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Electrofuels for the transport sector: A review of production costs

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Electrofuels for the transport sector: A review of production costs

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Electrofuels for the transport sector: A review of production costs

  1. 1. 73rd Semi-Annual ETSAP workshop, 18th of June Selma Brynolf, selma.brynolf@chalmers.se Researcher at Mechanics and Maritime Sciences Electrofuels for the transport sector: A review of production costs?
  2. 2. Increasing interest for power to x…. 2 1 2 5 14 28 12 1 1 1 2 7 6 5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Web of Science results Articles and reports in our review The number of articles found in Web of Science and the articles and reports assessed in Tables 1 and 2 per year published. The error bar for 2016 represents the prognosis for the year, given the publication rate as of May 2016. The following search was done in Web of Science: TS = (electrofuel* OR power-to-gas OR power-to-liquids OR power-to-fuels OR (synthetic hydrocarbons OR synthetic fuels OR hydrocarbon fuels) AND (conversion of CO2 OR conversion of carbon dioxide OR carbon utilization OR carbon recycling)) AND TS = (economic* OR production costs OR techno-economic OR cost* OR efficiency). • large differences among the studies • broad range of production cost estimates (10–3,500 €2015/MWhfuel) • technology matureness, installation costs, and external factors
  3. 3. The review includes Costs and efficiencies for the production steps electrolysers fuels synthesis carbon capture Production cost of power-to-x/electrofuels hydrogen methane methanol dimethyl ether diesel gasoline Sensitivity analysis of the parameters with the greatest impact
  4. 4. Reference scenario 2015 different e-fuel options assuming most optimistic (low/best), least optimistic (high/worst) and average values (base) Electrolyser uncertainties & indirect costs Fuel synthesis and CO2 capture Electricity Parameters assumed for 2015, 5 MW reactor, CF 80%. Interest rate 5% Economic lifetime 25 years Investment costs: Alkaline electrolyzers €/kWelec 1100 (600-2,600) Methane reactor €/kWfuel 600 (100-900) Methanol reactor €/kWfuel 1000 (600-1200) DME reactor €/kWfuel 1000 (700-1300) FT liquids reactor €/kWfuel 1300 (800-2100) Gasoline (via meoh) €/kWfuel 1700 (1400- 2000) Electrolyzer efficiency 65 (43-69) % Electricity price 50 €/MWh el CO2 capture 30 €/tCO2 O&M 4% Water 1 €/m³
  5. 5. 11 Reference scenario 2030 different e-fuel options assuming most optimistic (low/best), least optimistic (high/worst) and average values (base) Parameters assumed for 2030, 50 MW reactor, CF 80%. Interest rate 5% Economic lifetime 25 years Investment costs: Alkaline electrolyzers €/kWelec 700 (400-900) Methane reactor €/kWfuel 300 (50-500) Methanol reactor €/kWfuel 500 (300-600) DME reactor €/kWfuel 500 (300-700) FT liquids reactor €/kWfuel 700(400-1000) Gasoline (via meoh) €/kWfuel 900(700-1000) Electrolyzer efficiency 66 (50-74) % Electricity price 50 €/MWh el CO2 capture 30 €/tCO2 O&M 4% Water 1 €/m³ When data is ”harmonized” between the fuel options (low compared to low etc) the differences between the fuel options are minor. E-gasoline only slightly more expensive
  6. 6. Reference scenario and 8 sensitivity cases Electrolyser Electricity price (€2015/MWh) Synthesis plant size Carbon capture cost (€2015/ton) Assumed revenue for heat and O2 Capacity factor Interest rate (%) /depreciation time (years) 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030 RS Alkaline Alkaline 50 50 Small scale Medium scale 30 30 No No 80% 80% 5/* 5/* S1 PEM PEM 50 50 Small scale Medium scale 30 30 No No 80% 80% 5/* 5/* S2 Alkaline SOEC 50 50 Small scale Medium scale 30 30 No No 80% 80% 5/* 5/* S3 Alkaline Alkaline 0 0 Small scale Medium scale 30 30 No No 20% 20% 5/* 5/* S4 Alkaline Alkaline 50 50 Medium scale Large scale 30 30 No No 80% 80% 5/* 5/* S5 Alkaline Alkaline 50 50 Small scale Medium scale 1000 500 No No 80% 80% 5/* 5/* S6 Alkaline Alkaline 50 50 Small scale Medium scale 30 30 Yes Yes 80% 80% 5/* 5/* S7 Alkaline Alkaline 50 50 Small scale Medium scale 30 30 No No 80% 80% 10/* 10/* S8 Alkaline Alkaline 50 50 Small scale Medium scale 30 30 No No 80% 80% 5/10 5/10 *The depreciation time is based on the life span of the electrolyser presented in Table 5 and a 25 years life span for the fuel synthesis plant.
  7. 7. S1. PEM electrolyser => larger uncertainty, similar base cost S4. Larger plants => Lowest production cost S5. Air capture
  8. 8. Production cost e-methanol depending on capacity factor Production costs may lie in the order of 100- 150 EUR/MWh in future It seam beneficial to run e-fuels plants for at least 40% of the year
  9. 9. Fuel production cost somparison with other studies With base case assumptions productions costs are: • 200–280 €2015/MWhfuel in 2015 • 160–210 €2015/MWhfuel in 2030 16 Production cost found in literature Fossil fuels 40-140 Methane from anaerobic digestion 40-180 Methane from gasification of lignocellulose 70-90 Methanol from gasification of lignocellulose 80-120 DME from gasification of lignocellulose 90-110 Ethanol from maize, sugarcane, wheat and waste 70-345 FAME from rapeseed, palm, waste oil 50-210 HVO from palm oil 134-185 Synthetic biodiesel from gasification of lignocellulose 120-655 Synthetic biogasoline from gasification of lignocellulose 90 Future production of electrofuels have the potential to be cost-competitive to the most expensive biofuels
  10. 10. Most important cost contributors High capacity factors => electrolyser capital costs, electrolyser stack life span & electricity price Low capacity factors => electrolyser capital cost, electrolyser stack life span & other plant investment costs Very low (<20%) capacity factor => high electrofuels cost Electrofuels have the potential to be cost-competitive to the most expensive biofuels Conclusions
  11. 11. Thanks for your attention! Maria Taljegård, PhD student Space Earth and Environment Chalmers University of Technology maria.taljegard@chalmers.se Selma Brynolf, Postdoc Mechanics and Maritime Sciences Chalmers University of Technology selma.brynolf@chalmers.se Julia Hansson, Postdoc Mechanics and Maritime Sciences Chalmers University of Technology IVL julia.hansson@ivl.se Maria Grahn, Research leader Mechanics and Maritime Sciences Chalmers University of Technology maria.grahn@chalmers.se More information can be found in: Brynolf, S., Taljegard, M., Grahn, M. & Hansson, J. 2018. Electrofuels for the transport sector: A review of production costs. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 81, 1887-1905. Selma Brynolf, selma.brynolf@chalmers.se Researcher at Mechanics and Maritime Sciences

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