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Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE
Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-
featured Japan TIMES model
Hirosh...
Contents
I. Motivations
II. Methodologies: Grid Featured TIMES-based Model
III. Simulations
IV. Role of Grid Expansion
V. ...
I. Motivations
 At COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015, Parties to the UNFCCC
reached a landmark agreement, the Paris Ag...
II. METHODOLOGIES:
GRID-FEATURED TIMES-
BASED JAPAN MODEL
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE3
electricity
Overview of JMRT
H2
Automobile
FCV
Fuel Cell
Hydrogen Station
Energy
Storage
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH IN...
REs Potential
Potential of Renewables
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE
Offshore Wind
Onshore Wind
Geothermal
Sourc...
Potential of Renewables
(Geographic Information System)
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE
No. Lat. Lon.
Wind
speed
...
Shifts to De-centralised Energy System
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE
Construction
Period
10 years
Construction
...
Shift to Node Level Resolutions
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE
47
Prefectures
351
Nodes
8
450
Grids&
Electricity Demand by Node
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE9
: Node
Renewable Potential by Node
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE
: Node
10
Population Change from 2010 till 2050
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE
Source: National Land Numerical Information...
16 Time Slices
Spring Summer Autumn Winter
April-June
July-
September
October-
December
January-
March
R S F W
Morning 7:0...
III. Scenarios
 VRE share is 50% in 2050
 This simulations try to identify following issues.
 Role of Grid Expansion
• ...
IV. ROLE OF GRID EXPANSION
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE14
Wind Turbine Capacity (GW), 2050
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE
With Grid ExpansionWithout Grid Expansion
15
Off...
Electricity Price by TS and Node, 2050
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE16
(JPY/kWh)
5 15
Grid Connection Capacity, 2050
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE
GW
17
Without Grid Expansion
With Grid Expansion
Utilisation of Electricity Grid in Hokkaido
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE18
Electricity Grid
Expansion
Yes No
Utilisation of Electricity Grid in Hokkaido
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE19
Electricity Grid
Expansion
Yes No
Utilisation of Electricity Grid in Tohoku
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE20
Electricity Grid
Expansion
Yes No
Utilisation of Electricity Grid in Tohoku
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE21
Electricity Grid
Expansion
Yes No
V. NODE RESOLUTION IS
GOOD
BUT…
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE22
Too Complex to Understand
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE23
*https://chiefexecutive.net/ai-
separating-artificial...
When you come to Japan
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE24
Power
Station
Chart
Scenario
Map
V. Conclusions
 Node level resolution of model reflects reality which is
geological distribution of energy consumption an...
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE26
Electricity Price, 2050
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE
(JPY/kWh)
Note: WN (Winter-Night)
With Grid ExpansionWith...
10 Grids and Grid Connections
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE
0.6GW
6GW
0.9GW
0.3GW
5.57GW
1.4GW
16.66GW
5.57GW
5...
Deck.gl
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE29
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Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 1 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 2 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 3 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 4 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 5 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 6 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 7 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 8 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 9 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 10 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 11 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 12 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 13 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 14 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 15 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 16 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 17 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 18 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 19 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 20 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 21 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 22 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 23 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 24 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 25 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 26 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 27 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 28 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 29 Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model Slide 30
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Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model

  1. 1. Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid- featured Japan TIMES model Hiroshi Hamasaki Senior Research Fellow Economic Research Centre Fujitsu Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan IEA-ETSAP Semi-Annual Workshop, Stuttgart, Germany
  2. 2. Contents I. Motivations II. Methodologies: Grid Featured TIMES-based Model III. Simulations IV. Role of Grid Expansion V. Node Resolution is good, but… VI. Conclusion Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE VRE: Variable Renewable Energy Share 1
  3. 3. I. Motivations  At COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015, Parties to the UNFCCC reached a landmark agreement, the Paris Agreement, to combat climate change.  The Paris Agreement aims to stabilise global average temperature well below 2.0 degree  Japan has a long term carbon mitigation target, 80% by 2050.  To achieve target, renewable energy, especially VRE (Variable Renewable Energy), is expected to paly a major role.  Existing energy infrastructure, especially electricity grid, has not been built to absorb high VRE share.  In this research, we have built TIMES-based Japan model which include grid features and GIS-based renewable energy potential information to identify the importance of grid capacity expansion and electricity storage under high carbon mitigation constraints.  But…node resolution simulation requires in-depth understanding on energy issue from system point of view. Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE2
  4. 4. II. METHODOLOGIES: GRID-FEATURED TIMES- BASED JAPAN MODEL Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE3
  5. 5. electricity Overview of JMRT H2 Automobile FCV Fuel Cell Hydrogen Station Energy Storage Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE Refinery, Steel etc. Brown Coal Renewables Renewables Sewage Thermal /Nuclear Oil Field Refinery Petrol Station oil hydrogen heat gas 4
  6. 6. REs Potential Potential of Renewables Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Geothermal Source: FRI, based on MoE Renewable Potential Map Ely GridRoad • 1km2 mesh of renewable potential data • Each mesh point has unique data including investment, availability factor. • Reflects existing infrastructure, electricity grid and roads. 5
  7. 7. Potential of Renewables (Geographic Information System) Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE No. Lat. Lon. Wind speed AF Capital Cost O&M 1 2 3 Geothermal Offshore Wind Onshore Wind GIS Data is from MOE Potential Survey Enormous onshore wind potential Large center of electricity consumption 1 km mesh 6
  8. 8. Shifts to De-centralised Energy System Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE Construction Period 10 years Construction Period 1 years Capacity 1,000kWNote: size of circle represents the capacity of PowerStation Construction Period 20 years Capacity 1GW 7
  9. 9. Shift to Node Level Resolutions Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE 47 Prefectures 351 Nodes 8 450 Grids&
  10. 10. Electricity Demand by Node Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE9 : Node
  11. 11. Renewable Potential by Node Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE : Node 10
  12. 12. Population Change from 2010 till 2050 Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE Source: National Land Numerical Information download service, http://nlftp.mlit.go.jp/ksj-e/index.html 100 = 2010 Data 11 : Node
  13. 13. 16 Time Slices Spring Summer Autumn Winter April-June July- September October- December January- March R S F W Morning 7:00-10:00 M RM SM FM WM Day 10:00-21:00 D RD SD FD WD Night 21:00-24:00 E RE SE FE WE Evening 24:00-7:00 N RN SN FN WN Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE12
  14. 14. III. Scenarios  VRE share is 50% in 2050  This simulations try to identify following issues.  Role of Grid Expansion • How much grid expansion will be needed to achieve the target? • Impacts of no grid expansion on electricity price and geological location of VRE Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE Electricity Grid Expansion Yes No 13
  15. 15. IV. ROLE OF GRID EXPANSION Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE14
  16. 16. Wind Turbine Capacity (GW), 2050 Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE With Grid ExpansionWithout Grid Expansion 15 Offshore Wind Onshore Wind
  17. 17. Electricity Price by TS and Node, 2050 Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE16 (JPY/kWh) 5 15
  18. 18. Grid Connection Capacity, 2050 Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE GW 17 Without Grid Expansion With Grid Expansion
  19. 19. Utilisation of Electricity Grid in Hokkaido Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE18 Electricity Grid Expansion Yes No
  20. 20. Utilisation of Electricity Grid in Hokkaido Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE19 Electricity Grid Expansion Yes No
  21. 21. Utilisation of Electricity Grid in Tohoku Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE20 Electricity Grid Expansion Yes No
  22. 22. Utilisation of Electricity Grid in Tohoku Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE21 Electricity Grid Expansion Yes No
  23. 23. V. NODE RESOLUTION IS GOOD BUT… Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE22
  24. 24. Too Complex to Understand Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE23 *https://chiefexecutive.net/ai- separating-artificial-from- intelligent/ Source:* 8MB/sec 1KB/sec Source: Thomas, 2014, https://blogs.sas.com/content/sascom/2014/04 /25/using-virtual-reality-understand-big-data/ 1/8,000
  25. 25. When you come to Japan Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE24 Power Station Chart Scenario Map
  26. 26. V. Conclusions  Node level resolution of model reflects reality which is geological distribution of energy consumption and renewable energy potential and identify the burden of grid infrastructure under high VRE share.  4016electrity prices in one year  Suitable for carbon-free hydrogen and electricity grid storage project.  And EV project e,g, charging pattern management and identify grid restriction to popularize EV.  To make the most use of renewable energy potential, huge grid connections from Hokkaido to Tokyo via Tohoku is necessary to achieve 80% carbon mitigation target by 2050.  No grid connection expansion results in electricity price inequality by node.  Node level resolution simulation results require in-depth knowledge of energy from system views. Non-expert cannot understand the simulation results of node-level model. Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE25
  27. 27. Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE26
  28. 28. Electricity Price, 2050 Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE (JPY/kWh) Note: WN (Winter-Night) With Grid ExpansionWithout Grid Expansion 27
  29. 29. 10 Grids and Grid Connections Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE 0.6GW 6GW 0.9GW 0.3GW 5.57GW 1.4GW 16.66GW 5.57GW 5.57GW 2.4GW 28
  30. 30. Deck.gl Copyright 2018 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE29

Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model

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