ETSAP R&D Proposals

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Analytics Multi-case Comparison XLSTIMES-Starter Phase II

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ETSAP R&D Proposals

  1. 1. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics ETSAP R&D Proposals Analytics Multi-case Comparison XLS TIMES-Starter Phase II Gary Goldstein, DecisionWare ETSAP Semi-annual Workshop October 22-23, 2015 Sophia-Antipolis, France
  2. 2. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics Analytics Multi-case Comparison XLS 2 ETSAP R&D - AnalyticsXLS
  3. 3. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics Analytics XLS Overview 3 3  Excel workbook “linked” to VBE means of the UpdateXLS feature  Standards tables have scenario, 1-row qualifier with total, & periods [though any VBE can be dumped & supplemental calculations done as well]  Provides dynamic comparison of 4 (to 6) model runs  Core features:  Stacked bar charts of Reference (1st) scenario blow-up, side-by-side of comparison scenarios, difference from Reference  1st/last period shares with pie charts, and growth/total over model horizon  Metrics sheet with main indicators over the horizon  Handles multi-region details via a aggregate and separate region specific workbooks  Serves as specification mechanism for VedaViz preparation ETSAP R&D - AnalyticsXLS
  4. 4. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics Analytics XLS VEDA_Dump Sheet 4 4 The VEDA_Dump sheets contain the VBE table data that re automatically updated using the VBE Update XLS function. The AXLS manages these sheets by adding and deleting scenarios as needed and ensuring that every scenario data block has the full number or rows even if the scenario does not generate results for that row. ETSAP R&D - AnalyticsXLS
  5. 5. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics Analytics XLS Scenario Master Control Sheet 5 5 The Scenario control sheet is used to select the scenarios to be compared and determine their order of graphing, as well as managing the list of scenarios in the workbook (to keep them aligned with those in VBE). It also presents the System Cost values for all scenarios. ETSAP R&D - AnalyticsXLS
  6. 6. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics Analytics XLS Case Data & Diff Blocks & Graphs 6 6 Graphing sheet displaying the scenario data, Reference (1st) detail graph, 4- case comparison graphs, difference from the Reference (1st) scenario data, and trends. ETSAP R&D - AnalyticsXLS
  7. 7. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics Analytics XLS Shares, Diff, Growth & Change Block 7 7 This portion of each graphing sheet provides relative information on first and last period shares, difference, growth and cumulative amount over the model horizon. It also provides relative changes between the Reference and other scenarios. ETSAP R&D - AnalyticsXLS
  8. 8. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics Analytics XLS Metrics Sheet 8 8 The Metrics presents aggregated results for key model metrics, such as System Cost, Primary Energy, Final Energy, Electricity Generation, New Power Plant Builds, Investment in Supply Technologies and Demand devices, Fuel expenditures, Emissions, etc. It also contains an archive section where summary results from every scenario can be stored. ETSAP R&D - AnalyticsXLS
  9. 9. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter Model Phase II 9 ETSAP R&D - AnalyticsXLS
  10. 10. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter Phase II Status 10 10 ETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II  Initial Prototype operational  Demonstrates the Starter concept & mechanisms  Model runs reasonably but needs fine-tuning  VBE & Analytics graphing workbook in place  Debuted (with some rough edges) at the IEA- ERI training in China last week [prompting this late submission to the ExCo]
  11. 11. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter IEA Feedback from ERI Workshop 11 11 ETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II "The TIMES-Starter seems to be a valuable tool for someone with no TIMES experience that wishes to set up a new model, the structure it provides is certainly a step forward compared to what is currently available. We very much appreciate the development of such a starter model for capacity-building purposes, given the potential shown at the ERI training in Beijing, and look forward to collaborate further with ETSAP in possible future occasions on capacity-building for energy systems modelling. Furthermore, we will be happy to test future versions of the TIMES-Starter model to provide comments and data where possible."
  12. 12. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter Organization* & Dependencies 12 12 Energy Balance [EB_<cnty>(yr)] Existing & Calibration [BY-<sect>] New Technologies [NT-<sect>] Demand Projection [Demand-REF] Supply [SUP] Reference Guidance [UC-<sect>] Industry Controls [IND-*] * All workbooks to be loaded into ANSWER start with ATx_<country>*, with x=null for ver1 and “2” for ver2 ANSWER “Smart” XLS format ETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II
  13. 13. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter Core Templates & Dependency Table 13 13 ETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II
  14. 14. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter Smart Workbooks Structure 14 [1] For v1 templates the Commodities, Process and UC declarations are provided on the Items sheet. [2] For the v1 templates data is loaded from the TS&TID Data sheet for standard processes and UCs, and from separate TOP/TID/TS_Data sheets for Supply. TIMES-Starter Model Overview Worksheet Description ANSv6.8/9-Home ANSWER-TIMES template sheet that is used to add new ANSWER-TIMES smart sheet to the current workbook, or turn an existing XLS/XLSM into a "smart" workbook. [Note that the v1 workbooks all begin with AT_ and the v2 workbooks with AT2_.] SETUP Mapping of EPA-US9r/other names to TIMES TIMES-Starter names and removal of unwanted items, emission factors, and USD price conversion factors. The Setup sheet links to the EB workbook for the list of commodities and emission rates. EB Information for the Energy Balance workbook for the sector. [BYs only] Calibration The calculation sheet where the energy balance is apportioned and the initial year technology stock established for each sector. [BYs only] REGIONS Description of Regions for the Database where this instance of the New Techs will be used. [Only active on Supply template.] Commodities Energy carriers, emissions, materials are defined by their name, description, units and set memberships to be used in the rest of the sheets. In V1 templates commodity groups may also be declared. These are in turn controlled by the SETUP sheet, in most cases. [Some v1 templates have an ITEMS sheet that contains both commodity and process declarations.] Processes Process technologies are defined by their name, description, units and set memberships to be used in the rest of the sheets. These are in turn controlled by the SETUP sheet, in most cases. [Some V1 templates have an ITEMS sheet that contains both commodity and process declarations.] CommData A sheet with the data for commodities in the sector (mostly used for mapping sector emissions to overall emissions and providing demand levels and load timings. ProcData_<nature> One or more sheets with the data for all technologies in the sector. [Note that the V1 templates have separate TID & TS sheets.] EPA/ETSAP/PIEM/KIS R/EC/other_<sheet> Declaration and data sheets from the EPA-US9r (and perhaps other sources including but not limited to IEA, ETSAP eTech-DS/Pak-IEM/Kuwait-RE/Energy Community-EE databases) providing the source values for the technology options. ETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II
  15. 15. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter MARKAL US9r to TIMES 15 TIMES-Starter Model OverviewETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II
  16. 16. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter Energy Balance Sheet 16 TIMES-Starter Model Overview Workbook also has region name, periods, timeslices, cost conversion, & emission factors ETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II
  17. 17. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter Residential Naming & Heating Devices 17 TIMES-Starter Model OverviewETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II
  18. 18. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter RSD&COM EB & Calibration Sheets 18 TIMES-Starter Model OverviewETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II
  19. 19. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter Residential Technology Loadsheet 19 TIMES-Starter Model OverviewETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II
  20. 20. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter REF Guidance for Fuels & Technologies 20 TIMES-Starter Model OverviewETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II
  21. 21. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter ANSWER RES for Electricity 21 TIMES-Starter Model OverviewETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II
  22. 22. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter VBE Sets 22 TIMES-Starter Model OverviewETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II
  23. 23. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter VBE Tables & Cubes 23 TIMES-Starter Model OverviewETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II
  24. 24. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter Analytics Graphing Workbook 24 TIMES-Starter Model OverviewETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II Main multi-case comparison graphing worksheets allow interactive selection of which cases to compare with 4-case stacked bar chart, 3-case diff, 1st/last period trend blocks, and model horizon metrics
  25. 25. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter Adapting for New Application 25 TIMES-Starter Model Overview  Plug in their energy balance  Tailor the RES to their situation by eliminating and perhaps adding commodities/process not of interest/relevant or missing  Adjust the timeslices (setup with 4-seasons, 3 time-of-days)  Run and refine the calibration  Adjust their demand drivers  Pick the future technologies to be allowed, and adjust $/eff/when if necessary  Adjust the Reference guidance mechanisms (fuel switching, rate of new technology penetration controls, device types (e.g., small large car))  Introduce all known coming new builds  Introduce all future policies on the books  Introduce all physical limits on resources (e.g., refine the supply curves, set renewable potentials)  Run and refine the Reference scenario  Introduce any force operate lower bounds needed  Do any necessary refining to the VBE SnT (and Analytics workbook)  Set the values for the standard policy scenarios provided and run  Refine model behavior  To introduce another region (in principle ready – to be further tested)  “REPLICATE” the EB/BY templates, changing the file name to reflect the NewRegion  In the NewRegion EB change the region name  Add the regions to the SUP/NT templates ETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II
  26. 26. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter Moving from Prototype to Production 26ETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II  Complete clean-up of the initial TIMES-Starter templates  Expand VBE & the AXLS for demand sector details  Provide key technologies not found in US9r (e.g., hydro plants (dam, RoR, pump stg), CHP, HPLs, motorcycles, biomass cooker)  Get missing pieces in:  Industry & Refinery examples  Load Calibration workbook  Hurdle rate controls  Enhance version 2 of the ANSWER-TIMES Smart Excel spreadsheets, and document {carried over from Phase I without requiring additional funding}  Complete the TIMES-Starter Guidance manual  Test creating a 2-region model  Adjust the ANSWER-TIMES 3-days training syllabus & presentation material to cover TIMES foundations, using ANSWER, learning the TIMES-Starter model, sample policy analysis, and roadmap for adapting  Noble-Soft Systems believes the importance of the Starter Model concept to ETSAP is such that – if the ExCo agrees – it is willing to transfer the €7,000 already approved for enhancing the ANSWER-TIMES Getting Started Manual to TIMES Starter Model Phase II, thus reducing to €15,650 the additional funding requested. 26
  27. 27. © OECD/IEA 2011TIMES Model Management Systems Basics TIMES-Starter Total Project Budget Estimate 27 TIMES-Starter Model OverviewETSAP R&D – TIMES-Starter Phase II

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