Energy sector contribution to climate action

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Energysectorcontribution to climateaction - The case of Latin America

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Energy sector contribution to climate action

  1. 1. Sébastien POSTIC, Sandrine SELOSSE, Nadia MAÏZI MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées MINES ParisTech Energy sector contribution to climate action - The case of Latin America October 22nd, 2015 ETSAP Workshop, Sophia-Antipolis
  2. 2. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France2/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i Latin America: small yet growing emissions 450 Millions hab. GDP 2012: 5,000 G$ 6% 8% 9% gobal GHG emissions +57% in 40 years CC cost : 1.5% to 5% of GDP (Sources : CIA World Factbook, GIEC, CEPAL)
  3. 3. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France3/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i Latin America: small yet growing emissions 450 Millions hab. GDP 2012: 5,000 G$ 6% 8% 9% gobal GHG emissions +57% in 40 years CC cost : 1.5% to 5% of GDP (Sources : CIA World Factbook, GIEC, CEPAL)
  4. 4. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France4/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i Energy sector is transforming fast Global average: 14% 5% of world’s consumption 2009 : 30 millions w/o electricity 2001-2010: +32% TPES (Sources : AIE, European Commission, CIER, GIEC) UE: 80% X 2 in 40 years Final consumption 2012: 460Mtoe Average hydro share: 60% Energy share in regional emisisons: 20%
  5. 5. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France5/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i Prospective tool: TIMES-ALyC (1)
  6. 6. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France6/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i - Cumulative potentials 2010-2050 - Including (right) or not (left) oil/solar/biomass Porspective tool: TIMES-ALyC (2) T-ALyC’s primary energy potentials (EJ)
  7. 7. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France7/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i National climate pledges: NAMAs -38 % GHG in 2020 compared to BAU -20 % GHG in 2020 compared to 2007 BAU Biofuel support, energy efficiency, waste reduction, wind energy, national parks... 77 % renewable electricity in 2020 20 % biofuels in 2020 Afforestation minimum 44 MtCO2eq 82 % oil in primary energy 80 % hydroelectricity 90 % de renewable electricity 0 % net deforestation by 2021 33 % renewables in final energy 15 % renewable electricity 30 % Waste-to-Energy Non-exhaustive review based on National Communications to the UNFCCC
  8. 8. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France8/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i National climate pledges: INDCs -43 % GHG in 2020 below 2005 levels Reductions below BAU Non AFOLU: -30%/-45% CO2 intens. AFOLU: 1.5 MtCO2eq removal Non-exhaustive review based on National INDC submissions to the UNFCCC Reductions below BAU Unilateral: -15% GHG Conditional: -30% GHG Forestry: store 13-19 PGCO2/yr Energy: -25%/-40% CO2 intensity Agric.:-33%/-40% N2O,CH4 intens. Reductions below BAU Unilateral: -20% GHG Conditional: -30% GHG Reductions below BAU Unilateral: -20% GHG Conditional: -30% GHG Reductions below BAU Energy: -25%/-45.8% GHG Forestry: reforestation of 1,300,000 ha
  9. 9. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France9/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i National committments: scenarios -38 % GHG in 2020 compared to BAU -20 % in 2020 compared to 2007 BAU 77 % Renewable electricity in 2020 20 % biofuels in 2020 Minimal afforestation 44 MtCO2eq 82 % oil in primary energy 80% hydroelectricity 90 % electricity from RNW sources 0 % net deforestation in 2021 33 % Renewables in final energy 15 % renewable electricity 30 % Waste-to-Energy 333 MtCO2eq 570 MtCO2eq 310 MtCO2eq 1,200 MtCO2eq 158 MtCO2eq 268 MtCO2eq 304 MtCO2eq 235 MtCO2eq 270 MtCO2eq 283 MtCO2eq 293 MtCO2eq 276 MtCO2eq 1,200 MtCO2eq 84 MtCO2eq 214 MtCO2eq 270 MtCO2eq 277 MtCO2eq 469 MtCO2eq 276 MtCO2eq 1,200 MtCO2eq 124 MtCO2eq
  10. 10. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France10/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i National committments: scenarios -38 % GHG in 2020 compared to BAU -20 % in 2020 compared to 2007 BAU 77 % Renewable electricity in 2020 20 % biofuels in 2020 Minimal afforestation 44 MtCO2eq 82 % oil in primary energy 80% hydroelectricity 90 % electricity from RNW sources 0 % net deforestation in 2021 33 % Renewables in final energy 15 % renewable electricity 30 % Waste-to-Energy NAMAs Uni_Nat Cond_Nat Cond_TALyC 333 MtCO2eq 570 MtCO2eq 310 MtCO2eq 1,200 MtCO2eq 158 MtCO2eq 268 MtCO2eq 304 MtCO2eq 235 MtCO2eq 270 MtCO2eq 283 MtCO2eq 293 MtCO2eq 276 MtCO2eq 1,200 MtCO2eq 84 MtCO2eq 214 MtCO2eq 270 MtCO2eq 277 MtCO2eq 469 MtCO2eq 276 MtCO2eq 1,200 MtCO2eq 124 MtCO2eq
  11. 11. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France11/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i INDCs vs. NAMAs: overall impacts 2 3 4 5 6 7 2010 2012 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Emissions(GtCO2eq) BAU NAMAs Uni_Nat Cond_Nat Cond_TALyC • NAMAs emissions are 21% below BAU in 2030 • INDCs emissions range from 24% to 32% below BAU • Stringent past-2030 bound in INDCs.
  12. 12. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France12/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i Impact on ELC – a virtuous BAU 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Electricityproduction(TWh/yr) Waste-to-energy Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 2030 2050
  13. 13. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France13/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i Impact on ELC – a virtuous BAU 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Electricityproduction(TWh/yr) Waste-to-energy Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 2030 2050
  14. 14. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France14/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i Impacts on ELC: Electrification, decarbonization -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 NAMAs Uni_Nat Cond_Nat Cond_TALyC Variationinelectricityproduction(TWh/yr) Waste-to-energy Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 BSE BWC ARG CHL COL/CYC AND/BPU/ SUG/VEN Variationinelectricityproduction(TWh/yr)
  15. 15. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France15/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i Impacts on ELC: Electrification, decarbonization -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 NAMAs Uni_Nat Cond_Nat Cond_TALyC Variationinelectricityproduction(TWh/yr) Waste-to-energy Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal
  16. 16. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France16/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i BAU Primary energy: room for improvement 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Primaryenergyproduction(Mtoe/yr) Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 2030 2050
  17. 17. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France17/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i BAU Primary energy: room for improvement 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Primaryenergyproduction(Mtoe/yr) Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 2030 2050
  18. 18. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France18/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i Impact on TPES: BSE drives decarbonization -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 NAMAs Uni_Nat Cond_Nat Cond_TALyC Variationinprimaryenergyconsumption(Mtoe/yr) (N.B.:includesexternaltradeonly) Elc Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal
  19. 19. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France19/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i Non-energy reductions BAU Cond_TALyC 2030 sectorial emissions under two climate scenarios
  20. 20. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France20/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i Concluding remarks • A quite specific climate-energy context – Clean electricity => the challenge is not EU’s one... – Non-energy GHGs => adapt the modeling framework • Improvement of INDCs over NAMAs – But what’s next after 2030? – Ambitious strategy is achievable • Relevance of energy exports – Interest of coupling TIAM and TALyC • Climate change adaptation – A local, renewable energy mix – How to hedge against CC effects? => stoch. TIMES – Overcapacity versus regional integration....
  21. 21. ETSAP Workshop – Sophia-Antipolis, France21/16 O c t o b e r 2 2 n d , 2 0 1 5 – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E , N a d i a M a ï z i Thank you for your attention! Contact: sebastien.postic@mines-paristech.fr

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