SlideShare a Scribd company logo

Session 7 a pabilonia paper presented by gao

Parallel session IARIW 2014

1 of 17
Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia 
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 
Pabilonia.Sabrina@bls.gov 
Presented by: Qin Gao 
Fordham University 
aqigao@fordham.edu
Measuring work hours (and nonfarm 
business sector labor productivity) in the US 
 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 
 Hours worked by wage and salary employees – Current 
Employment Statistics (CES) program 
 Includes the incorporated self-employed 
 Hours worked by non-employees – Current Population 
Survey (CPS) 
 Unincorporated self-employed workers (the majority 
and focus of this paper) 
 Unpaid family workers 
 Workers at government enterprises (?)
Research Questions 
 Hours worked by the unincorporated self-employed have 
varied considerably each quarter, and this volatility is a 
source of much of the quarterly movement in overall labor 
productivity. 
 This paper: 
1) examines how closely the volatility in the unincorporated 
self-employment hours series correlates with the changes 
in macroeconomic conditions during 1979–2013. 
2) Compares weekly hours worked by the unincorporated 
self-employed from CPS with time diaries from 2003–2013 
American Time Use Survey (ATUS).
Findings 
1) Work hours of the unincorporated self-employed are 
procyclical 
 Associated with increases in GDP and decreases in 
unemployment rate 
 GDP or unemployment rate, along with a time trend can 
explain a great deal of the variation in work hours 
 Growth rate in work hours is also procyclical 
2) ATUS more accurate than CPS in capturing work hours of 
the unincorporated self-employed 
 Over report in CPS prior to Great Recession, and under 
report since (though statistically non-significant) 
 Less accurate reports than wage and salary workers
Business Cycles and Self-Employment: 
2 Competing Theories 
The “push” theory and countercyclical hypothesis: 
 Self-employment is chosen when it is difficult to find a job as 
an employee (i.e. unemployment high and GDP not 
growing). 
The “pull” theory and procyclical hypothesis: 
 Entrepreneurs have certain abilities that make them 
particularly suited for self-employment, but there is less 
incentive for them to start up a business when there is higher 
risk of failure. 
 Outcome depends on whether the “push” or “pull” is 
stronger.
Current Population Survey (CPS) Data 
 Monthly household survey 1979-2013 
 Respondents aged 15+ report hours worked on main job and 
secondary jobs. 
 “Last week, were you employed by government, by a private 
company, a nonprofit organization, or were you self-employed?” 
 If self-employed, “Is this business incorporated?” 
 Secondary job not asked about prior to 1994 redesign, but asked 
about in 1994-2003 
 BLS applied adjustment to pre-1994 hours to account for the lack of 
information from multiple jobholders. 
 OLS regressions 
 DV=log quarterly unincorporated self-employed hours (N=140) 
 IVs=macroeconomic condition (GDP or unemployment rate); time 
trend
Ad

Recommended

Eric Winegardner: Recruiting & Placement Strategies
Eric Winegardner: Recruiting & Placement StrategiesEric Winegardner: Recruiting & Placement Strategies
Eric Winegardner: Recruiting & Placement StrategiesPearson North America
 
US Talent Market Monthly May 2014
US Talent Market Monthly May 2014US Talent Market Monthly May 2014
US Talent Market Monthly May 2014Kelly Services
 
US Talent Market Monthly February 2014
US Talent Market Monthly February 2014US Talent Market Monthly February 2014
US Talent Market Monthly February 2014Kelly Services
 
US Talent Market Monthly March 2014
US Talent Market Monthly March 2014US Talent Market Monthly March 2014
US Talent Market Monthly March 2014Kelly Services
 
US Talent Market Monthly April 2014
US Talent Market Monthly April 2014US Talent Market Monthly April 2014
US Talent Market Monthly April 2014Kelly Services
 
Session 8 a presentazione andreoli lefranc
Session 8 a presentazione andreoli lefrancSession 8 a presentazione andreoli lefranc
Session 8 a presentazione andreoli lefrancIARIW 2014
 
最新的Post
最新的Post最新的Post
最新的PostRock Deep
 

More Related Content

Viewers also liked

Session 4 b ayllon
Session 4 b ayllonSession 4 b ayllon
Session 4 b ayllonIARIW 2014
 
材料啊啊啊啊
材料啊啊啊啊材料啊啊啊啊
材料啊啊啊啊Rock Deep
 
Manual practico elenafernandez y edelmira fernande zpptx
Manual practico elenafernandez y edelmira fernande zpptxManual practico elenafernandez y edelmira fernande zpptx
Manual practico elenafernandez y edelmira fernande zpptxlunitafernandez
 
102c.1 print.ai
102c.1 print.ai102c.1 print.ai
102c.1 print.aiRock Deep
 
Session 7 b d s rambaldi
Session 7 b d s rambaldiSession 7 b d s rambaldi
Session 7 b d s rambaldiIARIW 2014
 
Session 6 b garner ruser of ag growth iairw 2014
Session 6 b garner ruser of ag growth iairw 2014Session 6 b garner ruser of ag growth iairw 2014
Session 6 b garner ruser of ag growth iairw 2014IARIW 2014
 
Manual practico elenafernandez y edelmira fernande zpptx
Manual practico elenafernandez y edelmira fernande zpptxManual practico elenafernandez y edelmira fernande zpptx
Manual practico elenafernandez y edelmira fernande zpptxlunitafernandez
 
Potting of electromagnets in steel mills with dc silicone elastomers
Potting of electromagnets in steel mills with dc silicone elastomersPotting of electromagnets in steel mills with dc silicone elastomers
Potting of electromagnets in steel mills with dc silicone elastomersProject Sales Corp
 
Plenary session 3 3 tim smeeding stik iariw
Plenary session 3 3 tim smeeding stik iariwPlenary session 3 3 tim smeeding stik iariw
Plenary session 3 3 tim smeeding stik iariwIARIW 2014
 
Session 2 b iariw discussion -ruggles
Session 2 b iariw discussion -rugglesSession 2 b iariw discussion -ruggles
Session 2 b iariw discussion -rugglesIARIW 2014
 
Plenary session 3 iariw sessie 3
Plenary session 3 iariw sessie 3Plenary session 3 iariw sessie 3
Plenary session 3 iariw sessie 3IARIW 2014
 
102 c large print
102 c large print102 c large print
102 c large printRock Deep
 
Session 7 b commentson daneilkerpaperonukr&d servicelives2014iariw[1]
Session 7 b commentson daneilkerpaperonukr&d servicelives2014iariw[1]Session 7 b commentson daneilkerpaperonukr&d servicelives2014iariw[1]
Session 7 b commentson daneilkerpaperonukr&d servicelives2014iariw[1]IARIW 2014
 
Session 4 b motiram
Session 4 b motiramSession 4 b motiram
Session 4 b motiramIARIW 2014
 

Viewers also liked (15)

Session 4 b ayllon
Session 4 b ayllonSession 4 b ayllon
Session 4 b ayllon
 
材料啊啊啊啊
材料啊啊啊啊材料啊啊啊啊
材料啊啊啊啊
 
Manual practico elenafernandez y edelmira fernande zpptx
Manual practico elenafernandez y edelmira fernande zpptxManual practico elenafernandez y edelmira fernande zpptx
Manual practico elenafernandez y edelmira fernande zpptx
 
102c.1 print.ai
102c.1 print.ai102c.1 print.ai
102c.1 print.ai
 
Session 7 b d s rambaldi
Session 7 b d s rambaldiSession 7 b d s rambaldi
Session 7 b d s rambaldi
 
Session 6 b garner ruser of ag growth iairw 2014
Session 6 b garner ruser of ag growth iairw 2014Session 6 b garner ruser of ag growth iairw 2014
Session 6 b garner ruser of ag growth iairw 2014
 
Manual practico elenafernandez y edelmira fernande zpptx
Manual practico elenafernandez y edelmira fernande zpptxManual practico elenafernandez y edelmira fernande zpptx
Manual practico elenafernandez y edelmira fernande zpptx
 
Potting of electromagnets in steel mills with dc silicone elastomers
Potting of electromagnets in steel mills with dc silicone elastomersPotting of electromagnets in steel mills with dc silicone elastomers
Potting of electromagnets in steel mills with dc silicone elastomers
 
Plenary session 3 3 tim smeeding stik iariw
Plenary session 3 3 tim smeeding stik iariwPlenary session 3 3 tim smeeding stik iariw
Plenary session 3 3 tim smeeding stik iariw
 
Session 2 b iariw discussion -ruggles
Session 2 b iariw discussion -rugglesSession 2 b iariw discussion -ruggles
Session 2 b iariw discussion -ruggles
 
Plenary session 3 iariw sessie 3
Plenary session 3 iariw sessie 3Plenary session 3 iariw sessie 3
Plenary session 3 iariw sessie 3
 
Рій "НЕПЕРЕМОЖНІ", гімназії №9
Рій "НЕПЕРЕМОЖНІ", гімназії №9Рій "НЕПЕРЕМОЖНІ", гімназії №9
Рій "НЕПЕРЕМОЖНІ", гімназії №9
 
102 c large print
102 c large print102 c large print
102 c large print
 
Session 7 b commentson daneilkerpaperonukr&d servicelives2014iariw[1]
Session 7 b commentson daneilkerpaperonukr&d servicelives2014iariw[1]Session 7 b commentson daneilkerpaperonukr&d servicelives2014iariw[1]
Session 7 b commentson daneilkerpaperonukr&d servicelives2014iariw[1]
 
Session 4 b motiram
Session 4 b motiramSession 4 b motiram
Session 4 b motiram
 

Similar to Session 7 a pabilonia paper presented by gao

Employment trends sas project
Employment trends   sas projectEmployment trends   sas project
Employment trends sas projectMohan Babu
 
Trang Hoang_Research Paper
Trang Hoang_Research PaperTrang Hoang_Research Paper
Trang Hoang_Research PaperTrang Hoang
 
Reflection Paper On Work Life Balance
Reflection Paper On Work Life BalanceReflection Paper On Work Life Balance
Reflection Paper On Work Life BalancePaper Writer Hickory
 
38  Monthly Labor Review  •  June 2012TelecommutingThe.docx
38  Monthly Labor Review  •  June 2012TelecommutingThe.docx38  Monthly Labor Review  •  June 2012TelecommutingThe.docx
38  Monthly Labor Review  •  June 2012TelecommutingThe.docxlorainedeserre
 
Factors affecting employee performance in the civil service a case study of...
Factors affecting employee performance in the civil service   a case study of...Factors affecting employee performance in the civil service   a case study of...
Factors affecting employee performance in the civil service a case study of...Newman Enyioko
 
Hubbard macro6e ppt_ch09
Hubbard macro6e ppt_ch09Hubbard macro6e ppt_ch09
Hubbard macro6e ppt_ch09mrbagzis
 
Minimum wages the effects on employment and labour-force turnover.docx
Minimum wages the effects on employment and labour-force turnover.docxMinimum wages the effects on employment and labour-force turnover.docx
Minimum wages the effects on employment and labour-force turnover.docxbunnyfinney
 
DCR Trendline October 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report
DCR Trendline October 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply ReportDCR Trendline October 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report
DCR Trendline October 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Reportss
 
The Effects of Unemployment Benefits on Unemployment and Labor Force Particip...
The Effects of Unemployment Benefits on Unemployment and Labor Force Particip...The Effects of Unemployment Benefits on Unemployment and Labor Force Particip...
The Effects of Unemployment Benefits on Unemployment and Labor Force Particip...Luis Taveras EMBA, MS
 
lec10 unemployment.pptx
lec10 unemployment.pptxlec10 unemployment.pptx
lec10 unemployment.pptxbayhehua
 
International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI)
International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI)International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI)
International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI)inventionjournals
 
Predictors of sickness absence and presenteeism: Does the pattern differ by a...
Predictors of sickness absence and presenteeism: Does the pattern differ by a...Predictors of sickness absence and presenteeism: Does the pattern differ by a...
Predictors of sickness absence and presenteeism: Does the pattern differ by a...Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitos
 
Bba 2 be ii u 3.2 unemployment
Bba 2 be ii u 3.2 unemploymentBba 2 be ii u 3.2 unemployment
Bba 2 be ii u 3.2 unemploymentRai University
 
GW HSTA- Foual, Providenti, Roach.pptx
GW HSTA- Foual, Providenti,  Roach.pptxGW HSTA- Foual, Providenti,  Roach.pptx
GW HSTA- Foual, Providenti, Roach.pptxMostafaFoual
 
Econimicdownturnee Persp
Econimicdownturnee PerspEconimicdownturnee Persp
Econimicdownturnee Perspshrm
 

Similar to Session 7 a pabilonia paper presented by gao (20)

28
2828
28
 
Chapter 13 unemployment
Chapter 13 unemploymentChapter 13 unemployment
Chapter 13 unemployment
 
Employment trends sas project
Employment trends   sas projectEmployment trends   sas project
Employment trends sas project
 
Trang Hoang_Research Paper
Trang Hoang_Research PaperTrang Hoang_Research Paper
Trang Hoang_Research Paper
 
Reflection Paper On Work Life Balance
Reflection Paper On Work Life BalanceReflection Paper On Work Life Balance
Reflection Paper On Work Life Balance
 
Lfpr
LfprLfpr
Lfpr
 
38  Monthly Labor Review  •  June 2012TelecommutingThe.docx
38  Monthly Labor Review  •  June 2012TelecommutingThe.docx38  Monthly Labor Review  •  June 2012TelecommutingThe.docx
38  Monthly Labor Review  •  June 2012TelecommutingThe.docx
 
Factors affecting employee performance in the civil service a case study of...
Factors affecting employee performance in the civil service   a case study of...Factors affecting employee performance in the civil service   a case study of...
Factors affecting employee performance in the civil service a case study of...
 
Hubbard macro6e ppt_ch09
Hubbard macro6e ppt_ch09Hubbard macro6e ppt_ch09
Hubbard macro6e ppt_ch09
 
Minimum wages the effects on employment and labour-force turnover.docx
Minimum wages the effects on employment and labour-force turnover.docxMinimum wages the effects on employment and labour-force turnover.docx
Minimum wages the effects on employment and labour-force turnover.docx
 
DCR Trendline October 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report
DCR Trendline October 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply ReportDCR Trendline October 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report
DCR Trendline October 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report
 
The Effects of Unemployment Benefits on Unemployment and Labor Force Particip...
The Effects of Unemployment Benefits on Unemployment and Labor Force Particip...The Effects of Unemployment Benefits on Unemployment and Labor Force Particip...
The Effects of Unemployment Benefits on Unemployment and Labor Force Particip...
 
lec10 unemployment.pptx
lec10 unemployment.pptxlec10 unemployment.pptx
lec10 unemployment.pptx
 
International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI)
International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI)International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI)
International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI)
 
Predictors of sickness absence and presenteeism: Does the pattern differ by a...
Predictors of sickness absence and presenteeism: Does the pattern differ by a...Predictors of sickness absence and presenteeism: Does the pattern differ by a...
Predictors of sickness absence and presenteeism: Does the pattern differ by a...
 
Bba 2 be ii u 3.2 unemployment
Bba 2 be ii u 3.2 unemploymentBba 2 be ii u 3.2 unemployment
Bba 2 be ii u 3.2 unemployment
 
Bba 2 be ii u 3.2 unemployment
Bba 2 be ii u 3.2 unemploymentBba 2 be ii u 3.2 unemployment
Bba 2 be ii u 3.2 unemployment
 
GW HSTA- Foual, Providenti, Roach.pptx
GW HSTA- Foual, Providenti,  Roach.pptxGW HSTA- Foual, Providenti,  Roach.pptx
GW HSTA- Foual, Providenti, Roach.pptx
 
Econimicdownturnee Persp
Econimicdownturnee PerspEconimicdownturnee Persp
Econimicdownturnee Persp
 
unemployment
unemploymentunemployment
unemployment
 

More from IARIW 2014

Session 7 d sakuma discussion
Session 7 d sakuma discussionSession 7 d sakuma discussion
Session 7 d sakuma discussionIARIW 2014
 
Session 7 d iariw 2014 session 7 d gueye and gruetz
Session 7 d iariw 2014 session 7 d gueye and gruetzSession 7 d iariw 2014 session 7 d gueye and gruetz
Session 7 d iariw 2014 session 7 d gueye and gruetzIARIW 2014
 
Session 7 d iariw 2014 session 7 d schmidt and heil
Session 7 d iariw 2014 session 7 d schmidt and heilSession 7 d iariw 2014 session 7 d schmidt and heil
Session 7 d iariw 2014 session 7 d schmidt and heilIARIW 2014
 
Session 7 d dutch revisioniariw
Session 7 d dutch revisioniariwSession 7 d dutch revisioniariw
Session 7 d dutch revisioniariwIARIW 2014
 
Session 7d van devenpresentation
Session 7d van devenpresentationSession 7d van devenpresentation
Session 7d van devenpresentationIARIW 2014
 
Session 7 c presentation session 7 c xuguang song & yafei wang
Session 7 c presentation session 7 c   xuguang song & yafei wangSession 7 c presentation session 7 c   xuguang song & yafei wang
Session 7 c presentation session 7 c xuguang song & yafei wangIARIW 2014
 
Session 7 c global corporate income
Session 7 c global corporate incomeSession 7 c global corporate income
Session 7 c global corporate incomeIARIW 2014
 
Session 7 a coli tartamella
Session 7 a coli tartamellaSession 7 a coli tartamella
Session 7 a coli tartamellaIARIW 2014
 
Session 7 a 20140829 rotterdam bruckmeier
Session 7 a 20140829 rotterdam bruckmeierSession 7 a 20140829 rotterdam bruckmeier
Session 7 a 20140829 rotterdam bruckmeierIARIW 2014
 
Session 7 a fantozzi raitano discussion_gv
Session 7 a fantozzi raitano discussion_gvSession 7 a fantozzi raitano discussion_gv
Session 7 a fantozzi raitano discussion_gvIARIW 2014
 
Session 7 b bobbio et al service lives paper 7 b iariw discussion
Session 7 b bobbio et al service lives paper 7 b iariw discussionSession 7 b bobbio et al service lives paper 7 b iariw discussion
Session 7 b bobbio et al service lives paper 7 b iariw discussionIARIW 2014
 
Session 7 b 2014 08-29 voskob wu
Session 7 b 2014 08-29 voskob wuSession 7 b 2014 08-29 voskob wu
Session 7 b 2014 08-29 voskob wuIARIW 2014
 
Session 7 b 7 b role of capital in india’s economic growth
Session 7 b 7 b   role of capital in india’s economic growthSession 7 b 7 b   role of capital in india’s economic growth
Session 7 b 7 b role of capital in india’s economic growthIARIW 2014
 
Session 7 b iariw oulton 290814
Session 7 b iariw oulton 290814Session 7 b iariw oulton 290814
Session 7 b iariw oulton 290814IARIW 2014
 
Session 7 c de haan measuring global production in na_bp
Session 7 c de haan measuring global production in na_bpSession 7 c de haan measuring global production in na_bp
Session 7 c de haan measuring global production in na_bpIARIW 2014
 
Session 7 c iariw august14 erumban
Session 7 c iariw august14 erumbanSession 7 c iariw august14 erumban
Session 7 c iariw august14 erumbanIARIW 2014
 
Session 8 a iariw discussion clark paper -ruggles
Session 8 a iariw discussion clark paper -rugglesSession 8 a iariw discussion clark paper -ruggles
Session 8 a iariw discussion clark paper -rugglesIARIW 2014
 
Session 8 a iariw discussion wolfson paper -ruggles
Session 8 a iariw discussion wolfson paper -rugglesSession 8 a iariw discussion wolfson paper -ruggles
Session 8 a iariw discussion wolfson paper -rugglesIARIW 2014
 
Session 8 a presentation decancq-zoli
Session 8 a presentation decancq-zoliSession 8 a presentation decancq-zoli
Session 8 a presentation decancq-zoliIARIW 2014
 
Session 8 a presentation soli
Session 8 a presentation soliSession 8 a presentation soli
Session 8 a presentation soliIARIW 2014
 

More from IARIW 2014 (20)

Session 7 d sakuma discussion
Session 7 d sakuma discussionSession 7 d sakuma discussion
Session 7 d sakuma discussion
 
Session 7 d iariw 2014 session 7 d gueye and gruetz
Session 7 d iariw 2014 session 7 d gueye and gruetzSession 7 d iariw 2014 session 7 d gueye and gruetz
Session 7 d iariw 2014 session 7 d gueye and gruetz
 
Session 7 d iariw 2014 session 7 d schmidt and heil
Session 7 d iariw 2014 session 7 d schmidt and heilSession 7 d iariw 2014 session 7 d schmidt and heil
Session 7 d iariw 2014 session 7 d schmidt and heil
 
Session 7 d dutch revisioniariw
Session 7 d dutch revisioniariwSession 7 d dutch revisioniariw
Session 7 d dutch revisioniariw
 
Session 7d van devenpresentation
Session 7d van devenpresentationSession 7d van devenpresentation
Session 7d van devenpresentation
 
Session 7 c presentation session 7 c xuguang song & yafei wang
Session 7 c presentation session 7 c   xuguang song & yafei wangSession 7 c presentation session 7 c   xuguang song & yafei wang
Session 7 c presentation session 7 c xuguang song & yafei wang
 
Session 7 c global corporate income
Session 7 c global corporate incomeSession 7 c global corporate income
Session 7 c global corporate income
 
Session 7 a coli tartamella
Session 7 a coli tartamellaSession 7 a coli tartamella
Session 7 a coli tartamella
 
Session 7 a 20140829 rotterdam bruckmeier
Session 7 a 20140829 rotterdam bruckmeierSession 7 a 20140829 rotterdam bruckmeier
Session 7 a 20140829 rotterdam bruckmeier
 
Session 7 a fantozzi raitano discussion_gv
Session 7 a fantozzi raitano discussion_gvSession 7 a fantozzi raitano discussion_gv
Session 7 a fantozzi raitano discussion_gv
 
Session 7 b bobbio et al service lives paper 7 b iariw discussion
Session 7 b bobbio et al service lives paper 7 b iariw discussionSession 7 b bobbio et al service lives paper 7 b iariw discussion
Session 7 b bobbio et al service lives paper 7 b iariw discussion
 
Session 7 b 2014 08-29 voskob wu
Session 7 b 2014 08-29 voskob wuSession 7 b 2014 08-29 voskob wu
Session 7 b 2014 08-29 voskob wu
 
Session 7 b 7 b role of capital in india’s economic growth
Session 7 b 7 b   role of capital in india’s economic growthSession 7 b 7 b   role of capital in india’s economic growth
Session 7 b 7 b role of capital in india’s economic growth
 
Session 7 b iariw oulton 290814
Session 7 b iariw oulton 290814Session 7 b iariw oulton 290814
Session 7 b iariw oulton 290814
 
Session 7 c de haan measuring global production in na_bp
Session 7 c de haan measuring global production in na_bpSession 7 c de haan measuring global production in na_bp
Session 7 c de haan measuring global production in na_bp
 
Session 7 c iariw august14 erumban
Session 7 c iariw august14 erumbanSession 7 c iariw august14 erumban
Session 7 c iariw august14 erumban
 
Session 8 a iariw discussion clark paper -ruggles
Session 8 a iariw discussion clark paper -rugglesSession 8 a iariw discussion clark paper -ruggles
Session 8 a iariw discussion clark paper -ruggles
 
Session 8 a iariw discussion wolfson paper -ruggles
Session 8 a iariw discussion wolfson paper -rugglesSession 8 a iariw discussion wolfson paper -ruggles
Session 8 a iariw discussion wolfson paper -ruggles
 
Session 8 a presentation decancq-zoli
Session 8 a presentation decancq-zoliSession 8 a presentation decancq-zoli
Session 8 a presentation decancq-zoli
 
Session 8 a presentation soli
Session 8 a presentation soliSession 8 a presentation soli
Session 8 a presentation soli
 

Recently uploaded

Indistinguishable from Magic: How the Cybersecurity Market Reached a Trillion...
Indistinguishable from Magic: How the Cybersecurity Market Reached a Trillion...Indistinguishable from Magic: How the Cybersecurity Market Reached a Trillion...
Indistinguishable from Magic: How the Cybersecurity Market Reached a Trillion...Adrian Sanabria
 
Stock Market Brief Deck for 2/21/24 .pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 2/21/24 .pdfStock Market Brief Deck for 2/21/24 .pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 2/21/24 .pdfMichael Silva
 
TIM GROUP FY '23 Preliminary Results.pdf
TIM GROUP FY '23 Preliminary Results.pdfTIM GROUP FY '23 Preliminary Results.pdf
TIM GROUP FY '23 Preliminary Results.pdfGruppo TIM
 
Stock Market Brief Deck from youtube 2/16
Stock Market Brief Deck from youtube 2/16Stock Market Brief Deck from youtube 2/16
Stock Market Brief Deck from youtube 2/16Michael Silva
 
2023_-_Master_Trust___GPP_Defaults_Report (2).pdf
2023_-_Master_Trust___GPP_Defaults_Report (2).pdf2023_-_Master_Trust___GPP_Defaults_Report (2).pdf
2023_-_Master_Trust___GPP_Defaults_Report (2).pdfHenry Tapper
 
E-learning Personal Finance Management - with design v2 .pptx
E-learning Personal Finance Management - with design v2 .pptxE-learning Personal Finance Management - with design v2 .pptx
E-learning Personal Finance Management - with design v2 .pptxakinsumboayomide
 
Stock Market Brief Deck for 2:22 youtube vid.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 2:22 youtube vid.pdfStock Market Brief Deck for 2:22 youtube vid.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 2:22 youtube vid.pdfMichael Silva
 
India Equity Strategy Presentation (2016) - HSBC
India Equity Strategy Presentation (2016) - HSBCIndia Equity Strategy Presentation (2016) - HSBC
India Equity Strategy Presentation (2016) - HSBCDimitarStoyanov46
 
Elo’s result 2023: Return on investment increased to 6 per cent and cost effi...
Elo’s result 2023: Return on investment increased to 6 per cent and cost effi...Elo’s result 2023: Return on investment increased to 6 per cent and cost effi...
Elo’s result 2023: Return on investment increased to 6 per cent and cost effi...Työeläkeyhtiö Elo
 
AGRICULTURAL PRICE POLICY -AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS.pptx
AGRICULTURAL PRICE POLICY -AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS.pptxAGRICULTURAL PRICE POLICY -AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS.pptx
AGRICULTURAL PRICE POLICY -AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS.pptxVISHALI SELVAM
 
99MW Nearshore Wind Farm in Colombia.pdf
99MW Nearshore Wind Farm in Colombia.pdf99MW Nearshore Wind Farm in Colombia.pdf
99MW Nearshore Wind Farm in Colombia.pdfVictoriaGaleano
 
Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 19 February 2024.pptx
Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 19 February 2024.pptxSlideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 19 February 2024.pptx
Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 19 February 2024.pptxOffice for National Statistics
 
National Income National Income National Income
National Income National Income National IncomeNational Income National Income National Income
National Income National Income National Income19920606201903202019
 
Tone at the top: the effects of gender board diversity on gender wage inequal...
Tone at the top: the effects of gender board diversity on gender wage inequal...Tone at the top: the effects of gender board diversity on gender wage inequal...
Tone at the top: the effects of gender board diversity on gender wage inequal...GRAPE
 
letter to the EF and Premiership about pension liabilities
letter to the EF and Premiership about pension liabilitiesletter to the EF and Premiership about pension liabilities
letter to the EF and Premiership about pension liabilitiesHenry Tapper
 
The Case for Commodities as an Asset Class.ppt
The Case for Commodities as an Asset Class.pptThe Case for Commodities as an Asset Class.ppt
The Case for Commodities as an Asset Class.pptJinzhiFeng1
 
Shrambal_Distributors_February_Newsletter_2024.pdf
Shrambal_Distributors_February_Newsletter_2024.pdfShrambal_Distributors_February_Newsletter_2024.pdf
Shrambal_Distributors_February_Newsletter_2024.pdfvikashdidwania1
 
20240220 Calibre Q4 and FY 2023 Conference Call Present.pdf
20240220 Calibre Q4 and FY 2023 Conference Call Present.pdf20240220 Calibre Q4 and FY 2023 Conference Call Present.pdf
20240220 Calibre Q4 and FY 2023 Conference Call Present.pdfAdnet Communications
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Indistinguishable from Magic: How the Cybersecurity Market Reached a Trillion...
Indistinguishable from Magic: How the Cybersecurity Market Reached a Trillion...Indistinguishable from Magic: How the Cybersecurity Market Reached a Trillion...
Indistinguishable from Magic: How the Cybersecurity Market Reached a Trillion...
 
Stock Market Brief Deck for 2/21/24 .pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 2/21/24 .pdfStock Market Brief Deck for 2/21/24 .pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 2/21/24 .pdf
 
TIM GROUP FY '23 Preliminary Results.pdf
TIM GROUP FY '23 Preliminary Results.pdfTIM GROUP FY '23 Preliminary Results.pdf
TIM GROUP FY '23 Preliminary Results.pdf
 
Stock Market Brief Deck from youtube 2/16
Stock Market Brief Deck from youtube 2/16Stock Market Brief Deck from youtube 2/16
Stock Market Brief Deck from youtube 2/16
 
2023_-_Master_Trust___GPP_Defaults_Report (2).pdf
2023_-_Master_Trust___GPP_Defaults_Report (2).pdf2023_-_Master_Trust___GPP_Defaults_Report (2).pdf
2023_-_Master_Trust___GPP_Defaults_Report (2).pdf
 
E-learning Personal Finance Management - with design v2 .pptx
E-learning Personal Finance Management - with design v2 .pptxE-learning Personal Finance Management - with design v2 .pptx
E-learning Personal Finance Management - with design v2 .pptx
 
Stock Market Brief Deck for 2:22 youtube vid.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 2:22 youtube vid.pdfStock Market Brief Deck for 2:22 youtube vid.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 2:22 youtube vid.pdf
 
India Equity Strategy Presentation (2016) - HSBC
India Equity Strategy Presentation (2016) - HSBCIndia Equity Strategy Presentation (2016) - HSBC
India Equity Strategy Presentation (2016) - HSBC
 
Elo’s result 2023: Return on investment increased to 6 per cent and cost effi...
Elo’s result 2023: Return on investment increased to 6 per cent and cost effi...Elo’s result 2023: Return on investment increased to 6 per cent and cost effi...
Elo’s result 2023: Return on investment increased to 6 per cent and cost effi...
 
AGRICULTURAL PRICE POLICY -AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS.pptx
AGRICULTURAL PRICE POLICY -AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS.pptxAGRICULTURAL PRICE POLICY -AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS.pptx
AGRICULTURAL PRICE POLICY -AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS.pptx
 
99MW Nearshore Wind Farm in Colombia.pdf
99MW Nearshore Wind Farm in Colombia.pdf99MW Nearshore Wind Farm in Colombia.pdf
99MW Nearshore Wind Farm in Colombia.pdf
 
Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 19 February 2024.pptx
Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 19 February 2024.pptxSlideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 19 February 2024.pptx
Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 19 February 2024.pptx
 
National Income National Income National Income
National Income National Income National IncomeNational Income National Income National Income
National Income National Income National Income
 
Tone at the top: the effects of gender board diversity on gender wage inequal...
Tone at the top: the effects of gender board diversity on gender wage inequal...Tone at the top: the effects of gender board diversity on gender wage inequal...
Tone at the top: the effects of gender board diversity on gender wage inequal...
 
letter to the EF and Premiership about pension liabilities
letter to the EF and Premiership about pension liabilitiesletter to the EF and Premiership about pension liabilities
letter to the EF and Premiership about pension liabilities
 
The Case for Commodities as an Asset Class.ppt
The Case for Commodities as an Asset Class.pptThe Case for Commodities as an Asset Class.ppt
The Case for Commodities as an Asset Class.ppt
 
Veritas Financial statement presentation 2023
Veritas Financial statement presentation 2023Veritas Financial statement presentation 2023
Veritas Financial statement presentation 2023
 
Shrambal_Distributors_February_Newsletter_2024.pdf
Shrambal_Distributors_February_Newsletter_2024.pdfShrambal_Distributors_February_Newsletter_2024.pdf
Shrambal_Distributors_February_Newsletter_2024.pdf
 
20240220 Calibre Q4 and FY 2023 Conference Call Present.pdf
20240220 Calibre Q4 and FY 2023 Conference Call Present.pdf20240220 Calibre Q4 and FY 2023 Conference Call Present.pdf
20240220 Calibre Q4 and FY 2023 Conference Call Present.pdf
 
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No.229, February 2024
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No.229, February 2024Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No.229, February 2024
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No.229, February 2024
 

Session 7 a pabilonia paper presented by gao

  • 1. Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Pabilonia.Sabrina@bls.gov Presented by: Qin Gao Fordham University aqigao@fordham.edu
  • 2. Measuring work hours (and nonfarm business sector labor productivity) in the US  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)  Hours worked by wage and salary employees – Current Employment Statistics (CES) program  Includes the incorporated self-employed  Hours worked by non-employees – Current Population Survey (CPS)  Unincorporated self-employed workers (the majority and focus of this paper)  Unpaid family workers  Workers at government enterprises (?)
  • 3. Research Questions  Hours worked by the unincorporated self-employed have varied considerably each quarter, and this volatility is a source of much of the quarterly movement in overall labor productivity.  This paper: 1) examines how closely the volatility in the unincorporated self-employment hours series correlates with the changes in macroeconomic conditions during 1979–2013. 2) Compares weekly hours worked by the unincorporated self-employed from CPS with time diaries from 2003–2013 American Time Use Survey (ATUS).
  • 4. Findings 1) Work hours of the unincorporated self-employed are procyclical  Associated with increases in GDP and decreases in unemployment rate  GDP or unemployment rate, along with a time trend can explain a great deal of the variation in work hours  Growth rate in work hours is also procyclical 2) ATUS more accurate than CPS in capturing work hours of the unincorporated self-employed  Over report in CPS prior to Great Recession, and under report since (though statistically non-significant)  Less accurate reports than wage and salary workers
  • 5. Business Cycles and Self-Employment: 2 Competing Theories The “push” theory and countercyclical hypothesis:  Self-employment is chosen when it is difficult to find a job as an employee (i.e. unemployment high and GDP not growing). The “pull” theory and procyclical hypothesis:  Entrepreneurs have certain abilities that make them particularly suited for self-employment, but there is less incentive for them to start up a business when there is higher risk of failure.  Outcome depends on whether the “push” or “pull” is stronger.
  • 6. Current Population Survey (CPS) Data  Monthly household survey 1979-2013  Respondents aged 15+ report hours worked on main job and secondary jobs.  “Last week, were you employed by government, by a private company, a nonprofit organization, or were you self-employed?”  If self-employed, “Is this business incorporated?”  Secondary job not asked about prior to 1994 redesign, but asked about in 1994-2003  BLS applied adjustment to pre-1994 hours to account for the lack of information from multiple jobholders.  OLS regressions  DV=log quarterly unincorporated self-employed hours (N=140)  IVs=macroeconomic condition (GDP or unemployment rate); time trend
  • 13. American Time Use Survey (ATUS)  Sample drawn from households who have completed their final month-in- sample in CPS; representative of the U.S. civilian population.  Respondents interviewed 2-5 months following their final CPS interview  Interviews conducted every day throughout the year except for major holidays (12/23-1/2, day after Thanksgiving).  Survey weights adjusted for these missing days.  Respondents asked to report activities between 4am on diary day and 4am on interview day.  Also asked whether any non-wage/salary work activities were done as part of job or business  unincorporated self-employed  Comparison between ATUS and CPS: 2003-2013  Average weekly hours worked on the main job for nonfarm self-employed  Workers aged 15+ who likely had the same job and hours at the times of their ATUS and final CPS interviews, holidays excluded  N=1,442 unincorporated self-employed workers
  • 15. Comments  Important topic addressing a knowledge gap  Little prior research: Only one study on question #1, using CPS and PSID data among male workers; supports the procyclical hypothesis  Any evidence from other countries?  Pre- vs. post-recessions analysis, DD?  Trends and effects among female workers, considering work-life balance debates
  • 16. Other macroeconomic/policy factors?  State labor market indicators  Industry sector trends  Female labor force participation rate  Minimum wage  Welfare policy variations, esp. for low-income groups  State, industry, household fixed effects
  • 17. Fuller use of data  CPS: possible to do individual level analysis?  ATUS: more nuanced analysis pre- vs. post-recession  Subgroup analysis could be revealing and policy-relevant  By gender, considering parenting roles  By marital/cohabiting status  By education/skill level  By age groups/cohorts  By industrial sector  A more detailed, dynamic picture and a more rigorous test of the hypotheses

Editor's Notes

  1. Figure 1 shows the log level of hours of the nonfarm unincorporated self-employed from 1979 through the end of 2013, along with recessions. From 1979 to the early 1990s, hours trended upward, then remained relatively stable in the 1990’s and early 2000’s before falling sharply beginning in 2007 with the recession but continuing to trend downward in the subsequent weak recovery period.
  2. The stability in hours during the 1990’s and early 2000’s occurred simultaneously with a rapid increase in real GDP (Figure 2).
  3. Figure 3 shows the unincorporated self-employment rate for all jobs in the nonfarm business sector over the same period. Since the early 1990s, the self-employment rate has declined from a high of 11.7 percent in the third quarter of 1991 to about 8.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013. In the last two recessions, the self-employment rate declined sharply, whereas in previous recessions the self-employment rate rose.