Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Pardey et al -turkey bgri stripe rust (4-28-2014)

444 views

Published on

Published in: Business, Technology
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Pardey et al -turkey bgri stripe rust (4-28-2014)

  1. 1. The Global Occurrence and Economic Consequences of Stripe Rust in Wheat Philip Pardey, Yuan Chai, Jason Beddow, Terry Hurley, Darren Kriticos and Hans Joachim-Braun University of Minnesota, CSIRO, and CIMMYT Second International Wheat Stripe Rust Symposium Regional Cereal Rust Research Center, Izmir, Turkey April 28, 2014
  2. 2. Stripe Rust: Bio-economic cum Policy Questions  What is the global extent of this disease? • Where is it likely to occur and persist?  What share of global wheat area and production is susceptible to the disease?  What is the likely global losses in wheat production associated with this disease?  What are the global research investment implications of this disease?
  3. 3. Losses Attributed to Wheat Rust Will Stem Rust Destroy the World’s Wheat Crop? “…it is unlikely that stem rust race Ug99 or its descendants will destroy the world’s wheat crop” Singh et al. (2008, p.305) “This *stem rust+ is a time bomb…Ug99 is going to lie there, and then all of the sudden its going to go boom.” Quote attributed to Borlaug (Science 2009, p. 721.) Implied losses in 2009/10 attributed to wheat stem rust: 43.2 to 302.4 MMT Fisher et al. (Nature 2012, Table s1) “*Stripe rust+ losses can be severe (50%) due to shriveled grain and damaged tillers. In extreme situations, stripe rust can cause 100% losses.” Roelfs et al. (CIMMYT 2002, p.2)
  4. 4. Stem Rust – Global Assessment Summary Climate suitability of stem rust Suitable Persists Reported Occurrence
  5. 5. Source: Pardey et al. (2013) from USDA (various years) Average 2.5% per year Stem Rust – Global Assessment Summary Stochastic Structure of U.S. Losses Attributed to Stem Rust Average 0.29% per year
  6. 6. Stem Rust – Global Assessment Summary Climate suitability of stem rust Suitable Persists A sustained investment of $51.1 million per year (2010 prices) in stem rust research could be justified economically
  7. 7. Historical and Current Stripe Rust Threats • Historically, stripe rust has mainly been endemic only in cool climate regions • In recent decades, stripe rust has spread rapidly to areas previously unaffected Before 2000 After 2000 0 Not recorded, or no response 1 Rare 2 Localized in some seasons 3 Localized in most seasons 4 Widespread in some seasons 5 Widespread in most seasons N = 29
  8. 8. U.S. Wheat Yield Losses Attributed to Stripe Rust
  9. 9. U.S. Wheat Yield Losses Attributed to Stripe Rust 1960 2012
  10. 10. Global Stripe Rust Occurrence
  11. 11. Modeling Pests and Diseases- A Spatial Approach
  12. 12. CLIMEX Modeled Suitability for Stripe Rust (Beta) Suitable Persists
  13. 13. Observed and Modeled Occurrence of Stripe Rust
  14. 14. Observed and Modeled Occurrence of Stripe Rust
  15. 15. Observed and Modeled Occurrence of Stripe Rust
  16. 16. Observed and Modeled Occurrence of Stripe Rust
  17. 17. Observed and Modeled Occurrence of Stripe Rust Area Production Region Suitable Persists Suitable Persists (percent) North America 59.9 16.9 63.1 18.6 sub-Saharan Africa 82.6 81.2 83.0 82.0 LAC 85.0 83.0 89.7 88.5 Asia 59.1 32.9 69.4 39.2 FSU 66.2 9.7 78.9 15.7 Australasia 53.3 45.9 55.6 48.0 World 72.0 42.0 79.4 51.2
  18. 18. Stochastic Structure of U.S. Losses Attributed to Stripe Rust The changing structure of stripe rust epidemics  1961-1984: significant yield losses  1985-1999: use of resistant cultivars and fungicide  Since 2000: new stripe rust pathotypes 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 PercentLoss Average 0.54% per year Average 0.15% per year Average 1.5% per year
  19. 19. Global Stripe Rust Losses Estimates Reference Period Counterfactual Loss Average annual losses (million metric tons) Value of the annual losses (million U.S. $ per year)* 1961-84 none 1.04 $186 1985-99 none 0.53 $95 2000-12 none 5.77 $1,032 Reference Period Counterfactual Period Losses Averted (million metric tons) Value of the benefits (million U.S. $ per year)* 1961-84 1985-99 0.74 $132 1985-99 1985-99 0 0 2000-12 1985-99 5.15 $922 * 2010 average US wheat prices No Loss Counterfactual Low Loss (1985-1999) Counterfactual
  20. 20. Approach  Estimate of annual investments to avert projected losses (costs) attributable to stripe rust through to 2048  Ninety five percent chance of realizing a modified internal rate of return of at least 10 percent per year Economically Justified R&D Spending (2010 prices)  $36.8 million per year, or 17.1 cents per hectare (with a no loss counterfactual)  $32.9 million per year, or 15.3 cents per hectare (with a low loss counterfactual) Comparative (Stem rust) Information • Economically justified investment in stem rust was $51.1 million per year • U.S. wheat farmers spent $15.75 per hectare on seed Economically Justifiable R&D Investment
  21. 21. Summing Up  Earlier assessment suggests that around $50 million per year on average be invested in research to avert prospective global losses from stem rust, double what is being spent of late  Evidence suggests a change in the spatial pattern and magnitude of wheat yield losses attributable to stripe rust • Around 72 percent of the world’s wheat area is susceptible to this disease  Beta assessment suggests that around $35 million per year (about two-thirds the corresponding stem rust research investment) be spent to alleviate global losses from stripe rust, substantially more than would have been justified several decades ago
  22. 22. Thanks

×