ICEF Monitor: Emerging Markets - Student Mobility Trends from South-Asia

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This is a portion of a presentation given by Mr Syed Abidi at the ICEF Higher Education Workshop in Dublin, September 2012. The report highlights the education market size and opportunities in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, including key factors in student mobility over the years and predictions for the future.

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ICEF Monitor: Emerging Markets - Student Mobility Trends from South-Asia

  1. 1. Emerging MarketsStudent Mobility Trends from South-Asia SYED ABIDI Tamgha-e-Imtiaz, “Medal of Excellence” Chairman, All Pakistan Education Consultants Association (APECOP), Pakistan 1
  2. 2. The Geographyo Key Countries chosen o India o Pakistan o Bangladesho The other 4-5 countries in the SAARC region are not covered as the above 3 are large sub-continental countries with substantial coastline in the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.o Very nominal volumes of student migratory movements and/or a lack of data from other 4 or 5 SE countries. 2
  3. 3. South Asia – Why Bangladesh, India and Pakistano World’s 1/4th population lives in South Asia, majority in Bangladesh, India and Pakistano All 3 have been under colonial legacyo Economic liberalization reforms in Bangladesh (1990), India (1990) and in Pakistan (1989)o Symmetry in Education systems/structureo Growth in British and American schooling. e. g. GSCE and IBo English as official second languageo History of migration due to colonial ruleo Close ties to UK and other OECD countrieso Relative ease of operating in this environment as compared to Afghanistan, Iran, etc. 3
  4. 4. South Asia – BangladeshEducation Market Overview 4
  5. 5. South Asia – Bangladesh Education Market Overviewo There are 5 types of higher education available in the country: General Education, Science, Technology and Engineering, Medicine, Agriculture and Distance Educationo Degrees awarded at bachelors level are of 2 types; 3 years pass degree and a 4 years Bachelors (Honors)o The pass bachelors do their masters in 2 years while the Honor graduates do the same in 1 yearo Government is focused on expanding budget allocation on higher education and several recommendations have been made to the Parliament and a number of programs are underway 5
  6. 6. South Asia – Bangladesh Market Size and Opportunitieso Despite opposition from UGC the country’s caretaker government recently passed a law that allows private individuals and institutions to establish foreign campuses with prior permissiono To avoid mushroom growth of the off campus branches these can be established at the certified places onlyo Private universities in Bangladesh have taken a phenomenal shape and are playing a key role with increasing opportunities in higher educationo Cross border education is now a reality in Bangladesh offering opportunities to international service providerso British Council has played a key role with a bigger share working with UGC to attract British institutions to enter into collaborations/links 6
  7. 7. South Asia – Bangladesh Market Size and Opportunitieso Distance learning is another option under focus with UGC to expand HE sector increasing opportunities for students who cannot travel abroado Currently University of London offers a range of courses in Bangladesh through British Councilo UGC supported by World Bank and Ministry of Education has set up Bangladesh Research and Education Network (BdREN). This project has a credit agreement of USD 81 million and shall enhance teaching, learning and boost research and allocate funds for public sector universitieso It is expected to integrate Bangladeshs universities in the globalized world of knowledge 7
  8. 8. South Asia – Bangladesh Market Indicatorso It is beyond any doubt that Bangladesh needs to revamp its higher education sector and in doing so would require international supporto The government of Bangladesh has formulated a 20 year strategic plan for higher education with the support of World Bank, which is an indication of this reality and possibility of additional resource mobilization for the HE sectoro The government has a clear agenda to improve quality in higher education with main focus on Science, Technology and Research in the next 10 years 8
  9. 9. South Asia - BangladeshMarket Segmentation Categories of Education system in Bangladesh 9
  10. 10. South Asia - Bangladesh Education Market OverviewDistribution of HE Institutions 10
  11. 11. South Asia – IndiaEducation Market Overview 11
  12. 12. South Asia – India Education Market Overviewo Education has long been receiving the major wallet share of the Indian middle classo Education is regarded as the only market towards which Indians are not price sensitiveo The Indian middle class is expected to expand significantly, from 300 million people today to 583 million in 2025o As Indians continue to climb the economic ladder, the composition of their spending will likely change significantlyo Spending on education is expected to grow by 11% over 20 years to 9% of household income 12
  13. 13. South Asia – India Education Market Overviewo UGC (University Grants Commission) is the apex regulator for higher education in Indiao Not only does India have the largest target market in the world, but also the fastest growing market, resulting in a “Demographic Dividend” for higher education playerso 8% of the institutes in higher education are privately ownedo Engineering and Management are the predominant courses offered by colleges in Indiao India added nearly 20,000 colleges in a decade from 12,800 in 2000- 2001 to 33,000 in 2010-2011 which translates to more than 150% growth. Number of DAIs has also doubled from 256 to 554 in the same period 13
  14. 14. South Asia – India Market Size and Opportunitieso India’s education sector currently offers an estimated USD 40 bn market with a potential 16% 5 year CAGR, and is expected to grow to a mammoth USD 116 bn market in 10 yearso More than 1200 private engineering colleges, 300 business schools and more than 140 private medical colleges in India o Represents a USD 7 bn market o Engineering takes the major share USD 5.85 bn or 83% of the total o After K-12, private professional colleges form the single biggest category in Indian educationo Education market in India is projected to grow by almost 3 times in next 10 years 14
  15. 15. South Asia – IndiaA Growing HE Target Market 15
  16. 16. South Asia – India Market Size and Opportunities Studying Abroado India has 27,000 foreign students and a very high number of Indian students are travelling overseas for higher educationo More than USD 13bn is spent every year by about 450,000 Indian students on higher education abroado Higher education segment is expected to witness significant activity in terms of foreign partnership with Indian players scaling up in terms of technology and course contents to match the competitiono Corporate/PEs Investment in vocational training and technology enabled learning have the potential to enhance the scale of this segment 16
  17. 17. South Asia – India Market Size and Opportunities International Collaborationso Government is planning to set up an exclusive agency to be called Higher Education Quality Council for monitoring and granting licenses to foreign service providers interested in entering Indiao Several collaborations already exist between Indian HEIs, Academia and Foreign Institutions. Opportunities for joint research, twinning and student exchange also existo Almost 161 foreign education providers and 143 Indian institutes have entered collaborations to offer 641 programs at various levels and across disciplines (mainly undergraduate) 17
  18. 18. South Asia – India Market Segmentation Foreign CollaborationsType of Type ofIndian ForeignInstitute InstitutePrivate: Private:83% 34%Public: Public:14% 57%Others: 3% Others: 9% 18
  19. 19. South Asia – IndiaHE Market Segmentation 19
  20. 20. South Asia – India Market Indicatorso The education market in India will Growth in Higher Education Institutions remain robust and will keep growing for at least for a couple of decadeso The government education policy is beginning to reflect increased government spending on educationo Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s statement after the launch of 11th 5-year plan (2007-2012) “I have no hesitation in calling this plan a national education plan” confirms special focus on education 20
  21. 21. South Asia - PakistanEducation Market Overview 21
  22. 22. South Asia - Pakistan Education Market Overviewo Primary and Secondary education is under the Federal Ministry of Education, distributed down to provincial governments education departments in each provinceo The higher education sector is controlled and regulated by HEC (Higher Education Commission of Pakistan) founded in 2002o HEC is responsible for higher education policy, quality assurance, degree recognition, development of new institutions and monitoring of all existing higher education institutions in Pakistano Currently Pakistan has 22,650,000 students enrolled at primary level 2,884,400 at secondary level and 1,349,000 at higher education/collegeo There are 62 private sector universities (Chartered by HEC) and 74 public sector universities both federal and provincial 22
  23. 23. South Asia - PakistanMarket Segmentation Proportion of Student Enrolments by Institution Type 23
  24. 24. South Asia - Pakistan Market Size and Opportunitieso Pakistanis take education seriously. They spend more time in school and colleges and graduate at a higher rate than their Indian counterparts in 15+ age group (Report of Harvard researchers)o Substantial demand exists from students, parents and employers with willingness to pay for quality private education (AUSTRADE and British Council)o Private institutions are seeking affiliation with universities abroad to ensure they offer information and training of international standards 24
  25. 25. South Asia - Pakistan Market Size and Opportunitieso Despite increased restrictions by UKBA, HESA figures put Pakistan among one of the top 6 which accounts for 54% of UK’s (non-EU) international studentso Although the growth in total number of Pakistanis studying abroad has slowed down since 9/11, the numbers of foreign students in US, EU and Asian countries continue to growo Post 9/11 Pakistani students in the US declined from a peak of 8,644 students, ranked 13th in 2001-02 still ranks 23rd with 5,222 students 25
  26. 26. South Asia - Pakistan HE Market Size and OpportunitiesHE Sector Student Population 26
  27. 27. South Asia - Pakistan Market Size (GCSE)o More than 1,348,930 students pass the standard high school examination every year against a 673,567 of Bachelor degree placements available in Pakistan (Public and Private – 2011)o Approximately 50% students look to alternative placements or study abroad opportunitieso A growth of 44% is also seen on the British GCSE qualifications in the last 3 years, the bulk of which seeks overseas placement 27
  28. 28. Student Mobility – Key Factorso Developing countries especially in South Asia have an under-supply of university places to satisfy demand and as a result, students have no other choice but to study abroado A total of 3.3 million students are studying abroad, forecast to rise to 5.8 million by 2025o 65% of the students will come from Asia, dominated by China and India, then South Korea, Japan, Turkey, Morocco and Malaysiao Fastest growth from Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Vietnam and Nigeriao Most popular destinations: USA (22%), UK (11%), Germany 9%, France and Australia each 7%. China has 5%o Increasing number are fee payingo Government policies encourage international student mobility 28
  29. 29. Student Mobilityo International student mobility constitutes the main form of cross border higher educationo Cross border higher education has increased significantly in the past decade and have diversified beyond the traditional form of student mobilityo All signs indicate that this will continue to grow in the upcoming decades unless there is a sudden halt in globalization due to political crisiso Statistical data reveals that OECD will continue to remain the number one hosting area for international studentso Major countries China, South Asia and Indonesia will probably continue to drive internationalization growth 29
  30. 30. Student Mobility – Current Scenarioo Year 2012 is expected to be yet another growth year for international student mobility worldwideo Main resource countries still remain India and China but influx of students from new emerging markets such as Saudi Arabia and Brazilo Although student mobility is expected to grow, institutions will have to compete hard for talented and self-funded studentso A strategic, deliberate and informed recruitment approach will help institutions to maximize their opportunities in an efficient manner 30
  31. 31. Student Mobility – WorldwideStudent Mobility Worldwide 1975-2007 with Projections looking forward to 2030 31
  32. 32. Factors Impacting Student Mobility – 1o Pakistan has recently become the top market for Australia in vocational trainingo This may be attributed to their new streamlined visa process or the prospect of working and claiming permanent residenceo Australian Bureau of Statistic reveals that earnings from the top 12 markets all fell last year, topped by India which slumped by 37% but Pakistan bucked the trend, with revenue rising 15% to USD 253 milliono Australian diplomas at private colleges cost about AUS$ 9000o This gives them advance standing in university degree, which conferred the right to work for two years after graduating 32
  33. 33. Factors Impacting Student Mobility – 2o More than 195,000 students from India were studying overseas in 2009-10.o The key five destinations were US, UK, Australia, New Zealand and Russia.o According to very recent statistics a shift has been seen by Indian students towards Europe, Canada, Singapore and China.o A slump of almost 77% was witnessed by Indians choosing Australia in 2010- 11 followed by the attacks on Indians in 2009. Clampdown on vocational training courses was another factor.o Canada has recently emerged as a hotspot for Indian students. The country issued more than 12,000 study permits in 2010-11 against 3,152 in 2008.o In the EU, France is absorbing a steady increase of at least 20% - mainly attributed to more than 200 scholarships handed out to Indian students.o Singapore has seen a rise of nearly 20% since 2009, mainly due to flourishing offshore campuses of renowned institutions acting as launching pad. 33
  34. 34. Current Trends in Student Mobility India & Pakistan Country Share Indian Students – Country Wise Share Germany Canada 2007-08: 3,572 2008: 3,152 2008-09: 3,516 2009: 6,283 2009-10: 4,070 2010: 12,000 Australia UK 2008: 47,638 US 2008: 27,000 2009: 54,5742007-08: 37,892 2009: 57,000 2010: 12,4832008-09: 26,890 2010: 41,350 New Zealand2009-10: 25,783 2008: 4,790 2009: 5,353 2010: 6,801 34
  35. 35. South Asia Popular Courses & Specialty Areaso South Asia is predominantly a PG market. However undergraduate are on the rise in view of increasing numbers of British qualificationso Institutional links have also played a key role for transfer of undergraduate students to host institutions Subject wise Indian students going to UK Pakistan: Top 10 Most Popular Postgraduate Subjects7000 (2009/10) (2009-10)60005000 PG4000 UG300020001000 0 35
  36. 36. Education Market – Key StakeholdersBangladesh INDIA Pakistan UK USA UK USA UK Australia Australia Australia Malaysia Canada EU Canada India Canada USA China Singapore EU --- --- China 36
  37. 37. Emerging Market Student Mobility Trends from South-Asia Executive Summaryo Future Government policies shall dictate international student mobilityo Globalization of Higher Education is now unstoppable, whatever be the current policies of the governments in South Asiao English Speaking countries will be the preferred destinations for exploring overseas educationo Undergraduate courses (though heavy on investment) will be the preferred choice given the economy in the UK and USA is down at the momento There is the expectation that at the end of graduation, the economy will improve and UKBA will relax its ruleso Education institutions in the West (USA, UK, Canada) and in the East (Australia and Singapore) will emerge as the destinations for overseas education for students from South Asiao TNE and Distance Learning has also a great future as the economies in these countries get further liberalized. The success of offshore campuses in Middle East and Singapore shall dictate the future of TNE in years to come 37
  38. 38. Glossary of Referenceso Education at a Glance (UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS), World Bank, UNAIDS)o Education Statistics (www.moedu.gov.bd)o HEC (www.hec.gov.pk)o Higher Education in India at a Glance – 2010-11 (UGC)o Higher Education to 2030 -VOLUME 2 – GLOBALISATION (COECD - entre for Educational Research and Innovation)o Indian student mobility to selected European countries-an Overview by Shahana Mukherjee (Indian Institute of Management – Bangalore)o PAKISTAN EDUCATION STATISTICS 2010-11 (NATIONAL EDUCATION MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM, GOP)o Private sector participation in Indian higher education (FICCI Higher Education Summit 2011)o Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh -2010 (www.bbs.gov.bd)o UGC – Bangladesh (www.ugc.gov.bd)o UGC – India (www.ugc.ac.in/)o World Banko World Data on Education 2010-11 (UNESCO & IBE) 38

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