Grain Production Adaptability toClimate Change in ChinaInternational Conference on Policies for Water and FoodSecurity in ...
Administrativeregions:31 provinces,autonomousregions andmunicipalities (notincludingHk,Macao andTaiwan) 2861countiesThe nu...
Land Characteristics by TopographicFeatureLand Char act er i st i cs By Topogr aphi cFeat ur e ( 9, 600, 000sq. km/ 100%)3...
Water Distribution
Agricultural Characteristics in ChinaInternationalConferenceonPoliciesforWaterandFoodSecurityinDryAreas–24-26June,Cairo,Eg...
Features of the case studyInternationalConferenceonPoliciesforWaterandFoodSecurityinDryAreas–24-26June,Cairo,Egypt8
Water crisis in north China’sagricultural sector• Increasing water scarcity• Competition between:• -- farmers and others• ...
Drought and agricultural productionYearDisaster-affectedareas(1000hectares)Disasterareas(1000hectares)Cropfailureareas(100...
The map of Grain yield and irrigation ratioThe distribution map of unit yield inChinese counties in 2008The irrigation lev...
The map of Grain yield and stable-harvestingratiosThe distribution map of unit yield inChinese counties in 2008The stable-...
The grain yield in most of counties is between 3500 kg/hectareand 7500 kg/hectareThe grain yield is positively related t...
Empirical Model and Results Equation Data ResourcesThe data is collected from unit yield panel data in allcounties in 20...
实证模型及结果——模型设定
Results10% lowest grain yield counties25% lowest grain yield countiesCounties with the median grain yield75% highest g...
Current Situation of IrrigationInfrastructure in Rural Area
ConclusionFirstly, under other input factors unchanged, in all quantile regressionmodels, the contribution coefficients o...
Thanks for listeningQuestions, comments and suggestions are welcome
China: Adapting Grain Production to Climate Change
China: Adapting Grain Production to Climate Change
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China: Adapting Grain Production to Climate Change

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China: Adapting Grain Production to Climate Change

  1. 1. Grain Production Adaptability toClimate Change in ChinaInternational Conference on Policies for Water and FoodSecurity in Dry Areas24th to 26th of June, Cairo, EgyptLiujing
  2. 2. Administrativeregions:31 provinces,autonomousregions andmunicipalities (notincludingHk,Macao andTaiwan) 2861countiesThe number oftotal population is1.370536875billion(till2010.11.100:00amincludingHk,Macao andTaiwan)
  3. 3. Land Characteristics by TopographicFeatureLand Char act er i st i cs By Topogr aphi cFeat ur e ( 9, 600, 000sq. km/ 100%)33%26%19%12%10%Mount ai nsPl at eausBasi nsPl ai nsHi l l s
  4. 4. Water Distribution
  5. 5. Agricultural Characteristics in ChinaInternationalConferenceonPoliciesforWaterandFoodSecurityinDryAreas–24-26June,Cairo,Egypt5Grain, 76.5Oil-bearing, 7.3Cotton, 3.8Sugar, 1.1Vegetable, 4.3Orchards, 3.51990 Unit: %Grain, 68.1Oil-bearing, 8.5Cotton, 3.1Sugar, 1.2Vegetable, 12.1Orchards, 7.32011The percentage of sown area of major corps in 1990 and 2011Data: China Statistical Yearbook 2012
  6. 6. Features of the case studyInternationalConferenceonPoliciesforWaterandFoodSecurityinDryAreas–24-26June,Cairo,Egypt8
  7. 7. Water crisis in north China’sagricultural sector• Increasing water scarcity• Competition between:• -- farmers and others• -- upstream and downstream• Inefficient water useInternationalConferenceonPoliciesforWaterandFoodSecurityinDryAreas–24-26June,Cairo,Egypt9
  8. 8. Drought and agricultural productionYearDisaster-affectedareas(1000hectares)Disasterareas(1000hectares)Cropfailureareas(1000hectares)Grain loss(100 millionkg)Difficult toaccessdrinkingwater(10,000people)Livestockdifficult toaccessdrinkingwater(10,000heads))1950-1980 18790.97 6731.26 75.161981-2009 24805.28 12716.38 2739.55 252.88 2745.76 2139.141990-2009 24992.11 13182.10 2755.36 277.85 2745.76 2139.141950-2009 21697.89 9624.07 2739.55 161.06 2745.76 2139.141950~2009 Drought Statistics in ChinaSource:Calculated according to 2009 China Flood and Drought Bulletin
  9. 9. The map of Grain yield and irrigation ratioThe distribution map of unit yield inChinese counties in 2008The irrigation level distribution inChinese counties in 2008Data source: 2008 Agricultural Statistics Resources in Chinese Counties (Cities)Cartographic software: ArcGIS 9.3
  10. 10. The map of Grain yield and stable-harvestingratiosThe distribution map of unit yield inChinese counties in 2008The stable-harvesting level distributionin Chinese counties in 2008Data source: 2008 Agricultural Statistics Resources in Chinese Counties (Cities)Cartographic software: ArcGIS 9.3
  11. 11. The grain yield in most of counties is between 3500 kg/hectareand 7500 kg/hectareThe grain yield is positively related to the irrigation ratioSimilarly, the stable-harvest ratio is positively related to the grainyieldDescriptive Statistical Analysis——Grain yield, irrigation and stable-harvestingratios
  12. 12. Empirical Model and Results Equation Data ResourcesThe data is collected from unit yield panel data in allcounties in 2007 and 2008. After compiling, 2008 effectivesample counties with the unit yield and the irrigation ratiowere selected. 1825 effective sample counties with thestable-harvesting ratio and unit yield were selected——Modelingitittijijtjit SeirriIrriXYield    lnln 0
  13. 13. 实证模型及结果——模型设定
  14. 14. Results10% lowest grain yield counties25% lowest grain yield countiesCounties with the median grain yield75% highest grain yield counties10% highest grain yield counties
  15. 15. Current Situation of IrrigationInfrastructure in Rural Area
  16. 16. ConclusionFirstly, under other input factors unchanged, in all quantile regressionmodels, the contribution coefficients of unit yield by the irrigationratio and the stable-harvesting ratio are the significant positive at 5%.Secondly, for the lowest unit yield group (10% lowest unit yieldgroup), improving the irrigation conditions and increasing irrigationareas and stable-harvesting areas have the most significant influenceson increasing grain unit yield.Thirdly, the contribution ratios to the unit yield made by the stable-harvesting ratio are higher than the irrigation ratios.
  17. 17. Thanks for listeningQuestions, comments and suggestions are welcome

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