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Developmentof a TIMES model for the WalloonRegion(Belgium)

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Developmentof a TIMES model for the WalloonRegion(Belgium)

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Developmentof a TIMES model for the WalloonRegion(Belgium)

  1. 1. Development of a TIMES model for the Walloon Region (Belgium) • Presentation to ETSAP meeting - Goteborg - 18 June 2018 • Marco Orsini (ICEDD), Nathalie Arnould (DGO4), Ornella Dupont (DGO4) Boulevard Frère Orban 4 5000 Namur Tel : 081 25 04 80 www.icedd.be Pour le Service public de Wallonie DIRECTION GENERALE OPERATIONNELLE - AMENAGEMENT DU TERRITOIRE, LOGEMENT, PATRIMOINE ET ENERGIE Département de l’énergie et du bâtiment durable En collaboration avec: Bureau Fédéral du Plan
  2. 2. 2 • Background > Regional competences and the relevance of a tool such as TIMES in the context of RW • Building up the model > challenges and opportunities of starting from (almost) scratch • The structure of the model > the art of compromise with the reality of data • Assumptions > Rational discussion is useful only when there is a significant base of shared assumptions (N. Chosky). • (Scenarios & ) Results > finally… • Next steps > once you start you cannot stop! Outline
  3. 3. 3 Background Figure: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%C3%A 9gion_wallonne Population: 3,6 M Primary energy consumption: +- 170 TWh
  4. 4. 4 •The institutional setting > RW competences related to energy (and climate) > renewable energy production and energy efficiency •Need of a tool, transparent and flexible • To help political decisions (regional plan, measures choices, …) • To report on scenarios (with existing measures/with additional measures)  No perfect model  ETSAP opportunity => TIMES model Background
  5. 5. 5 •Building up the model > challenges and opportunities of starting from scratch • Not really from scratch > the Belgian TIMES model > not really fit to RW needs • Huge amount of data on energy > not always organised, consistent and coherent Building up the model
  6. 6. 6 •The structure of the model > the art of compromise with the reality of data • One region > which implies exogenous assumptions on imp/exp of electricity • 2050 Horizon • 24 times slices > optimisation « à la VITO » The structure of the model
  7. 7. The structure of the model •The structure of the model > the art of compromise with the reality of data • Reduced supply sector • Residential sector: 3 houses types + appart. / 5 age classes • Commercial sector: 5 subsectors • Transport sector: coherency (not fully yet) with COPERT RW • « Classic » electricity generation 7
  8. 8. Assumptions • Assumptions (in all scenarios) > Rational discussion is useful only when there is a significant base of shared assumptions (N. Chosky). • Phasing out of nuclear > as it is in the current legilsation (completed by 2025) • No import/export of electricity • No offshore wind energy • Constraints on: renewable potentials, renovation rates • Prices > mostly aligned with lastest EU and BE figures (e.g. fuels prices projections as in the BfP studies) 8
  9. 9. 9 • (some surprising) Results: • Nuclear replaced by gas and wind, no PV, biomass (if existing subsides stay) • No need of further storage (in REF and EU2030 scenarios) • Heat pumps (for Commercial) and renovation of buildings (windows & roofs) > competitvness of these solutions Results
  10. 10. 10 • Consumption of electricity (PJ) - REF Results
  11. 11. 11 • Production of electricity (PJ) - REF Results avec subsides (CV) sans subsides (CV)
  12. 12. 12 •Opportunities > existing experiences (i.e. belgian TIMES model, ETSAP experts, …), but adaptation needed •Biggest challenge at this step > data collection > also an opportunity to centralise and challenge results of other studies ! •Economic optimisation > advantage and limit (some lack of realism => added constraint) •Tools > transparence and flexibility Lessons learnt
  13. 13. 13 •Next steps • Improvement of structure and data • Exploration possibility to use TIMES for reporting obligation (EU, UNFCCC) • Consultation of (external) stakeholders Next steps
  14. 14. Thank you for your attention! Marco Orsini (mo@icedd.be), Nathalie Arnould (nathalie.arnould@spw.wallonie.be), Ornella Dupont (ornella.dupont@spw.wallonie.be) Akwnoledgements Maurizio Gargiulo (E4SMA) - Jan Duerinck (VITO) – Dominique Gusbin & Danielle Devogelaar (Bureau Federal du Plan) – Laurent Noirhomme (Climact) Boulevard Frère Orban 4 5000 Namur Tel : 081 25 04 80 www.icedd.be Pour le Service public de Wallonie DIRECTION GENERALE OPERATIONNELLE - AMENAGEMENT DU TERRITOIRE, LOGEMENT, PATRIMOINE ET ENERGIE Département de l’énergie et du bâtiment durable En collaboration avec: Bureau Fédéral du Plan

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