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Analysing smart path scenarios with ETSAP-TIAM

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Analysing smart path scenarios with ETSAP-TIAM

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Analysing smart path scenarios with ETSAP-TIAM

  1. 1. v v Smart paths scenarios with ETSAP-TIAM 71TH SEMI-ANNUAL ETSAP MEETING Maryland, USA 11.07.2017 Pernille Seljom (pernille.seljom@ife.no) & Arne Lind (arne.lind@ife.no)
  2. 2. v v • Design of cost-effective Norwegian climate policy to reach a climate neutral 2050 • Address Smart paths and costly detours towards a sustainable low- emission society • A global CGE model, SNOW, and ETSAP-TIAM are used to address future global scenarios 11.07.2017 Project description 2
  3. 3. v v 11.07.2017 Project description Funded by the Norwegian Research Council Project leader: SSB Research Department Partners: SSB, IFE, BI, +Transdisciplinary Forum Project period: 2017 - 2020 3
  4. 4. v v 11.07.2017 Scenario description trytu Oil demand High Low Normsandpreferences Inertia Rapid shift B - Nissan Leaf D - TeslaC - Tanks A - Prius A - Prius • Renewable Europe • Fossil use in developing countries • CCS • 3 degree by 2050 • Adaptation strategies C - Tanks • EU reach 2030 targets • Unstable world - war • Low R&D • Limited renewables • 2050 – Europe resumes ambitious targets B - Nissan Leaf • Less materialistic values • Prosumers • Rapid growth in low clean technologies • Stagnating POP • < 2 degree by 2050 D - Tesla • Renewable revolution • Technology in focus • Digitalisation • Homogeneous world • Less bio diversity 4
  5. 5. v v 11.07.2017 Scenario description Climate treaty cooperation Oil demand High LowNormsandpreferences Inertia Rapid shift B Ambitious & compliant D C Unambitious & uncompliant A 5
  6. 6. v v • The scenarios is translated to model input to ETSAP-TIAM, • Demand drivers; GDP, POP, + + • Learning curves • Constraints on GHG emissions • Resource availability • Constraints on nuclear and CCS • Regional constraints • + + + • Parts of the input to ETSAP-TIAM is provided by SNOW 11.07.2017 Scenario description 6
  7. 7. v v • Any input, suggestions and/ or advise on: • Linkage of ETSAP-TIAM with a global macro-economic model? • Modelling of extreme scenarios with ETSAP-TIAM? • Are the scenarios interesting? • What can go wrong? • How can we succeed? 11.07.2017 Questions to the ETSAP community 7
  8. 8. v v Thank you for the attention pernille.seljom@ife.no 11.07.2017 8

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