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Development of Sub-regional
TIMES Energy system model for
India
TERI Pilot model
Aman Agrawal
Research Associate
TERI, Ind...
TIMES India sub-regional model
• Highlights of TIMES India sub-regional
model
– India in 5 sub-region
– Detailed 288 time-...
TimeSlicesModelYear
January
February
March
April
May
June
H1
H2
H3
.
.
.
.
H22
H23
H24
July
August
September
October
Novem...
Power Sector in India
31%
11%
30%
26%
1%
North Region East region
West Region South Region
North-East Region
India’s Elect...
Power Sector Growth
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
North Region West Region Southe Resion East Region ...
Energy carriers in TIMES-India
• Primary energy supply carriers for India are:
– Coal (Maximum Share)
– Oil (largely from ...
Energy Supply Analysis
• All the primary energy commodities are
analyzed at annual level, whereas electricity
is analyzed ...
Power sector analysis
• To provide a detailed techno-economic
characterization into the model, various
aspects of the powe...
Current Electricity Generation sector
• Based on various types of primary energy
reserves availability, the power generati...
Future Power system
• Increasing power generation capacities and high
penetration of Variable energy generating sources,
f...
Demand Drivers
• Driver behind increasing energy demand
of India:
– High GDP
– High population and Energy access
– Penetra...
Demand side
• End-use energy demand is modeled to analyze the
effect of new and efficient appliances.
• Considering severa...
Issues of Modeling interest
• Modeling energy demand behavior in terms of Time of use & it’s effect
on load curve
• Modeli...
Representative Results
All the results and analysed
based on Dummy numbers
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2014 20...
Representative Results
• Retrofitting of
coal based
power plants
with Biomass
• Life extension of
existing thermal
power p...
BETTER WAYS TO
STRUCTURE THE MODEL !!
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !
Aman Agrawal
Research Associate
The Energy and Resource Institute, New Delhi, India
E-Mail:...
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Development of Sub-regional TIMES Energy system model for India

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Development of Sub-regional TIMES Energy system model for India - TERI Pilot model

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Development of Sub-regional TIMES Energy system model for India

  1. 1. Development of Sub-regional TIMES Energy system model for India TERI Pilot model Aman Agrawal Research Associate TERI, India
  2. 2. TIMES India sub-regional model • Highlights of TIMES India sub-regional model – India in 5 sub-region – Detailed 288 time-slices – Base-year: 2011 – Power sector focused model – Model Horizon is till 2050 – Demand is sub classified in 5 sectors: Agriculture; Commercial; Industrial; Residential; Transport
  3. 3. TimeSlicesModelYear January February March April May June H1 H2 H3 . . . . H22 H23 H24 July August September October November December • Every Hour of the month is considered • Existing demand pattern of electricity consumption will be provided to each timeslice • Behaviour for future electricity demand will be analysed on all 288 timeslice
  4. 4. Power Sector in India 31% 11% 30% 26% 1% North Region East region West Region South Region North-East Region India’s Electricity Demand Share (2015-16) Source: CEA, India
  5. 5. Power Sector Growth 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 North Region West Region Southe Resion East Region North-East Region India Power demand growth (MU) India Power demand growth (MU) 2016-17 India Power demand growth (MU) 2021-22 India Power demand growth (MU) 2016-27 Source: CEA, India • Rapid change in power demand • Different drivers in different regional power demand growth: – Services growth – Industrialization – Energy access – Population growth – Energy transition
  6. 6. Energy carriers in TIMES-India • Primary energy supply carriers for India are: – Coal (Maximum Share) – Oil (largely from Import >80%) – Gas (Economically not viable) – Renewable (Increasing) – Nuclear (Small share) – Biomass (highly Unregulated) • Secondary: – Electricity – Petroleum products – Biofuels
  7. 7. Energy Supply Analysis • All the primary energy commodities are analyzed at annual level, whereas electricity is analyzed at DAYNITE level (288). • To capture the variable generation and power system flexibility, a total of 288 Timeslices are framed in a manner to capture hourly variation.
  8. 8. Power sector analysis • To provide a detailed techno-economic characterization into the model, various aspects of the power system technicalities will be provided into the model – Power system flexibility – Increasing penetration of renewable – Peaking power plants – Spinning reserves – Increasing efficiencies (power generation as well as end use demand technologies) – Changing load patterns
  9. 9. Current Electricity Generation sector • Based on various types of primary energy reserves availability, the power generation portfolio of India is very diverse. • Within each type of fuel source various technologies are actively operating with their specific characteristics for providing electricity. • Power generation categorization are primarily done on the basis of fuel type and technology
  10. 10. Future Power system • Increasing power generation capacities and high penetration of Variable energy generating sources, flexibility of the system need to be evaluated. • Impact of High renewable energy capacities on base-load power plants and their performance in conjunction requires attention. • Economics and necessity of Electricity storage at grid level. • Requirement and Evaluation of suitable flexible options to handle the variable power generation and it’s competitiveness with energy storage
  11. 11. Demand Drivers • Driver behind increasing energy demand of India: – High GDP – High population and Energy access – Penetration of new and advance technologies – Upgrading living standards – Urbanization
  12. 12. Demand side • End-use energy demand is modeled to analyze the effect of new and efficient appliances. • Considering several demand drivers, sector wise demand technologies and their utilization is captured in a detailed manner. – Technologies using primary energy sources are analyzed annually – Technologies using Electricity are analyzed at hourly level • Behavioral analysis will be carried out to estimate the future electricity demand profile in various sectors
  13. 13. Issues of Modeling interest • Modeling energy demand behavior in terms of Time of use & it’s effect on load curve • Modeling of energy conservation processes – Upgrading building envelop – Introducing Car pooling – Upgrading to efficient appliances • Implication of changes in efficiency gains on power generation technologies & options across regions • Identification of power sharing needs between regions based on future demands and supply of resources • Implications of emerging demands such as electric cook-stoves, Energy access or charging of e-vehicles at certain times of the day on generation capacities & costs • Short-term and long-term impact of energy transition and introduction of new energy carriers in Indian energy sector
  14. 14. Representative Results All the results and analysed based on Dummy numbers 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2012 2014 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 Capacity(GW) Base Case Scenario Existing Coal Capacity Existing Gas Capacity Existing PV Capacity New Coal Capacity
  15. 15. Representative Results • Retrofitting of coal based power plants with Biomass • Life extension of existing thermal power plants • Without any condition, Only thermal capacity is observed0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2012 2014 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 Retrofitting and Life Extension Scenario Existing Coal Capacity Existing Gas Capacity Existing PV Capacity Retrofitted Coal capacity Coal Life Extension New Coal Capacity All the results and analysed based on Dummy numbers
  16. 16. BETTER WAYS TO STRUCTURE THE MODEL !!
  17. 17. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! Aman Agrawal Research Associate The Energy and Resource Institute, New Delhi, India E-Mail: Aman.agarwal@teri.res.in Phone: +91-952-956-7455

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