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Consideration of disruptive elements in energy system models

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Consideration of disruptive elements in energy system models -Findings from the RegMex project

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Consideration of disruptive elements in energy system models

  1. 1. Consideration of disruptive elements in energy system models - Findings from the RegMex project IRENA/IEA Workshop „Understanding Innovation“ 09.11.2018, Stuttgart Hans Christian Gils DLR Energy Systems Analysis
  2. 2. • Definition of a standardized scenario framework for two model experiments • Development of templates for increasing comparability of models and data • Implementation of the model experiments and derivation of robust conclusions • Evaluation of disruptive elements and their representation in energy models Goals of the “RegMex“ project Project consortium: DLR.de • Chart 2 > IRENA/IEA Workshop „Understanding Innovation“ > Hans Christian Gils • Findings from the RegMex project > 9 November 2018
  3. 3. Model experiments DLR.de • Chart 3 1. Overall energy system 2. Enhanced power system Focus Transformation pathways Load balancing (storage, grid, DSM, flexible sector integration) Geographical coverage Germany Germany, 18 regions Investigation period/year 2015-2050 2050 Temporal resolution Representative days / hourly Hourly Sectoral coverage All energy usage Power, links to heat/transport Participating models REMod-D (Fraunhofer ISE) TIMES PanEU (IER) SCOPE (Fraunhofer IEE) REMix (DLR) PowerFlex (Öko Institute) SCOPE (Fraunhofer IEE) ELMOD (TU Dresden) Scenarios Differing in CO2 reduction (80% vs. 90% to 1990) Differing in RE supply and grid infrastructures, driven by exogenous domestic generation share and option of endogenous grid expansion > IRENA/IEA Workshop „Understanding Innovation“ > Hans Christian Gils • Findings from the RegMex project > 9 November 2018
  4. 4. • Differences in input data cause significant deviations in some results • Strong increase in power demand due to electrification of other sectors • Wind and PV are main pillars of energy supply in 2050 • Increasing demand for back-up generation capacity Main results of model experiment 1 DLR.de • Chart 4 0 100 200 300 400 500 REMod-D TIMES PanEU SCOPE REMod-D TIMES PanEU SCOPE GWel Laufwasser-KW Wind Offshore Wind Onshore PV 2030 2050 > IRENA/IEA Workshop „Understanding Innovation“ > Hans Christian Gils • Findings from the RegMex project > 9 November 2018
  5. 5. • Identical parameterization leads to approximation of results • Considerable demand for temporal balancing on all time scales • Demand flexibility of H2 electrolysis, electric heating and BEV charging can complement and replace power transmission and storage • Flexible sector integration particularly important when grid extension is limited Main results of model experiment 2 DLR.de • Chart 5 Total generation and grid usage Temporal balancing > IRENA/IEA Workshop „Understanding Innovation“ > Hans Christian Gils • Findings from the RegMex project > 9 November 2018
  6. 6. Disruptive elements – collection and evaluation DLR.de • Chart 6 Collection of potentially disruptive elements Definition: Disruptive elements are events that are a significant deviation from current trends, and that have major impact on the energy system transformation > IRENA/IEA Workshop „Understanding Innovation“ > Hans Christian Gils • Findings from the RegMex project > 9 November 2018
  7. 7. • Extremely fast implementation of Industry 4.0 • Massive cost reductions of decentralized storage • Massive CCS cost reductions • Smart Grid, Smart Markets, Smart Homes, Smart… • Close to zero power costs, flat rate • Electricity/energy autarchic buildings • Increasing residential/commercial demand due to own production (3D printers) • Break-through of completely new power generation technologies Disruptive elements related to technology innovation DLR.de • Chart 7 > IRENA/IEA Workshop „Understanding Innovation“ > Hans Christian Gils • Findings from the RegMex project > 9 November 2018
  8. 8. Disruptive elements – feasibility of model implementation DLR.de • Chart 8 Disruptive element 1 2 3 4 5 6 Count Global energy markets (e.g. increase in fuel prices) 5 High real interest rate 5 Prolonged economic downturn 3 No/reduced international power exchange 5 No/reduced availability of gas imports 4 Massive cost reductions of decentralized storage 5 Massive CCS cost reductions 3 Reduced RE technology learning rates 4 Dismantling of gas networks 0 No acceptancy 3 Climate change impact on power generation 2 Reduced power supply security 2 Delayed / limited grid expansion 3 Failure of electrification strategy 5 Shortage or cost explosion of structural materials 1 Reduced biomass availability to the energy sector 5 Smart Grid, Smart Markets, Smart Homes, Smart… 2 Temporal turnaround in national energy policy 3 Inacceptable costs of climate policy 2 Close to zero power costs, flat rate 3 Change in consumer behaviour 4 Yes No Partially > IRENA/IEA Workshop „Understanding Innovation“ > Hans Christian Gils • Findings from the RegMex project > 9 November 2018
  9. 9. Adjustments required to model disruptions Disruptive element Adjustment 1 Adjustment 2 Count High real interest rate Cost parameter 5 Massive cost reductions of decentralized storage 5 Global energy markets (e.g. increase in fuel prices) 5 No/reduced availability of gas imports Technology parameter 4 Reduced RE technology learning rates 4 Close to zero power costs, flat rate Demand 3 Temporal turnaround in national energy policy 3 Shortage or cost explosion of structural materials 1 Dismantling of gas networks Demand 0 Reduced power supply security Modelling approach 2 Change in consumer behaviour Demand 4 Prolonged economic downturn Climate change impact on power generation 2 Smart Grid, Smart Markets, Smart Homes, Smart… Technology parameter 2 Inacceptable costs of climate policy 2 No/reduced international power exchange Technology parameter 5 Failure of electrification strategy Demand 5 Reduced biomass availability to the energy sector 5 Massive CCS cost reductions Cost parameter 3 No acceptancy 3 Delayed / limited grid expansion 3 DLR.de • Chart 9 > IRENA/IEA Workshop „Understanding Innovation“ > Hans Christian Gils • Findings from the RegMex project > 9 November 2018
  10. 10. • In the optimization of transformation pathways with disruptions an approach with partial foresight and rolling horizon appears most suited • Potential combination with stochastic modelling approaches, e.g. focused on technology innovation Modelling disruptive elements – model horizon DLR.de • Chart 10 > IRENA/IEA Workshop „Understanding Innovation“ > Hans Christian Gils • Findings from the RegMex project > 9 November 2018
  11. 11. • Almost all disruptions identified can be implemented in at least one model • Mostly possible by adjustment of demand, cost or technology parameter • Foresight over full planning horizon not compatible with analysis of disruptions Summary DLR.de • Chart 11 > IRENA/IEA Workshop „Understanding Innovation“ > Hans Christian Gils • Findings from the RegMex project > 9 November 2018
  12. 12. 12 Contact: Dr. Hans Christian Gils German Aerospace Center (DLR) Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics Energy Systems Analysis Department Pfaffenwaldring 38-40 | 70569 Stuttgart | Germany Phone +49 711 6862-477 | Fax +49 711 6862-747 hans-christian.gils@dlr.de www.DLR.de/tt This presentation relies on the final report of the RegMex project: Lechtenböhmer, S.; Palzer, A.; Pregger, T.; Gils, H.C.; Sterchele, P.; Kost, C.; Brucker, L.; Janßen, T.; Krüger, C.; Schüwer, D.; Luhmann, H.-J.; Buddeke, M. (2018): RegMex - Modellexperimente und Vergleiche zur Simulation von Wegen zu einer vollständig regenerativen Energieversorgung. https://elib.dlr.de/121339/
  13. 13. > Lecture > Author • Document > DateDLR.de • Chart 13 Nr. Nr. Kurzname 1 Einflüsse globaler Energiemärkte 2 Makroökonomische Einflüsse 2a hohe Realzinsen 2b hohe Inflation 2c langanhaltende Rezession 2d Finanzknappheit 2e stärkeres Wirtschaftswachstum 3 Splittung des Europäischen Marktes 3a s. makroökonomische Effekte 3b s. kein Stromaustausch 4 Kein (Strom-)Austausch 5 Erdgasverfügbarkeit sinkt 6 Sehr schnelle Verbreitung von Industrie 4.0 7 Variation der Stromgestehungskosten/-speicher/Smart … durch Technologieweiterentwicklungen 8 Kostendurchbruch dezentrale Speicher 9 Kostendurchbruch CCS 10 Stromerzeugung kostet kurzfristig nichts mehr, Flatrate-Tarife… 11 Geringe Lerneffekte bei EE-Technologien 12 Langsamer Ausbau von EE-Technologien 13 Rückbau Gasnetz 14 Zielverfehlung bei Einsparzielen 15 Gesellschaftliche Risiken 15a Keine Akzeptanz 15b Demographische Entwicklung 15c Konsumentenverhalten
  14. 14. > Lecture > Author • Document > DateDLR.de • Chart 14 Nr. Nr. Kurzname 16 Klimapolitik der Bundesländer und Kommunen 17 Auswirkungen Klimawandel auf Energiewirtschaft 18 Versorgungssicherheit Strom sinkt 19 Netzausbau findet nicht in erwartetem Maße statt 20 Elektrifizierungsstrategie kann nicht umgesetzt werden 21 Technische Risiken der Umstellung des Energiesystems auf Strom 22 Lock-in-Situationen 23 Verknappungen/Preisanstieg von Strukturmaterialien 24 Engpässe bei energetischen Biomassenutzung 25 Smart Grid, Smart Markets, Smart Homes, Smart… 26 Ziel Energiewende wird im Bund für 1 Legislaturperiode nicht verfolgt 27 Wirkung ungleicherer Einkommensverteilung auf das Energiesystem 28 Strom(energie)autarke Häuser 29 Infrastruktur für Bahngüterverkehr wird schlechter 30 Regionaler Luftgüterverkehr 31 Eigenproduktion HH, GHD steigt (3D-Drucker) 32 Einschlägige Gesetze verfehlen Wirkung 33 Reaktion auf erhöhte Gefahr kurzfristiger Unterbrechungen (z. B. Terroranschläge) 34 Exotische Stromerzeugungssysteme setzen sich durch (z. B. Nutzung piezoelektrischer Effekte) 35 Personenverkehr 35 a Verhalten: PKW-Nutzung bleibt dominant, Verkehrsleistung sinkt kaum 35 b Elektrifizierung (auch indirekte) unterbleibt; ggf. Biomasseverfügbarkeit eingeschränkt 36 Unakzeptable Kosten der Klimapolitik 37 Naturkatastrophen - Man-made

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