Improving residential sector in TIMES-Kazakhstan

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Improving residential sector in TIMES-Kazakhstan, presentation etsap residential sector-v3

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Improving residential sector in TIMES-Kazakhstan

  1. 1. Improving residential sector in TIMES- Kazakhstan Aiymgul Kerimray, Rocco De Miglio, Aidyn Bakdolotov October 23rd 2015 ETSAP Workshop Sophia Antipolis, France
  2. 2. HOUSEHOLDS ACCESS TO ENERGY SERVICES 100% 77% 67% 54.40% 3% 0.60% 22.10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Electricity District heating District water heating Pipeline gas 2011 Urban Rural Committee of statistics (2014) 2
  3. 3. AVAILABILITY OF ENERGY CONSUMING DEVICES, % 3 99.5 99.4 85.7 78.2 86.9 15 8 35.2 90.8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Committee of statistics (2014)
  4. 4. RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ktoe • 28% of Total Final Consumption • Average annual increase by 5% • Coal, district heating and gas dominate (67%) 4 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Coal Oil Products Gas Biomass Electricity District heat
  5. 5. REGIONAL DIFFERENCES 5 Residential energy consumption by fuel type, by regions, TJ Construction of gas pipelines to the North, East and Central Kazakhstan is still under the discussion
  6. 6. HEATING DEGREE DAYS, ºC-days 6 • Heating is a basic need for survival in Kazakhstan • There were no studies to identify how many of households were unable to keep sufficiently warm their home in Kazakhstan NASA (2008) 7410 5472 4900 4735 4560 3795 3712 3364 3092 3001 2982 2370 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
  7. 7. AVERAGE ANNUAL INCOME OF HOUSEHOLD, USD, CURRENT PRICES Committee of statistics (2014) 7715 10813 9984 12376 9163 8664 10593 7881 9821 15368 8464 8790 7353 8024 12650 13221 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 2006 2013 Country average 2006 Country average 2013 7
  8. 8. MAIN PROBLEMS IN THE HEATING SECTOR • Losses of heat in buildings reach 30% • Losses of heat in lines - 17.5% • 32% of housing stock require refurbishment • Average heat consumption in residential buildings – 270kWh/m2  Average in Europe – 100-120kWh/m2 • Absence of metering devices Program of modernization of housing maintenance and utilities (2015) REASONS • Low energy prices • Low interest of homeowners to pay for refurbishment • Low effectiveness of mechanisms for maintenance and refurbishment of buildings UNDP Kazakhstan (2012) 8 56% 22% 14% 8% Losses of heat in buildings draught and ventilation walls windows Floors and ceilings
  9. 9. HEAT PRICES FOR RESIDENTIAL USERS OECD (2012) 9 • Tariffs do not reflect true cost of heat supply • Low price of coal
  10. 10. COAL CONSUMPTION 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 kgoe/pers. Coal consumption in the residential sector per capita Kazakhstan is the third country in the world with the highest coal consumption per capita in the residential sector IEA (2012) REASONS • Cheap fuel • Absence of alternative of supply • Capital intensive stoves Solid fuel fired stove in Kazakhstan (Taraz) 10
  11. 11. FIRST RESULTS OF HOUSEHOLDS SURVEY Primary data of the three households surveys were obtained: • Main interview (including housing conditions and other) • Income and expenditures • Checklist of households composition Total number of surveyed households: 11808 11
  12. 12. FIRST RESULTS OF HOUSEHOLDS SURVEY 12 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Urban Rural Number of households by tenure status Blank Tenant Owner occupied Other Akimat 47% 44% 9% 0% Number of households by type of dwelling Apartment Detached house Part of house Room in apartment 24% 45% 23% 5% 3% Number of households by living space 10-30m2 31-50m2 51-80m2 2% 28% 51% 18% 1% Number of households by the year of construction of dwelling 1910-1950 1951-1970 1971-1990 1991-2010 2011 and later Further results on energy expenditure will be available soon Using the year of construction of dwelling sand the fuels used by dwelling the building types can be disaggregated in the model
  13. 13. TIMES-KAZAKHSTAN MODEL • Developed over the period of 2011-2013 within the project funded by Ministry of education and science of the Republic of Kazakhstan • Is now being updated within the ongoing Project (2015-2016) “Development of Policy Options for Mid- and Long-term Emissions Pathways and Role of Carbon Pricing” funded by PMR 0.000 0.500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 GDP GDP per capita Population • Base year was changed from 2009 to 2011 • Updated energy balances as a sum of 16 regional energy balances were represented • New technologies database was updated • Demand projections were updated, GDP growth is expected at 2% (previous assumption 6%) 13
  14. 14. TIMES 16 REGIONS KAZAKHSTAN MODEL • Was started in 2014 under the project funded by Ministry of education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan. 14 At the final stage, expected to be finished by the end of 2015, trade matrices, user constraints to be fine-tuned, demand projections to be elaborated, calibration to be improved 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 2011 2030 2020 2011 2030 2020 2011 2030 2020 2011 2030 2020 2011 2030 2020 2011 2030 2020 2011 2030 2020 2011 2030 2020 AKM AKT ALM ATY WKZ ZHA KAR KST KZL MAN SKZ PAV NKZ EKZ AST ALC First results- TFC by regions, by fuels, TJ oil products heat electricity gas coal
  15. 15. ASSUMPTIONS ON ENERGY END-USE AND DEMAND DRIVERS AND ELASTICITIES 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Lighting Miscellaneous Electric Energy Residential Other Energy Dishwasher Clothes Washers Residential Cooking Clothes Drying Refrigerators and Freezers 15 Demand Driver Elasticity to the DRIVER Cooling GDP 1 Clothes drying GDP per capita 0.2 Clothes washing GDP per capita 0.2 Dish washing GDP per capita 1 Other electric appliances GDP per capita 1.59 Heating Population 1 Hot water GDP per capita 0.8 Cooking Population 1 Lighting GDP per capita 0.2 Residential other GDP per capita 1 Refrigeration GDP per capita 0.34
  16. 16. RES OF FUEL SUPPLY FOR THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR Natural gas and district heating distribution systems were split to • dense • medium • sparse locations with corresponding investment costs and efficiencies Installation of automatic controllers and heat metering devices was included in the model 16
  17. 17. RES OF RESIDENTIAL SECTOR TECHNOLOGIES “Unment demand” process was added to monitor the gap between theoretical thermal requirement and actual consumption and test different policies aiming at reducing the unmet demand 17 Three additional “virtual” processes: • “Unmet” demand • Savings from new buildings • Refurbishment of buildings
  18. 18. PRELIMINARY RESULTS – TOTAL RESIDENTIAL SECTOR 18 Natural gas rises strongly in the BAU Refurbishment measures are not in the solution. Without any incentive, and in spite of the high thermal needs, costs are higher than other options to come to the solution 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 Natural gas LPG District heating Electricity Diesel Coal Biomass
  19. 19. PRELIMINARY RESULTS – HEATING 19 Even with investment costs defined for constructing additional heat lines district heating is a preferred option. Improved, dense locations distribution system was chosen 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 Energy consumption for heating, PJ LPG Biomass Oil products Electricity District heating Gas Coal
  20. 20. PRELIMINARY RESULTS – WATER HEATING 20 Gas and district heating prevail in the solution for water heating Gasification plan of the Government is still under question 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 Energy consumption for water heating, PJ LPG Biomass Oil products Electricity District heating Gas Coal
  21. 21. CHALLENGES, OPEN ISSUES 21/19 • Low quality and insufficient data on energy  different sources show different data  need to transform fuel-energy balances to IEA format, time consuming • Residential energy consumption survey has not been conducted, data on energy split by end-use is not collected • Few studies on energy demand projections in Kazakhstan • Theoretical thermal requirement is difficult to estimate due to the absence of data by building types, and corresponding U-values • No studies on indoor air pollution and health effects from solid fuels combustion in Kazakhstan • Few studies on fuel poverty in Kazakhstan 21
  22. 22. FUTURE WORK 22/19 • Conduct scenario analysis with TIMES-KZK and TIMES 16RKZ model, compare results • Obtain drivers and elasticities from CGE model for Kazakhstan developed by DIW Econ • Get energy audit reports of buildings and disaggregate buildings by type of building/age in the TIMES-Kazakhstan model • Estimate fuel poverty in Kazakhstan with data from households survey • “energy expenditure greater than 10% of disposable income” • “households with energy expenditures higher than median level and whose income after energy expenditures would be below official poverty line” Hills (2012) • Conduct a study on indoor air pollution and health effects from solid fuel combustion • Internalize external costs of health effects from solid fuel combustion in TIMES-KZK model 22
  23. 23. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Aiymgul Kerimray aiymgul.kerimray@nu.edu.kz 23

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