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Client Think Piece July 07


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Asked to provide some provocative thoughts on the UK learning industry in 2012.

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Client Think Piece July 07

  1. 1. Learning in 2012 A partial and prejudiced view of the future of the learning and development industry
  2. 2. The world in 2012? <ul><li>Thank you for the invitation to crystal ball gaze </li></ul><ul><li>First, some disclaimers: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Past events are in no way a predictor of future accuracy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>I was asked to provoke you </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>By the time I am proved wrong, none of this will matter… </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. The world in 2012 <ul><li>HP predicts that everyone will carry around, “a personal wireless hub… which is part Bluetooth headset part personal router” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Some will have been surgically implanted </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Steve Jobs says it will be more like an earring </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The Olympic Games will be held in London </li></ul><ul><li>The Daily Express will still be complaining about the London Olympic logo looking like Lisa Simpson </li></ul><ul><li>It will rain torrentially in Wimbledon fortnight </li></ul><ul><li>Oh and the world will end on December 21 st (according to the Mayan religion - </li></ul>
  4. 4. The Learning World in 2007 <ul><li>The working population is aging </li></ul><ul><li>Average length of job tenure is down to 28 months 1 </li></ul><ul><li>The UK is a secondary and increasingly a tertiary economy and thus rate of change is increased </li></ul><ul><li>Frequency of work based training has increased significantly in last 10 years 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Average UK spend per capita on work based learning is £1,789 3 </li></ul><ul><li>There are over 8,500 VAT registered entities that describe themselves as training suppliers 4 </li></ul>1. Independent research by Reed Consulting 2006 2. National Employers’ Skills Survey 2006 – LSC-P_NAT-060309 3. Ibid 4. Keynote Industry Report: Training 2006
  5. 5. The working world in 2012 <ul><li>The working population will be even older (none of us will have retired as we will have to pay our parents’ nursing home fees and our children’s education bills) </li></ul><ul><li>Average job tenure will be still less at c. 24 months </li></ul><ul><li>There will be: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>622k more corporate managers & 212k fewer secretaries 1 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>200k more builders & 220k fewer skilled electricians 2 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>220k more salesmen & 150k fewer skilled farmers 3 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Can I get a hallelujah! </li></ul>1. National Employers’ Skills Survey 2006 – LSC-P_NAT-060309 2. Ibid 3. Ibid
  6. 6. The learning world in 2012 <ul><li>The largest proportion of work based training will be delivered to people aged between 49 and 64 1 </li></ul><ul><li>So, can I ask the Second-Lifers and denizens of web 2.0 to reign in their avatars a little </li></ul><ul><li>The mean age of these people will be 59 (born in 1953) 2 </li></ul><ul><li>These people read books and listen to the wireless! </li></ul>1. 2.
  7. 7. Teaching old dogs new tricks <ul><li>Make it clear what type of behaviour you will reward </li></ul><ul><li>Look at the motivating factors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Integrative </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Instrumental </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Offer change in multiple formats </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nothing annoys middle-aged middle Britain more than being told what to do </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Anchor it: If you want to development opportunities next year, show me how you have benefited from training this year </li></ul>
  8. 8. The learning world in 2012 <ul><li>The average spend per capita on work based learning will not have changed (once adjusted for inflation) 1 </li></ul><ul><li>But more people will require training more often 2 </li></ul><ul><li>So where is the efficiency going to come from? </li></ul><ul><li>It could go two ways… </li></ul>1. Merlin Scott Industry Report: Training 2006 2. National Employers’ Skills Survey 2006 – LSC-P_NAT-060309
  9. 9. Total Cost of Learning C Change Requirement M Change Mechanism D Delivery Management Why What How Who When What skills or behaviours are lacking in an individual or group? Why is the acquisition of these skills important to the individual, group and organisation as a whole? 5-10% of TCOL How will the individual achieve the required change in behaviour? Through what instrument(s) will they change? Instructor based classroom learning, distance learning, coaching, mentoring, P2P, IBT/CBT or simply reading a book. 20-25% of TCOL Who needs to be where, when to achieve the required change? This includes vendor selection (client’s cost of purchase and suppliers cost of sale), scheduling, cancellations and transfer, travel, accommodation and expenses. 65-75% of TCOL Where
  10. 10. The purpose of L&D <ul><li>What is the purpose of L&D in your organisation? </li></ul><ul><li>Really?? </li></ul><ul><li>Can you get it on one piece of A4? </li></ul><ul><li>“If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will take you there” </li></ul>
  11. 11. The purpose of learning <ul><li>Substantive </li></ul><ul><li>Relevant </li></ul><ul><li>Change </li></ul>
  12. 12. Business Strategy Lite ™ <ul><li>Define your organisation in a context </li></ul><ul><li>Define your strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Allocate the right resources in the right places </li></ul><ul><li>JFDI </li></ul><ul><li>Tweak </li></ul><ul><li>Rinse, repeat </li></ul>
  13. 13. Make it count <ul><li>Spend your money and your time where it will make the most difference </li></ul><ul><li>Apply the same logic to training and development </li></ul>
  14. 14. Concluding thoughts <ul><li>Training is not a “fire and forget” missile </li></ul><ul><li>Spend twice the time and half the money four times more effectively </li></ul><ul><li>Don’t complicate, simplify </li></ul><ul><li>Define the positions that you manage on one page </li></ul><ul><li>Create opportunities for development outside formal training </li></ul><ul><li>Grow auto-didacts (hire curious people) </li></ul>
  15. 15. Learn something every day! <ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>Scrunch up your toes </li></ul><ul><li>Alt + e + a + a (in MS excel) </li></ul><ul><li>Biotherm hydra detox yeux (after red eye flights) </li></ul><ul><li>If it’s divisible by 9 it’s a transposition error </li></ul>