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Trade flows, corridors and supply chains?
Marc Auboin
Economic Research, World Trade Organization
• Because it is more globalized: there are more business cycles, and these can be
offsetting one another
• Because manufacturing as a share of GDP/demand is slowing relative to services.
Manufacturing goods, which account for the bulk of world trade, are more
tradable than services
• Because the most trade intensive component of aggregate demand, such as
investment and exports, have been growing slower than the less trade intensive
components (consumption)
• Not because GVCs are maturing, although GVC trade has been slow (structural
changes in GVC composition)
Why is trade slowing down?
• Share of intermediates in trade is
levelling off but no major de-
globalization in sight
• Share of parts and components in
manufactures is also very stable
• However, with the reallocation of
labour intensive activities, countries
such as China is moving up the value
chain, while other players are picking
the labour intensive parts of
production and trade
No retreat from globalization, but share of manufactures in trade, GDP may
have played a role in declining elasticity
Intermediate goods and parts and components shares in world trade,
2000-2015
Global Value Chain participation is levelling off, but depends on regions
40455055
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Globalvaluechainspartecipation-percent
Source: WTO
Evolution of average import content of aggregate demand components for
all sample countries
Demand and trade-intensity of demand. The most trade intensive
component of demand, investment, is not doing too well: advanced versus
emerging and developing countries
Source: WTO
Thank you!

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ICC BANKING COMMISSION JAKARTA 2017: Day 1(wed 5 April) 10:15 - Trade Flows, Corridors and Supply Chains

  • 1. Trade flows, corridors and supply chains? Marc Auboin Economic Research, World Trade Organization
  • 2.
  • 3. • Because it is more globalized: there are more business cycles, and these can be offsetting one another • Because manufacturing as a share of GDP/demand is slowing relative to services. Manufacturing goods, which account for the bulk of world trade, are more tradable than services • Because the most trade intensive component of aggregate demand, such as investment and exports, have been growing slower than the less trade intensive components (consumption) • Not because GVCs are maturing, although GVC trade has been slow (structural changes in GVC composition) Why is trade slowing down?
  • 4.
  • 5. • Share of intermediates in trade is levelling off but no major de- globalization in sight • Share of parts and components in manufactures is also very stable • However, with the reallocation of labour intensive activities, countries such as China is moving up the value chain, while other players are picking the labour intensive parts of production and trade No retreat from globalization, but share of manufactures in trade, GDP may have played a role in declining elasticity Intermediate goods and parts and components shares in world trade, 2000-2015
  • 6. Global Value Chain participation is levelling off, but depends on regions 40455055 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Globalvaluechainspartecipation-percent Source: WTO
  • 7. Evolution of average import content of aggregate demand components for all sample countries
  • 8. Demand and trade-intensity of demand. The most trade intensive component of demand, investment, is not doing too well: advanced versus emerging and developing countries Source: WTO