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IER
Evaluation of the role of
energy storages in
Europe with TIMES
PanEU
ETSAP Workshop Madrid
Markus Blesl, Julia Welsch
...
17.11.2016 2
Outline
Introduction
ESTMAP storage database – potentials
1
2
3
4
Scenario analysis
Conclusions and outlook
17.11.2016 3
Introduction
Motivation:
• Political induced increase of share of renewables in the EU-28
• Increasingly feed...
17.11.2016 4
Energy system model TIMES PanEU
• Technology oriented bottom-up partial equilibrium model
• 30 region model (...
17.11.2016 5
ESTMAP database
Storage potential for Europe
Country Potential [GWh]
Connecting
Cost
€
𝒌𝑾
Country Potential [...
17.11.2016 6
Scenario definition
Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project
Scenario assumptions
2030 2050
Base MorePV
Batt...
17.11.2016 7
Electricity production by energy carrier in Europe
Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project
• Increased elec...
17.11.2016 8
Capacities in Europe
Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project
• Increase of
capacities
corresponding to the
...
17.11.2016 9
Electricity storages in Europe
Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project
• Investment in
additional electrici...
17.11.2016 10
Electricity storages in Europe
Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project
3400
3500
3600
3700
3800
3900
4000
...
17.11.2016 11
Electricity trade in Europe
Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300...
17.11.2016 12
Conclusions and outlook
• For all three scenarios an increased electricity demand in the EU-28 until the yea...
E-Mail
Telefon +49 (0) 711 685-
Universität Stuttgart
Energiewirtschaft und Systemtechnische Analyse (SAM)
PD Dr.-Ing. Mar...
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Evaluation of the role of energy storages in Europe with TIMES PanEU

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Evaluation of the role of energy storages in Europe with TIMES PanEU

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Evaluation of the role of energy storages in Europe with TIMES PanEU

  1. 1. IER Evaluation of the role of energy storages in Europe with TIMES PanEU ETSAP Workshop Madrid Markus Blesl, Julia Welsch Markus Blesl
  2. 2. 17.11.2016 2 Outline Introduction ESTMAP storage database – potentials 1 2 3 4 Scenario analysis Conclusions and outlook
  3. 3. 17.11.2016 3 Introduction Motivation: • Political induced increase of share of renewables in the EU-28 • Increasingly feed in of electricity from variable renewables (wind and pv) • Flexible options and especially Storages are needed ESTMAP: • Including ESTMAP storage database in TIMES models • Scenario analysis
  4. 4. 17.11.2016 4 Energy system model TIMES PanEU • Technology oriented bottom-up partial equilibrium model • 30 region model (EU 28, No, CH, IS) • Energy system model • SUPPLY: reserves, resources, exploration and conversion • Country specific renewable potential and availability • Electricity: public electricity plants, CHP plants and heating plants • Residential and Commercial: End use technologies (space and water heating, space cooling and others) • Industry: Energy intensive industry (Iron and steel, aluminum copper ammonia and chlorine, cement, glass, lime, pulp and paper), food, other industries, autoproducer and boilers • Transport: Different transport modes (cars, buses, motorcycles, trucks, passenger trains, freight trains), aviation and navigation • Country specific differences for characterization of new conversion and end-use technologies • Time horizon 2010 - 2050 • GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 /Others pollutants: SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, PM2.5, PM10
  5. 5. 17.11.2016 5 ESTMAP database Storage potential for Europe Country Potential [GWh] Connecting Cost € 𝒌𝑾 Country Potential [GWh] Connecting Cost € 𝒌𝑾 AT 409 6,2 IE 30 5,9 UK 1.702 8,4 IT 1.626 6,7 BG 378 6,9 NO 6.616 23,5 CY 51 5,7 PL 47 5 CZ 183 6,5 PT 1.229 4,4 DE 297 6 SE 1.098 11,6 FI 104 8 SI 18 5,6 FR 1.913 5,2 HR 291 7,5 GR 288 11,6 HU 3 5,5 Country Potential [GWh] Connecting Cost € 𝒌𝑾 Country Potential [GWh] Connecting Cost € 𝒌𝑾 AT 16 6,2 UK 85 4 FR 49 2,9 IT 86 7,7 CZ 3 6 NO 212 11,7 DE 5 15,2 PT 28 5,6 One existing reservoir Two existing reservoirs
  6. 6. 17.11.2016 6 Scenario definition Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project Scenario assumptions 2030 2050 Base MorePV Battery Cost Base MorePV Battery Cost GHG reduction in the EU-28 (vs. 1990) 40 % 90 % Share of renewables at electricity consumption in the EU-28 30 % 80 % Share of renewables at gross final energy consumption in the EU-28 27 % 75 % PV Capacity in Europe 120 GW 180 GW 120 GW 364 GW 546 GW 364 GW
  7. 7. 17.11.2016 7 Electricity production by energy carrier in Europe Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project • Increased electricity demand in the EU-28 until the year 2050 • Electrification of the energy system until the year 2050 (achieve GHG emission targets) • Electrification enables integration of fluctuating renewable energies • Decrease in fossil fuel based power production and an increase in renewable energy generation -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 Statistics Base Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost 20102015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity storage (excl. pump storage) Net Imports Others / Waste non- ren. Other Renewables Biomass / Waste ren. Solar Wind offshore Wind onshore Hydro (incl. pump storage) Nuclear Gas CCS Gas w/o CCS Oil Lignite CCS Lignite w/o CCS Coal CCS Coal w/o CCS Net electricity TWh
  8. 8. 17.11.2016 8 Capacities in Europe Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project • Increase of capacities corresponding to the generation in all 3 scenarios 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Statistics Base Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity storage (excl. pump storage) Others / Waste non-ren. Other Renewables Biomass / Waste ren. Solar Wind Hydro incl. pump storage Nuclear Natural gas Oil Lignite Coal Capacity GW
  9. 9. 17.11.2016 9 Electricity storages in Europe Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project • Investment in additional electricity storage capacities from the year 2030 onwards 0 20 40 60 80 100 Statistics Base Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Battery stationary Redox Flow Battery stationary Lead Acid Battery stationary Lithium Ion CAES adiabatic cavern CAES adiabatic tank CAES diabatic cavern Pump Storage Storage input capacity GW 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Statistics Base Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Battery stationary Redox Flow Battery stationary Lead Acid Battery stationary Lithium Ion CAES adiabatic cavern CAES adiabatic tank CAES diabatic cavern Pump Storage Storage output capacity GW
  10. 10. 17.11.2016 10 Electricity storages in Europe Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project 3400 3500 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000 Statistics Base Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Battery stationary Redox Flow Battery stationary Lead Acid Battery stationary Lithium Ion CAES adiabatic cavern CAES adiabatic tank CAES diabatic cavern Pump Storage Storage content GWh
  11. 11. 17.11.2016 11 Electricity trade in Europe Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 Base Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost Base MorePV BatteryCost 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Electricitynetimports[TWh] UK SK SI SE RO PT PL NO NL MT LV LU LT IT IE HU GR FR FI ES EE DK DE CZ CY CH BG BE AT
  12. 12. 17.11.2016 12 Conclusions and outlook • For all three scenarios an increased electricity demand in the EU-28 until the year 2050 can be observed • This electrification of the overall energy system contributes to achieving the GHG emission targets as set in the EU roadmaps and reflects the increasing share of fluctuating renewable energy sources (wind and PV) in the energy system • Investment in additional electricity storage capacities from the year 2030 onwards are needed beside of the use of other flexibility options in the energy system. • First investments in the European model are in diabatic CAES and battery storages and in the subsequent periods in pump storage und adiabatic CAES • The cost reduction of adiabatic CAES until the year 2050 leads to an economic advantage of this storage technology towards the end of the model horizon • The adiabatic CAES contributes to the reduction of the GHG emissions in Europe compared to the diabetic storage, which requires natural gas as an input to store electricity • But the additional flexibility options might change the picture.
  13. 13. E-Mail Telefon +49 (0) 711 685- Universität Stuttgart Energiewirtschaft und Systemtechnische Analyse (SAM) PD Dr.-Ing. Markus Blesl 87 865 Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER) Markus.Blesl@ier.uni-stuttgart.de Thank you for your attention !

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