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Bi-directional linkage of TIMES-Norway and a power system model

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Bi-directional linkage of TIMES-Norway and a power system model

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Bi-directional linkage of TIMES-Norway and a power system model

  1. 1. Bi-directional linkage between TIMES-Norway and a power system model 73rd Semi-Annual ETSAP meeting Chalmers University, 17.06.2018 Pernille Seljom & Eva Rosenberg – IFE Linn Emelie Schäffer – SINTEF Energy Research
  2. 2. v v • Bi-directional linking between Energy system and Power system models provide • Consistency between models • Improved decision support • Literature dominated by Uni-directional linking • No direct improvement of the energy system model • Literature on bi-directional linking exclude parts of the energy system • Do not utilise the strength of the energy system model! • Novelty - Bi-directional linking of a complete energy system model 29.06.2018 2 Motivation
  3. 3. v v 29.06.2018 3 TIMES-Norway • Energy system model of Norway • Coarse hydropower Model characteristics EMPS • Power system model of Europe • Detailed hydropower in NO & SE Model parameter EMPS TIMES-Norway Electricity capacity in Norway Exogenous Endogenous Electricity demand in Norway Exogenous Endogenous Electricity generation in Norway Endogenous Endogenous Electricity prices in Norway Endogenous Endogenous Electricity prices outside Norway Endogenous Exogenous
  4. 4. v v 29.06.2018 4 • Detailed description of the hydropower system • Fine temporal and spatial resolution • Stochastic - 58 historical weather years • Optimization method 1. Water value calculation based on aggregated system, stochastic weather 2. Simulation with detailed disposal of the hydropower system EMPS - Multi area Power-market simulator Historical inflow years
  5. 5. v v 29.06.2018 5 EMPS • Consistent model input for Norway • Electricity generation capacity • Electricity demand Motivation for linkage TIMES-Norway • Consistent electricity trade prices • DK, SE, DE, NL, UK • Improved hydropower • Reservoir hydro • Improved model results
  6. 6. v v 29.06.2018 6 • Bi-directional linkage • Complete energy system • Convergence criteria • Endogenous parameters in both models • Income rather than production • Novel methodology Our linking strategy- TIMES-NO↔EMPS Power system model EMPS Energy system model TIMES-Norway H a r m o n i s a t i o n Convergence Results No Yes A C C D B
  7. 7. v v 29.06.2018 7 • A) TIMES-NO→ EMPS • 2030 & 2050, by region • Electricity capacity • Transmission capacity • Electricity demand • B) EMPS → TIMES-NO • 2030 & 2050, by region • Electricity prices in Europe • Hydropower production • Week & spot price region Our linking strategy- TIMES-NO↔EMPS Power system model EMPS Energy system model TIMES-Norway H a r m o n i s a t i o n Convergence Results No Yes A C C D B
  8. 8. v v Result Comparison • Hydropower production • Hydropower income → Production x Price • Hydropower sales Price → Income/ Production 29.06.2018 8 Iteration 1 Power system model (EMPS-NO) Energy system model (TIMES-Norway) Demand 1 Capacity 1 EMPS electricity trade prices - 1
  9. 9. v v 29.06.2018 9 1) Hydropower production 2050 - 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 1 11 21 31 41 51 Hydropowerproduciton,GWh/week Week Production TIMES L1 145.5 TWh → Different production profile & similar annual production - 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 1 11 21 31 41 51 Hydropowerproduciton,GWh/week Week Production EMPS i1 145.1 TWh - 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 1 11 21 31 41 51 Hydropowerproduciton,GWh/week Week Production TIMES L1 145.5 TWh - 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 1 11 21 31 41 51 Hydropowerproduciton,GWh/week Week Production EMPS i1 145.1 TWh
  10. 10. v v 29.06.2018 10 1) Hydropower income 2050 → 10 % higher hydropower income in TIMES than EMPS - 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 1 11 21 31 41 51 Hydropowerincome,mill.NOK Week TIMES L1 52 575 mill NOK - 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 1 11 21 31 41 51 Hydropowerincome,mill.NOK Week EMPS i1 47 665 mill NOK
  11. 11. v v 29.06.2018 11 1) Hydropower sales price 2050 → 19 % higher hydropower average sales price in TIMES than EMPS 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 11 21 31 41 51 Electricityprice,NOK/kWh Week Price TIMES L1 361 NOK/kWh 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 11 21 31 41 51 Electricityprice,NOK/kWh Week Price EMPS i1 328 NOK/kWh
  12. 12. v v 29.06.2018 12 Results- Hydropower in TIMES • Results converge after iteration 2 • If convergence criteria is only related to TIMES • Linking = Successful ...... 130 135 140 145 150 2030 2050 Production,TWh 1 2 3 4 5 - 20 40 60 80 2030 2050 Income,bill.NOK 1 2 3 4 5 - 100 200 300 400 500 600 2030 2050 SalespriceNOK/kWh 1 2 3 4 5
  13. 13. v v 300 320 340 360 380 1 2 3 4 5 SalespriceNOK/kWh Iteration TIMES 2050 EMPS 29.06.2018 13 Results- Hydropower in TIMES & EMPS • Income tend to converge ! • Differences between TIMES & EMPS • Different model characteristics • Lack of convergence 44 000 46 000 48 000 50 000 52 000 54 000 1 2 3 4 5 IncomemillNOK Iteration TIMES 2050 EMPS
  14. 14. v v 29.06.2018 14 Results- TIMES electricity generation capacity 2050 • Wind capacity most sensitive to the iteration L1 L2 L3 L4 WIND 5.8 1.8 4.4 2.5 HYDRO 35.2 34.1 34.4 34.2 PV 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 CHP + GAS 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Electricitygen.cap.,GW CHP + GAS PV HYDRO WIND
  15. 15. v v 29.06.2018 15 Results– TIMES elc. consumption and trade 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 2030 2050 Electricityconsumption,TWh → Export is more sensitive to the iteration than consumption -10 -5 - 5 10 15 20 25 1 2 3 4 5 Net export from Norway in 2050, TWh Iterationnumber
  16. 16. v v 29.06.2018 16 Iteration comparison 1→ 5 Hydropower production 2050
  17. 17. v v 29.06.2018 17 Iteration comparison 1→ 5 Hydro income 2050 - 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 1 11 21 31 41 51 Hydropowerincome,mill.NOK Week TIMES L1 52 575 mill NOK - 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 1 11 21 31 41 51 Hydropowerincome,mill.NOK Week EMPS i1 47 665 mill NOK - 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 1 11 21 31 41 51 Hydropowerincome,mill.NOK Week TIMES L5 48 440 mill NOK - 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 1 11 21 31 41 51 Hydropowerincome,mill.NOK Week EMPS i5 47 950 mill NOK
  18. 18. v v • Bi-directional linkage between TIMES-Norway and EMPS provides consistent and improved model results • Electricity generation, including hydropower • Electricity consumption and trade • The results are highly converged after linking iteration 2 • Next steps • How to further improve the linking? • How to improve TIMES-Norway when operating alone? 29.06.2018 18 Concluding remarks
  19. 19. v v Thank you for your attention! Pernille.Seljom@ife.no 19

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