Peak everything - Let's face it all Matthis Wackernagel (ICLEI World Congress 2009)


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  • Honor to be part of ICLEI – making huge impact just by creating synergies. Big opportunity – huge pot of gold sitting out there for humanity, and we are too blind to see and grab it. In essence – assuming we are moving into an ecologically constrained world, cities and countries that are not prepared will suffer the consequences. Don’t think about doing good to humanity, focus on your own future (which by the way is also good for humanity).
  • Normal? What’s the upper limit? Collision Course All these parallel trends, do they just mean it is normal? Or are they representing compounding risk? How much more can these curves rise? What’s the consequence? What’s the upper limit?
  • L’humanité utilise aujourd’hui l’équivalent de 1,3 planète pour satisfaire ses besoins. Les scénarios prudents des Nations Unies suggèrent que si cette tendance se poursuit, l’humanité aura besoin de 2 planètes en 2050. Nous ne respectons donc pas notre budget: chaque année, nous prélevons plus de ressources que ce que la Terre peut produire et nous émettons plus de déchets que ce qu’elle peut éliminer. Notre planète ne pourra pas indéfiniment répondre à cette pression croissante. L’avenir de chaque pays dépend ainsi des décisions que ses dirigeants prennent aujourd’hui. L’empreinte écologique évalue les surfaces biologiquement productives (terres et mers) qu’il faut à une population humaine pour obtenir les ressources qu’elle consomme et dégrader les déchets qu’elle produit. Le graphique montre que l’empreinte de l’humanité ne cesse de s’accroître. En 1961, nous consommions 50% de la capacité disponible de la Terre. En 2007, nous utilisions 30% de plus que cette capacité. L’empreinte de certains pays est même cinq fois supérieure à cette moyenne.
  • Supply versus Demand and “ SLOW THINGS FIRST” Moderate United Nations projections suggest that humanity’s footprint will grow to double the Earth’s capacity within five decades. The lifespan of infrastructure put in place today to a large extent determines resource consumption for decades to come, and can lock humanity into this ecologically (and economically) risky scenario. For each investment decision, we can ask ourselves, are we buying ourselves into traps or opportunities.
  • Shows the competition between sectors Future opportunities: What are the wedges needed – these are the emerging markets These are a few examples
  • Assessing Businesses and their Risk Exposure See
  • We’ll show case this through examples from the macro to micro level
  • Peak everything - Let's face it all Matthis Wackernagel (ICLEI World Congress 2009)

    1. 1. Peak Everything: Let’s Face it All – and Win Mathis Wackernagel, PhD ICLEI, June 17, 2009
    2. 3. Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors
    3. 4. Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors
    4. 5. The Ecological Footprint CARBON footprint
    5. 6.
    6. 7. PIONEER COUNTRIES SO FAR <ul><li>Switzerland </li></ul><ul><li>Japan </li></ul><ul><li>United Arab Emirates </li></ul><ul><li>Belgium </li></ul><ul><li>France </li></ul><ul><li>Luxembourg </li></ul><ul><li>Finland </li></ul><ul><li>EU </li></ul>
    7. 8. Humanity’s Ecological Footprint (1961 – 2005)
    8. 9. If this was a business – if this was income and expenditure – what would you do?
    9. 10. My life (1962 – onwards) Annual Deficit adds up to a global Ecological Debt
    10. 11. UN’s Most Moderate Scenario My life
    11. 12. Billion 2003 global hectares 10 Long-term waste 30 2050 is being built today
    12. 13. Calgary
    13. 14. Why UAE?
    14. 15. Sustainability Wedges and an End to Overshoot (WBCSD)
    15. 16. “ London First”: What is the potential for reduction? <ul><li>Total London Ecological Footprint = 50 million gha </li></ul><ul><li>Finding : Possibility of reducing London’s Ecological Footprint by 20-25 million global hectares (gha) </li></ul>London Remade with WSP Environmental, Global Footprint Network
    16. 18. One Planet Community Bioregional
    17. 19. Human Development Index and the Ecological Footprint of Nations Conventional Development
    18. 20. Impact: The Eco-Footprint of a General Retailer (vintage poster facsimile)
    19. 21. Specifics? <ul><li>Consider sustainability as if it was financial wealth (because it will be even more valuable) </li></ul><ul><li>Use science-based metrics that communicate effectively to the public and link choices to consequences </li></ul><ul><li>Build public will by explaining what’s at stake and how late action becomes costly </li></ul><ul><li>Be honest about the need of scale and speed </li></ul><ul><li>Have performance measures that track your speed and scale on a weekly basis </li></ul><ul><li>Link urban transformation with need for long-term investments of pension funds </li></ul>
    20. 22. From nicety to necessity… FOOTPRINT FORUM 2009 THE OPPORTUNITY OF LIMITS Siena, Italy September 9-11
    21. 23. Winning together Get ready for “peak everything” For cities, the benefit of acting is overwhelming. [email_address]