Mekong ARCC - ICEM Study Results Overview - Dr. Jeremy Carew-Reid

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Mekong ARCC - ICEM Study Results Overview - Dr. Jeremy Carew-Reid

  1. 1. 1 Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for Natural and Agricultural Systems Final Regional Workshop 28-29 March 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
  2. 2. Take an ecosystems approach in: 1. Identifying CC impact and vulnerabilities of rural poor and their environment - water resources, food security, livelihoods and biodiversity (fisheries and wildlife); 2. Identifying hot spots in the LMB: provide a scientific evidence base to guide the selection of pilot project sites; 3. Defining adaptation strategies to inform community and ecosystem-based adaptation pilot projects and 4. Communicating the results of the vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning. ICEM - International Centre for Environmental Management 2 ARCC Task 2: CC Vulnerability Assessment & Adaptation Study - Objectives
  3. 3. Outline of presentation • Study approach and methods • Key concepts • Climate change threats • Climate change threat hot spots • Vulnerability of farming systems • Adaptation principles • Basin conclusions ICEM 2012 3
  4. 4. Farming systems climate change vulnerability continuum 4 ICEM, 2012 Intensive farming High productivity Low productivity Natural systems
  5. 5. STUDY METHODS ICEM 2012 5
  6. 6. 6 The climate change adaptation cycle
  7. 7. 7 EXPOSURE SENSITIVTY X = IMPACT ADAPTIVE CAPACITY VULNERABILITY = Vulnerability assessment
  8. 8. 8 Defining the asset inventory – the key species & systems in the LMB THEMATIC APPROACH Key elements in the VA methodology
  9. 9. 9 Quantifying CC threats in ways which are relevant to the area, systems and their species MODELLING HOT SPOT RANKING Key elements in the Threat assessment
  10. 10. 10 Quantifying CC threats in ways which are relevant to the area, systems and their species MODELLING HOT SPOT RANKING Key elements in the Threat Assessment
  11. 11. 11 Characterising the biophysical and socio-economic features, processes and functions of LMB assets SPATIAL ZONING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Key elements in the Baseline assessment Ecozones Sub-catchments Livelihoods Provinces ADAPTATION AUDIT
  12. 12. 12 Characterising the biophysical and socio-economic features, processes and functions of LMB assets • Characterization of system/species thresholds & tolerances to hydroclimate parameters Key elements in the Baseline Assessment SPATIAL ZONING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ADAPTATION AUDIT
  13. 13. 13 Key elements in the Baseline Assessment Characterising the biophysical and socio-economic features, processes and functions of LMB assets SPATIAL ZONING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ADAPTATION AUDIT
  14. 14. 14 Assessing the potential impacts of the threats on the assets CAM SPECIES IMPACT ASSESSMENT Key elements in the Impact Assessment CAM IMPACT ASSESSMENT CROP YIELD & SUITABILITY MODELLING INTEGRATED SPATIAL ANALYSIS
  15. 15. 15 Assessing the potential impacts of the threats on the assets CAM SPECIES IMPACT ASSESSMENT Key elements in the Impact Assessment CAM IMPACT ASSESSMENT CROP YIELD & SUITABILITY MODELLING INTEGRATED SPATIAL ANALYSIS 41% 25% 19% 15%
  16. 16. 16 Assessing the potential impacts of the threats on the assets Habitat name Expert team Wetland name and location Variable Score Confidence Comments/notes/ rational 1 · <75% 2 · >25% and <75% 3 · >25% 1 · <75% 2 · >25% and <75% 3 · >25% 1 · <75% 2 · >25% and <75% 3 · >25% 1 · <75% 2 · >25% and <75% 3 · >25% 1 · pretty sure they will not 2 · 50/50 chance 3 · pretty sure they will 0 Definitions Exposure Habitat Climate Change Exposure and Definitions 1. How much of this habitat type will be exposed to changing hydrology and hydraulics (i.e. flows)? 4. How much of this habitat type will be exposed to sea level rise and changes in the tidal rainstorm events and storm surge? 0 0 3. How much of this habitat type will be exposed to changes in sediment washed down from the watershed, resulting from soil erosion changes? 2. How much of this habitat type will be exposed to changes in extent, depth and duration of inundation from rainfall? 5. Will baseline stress be increased by the new climate in the LMB? Key elements in the Impact Assessment CAM SPECIES IMPACT ASSESSMENT CAM IMPACT ASSESSMENT CROP YIELD & SUITABILITY MODELLING INTEGRATED SPATIAL ANALYSIS
  17. 17. 17 Assessing the capacity of species and systems to recover from the impact ADAPTICE CAPACITY SCREENING CRITERIA Key elements in the VA methodology  Social Factors – Social networks – Insurance – Knowledge and skills  Natural Systems – Species diversity and integrity – Species and habitat tolerance levels  Infrastructure – Availability of material resources (construction and maintenance)  Cross cutting Factors: – The range of available adaptation technologies – Availability and distribution of financial resources – Skills and knowledge – Management and response systems – Political will
  18. 18. 18 Establishing the relative level of vulnerability based on the impact and adaptive capacity VA matrix Key elements in the VA methodology
  19. 19. 19 2. Adaptation planning 1.Reviewthemost vulnerableassets 2.Lookngbackto definetheimpacts whichrequire adaptationresponses 3.Definingthe adaptationoptions 4.Settingprioritities amongoptions 5.Integrating adaptationpriorities 6.Building adaptationpackages intoplansand projects To identify (i) the assets which have been assessed as most vulnerable in the CAM VA process and (ii) the threats to which those assets are most vulnerable For the most vulnerable assets - identify the most significant impacts which will require adaptation responses For each vulnerable assets define a range of adaptation options for the species group, habitats, ecosystems which address the most significant impacts Defining which options (i) are most important, (ii) have the greatest chances of success, (iii) are feasible, (iv) do not have negative effects on other sectors or other adaptations (now or in future). Also, identifying the order of adaptation and needed phasing – or what needs to be done now and what can be left to later Identifying synergies and needed linkages between adaptation priorities. For each priority define key activities Integrate priorities as adaptation packages or projects Prepare strategy for “mainstreaming” into development plans and policies. Preparing Design Management Frameworks for each priority 1.Reviewthemost vulnerableassets 2.Lookngbackto definetheimpacts whichrequire adaptationresponses 3.Definingthe adaptationoptions 4.Settingprioritities amongoptions 5.Integrating adaptationpriorities 6.Building adaptationpackages intoplansand projects To identify (i) the assets which have been assessed as most vulnerable in the CAM VA process and (ii) the threats to which those assets are most vulnerable For the most vulnerable assets - identify the most significant impacts which will require adaptation responses For each vulnerable assets define a range of adaptation options for the species group, habitats, ecosystems which address the most significant impacts Defining which options (i) are most important, (ii) have the greatest chances of success, (iii) are feasible, (iv) do not have negative effects on other sectors or other adaptations (now or in future). Also, identifying the order of adaptation and needed phasing – or what needs to be done now and what can be left to later Identifying synergies and needed linkages between adaptation priorities. For each priority define key activities Integrate priorities as adaptation packages or projects Prepare strategy for “mainstreaming” into development plans and policies. Preparing Design Management Frameworks for each priority
  20. 20. 3. Adaptation implementation 1. Construction andinstalment: rehabilitation, enhancement and avoidance measures 2. Operations: maintenance and repair for resilience 3. Monitoring and enforcement 4. Adjust and renew:based on lessonsand new influences 5. Replicate and reinforce May involve,for example, bioengineering,habitat reconstruction, development control and introduction of economic inceptive schemes, management and consultative structures An essential ongoing investment in maintenance to reinforce the adaptionmeasures installed Monitoring to assess if the adaptation measures are working as expected, and if adjustments and additional measures are needed. Enforcement of environmental and social safeguards and agreed adaptation Make adjustments, major repairsand invest inadditional measure as required in response to changing conditions Innovations at higher levels to policies and procedures, institutional arrangements and planning tools. Replicate in other areas what is workingwell.
  21. 21. STUDY CONCEPTS ICEM 2012 21
  22. 22. ICEM 2012 22 Task 2 study key concepts
  23. 23. Three “shifts” associated with climate change in the LMB ICEM 2012 23 Climate change shifts Ecological shifts Farming system shifts Shifts
  24. 24. Climate change shifts Regular climate shifts 1. Geographic shifts (space):  latitude and longitude  elevation 2. Seasonal shifts (time)  onset and end,  variability Extreme events shifts 3. Extreme event shifts – intensity, regularity, location  Micro events – eg flash flooding and soil loss in uplands  Macro events – eg saline intrusion in Delta; cyclone landfall 24ICEM 2012 Climate change shifts Ecological shifts Farming system shifts Shifts
  25. 25. Geographic shift in climate Paddy rice and commercial crops Shift in zone of suitability for habitat and crops Original extent of natural habitat Remaining natural habitat pockets Subsistence crops and NTF collection 25 ICEM 2012 Shifts
  26. 26. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Daysofoccurenceperyear Dailymaximum temperature (Deg C) Baseline Climatechange Temperatures below 20 °C will not occur Temperatures between 20 – 29 °C will occur less often Temperatures between 29 – 44°C will occur more often Temperatures above 44 ° C will start occurring Mean of maximum temperatures will increase from 27 – 30 °C 10 20 30 40 50 60 Daysofoccurenceperyear Baseline Climatechange Mondulkiri - average daily maximum temperature shift
  27. 27. Ecological shifts due to cc in the LMB • Geographic shift in species ranges • Substantial range losses • Seasonal shifts in life cycle events (eg. advances in flowering and fruiting, fish and bird migration) • Community composition changes: Warm-adapted species in communities increase – others die out • Body size changes - warming associated with decreased body size • Genetic changes (eg tolerance shifts; stress proteins) ICEM 2012 28 Climate change shifts Ecological shifts Farming system shifts Shifts
  28. 28. Farming ecosystem shifts – climate and ecological changes will lead to, for example: • Diminished ecological provisioning services:  Increased reliance on hybrids  Diminished wild genetic diversity  Reduced crop diversity  Reduced availability and access to NTFPs  Reduced water availability • Diminished regulatory and habitat services  Reduced pollination and pest control  Reduced soil organic (carbon) content  Reduced soil micro fauna and flora • Systems requiring more intensive inputs ICEM 2012 29 Climate change shifts Ecological shifts Farming system shifts Shifts
  29. 29. 30 ICEM 2012 Comfort zones
  30. 30. 31 ICEM 2012 Comfort zones
  31. 31. Optimal growing conditions: mean annual precipitation 32 ICEM 2012 Species comfort zones
  32. 32. Ecosystem comfort zone: The range of precipitation or temperature that was experienced during 50% of the baseline around the mean. ICEM 2012 33 Ecosystem comfort zones Mid elevation dry broadleaf forest - Mondulkiri 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 BaselineWet Season (Jun-Nov) CCWet Season (Jun-Nov) BaselineDry Season (Dec- May) CCDry Season (Dec - May) Dailymaximumtemperature(DegC) Figure5 C. Z. C. Z.
  33. 33. CLIMATE CHANGE THREATS ICEM 2012 34
  34. 34. Climate Change Temperature 35 • Changes are greatest in wet season – Wet season: 1.7 – 5.3 °C – Dry Season: 1.5 – 3.5 °C • Areas of greatest change: – 3S catchments of eastern Cambodia – Mekong Delta of Vietnam and Cambodia,
  35. 35. Climate Change Rainfall • Annual precipitation is projected to increase by 3-18% (35 – 365mm) throughout the basin • Mostly due to increases in wet season rainfall • For the southern parts of the basin increased seasonal variability in rainfall – wetter wet season, drier dry season 36
  36. 36. Elevation shifts temperature & rainfall • Temperature comfort zones are shifting up-hill • Rainfall comfort zones are shifting down-hill • Change in rainfall is also increasing with elevation 37 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Elevationbasinaverageprecipitation(mm) Elevation Elevation Baseline average precipitation CCaverage precipitation 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Elevationbasinaveragemaxtemp(DegC) Elevation Elevation Baseline max temp CCmax temp
  37. 37. Hydro biological seasons & flood pulse • Wet season: start 1-2 weeks earlier and last 2- 4weeks longer • Dry season: start 1-3 weeks later and be 1-3weeks shorter • Transition to flood (Season A): start <1 week earlier and be 1-2 weeks shorter • Upstream Vientiane: Largest delay in onset of the dry season. & the largest increase in flood season duration 38
  38. 38. Climate Change Hydrology 39 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 Jan Jan Mar Apr May May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Averagedailydischarge(m3/s) KRATIE PAKSE MUKDAHAN NAKHOM PHANOM VIENTIANE CHIANG SAEN LUANG PRABANG • Earlier onset of the flood season • Increase in flood peak • Long duration flood season BASELINE CLIMATE CHANGE • The variability of the Mekong flood pulse will increase with climate change • The increasing variability will be greater downstream of Vientiane
  39. 39. Climate Change Agricultural Drought 40 • Severe drought is centered on NE Khorat Plateau • Largest increases in drought in Mekong floodplain in Cambodia & southern Lao PDR
  40. 40. Climate Change average annual flooding • s 41 • Mekong Delta • Max. flood depth>1.0m increases from45% to 57% of Delta (+650,000ha) – mostly Bac Lieu, Ca Mau • 1.0m Flood duration >4months will expand to +75,000 ha- mostly Can Tho, Vinh Long, Soc Trang, Bac Lieu • Cambodian Floodplain • Smaller changes in flood depth/duration than in the Delta • Most significant increase is in extreme flood depths (>2.0m) • Increased depth and duration of floods in the Vietnamese Delta and Cambodian floodplains
  41. 41. CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT HOT SPOTS ICEM 2012 42
  42. 42. Hotspots identification % change in seasonal temperature and rainfall for each area Rank areas by maximum % change in seasonal temperature or rainfall Hotspot areas selected for Mekong ARCC climate change impact and vulnerability assessments Rank provinces in terms of highest increase in flood duration Focus adaptation efforts on areas most exposed to climate change threats Integrate and orient study analysis and findings Provide a scientific basis for the selection of focal areas for Task 3 Areas ranked: ecozones, provinces, catchments, protected areas
  43. 43. Ranking by % average temperature Change in wet season PA name Country 1. Bi Dup Nui Ba Vietnam 2. Kon Ka Kinh Vietnam 3. Chu Yang Sin Vietnam 4. Lomphat WS Cambodia 5. Chu Prong Vietnam 6. Dong Ampham Laos 7. Phnom Prich WS Cambodia 8. VIRACHEY NP Cambodia 9. Phnom Nam Lyr WS Cambodia 10. Ta Dung Vietnam 11. Mondulkiri BGCA Cambodia 12. SNUOL WS Cambodia 13. Mom Ray Vietnam 14. Nam Nung Vietnam 15. Phu Luang Laos 16. Phou Kateup Laos 17. Xe Sap Laos 18. Phou Kathong Laos 19. Xe Khampho Laos 20. Yok Don Vietnam Ranking by % average temperature Change in dry season PA name Country 1. Bi Dup Nui Ba Vietnam 2. Phnom Prich WS Cambodia 3. SNUOL WS Cambodia 4. Kon Ka Kinh Vietnam 5. Phnom Nam Lyr WS Cambodia 6. Chu Yang Sin Vietnam 7. Nam Nung Vietnam 8. Ta Dung Vietnam 9. Mondulkiri BGCA Cambodia 10. Lomphat WS Cambodia 11. VIRACHEY NP Cambodia 12. Phu Luang Laos 13. Muong Phang Vietnam 14. Nam Ca Vietnam 15. Phou Kateup Laos 16. Dong Ampham Laos 17. Yok Don Vietnam 18. Xe Khampho Laos 19. Phou Kathong Laos 20. Tinh Doi Vietnam To 20 PAs by climate change threat
  44. 44. Priority provinces
  45. 45. IMPACT AND VULNERABILITY ICEM 2012 46
  46. 46. Gia Lai rainfed lowland rice baseline Area planted = 47,000 ha Yield = 3.4 t/ha Production = 159,000 tonne Agriculture
  47. 47. By 2050 rice yields in Gia Lai may reduce by 13% • Baseline production = 159,000 tonne • Decrease in production by 2050 = 20,000 tonne Rice highly sensitive to: • Temperature increase during anthesis phase in dry season induces sterility • Lower number of grains • Increases in diurnal minimum temperature reduces biomass Agriculture
  48. 48. Robusta coffee • Grown in Bolaven plateau • More recently grown in the Vietnamese Central Highlands using groundwater • High yields in Central Highlands - Gia Lai, Kon Tum and Dak Lak Agriculture
  49. 49. Current high yield and production areas in Central Highlands will decrease in suitability e.g. In Dak Lak 5,000km2 will decrease in suitability Suitability will increase in north of the basin – e.g. 2,500km2 in Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai Agriculture
  50. 50. Bos indicus raised primarily for draught in rural areas throughout the Basin High density in Cambodian floodplain Livestock
  51. 51. Bos indicus stressed in temperatures over 35 Deg C Currently not stressed anywhere in the basin Livestock
  52. 52. Bos indicus comfort zone will be exceeded in 30,100 km2 of Cambodia and Thailand Reduced ability to work, negatively affecting household livelihoods through loss of draught power for rent and reduced support to subsistence farming Livestock
  53. 53. Capture Fisheries • Changes in rainfall will increase river flows and strengthen the pulse effect which will benefit many migratory white fish species. • Others species adapted to particular habitats will be negatively impacted. • E.g. minimum dry season water levels in the mainstream Mekong around Vientiane, Luang Prabang and Chiang Sen are projected to increase by 30cm. • This will result in important in-river habitats being submerged for longer periods each dry season – eventually reducing the extent and productivity of this key seasonal wetland habitat and its capacity to support specialist migratory fish.
  54. 54. Aquaculture • Intensive aquaculture will come under pressure from climate change. •E.g. Pangasius culture in Vietnam. • Farmers have already pushed production levels of this fish, to the limit that the environment and their systems allow. • Higher temperatures will place additional stress on the these systems, forcing farmers to reduce stocking densities and feeding rates further, resulting in lower production.
  55. 55. NTFP collection-resin tree Natural systems
  56. 56. Resin Tree : Dipterocarpus alatus • Habitats : along riverbanks, bottom of ridges, swampy areas in dry dipterocarp, dry evergreen, lower moist evergreen, semi-evergreen, evergreen forests • Flowering : March-May, Fruiting : April-June • Resin collection : only in summer (April-May) • Elevation range : 100-800 m asl • Temperature range : optimal 22-32˚C, absolute 10-36˚C, can grow in areas with max temperature up to 45 ˚C • Rainfall range : optimal rainfall 3,500-4,500 mm/yr, absolute 3,000- 5,200 mm/yr, found in areas 1,000-2,000 mm/yr Baseline vulnerability = Moderate CC vulnerability = High Vulnerable Prediction: Climate change will significantly increase the vulnerability Climate key threats  increase in temperature enhances forest fire; forest fires kill seedlings and lower volume and quality of resin/oil  extreme events (storms and high winds) kill seedlings and affect the trees which are improperly tapped and hole maintained  extreme droughts enhance insect attacks (longhorn beetles) and also lower seed germination rate
  57. 57. Trapaengs Ecosystems
  58. 58. 59 Impact on ecosystems: drying out of trapaengs and other wetlands during the dry season
  59. 59. Ecological shifts in the Mondulkiri PA cluster: • Accelerating loss of populations & species (extreme temperatures, coupled with drying - a significant driver of biodiversity loss) • New „problem‟ species entering communities • Reorganisation of plant and animal communities • Geographic range shifts eastward and some upwards (?) and range losses A transformation of the ecosystems ICEM 2012 60 Ecosystem shifts
  60. 60. KEY BASIN WIDE CONCLUSIONS ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS 61
  61. 61. • Increase in temperatures will reduce yield • Increase in temperatures will generate altitude shift • Increasing rainfall will be beneficial to crops in dryer areas but detrimental to crops in already wet areas • Increased crop damage will be generated by increasing extreme events (flood, flashfloods, storms or dry spells ) • Climate change will increase food security risk in the basin for subsistence and commercial systems 62 Agriculture Key basin wide conclusions on potential impacts
  62. 62. • Nutritional problems will increase for low-input „local‟ breed systems reducing value • Increase in risk of infectious disease affecting overall productivity • Temperature increases will increase costs of production, in small/medium „commercial‟ systems, particular for high performance breeds • Climate change coupled with increasing grazing of domestic animals in protected areas will increase incidence of disease outbreaks in wild species 63 Key basin wide conclusions on potential impacts Livestock
  63. 63. Fisheries 64 • Under the projected climate change, the best we can hope for from Mekong capture fisheries is that current production levels will be maintained. • The intensive lowland aquaculture systems will not be able to cope with the more extreme conditions, and will producing less. • Although aquaculture will become more viable in new, higher elevation areas this is unlikely to compensate for the lost production from the lowlands. • Total fish production in the Mekong basin is likely to decline over the next 30 years. • With a regional population growth rate of around 1%, per capita fish consumption rates will also certainly fall • Efforts must be made immediately to implement adaptation measures to offset the effects of climate change
  64. 64. Natural systems • Climate change, in concert with other stresses will lead to losses in productivity of NTFPs and loss of species from the basin and specific areas. • Similarly, losses in CWR species are likely from the basin • Ecosystem shifts (transformations will occur throughout the basin resulting in different species mixes and population distributions. • Some protected areas will degrade to the point of losing their conservation value – others will change to the extent they no longer represent critical habits • If natural systems are not stressed or changed by human activities, they can adapt naturally and shift in response to climate change 65 Key basin wide conclusions on potential impacts
  65. 65. Health and infrastructure • Exposure of rural communities to water and vector born diseases will increase, affecting isolated poor most with limited access to health facilities. • More intense and regular extreme flooding and flashfloods will impact negatively on poorly designed and maintained rural infrastructure • The poor are most vulnerable. Groups whom are marginally above the poverty line are also at risk of losing livelihood assets through extreme events and, consequently, falling back into poverty 66
  66. 66. ADAPTATION ICEM 2012 67
  67. 67. Adaptation principles 1. Integrate adaptation across sectors 2. Address the adaptation deficit 3. Maintain and enhance diversity 4. Build on past adaptation 5. Avoid maladaptation 6. Adaptation as a cyclical and interactive process ICEM 2012 68
  68. 68. Adaptation – an integrated approach The aim – to increase resilience in vulnerable communities and areas through packages of linked measures: 1. Engineering options (eg dykes, drainage systems) 2. Sector specific adaptation practices (eg design standards for roads, crop diversification, new hybrids) 3. Natural systems management (eg rehabilitation, enhancement and species conservation programs) 4. Land use planning (eg zoning and development controls) 5. Economic instruments (eg subsidies and tax incentives) 6. Traditional local strategies (eg seed storage and ponds) 7. Social responses (including resettlement and migration) 8. Institutional options: all require associated institutional and administrative innovations 69
  69. 69. Sectors and local communities are already “adapting”  A region of climate extremes and variability  Adaptive management shaping farming practices and to suit local conditions  Learning from past experience in each locality and attempting to adjust livelihoods to cope with extremes  A continuing process of rebuilding, upgrades and adjustment  BUT – a great backlog of basic development, maintenance and repair needs 70 Adaptation deficit
  70. 70. 71
  71. 71. 72 Adaptation as a cyclical and iterative process: Don‟t have to do everything at once Set sharp priorities Take a phased approach Adapt now with future stages in mind Repair and adjust with changing conditions
  72. 72. 73 Jeremy Carew-Reid, ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Management www.icem.com.au

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