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Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model

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Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model

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Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE
Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-
featured Japan TIMES model
Hiroshi Hamasaki
Senior Research Fellow
Economic Research Centre
Fujitsu Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan
IEA-ETSAP Semi-Annual Workshop, Stuttgart, Germany
Contents
I. Motivations
II. Methodologies: Grid Featured TIMES-based Model
III. Simulations
IV. Role of Grid Expansion
V. Node Resolution is good, but…
VI. Conclusion
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE
VRE: Variable Renewable Energy Share
1
I. Motivations
 At COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015, Parties to the UNFCCC
reached a landmark agreement, the Paris Agreement, to combat climate
change.
 The Paris Agreement aims to stabilise global average temperature well
below 2.0 degree
 Japan has a long term carbon mitigation target, 80% by 2050.
 To achieve target, renewable energy, especially VRE (Variable Renewable
Energy), is expected to paly a major role.
 Existing energy infrastructure, especially electricity grid, has not been built
to absorb high VRE share.
 In this research, we have built TIMES-based Japan model which include
grid features and GIS-based renewable energy potential information to
identify the importance of grid capacity expansion and electricity storage
under high carbon mitigation constraints.
 But…node resolution simulation requires in-depth understanding on energy
issue from system point of view.
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE2
II. METHODOLOGIES:
GRID-FEATURED TIMES-
BASED JAPAN MODEL
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE3
electricity
Overview of JMRT
H2
Automobile
FCV
Fuel Cell
Hydrogen Station
Energy
Storage
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE
Refinery, Steel etc.
Brown Coal
Renewables
Renewables
Sewage
Thermal
/Nuclear
Oil Field Refinery Petrol
Station
oil hydrogen heat
gas
4
REs Potential
Potential of Renewables
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE
Offshore Wind
Onshore Wind
Geothermal
Source: FRI, based on MoE Renewable
Potential Map
Ely GridRoad
• 1km2
mesh of renewable potential
data
• Each mesh point has unique data
including investment, availability
factor.
• Reflects existing infrastructure,
electricity grid and roads.
5

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Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model

  • 1. Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid- featured Japan TIMES model Hiroshi Hamasaki Senior Research Fellow Economic Research Centre Fujitsu Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan IEA-ETSAP Semi-Annual Workshop, Stuttgart, Germany
  • 2. Contents I. Motivations II. Methodologies: Grid Featured TIMES-based Model III. Simulations IV. Role of Grid Expansion V. Node Resolution is good, but… VI. Conclusion Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE VRE: Variable Renewable Energy Share 1
  • 3. I. Motivations  At COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015, Parties to the UNFCCC reached a landmark agreement, the Paris Agreement, to combat climate change.  The Paris Agreement aims to stabilise global average temperature well below 2.0 degree  Japan has a long term carbon mitigation target, 80% by 2050.  To achieve target, renewable energy, especially VRE (Variable Renewable Energy), is expected to paly a major role.  Existing energy infrastructure, especially electricity grid, has not been built to absorb high VRE share.  In this research, we have built TIMES-based Japan model which include grid features and GIS-based renewable energy potential information to identify the importance of grid capacity expansion and electricity storage under high carbon mitigation constraints.  But…node resolution simulation requires in-depth understanding on energy issue from system point of view. Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE2
  • 4. II. METHODOLOGIES: GRID-FEATURED TIMES- BASED JAPAN MODEL Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE3
  • 5. electricity Overview of JMRT H2 Automobile FCV Fuel Cell Hydrogen Station Energy Storage Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE Refinery, Steel etc. Brown Coal Renewables Renewables Sewage Thermal /Nuclear Oil Field Refinery Petrol Station oil hydrogen heat gas 4
  • 6. REs Potential Potential of Renewables Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Geothermal Source: FRI, based on MoE Renewable Potential Map Ely GridRoad • 1km2 mesh of renewable potential data • Each mesh point has unique data including investment, availability factor. • Reflects existing infrastructure, electricity grid and roads. 5
  • 7. Potential of Renewables (Geographic Information System) Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE No. Lat. Lon. Wind speed AF Capital Cost O&M 1 2 3 Geothermal Offshore Wind Onshore Wind GIS Data is from MOE Potential Survey Enormous onshore wind potential Large center of electricity consumption 1 km mesh 6
  • 8. Shifts to De-centralised Energy System Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE Construction Period 10 years Construction Period 1 years Capacity 1,000kWNote: size of circle represents the capacity of PowerStation Construction Period 20 years Capacity 1GW 7
  • 9. Shift to Node Level Resolutions Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE 47 Prefectures 351 Nodes 8 450 Grids&
  • 10. Electricity Demand by Node Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE9 : Node
  • 11. Renewable Potential by Node Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE : Node 10
  • 12. Population Change from 2010 till 2050 Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE Source: National Land Numerical Information download service, http://nlftp.mlit.go.jp/ksj-e/index.html 100 = 2010 Data 11 : Node
  • 13. 16 Time Slices Spring Summer Autumn Winter April-June July- September October- December January- March R S F W Morning 7:00-10:00 M RM SM FM WM Day 10:00-21:00 D RD SD FD WD Night 21:00-24:00 E RE SE FE WE Evening 24:00-7:00 N RN SN FN WN Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE12
  • 14. III. Scenarios  VRE share is 50% in 2050  This simulations try to identify following issues.  Role of Grid Expansion • How much grid expansion will be needed to achieve the target? • Impacts of no grid expansion on electricity price and geological location of VRE Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE Electricity Grid Expansion Yes No 13
  • 15. IV. ROLE OF GRID EXPANSION Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE14
  • 16. Wind Turbine Capacity (GW), 2050 Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE With Grid ExpansionWithout Grid Expansion 15 Offshore Wind Onshore Wind
  • 17. Electricity Price by TS and Node, 2050 Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE16 (JPY/kWh) 5 15
  • 18. Grid Connection Capacity, 2050 Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE GW 17 Without Grid Expansion With Grid Expansion
  • 19. Utilisation of Electricity Grid in Hokkaido Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE18 Electricity Grid Expansion Yes No
  • 20. Utilisation of Electricity Grid in Hokkaido Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE19 Electricity Grid Expansion Yes No
  • 21. Utilisation of Electricity Grid in Tohoku Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE20 Electricity Grid Expansion Yes No
  • 22. Utilisation of Electricity Grid in Tohoku Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE21 Electricity Grid Expansion Yes No
  • 23. V. NODE RESOLUTION IS GOOD BUT… Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE22
  • 24. Too Complex to Understand Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE23 *https://chiefexecutive.net/ai- separating-artificial-from- intelligent/ Source:* 8MB/sec 1KB/sec Source: Thomas, 2014, https://blogs.sas.com/content/sascom/2014/04 /25/using-virtual-reality-understand-big-data/ 1/8,000
  • 25. When you come to Japan Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE24 Power Station Chart Scenario Map
  • 26. V. Conclusions  Node level resolution of model reflects reality which is geological distribution of energy consumption and renewable energy potential and identify the burden of grid infrastructure under high VRE share.  4016electrity prices in one year  Suitable for carbon-free hydrogen and electricity grid storage project.  And EV project e,g, charging pattern management and identify grid restriction to popularize EV.  To make the most use of renewable energy potential, huge grid connections from Hokkaido to Tokyo via Tohoku is necessary to achieve 80% carbon mitigation target by 2050.  No grid connection expansion results in electricity price inequality by node.  Node level resolution simulation results require in-depth knowledge of energy from system views. Non-expert cannot understand the simulation results of node-level model. Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE25
  • 27. Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE26
  • 28. Electricity Price, 2050 Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE (JPY/kWh) Note: WN (Winter-Night) With Grid ExpansionWithout Grid Expansion 27
  • 29. 10 Grids and Grid Connections Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE 0.6GW 6GW 0.9GW 0.3GW 5.57GW 1.4GW 16.66GW 5.57GW 5.57GW 2.4GW 28
  • 30. Deck.gl Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE29