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LEVERAGING LARGE-SCALE HUMAN HISTORY TO PREDICT THE ECONOMIC FUTURE AND HEALTH OF THE HUMAN RACE [INBOUND 2014]

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“The past does not repeat itself, but it rhymes."- Mark Twain Although future events have unique circumstances, they typically follow familiar past patterns. Over the past few years, I devoted my life to the development of prediction techniques based on mining such patterns—inferring the first Cholera outbreak in Cuba in 130 years, genocide events and riots in Sudan. The algorithms I developed deal with the complexity of discovering such patterns by harvesting large-scale digital histories, social and real-time media and human web behavior, and augmenting them with human knowledge mined from the web, to deliver real-time estimations of the likelihood of future events. My recent efforts included applying such methods in order to predict events in the economy, which will be described in this talk.

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LEVERAGING LARGE-SCALE HUMAN HISTORY TO PREDICT THE ECONOMIC FUTURE AND HEALTH OF THE HUMAN RACE [INBOUND 2014]

  1. 1. Dr. Kira Radinsky, Co-founder, CTO
  2. 2. Arkansas Austin Bird Deaths
  3. 3. Fish deaths Bird deaths Animal Deaths
  4. 4. Fish deaths Bird deaths Animal Death Oil Spill
  5. 5. 150 years of news articles Billions of tweets Millions of web searches
  6. 6. Event1 Merchant ship Collide Tanker 05/25/2010 11:00 Singapore Location Action Time- frame Event2 spill 05/25/2010 15:00 Action Time- frame Time “Tanker and merchant ship collide” “Oil spill off Singapore” Oil Location Singapore
  7. 7. Causality Graph
  8. 8. 1960 2006 Area total Ethnic groups Population density GDP Government Type Percent Water
  9. 9. Cuba faces its worst droughtfor 50 years. BBC, April 2011
  10. 10. Tropical stormIsaac drenches Haiti, swipes CubaReuters, August 2012
  11. 11. After a century without the disease, Cuba fights to contain CholeraNBC, January 2013
  12. 12. Cholera mortality rate World Health Organization (WHO) Deaths/Year 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 Prompt rehydration therapy can save lives
  13. 13. Combine with Internal Sales Data
  14. 14. Simulating the Market Connecting Macro &Micro Economics
  15. 15. Humans and machines market
  16. 16. Decision making mechanisms
  17. 17. Dr. Kira Radinsky, Co-founder, CTO

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