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Grid Features in the TIMES-based Japan Model

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Grid Features in the TIMES-based Japan Model

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Grid Features in the TIMES-based Japan Model

  1. 1. Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE Grid Features in the TIMES- based Japan Model Hiroshi Hamasaki Research Fellow Economic Research Centre Fujitsu Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan Amit Kanudia Partner KanORS-EMR, Noida, India 72nd Semi-Annual ETSAP Workshop, Zurich, Switzerland
  2. 2. Contents I. Motivations  Quick introduction on original TIMES-based Japan model • Japan Multi-regional Transmission (JMRT) Model  Why are grid-features necessary? II. Grid Features in JMRT III. Simulations: VRE Share and Grid Infrastructure IV. Conclusion Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE1
  3. 3. I. INTRODUCTION Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE2
  4. 4. Overview of JMRT 3 H2 Automobile FCV Fuel Cell Hydrogen Station Energy Storage Copyright 2015 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE Refinery, Steel etc. Brown Coal Renewables Renewables Sewage Thermal /Nuclear Oil Field Refinery Petrol Station
  5. 5. Prefecture Level Resolution (47 Prefectures) Copyright 2015 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE4 • Detailed energy system by prefecture • Reflects regional characteristics Coal LNG Oil Sankey
  6. 6. REs Potential Potential of Renewables Copyright 2015 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE5 Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Geothermal Source: FRI, based on MoE Renewable Potential Map Ely GridRoad • 1km2 mesh of renewable potential data • Each mesh point has unique data including investment, availability factor. • Reflects existing infrastructure, electricity grid and roads.
  7. 7. Potential of Renewables (Geographic Information System) Copyright 2015 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE6 No. Prefecture Lat. Long. Wind speed 1 2 3 Geothermal Offshore Wind Onshore Wind GIS Data is from MOE Potential Survey Enormous onshore wind potential Large center of electricity consumption 1 km mesh
  8. 8. Reflecting Regionality (Using GIS) Copyright 2015 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE7 Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Road Electricity Grid
  9. 9. Effect of Regionality on Renewables Copyright 2015 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE8 Wind Speed Availability Factor Wind Speed (m/s) AF (%) 5.5 15.8% 6 19.7% 6.5 23.5% 7 27.3% 7.5 31.0% 8 34.5% 8.5 37.9% Road Construction Sea Depth Grid Construction Capital More than 20,000V http://www.gsi.go.jp/KIDS/ map-sign-tizukigou-h07- 02-01soudensen.htm
  10. 10. Grid Connections Copyright 2015 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE9 Hz Hz
  11. 11. 世帯数 (●=100世帯) But… Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE Onshore Wind Potential Switching Station e.g. Grid Capacity =0.5GW Original JMRT assumes no grid infra development/expansion within grid region is necessary to transmit electricity within electricity grid region.
  12. 12. II. GRID FEATURES IN JMRT Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE11
  13. 13. Nodes and Grid Capacity Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE12 47 Prefectures 351 Nodes
  14. 14. Allocation of Electricity Demand to Node Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE13 : Node
  15. 15. Allocation of REs Potential to Node Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE14 : Node Renewables are assumed to connect to the nearest node.
  16. 16. III. SIMULATIONS: VRE SHARE AND GRID INFRASTRUCTURE Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE15
  17. 17. Scenarios Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE16 Share of VRE in 2050 (%) 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Grid Expansion Y N
  18. 18. Wind Capacity, VRE 55%, 2050 Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE17 (GW) GE Scenario No GE Scenario 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Y N 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Y N
  19. 19. Wind Capacity, VRE 55%, 2050 Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE18 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Y N
  20. 20. Wind Capacity, VRE 55%, 2050 Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE19 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Y N
  21. 21. Wind Capacity, VRE 55%, 2050 Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Y N Offshore Wind Onshore Wind
  22. 22. Grid Connections Expansion (VRE: 55%) Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE21 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Y N
  23. 23. Additional Grid Capacity in Grid Region Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE22 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Y N GW
  24. 24. In the case of Hokkaido… Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE23
  25. 25. Marginal Electricity Price in 2050 Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE24 JPY/kWh GE Scenario No GE Scenario 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Y N 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Y N *Spring Daytime Tokyo NagoyaOsaka Kyoto Kobe
  26. 26. Share of REs and Marginal Cost Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE25 25% 40% 55% JPY/kWh *Spring Daytime *Year 2050
  27. 27. IV. Conclusions  351 nodes grid model works on PC.  r3.xlarge on AWS  Node level resolution of model reflects reality which is geological distribution of energy consumption and renewable energy potential and identify the burden of grid infrastructure under high VRE share.  Under the current electricity grid infrastructure, high VRE share widen marginal electricity price between nodes.  High electricity price in three major economic regions, Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya.  In Tokyo area, offshore-wind will be introduced to meet VRE share target. Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE26
  28. 28. One more thing… Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE27
  29. 29. Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  30. 30. Allocation of Demand Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE Prefecture Small area category of National Census, 2010 Node Household Office Passenger # of people (Jinko) # of People (Jinko) # of people (Jinko) GIS Nat. Census 29
  31. 31. Grid-Connections Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE30 Hokkaido Chubu Tokyo Tohoku Hokuriku Kyushu Shikoku Chugoku Kansai

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