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THEME – 2 Adaption of potato crops to climate change


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THEME – 2 Adaption of potato crops to climate change

  1. 1. R . S c h a f l e i t n e r 1 J. R a m i re z 2 A . J a r v i s 2 D. Ev e rs 3 R . G u t i e r re z 4 M . S c u r ra h 4 1 A V R D C – T h e W o r l d V e g e t a b l e C e n t e r, Ta i w a n 2 C I AT, C o l o m b i a 3 C R P - G a b r i e l L i p p m a n n , L u x e m b o u r g 4 C I P P e r u Adaption of the potato crop to climate change Walter Amoros
  2. 2. AVRDC – The World Vegetable Center  Founded in 1971 as the Asian Vegetable Research and Development Center with a regional research focus on Asia  Our research and development is nonprofit  Our research outputs are global public goods  The World Vegetable Center has an expanding global role with a growing network of regional offices Alleviate poverty and malnutrition in the developing world through the increased production and consumption of health-promoting vegetables.
  3. 3. • Vegetable production generates higher farm income and more jobs than other crops • Especially suited for small farms and women farmer • Vegetable value chains strengthen the rural economy Vegetables are healthy – and a path out of poverty
  4. 4. AVRDC – The WORLD Vegetable Center Headquarters Africa Central America East & Southeast Asia South Asia Central & West Asia and North Africa Oceania
  5. 5. Our Crop Portfolio Solanaceae: − Tomato − Pepper − Eggplant Bulb Alliums: − Onion − Garlic − Shallot  Legumes: − Mungbean − Vegetable soybean Crucifers: − Pak Choi − Broccoli Cucurbits: − Cucumber − Pumpkin Indigenous vegetables
  6. 6. AVRDC Themes Germplasm Breeding Production Consumption 60,000 accessions 150 vegetable species Adapted lines suitable for smallholder farmers for variety and hybrid development Production technologies, disease resistance genes, integrated pest management Postharvest, nutritional value, access to markets, promoting healthy diets
  7. 7. AVRDC Biotech - Molecular breeding  Molecular marker technologies for genebank scientists, breeders and pathologists  Population development, wide crosses, embryo rescue  Genetic engineering Enhance efficiency, effectiveness and economy of cultivar improvement
  8. 8. Potato and Climate Change  Global temperatures are likely to rise  Precipitation patterns are likely to change  Potato is sensitive to heat and drought Potato production is likely to be affected by climate change
  9. 9. Potato and Climate Change  Which climatic effect will affect potato production where and to which extent?
  10. 10. Climate changes projections for potato growing regions Baseline  Averages 1960 – 2000 of monthly max, min. and mean temperatures and precipitation  Resolution of 30-arcsecond (~1 km), reduced to 5-arcminute (10 km) Future climate  Statistically downscaled output of Global Circulation Models 2010-2039  SRES-A2 emission scenario “business as usual”
  11. 11. Potato production areas Summer potato in temperate zones: 45° N – 57°N Winter potato in subtropical lowlands: 23° N – 34° N 25% of the potato area > 1000 m altitude
  12. 12. Present and future climate suitability for potato production EcoCrop model (based on FAO database of crop ecological requirements) Parameters:  Tkill: Temperature at which the crop will die  Tmin: Minimum temperature at which the crop will grow  Topmin: Minimum optimum temperature at which the crop grows  Topmax: Maximum optimum temperature at which the crop grows  Tmax: Maximum temperature at which the crop will grow  Rmin: Minimum amount of rain water required for the crop to grow  Ropmin: Minimum optimum amount of rain water required for the crop to grow  Ropmax: Maximum optimum amount of water for the crop to grow  Rmax: Maximum amount of rain water below which the crop grows  Gmin: Minimum length of the growing season  Gmax: Maximum length of the growing season.
  13. 13. Present and future climate suitability for potato production EcoCrop model (based on FAO database of crop ecological requirements)  Separate suitability indices for temperature and rainfall  Computing final suitability rating by multiplying temperature and precipitation suitabilities
  14. 14. Present climate suitability for potato
  15. 15. Present climate suitability for potato
  16. 16. Current climatic limitations for potato
  17. 17. Predicted suitability 2020
  18. 18. Predicted suitability 2020 • Highest reduction in suitability in tropical highlands & southern Africa • Large gains in suitability in high latitudes or high tropical altitudes • Net change: +1.3 % suitability
  19. 19. Potential benefits from improved stress tolerance 1) Heat tolerance (+2.5°C)  Climate change impact reduction on 65% of current potato area  Expansion to 15.5 million hectares of new area 2) Cold tolerance (-2.5°C)  Plus 8.7 million hectares of new suitable area 3) Drought tolerance (25% less water requirement)  Benefit for 2.8 million hectares – overlapping with heat stress tolerance impact areas
  20. 20. Conclusion  CC predictions suggest potato yield reductions in the tropics and large gains in high latitudes  Reducing temperature sensitivity would have largest impact on CC adaptation of the potato crop
  21. 21. Suitability Modeling for Vegetable Production  Scattered production area  Microclimates  Irrigated  Protected agriculture
  22. 22.