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Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark

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Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark

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Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark

  1. 1. Accounting for climate change- induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark Stefan Petrovic, Olexandr Balyk, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Andrea Marin (DTU) 73rd semi-annual ETSAP meeting, Götheborg 18.06.2018.
  2. 2. • The development of the heating and cooling demands depends on the construction and demolition rates, energy efficiency standards of newly built and renovated buildings as well as behavioral factors. • The factor which has the major influence on the future heating demands is the outdoor temperature. • Development of the outside air temperature is very uncertain, but it is very unlikely that today’s temperature patterns will remain the same in the long-term horizon. • The Danish experience is that every 1 degree Celsius increase reduces the heating demand by 7%. Background Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark
  3. 3. • HDD are calculated for 9 climate models and 2 climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5) for every 11x11 km cell from 2010 to 2050 in 5 year steps. • Future heating demands are calculated by scaling existing heating demands with the ratio of future and current HDD for each 11x11 km cell. • Not all cells are equaly imporatnt – it is important where are the heating demands located. Heating demands are calculated for every 11x11 km cell based on age, use and known location. • Average values from 9 climate models and 2 climate scenarios are used to create inputs to TIMES-DK Methodology Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark
  4. 4. Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark Outdoor temperatures
  5. 5. Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark Potentials and costs of heat savings
  6. 6. Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark COPs of air-source heat pumps
  7. 7. Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark Scaled with HDD Caling of heating demands
  8. 8. Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark • Cheaper system • Less heat savings • More ASHPs • Lower heating demand • Larger (faster) reduction of CO2 emissions Expected results
  9. 9. Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark • No constraints + No climate change/RCP 2.6/RCP 4.5 • Fossil fuel free 2040 + No climate change/RCP 2.6/RCP 4.5 • Fossil fuel free 2050 + No climate change/RCP 2.6/RCP 4.5 Analysed scenarios
  10. 10. Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark • No constraints + No climate change/RCP 2.6/RCP 4.5 • Fossil fuel free 2040 + No climate change/RCP 2.6/RCP 4.5 • Fossil fuel free 2050 + No climate change/RCP 2.6/RCP 4.5 Analysed scenarios
  11. 11. Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark Residential heat supply
  12. 12. Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark Residential heat savings
  13. 13. Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark Objective function
  14. 14. Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark CO2 emissions
  15. 15. Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark • Cheaper system - Yes • Less heat savings - Yes • More ASHPs – No • Lower heating demand - Yes • Larger (faster) reduction of CO2 emissions – No Obtained results • Are the results transferable to other countries?
  16. 16. Thank you for your attention • Questions • Answers • Comments • Suggestions Stefan Petrovic Postdoc Systems Analysis DTU Management Engineering Technical University of Denmark DTU Management Engineering Produktionstorvet Building 426, Room 018 2800 Kgs. Lyngby Denmark Direct +45 46775100 stpet@dtu.dk www.dtu.dk/english Accounting for climate change-induced change in space heating demand: case of Denmark

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