  side      modeled  in  detail   •  supply  side:      virtual  imports   •  start  2010,      6  =me  slices,      7  periods  un=l  2026   Final energy Demand devices Useful demand (Residential) Electricity Incandescent bulbs Lighting Coal EFL bulbs Cooking Light fuel LED bulbs Hot water Heavy fuel Petroleum lamps Space heating Natural gas Coal heating stove Space cooling Petroleum Wood heating stove Clothes washing Biomass Natural gas heating stove Clothes drying Low Temp Heat Electric heating stove Dish washing Solar thermal Petroleum heating stove Refrigerating Solar electric LTH radiators Freezing Solar warm water Electric cooking Wood cooking Natural gas cooking ... Sectors Residential Transports Other 3  ETSAP  workshop  Sophia  An1polis,  22-­‐23  october  2015  
  4. 4. Residen=al  Ligh=ng   (also  for  household  appliances)   4  ETSAP  workshop  Sophia  An1polis,  22-­‐23  october  2015  
  5. 5. Residen=al  hea=ng   5   Proceedings  of  the  Energy  for  Sustainability  Mul=disciplinary  Conference  EfS  2013,     8-­‐10  September  2013  -­‐  Energy  for  Sustainability  Ini=a=ve,  University  of  Coimbra,  Portugal     ETSAP  workshop  Sophia  An1polis,  22-­‐23  october  2015  
  6. 6. Private  passenger  car  traffic   6   ETSAP  workshop  Sophia  An1polis,  22-­‐23  october  2015  
  7. 7. Behaviour  models   •  VBN:  Value  –  Belief  –  Norm   •  TPB:  Theory  of  Planned  Behaviour   •  HB:  Habitual  Behaviour   •  ABC:  AXtude  –  Behaviour  –  Context   •  IPB:  Theory  of  Interpersonal  Behaviour   •  MOA:  Mo=va=on  –  Opportunity  –  Ability   attitude socialnorm self-ef intention behaviourawareness feedback habitual behaviour ++++++ --- cacyfi Beliefsaboutoutcomes Evaluationofoutcomes Norms Roles Selfconcept Emotions Attitude Socialfactors Af Frequencyof pastbehaviour Intention Habits Behaviour Facilitatingconditions fect positive positive negative negative Attitudes(A) Externalconditions(C) Recycling N o Recycling attitude subjectivenorm perceived behavioural control intention behaviour background variables feedback Values (especially altruisticvalues) NEP (worldview) AC(awareness ofconsequences) AR(feelingof responsibility) PN(feelingof obligation) Behaviour Beliefevaluations Attitude towardsbehaviour Intention Socialnorm Ability Habit,taskknowledge Behaviour Opportunity Situationalconditions Motivation 7   Behaviour  models  seek  to  explain  energy  saving     consumer  behaviour,  not  energy  consump1on   ETSAP  workshop  Sophia  An1polis,  22-­‐23  october  2015  
  8. 8. Theory  of  Habitual  Behaviour   8   attitude socialnorm self-ef intention behaviourawareness feedback habitual behaviour ++++++ --- cacyfi Up  to  95%  of  household  energy  behaviour  is  a  form  of  habitual  behaviour.   Source:  Wagenaar,  1992   To  break  the  habitual  loop:  removing  incen=ves  to  habitual  behaviour,     making  consumers  aware  of  their  habits,  enable  to  control  the  outcomes   Source:  Egmond  and  Bruel,  2007   ETSAP  workshop  Sophia  An1polis,  22-­‐23  october  2015  
  9. 9. Social  MARKAL  –  Social  TIMES   Behavioural  Model   9  ETSAP  workshop  Sophia  An1polis,  22-­‐23  october  2015  
  10. 10. What  to  measure   Bounds  on  technologies  -­‐  share  of  people  who:   •  Already  do  have  the  informa=on  and  behave  ra=onally   •  Do  not  have  the  informa=on  but  once  beber  informed,  they  will  change   their  behaviour   •  Will  never  change  because  of  extra-­‐economic  reasons   Efficiencies,  cost  of  virtual  process  technology  “infocampaign”:   •  Part  of  people  for  whom  the  informa=on  campaign  is  the  principal  vector   of  behavioural  change  -­‐  yield   •  Part  of  people  who  denote  a  medium  as  the  most  efficient  one  –  cost  mix   10  ETSAP  workshop  Sophia  An1polis,  22-­‐23  october  2015  
  11. 11. A  hybrid  simula=on-­‐op=misa=on  model   11   Source:  K.  Ramea  et  al.,  Incorpora1on  of  Consumer  Demand  in  Energy  Systems  Models  and  their  Implica1ons  for   Climate  Policy  Analysis,  IEW  Paris,  IEA  19-­‐21  June  2013   ETSAP  workshop  Sophia  An1polis,  22-­‐23  october  2015  
  12. 12. From  the  compe==on  within  modes  toward   compe==on  between  modes   Two  travel  demands:  long  &  short  distance  demand     Two  inputs:  fuel  input,  =me  input     Travel  =me  budget  TTB,  new  variable:  travel  =me  investment  TTI   12   TIMES  with  travel-­‐=me  budget   Source:  H.  Daly  et  al.,  Incorpora1ng  travel  behaviour  and  travel  1me  into  TIMES  energy  system  models,                          Applied  Energy  135  (2014)  429-­‐439   ETSAP  workshop  Sophia  An1polis,  22-­‐23  october  2015  
  13. 13. Share  of  Choice  -­‐  Research  setup   13  ETSAP  workshop  Sophia  An1polis,  22-­‐23  october  2015  
  14. 14. Share-­‐of-­‐Choice  MARKAL   14  ETSAP  workshop  Sophia  An1polis,  22-­‐23  october  2015  
  15. 15. Share  of  Choice  -­‐  Results   15   Proceedings of the 53rd Meeting of the Euro Working Group on Commodities and Financial Modelling (EWGCFM) and 2nd International Conference of the Research Centre for Energy Management (RCEM), 22-24 May 2014, Chania, Crete Proceedings of the 14th Informatics in Economy International Conference, 30 April - 2 May 2015, Bucharest, Romania ETSAP  workshop  Sophia  An1polis,  22-­‐23  october  2015  
  16. 16. Social  MARKAL  vs.  Share  of  Choice  vs.  Others   16   Cochin  TIMES   TIMES  TTI   ETSAP  workshop  Sophia  An1polis,  22-­‐23  october  2015   Social  MARKAL,   Social  TIMES,   Share  of  Choice  MARKAL   can  address  any  behaviour   Bulbs  &  appliances   Residen=al  hea=ng   Car  traffic  
  17. 17. Research  project   •  Swiss  Enlargement  Contribu=on  in  the  framework  of  the   Romanian-­‐Swiss  Research  Program     •  Swiss  Na=onal  Fund  of  Scien=fic  Research  Grant   IZERZ0_142217  (2012-­‐2015)   •  Research  team:   –  Geneva:  Emmanuel  Fragnière,  Francesco  Moresino,  Roman  Kanala   –  Bucharest:  Ion  Smeureanu,  Marian  Dardala,  Andrea  Reveiu,      Emilia  Titan,  Felix  Furtuna   17  ETSAP  workshop  Sophia  An1polis,  22-­‐23  october  2015  

×