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IDTechEx Research: RFID: 2015 Review and Outlook to 2020


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IDTechEx Research presents a review and outlook for RFID from 2015-2020, including forecasts, market size and trends.

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IDTechEx Research: RFID: 2015 Review and Outlook to 2020

  1. 1. Copyright  ©  IDTechEx | RFID:  2015  Review  and   Outlook  to  2020 IDTechEx  / Raghu  Das,  CEO,  IDTechEx
  2. 2. Copyright  ©  IDTechEx | Forecasts  by  application,  technology,  territory,   value  chain  and  more New  IDTechEx  Research   Covering  the  Entire  Market The  most  comprehensive  research  into  RFID   markets,  with  over  100  tables  dissecting  the  entire   RFID  industry  – historic  and  forecast  sales  and   analysis  of  trends,  suppliers  and  technologies. RFID  Forecasts,  Players  and   Opportunities  2016-­2026
  3. 3. Copyright  ©  IDTechEx | Cumulative  sales  of  tags  from  1943  to  the  start  of  2015 DIGITALLY-­‐ENCODED  RFID  TAGS  ABOVE  0.1cm  RANGE Worldwide  sales  cumulative  numbers  for  cards,  labels,  fobs Total  number    35  billion   (2014  – 7.6  billion  sold) o Passive:     34  billion o Active/RTLS:   1  billion Historic  sales  of  RFID
  4. 4. Copyright  ©  IDTechEx | UHF  (RAIN)  RFID  Tags  Forecast Millions Apparel  will   continue  to   dominate Other  applications   will  grow  (apparel   80%  in  2015  to   about  60%  in  2018) After  apparel,  many   diverse  applications   “asset   management”   but   fragmented  and   varying  volumes,   but  strong  payback   from  high   performance,  low   cost  devices Strong  growth  in   other  retail  items   beyond  apparel
  5. 5. Copyright  ©  IDTechEx | Total  RFID  Market  Size$  Billions 2015  -­ $10.1  Billion  (2014  -­ $9.45  Billion;;  2013  -­ $8.79  Billion)
  6. 6. Copyright  ©  IDTechEx | Retail:  Beyond  apparel Retailers  with  extensive  apparel  RFID  programs  have  been  extending  to  other  items   where  they  can  get  some  payback,  e.g.  soft  furnishings  (M&S),  sports  goods   (Oxylane) UHF  (RAIN)  RFID  performance  for  anti-­theft  is  excellent  – will  be  on  par  with   traditional  EAS  systems  and  therefore  antitheft  will  become  a  driver  for  RFID   As  a  way  to  increase  sales,  item  identification  is  of  interest  in  the  form  of   o better  customer  service  (e.g.  recommending   matching  products,  VIP  service  etc.) o new  marketing  information  that  can  be  gained  that  was  not  readily  available   before  (product  movement  in  store  for  optimal  store  layout),  patterns  in  picking   up  products  then  buying  them,  browsing  habits  etc Many  different  projects  underway   depending   on  the  retailer/products.  Likely  to  be   3  or  more  years  before  high  volume  (e.g.  hundreds   of  millions  tags)  for  non   apparel  retail  item  opportunities  emerge  but  a  good  payback   story  is  brewing.
  7. 7. Copyright  ©  IDTechEx | Sensor  and  data  logger  market “Data  loggers”  comprise  of  a  market  of  hundreds  of  millions  of  dollars  to  prove   compliance  for  insurance  policies  or  asked  for  by  customers  to  their  suppliers.  These   are  expensive  devices,  need  ongoing  calibration,  analytics  etc. RFID  innovation Targeting  existing  and  new  markets  (healthcare,  retail  etc.) One  magnitude   (and  possibly  two)  price  reduction  thanks  to  new  ICs  built  around  existing   RFID  standards  – versions  that  work  at  NFC  and  UHF  (RAIN)  are  available • Standardized  reader  network • Lowers  cost • Supply  chains  know  RFID Focus  is  on  QC/QA  in  retail  to  provide  a  marketable  differentiation.  Some  retailers  in   pilots  now  with  suppliers  using  temperature  sensors  so  that  freshness  can  be  monitored. Others  addressing  healthcare  applications.
  8. 8. Copyright  ©  IDTechEx | Contactless  payments  gain  momentum  – better   marketing  from  credit  card  companies/banks,  wide   spread  adoption  by  retailers  and  other  POS   applications  (such  as  taxis),  support  for  payments   by  Apple  in  iphone 6 Many  NFC  projects  including  with  allied   technologies  such  as  printed  electronics. o Monitors  when  bottle  is  opened   o Provides  different  messaging  for  the  user  when   closed  vs  open o Also  provide  notice  of  anti  counterfeiting  and   product  authenticity NFC Thinfilm Electronics
  9. 9. Copyright  ©  IDTechEx | Other  trends Electronic  Shelf  Labels  (ESLs)  are  a   rapidly  growing  market.  Widespread   adoption  initially  in  countries  where  there   are  heavy  fines  for  incorrectly  labelled   products. Tag  and  reader  providers  move   downstream  to  offer  a  software  element,   usually  cloud  based.  Aiming  to  sell  a   “horizontal”  platform  into  vertical  markets.
  10. 10. Copyright  ©  IDTechEx | Tag  Cost  Comparisons Component Trends/Comments UHF RFID Chip   2011-2014 saw asp fall by an average of around 8% per year due to volume growth. Prices are more stabilized now. Chip  attach  (e.g.  flip   chip) Innovation – speed of IC placement and handling smaller ICs while maintaining yield Adhesive   – chip  to   substrate Target is to increase cure/sinter speed of conductive adhesive which would increase throughput. Antenna  and  substrate   materials Strong innovation Antenna  manufacture   equipment   depreciation,   processing   cost Strong innovation Additionally,  incremental  savings  achieved  by  moving  to  lower  labor cost   territories.  Inlay  manufacture  at  UHF  is  a  commodity  business  
  11. 11. Copyright  ©  IDTechEx | Forecasts  by  application,  technology,  territory,   value  chain  and  more New  IDTechEx  Research   The  most  comprehensive  research  into  RFID   markets,  with  over  100  tables  dissecting  the  entire   RFID  industry  – historic  and  forecast  sales  and   analysis  of  trends,  suppliers  and  technologies. RFID  Forecasts,  Players  and   Opportunities  2016-­2026