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Characterizing technology opportunities for energy system in transition through rank trajectories


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Characterizing technology opportunities for energy system in transition through rank trajectories

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Characterizing technology opportunities for energy system in transition through rank trajectories

  1. 1. Environmental Research Institute University College Cork Characterizing technology opportunities through rank trajectories Tarun Sharma, Fionn Rogan, Brian Ó Gallachóir Joint Global Change Research Institute of Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNNL) & University of Maryland (UMD), USA 71th ETSAP-MEETING | 10th July 2017
  2. 2. • Technology criteria for ranking: • Cost (capital, O&M) • Emissions • Resource availability • Return horizon • Complementarity (system’s perspective) • Technology readiness level • Market pull and technology push factors • Jobs • Risk • Carbon mitigation policy • Pollutant emissions • Starting point: Endogenize cost, resource availability, emissions, return horizon and system’s perspective in energy model (TIMES): Obtain Rank Trajectories (RT) based on energy shares. Why rank? Approach • Prioritization for timely allocation of limited resources. How to obtain technology specific information on all these criteria?
  3. 3. 1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351 401 451 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Rankbasedonenergyconsumption Years 10 Prominent technologies in 2050 - 80% mitigation scenario CCS Gas (ELC) HGV Ethanol E10 (TRA) HGV Biogas (TRA) Plug-in EV (TRA) HGV Biofuel DME (TRA) Gas Condense. Boiler (RES) CCS Coal (IND) PV (ELC) Biomass (ELC) Buses Ethanol (TRA)
  4. 4. Impact • Scanning technology landscape across timeline and scenarios • Functionality for generating rank trajectories is scalable both in size of technology set and number of scenarios • Ongoing analysis with handles on more than 400 technologies across 16 scenarios • Specificity of technological opportunity: • Onset time: Early movers (Plug-in EV) vs late movers (CCS Gas) • Diffusion rate: Gradual (PV) vs abrupt (Biomass ELC)
  5. 5. Next steps : Quantitative basis for resilience • How will technology ranks change when considering contributions to: • Pollutant emissions • Energy security • Job creation • Value added • Carbon emission mitigation targets in the range of 65% to 95% • Availability of biomass imports • Use rank variations across scenarios to characterize technology risks and resilience which then feeds into multi criteria assessment of technology opportunities Electric radiators for commercial heating
  6. 6. •Technology criteria: • Cost • Emissions • Resource availability • Return horizon • System’s perspective Next Steps: MCA of technologies Zeroth order criteria First order criteria: Derived by quantification of Rank Trajectory sensitivity under different scenarios • Systemic policy risks: • Carbon mitigation • Pollutant mitigation • Incentives for EV • Preference for energy security • Preference for indigenization
  7. 7. QUESTIONS?
  8. 8. “Unlocking the potential of our marine and renewable energy resources through the power of research and innovation”
  9. 9. Environmental Research Institute Instiúd Taighde Comshaoil Energy Policy and Modelling Group