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Development of Transport Scenarios for Denmark: An Iterative and Participatory Perspective

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Development of Transport Scenarios for Denmark: An Iterative and Participatory Perspective

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Development of Transport Scenarios for Denmark: An Iterative and Participatory Perspective

  1. 1. Development of transport scenarios for Denmark An iterative and participatory perspective Zurich – 72th Semi-annual ETSAP meeting 12th December, 2017 Giada Venturini PhD Student Energy System Analysis Technical University of Denmark give@dtu.dk
  2. 2. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Background Mutual validation of two perspectives Enlarge model structure to integrate new parameters Difficulty in attributing quantitative estimates to uncertain drivers Implicit information in qualitative scenario discourse Scope and capabilities of modelling tools Qualitative scenarios Explore and capture causal relations and interdependencies Quantitative scenarios Model the deterministic structure of the system 2
  3. 3. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Case study Case: Transport scenarios for Denmark - Analysing 100% RE pathways Research questions Methodology o How can we bridge qualitative and quantitative tools for the creation of scenarios in TIMES-DK? o What do we gain from this dialogue? How can it be improved? Transport and energy system o What are robust and sustainable pathways for the future energy and transport system in Denmark? o Which policy measures can support the recommended pathways? 3
  4. 4. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Framework for scenario development Workshop Translation Quantification TIMES-DK Workshop Workshop WorkshopWorkshop 1 2 4
  5. 5. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Energy system model TIMES-DK Primary Energy Supply Import/Export/Mining Oil Coal Gas Gasoline Diesel Biofuels Energy crops Manure Straw Waste Wood chips Wood pellets Electricity Conversion Technologies Crude oil refineries Combined heat and power plants Biorefineries & biogas plants Electric boilers and heat pumps End-use sectors Residential Industry Transport Fossil Biomass Electricity Blended fuels Blending Technologies ElectricityBiofuels Fossil fuels Heat 5
  6. 6. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Structure of transport sector WALK MOPED BIKE METRO CAR BUS MOTO COACH TRAIN LIGHT TRAIN Fuels Fossil ShortDistance Demands ExtraShortDistance LongDistance MediumDistance Time ... Transport infrastructures EXISTING INFSTR_METRO EXISTING INFSTR_ROAD EXISTING INFSTR_BIKE EXISTING INFSTR_RAIL NEW INFSTR_BIKE NEW INFSTR_METRO NEW INFSTR_RAIL NEW INFSTR_ROAD = Fuel Legend TECH = Technology = Demands = Flow INFRASTR = Infrastructure process = Time = Infrastructure commodities TTB Cyclinglane Metrorailway Trainrailway Road Tattini et al. (2018) 6
  7. 7. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Qualitative scenarios 7
  8. 8. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Qualitative scenarios 8
  9. 9. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark TIMES-DK scenario interface 9
  10. 10. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark TIMES-DK scenario interface 10
  11. 11. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark TIMES-DK scenario interface 11
  12. 12. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Scenario workshops Citizens, stakeholders and researchers involved in the creation of transport-focused scenarios for Denmark Discussion of driving forces and uncertain parameters Design of scenarios through TIMES- DK interface Assessment and comparison of scenario results 12
  13. 13. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Scenario workshops Scenario Main Assumptions Base • No emission caps • No RE% targets after 2020 • No restrictions on power and biomass imports • Baseline taxation scheme for all sectors Transport Measures • Phase-out of fossil fuels in transport by 2035 (excluding maritime); other sectors by 2030/2035 • Imports of biomass not allowed from 2020 • Improved bike & public transport infrastructure • Increased car occupancy levels • Feebate scheme supporting alternative vehicles Target Same as Base, except phase-out of fossil fuels in transport by 2035, other sectors by 2030/2035. Allow Biofuels Same as Transport Measures, except biomass imports are allowed. 13
  14. 14. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Scenario results 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Base Transport Measures Target Allow Biofuels Mpass-km Demand by Mode - Inland Passenger Walk Train Strain Motorbike Moped Metro Coach Car Bus Bike 14
  15. 15. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Scenario results 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Base Transport Measures kvehicles Car Stock Otto Engine Blending 1 - Existing LPG - Existing Gas Engine Blending 1 - Existing Electricity BEV - Existing Diesel Engine Blending 1 - Existing Hybrid Electric Vehicle Gasoline 4 - New Hybrid Electric Vehicle Gasoline 3 - New Battery Electric Vehicle - New 15
  16. 16. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Scenario results 0 50 100 150 200 250 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Base Target PJ Transport Fuel Consumption Bio Synt Natural Gas Natural Gas Liquid petrol gas Biokerosene Kerosene Heavy Fuel Oil Gasoline Bioethanol Electricity Diesel Biodiesel 16
  17. 17. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Scenario results -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Transport Measures Allow Biofuels PJ Biomass use Import - Wood pellets Import - Wood chips Import - Waste Import - Sugar Beet Import - Rapeseed Export - Glycerol Export - Biogas Domestic - Straw Domestic - Manure 17
  18. 18. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Scenario results 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Base Transport Measures Allow Biofuels Kt Emissions CO2 TRACO2NN TRACO2NI TRACO2A TRACO2 SUPCO2 RESCO2 INDCO2 ELCCO2W ELCCO2 18
  19. 19. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Learning opportunities • The method provides space for: – Discussion and debate over relevant drivers – Common evaluation of pathways – Understanding of cause-effect relationships – Validation of assumptions • Different development trajectories and policies can be tested: importance of participation and interaction in the scenario creation 19
  20. 20. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Challenges and further work • Simplification or modification of scenario interface: adjust tool to group needs • Time constraints: faster result generation • Provide further guidance on drivers’ impacts: sensitivity analyses, screening of results… 20
  21. 21. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Thank you for your attention! Comments, doubts, suggestions? Giada Venturini PhD Student Energy System Analysis DTU Management Engineering give@dtu.dk 21

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