Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Introduction to Horizon Scanning 2016

2,516 views

Published on

A wide ranging description of horizon scanning, also surveying UK expertise, tools and approaches.

Published in: Business

Introduction to Horizon Scanning 2016

  1. 1. Proprietary and Confidential Introduction to Horizon Scanning May 2016 H Smith
  2. 2. 2September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Purpose of this presentation • Stimulate discussion of horizon scanning needs – Technology, trends • In support of “innovation” … IT Services, Applied Research, challenges – Definition of horizon scanning – Cited examples – UK expertise – Tools and methods – Next steps / options “Foresight is not prediction! It is about developing ideas about what plausible futures might look like.” – Futures Analyst “We are good at learning from the past; we need to learn from the future as well – we need to develop a ‘history of the future’ as we do a ‘history of the past’” – Scenario Planning Consultant
  3. 3. 3September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Why think about the future? What we don’t know we don’t know What we know we don’t know What we know Most of what we need to know to make good decisions today is outside our comprehension: we don’t even know it’s there. All our knowledge is about the past, but all our decisions are about the future. Source: Thinking Futures
  4. 4. 4September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential • Possible - “might” happen (future knowledge) • Plausible – “could” happen (current knowledge) • Probable - “likely to” happen (current trends) • Preferable - “want to” happen (value judgements) Types of Futures
  5. 5. 5September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential What is an horizon scan? • An horizon is a view of the probable and possible futures of something • Horizons are developed based on expertise and ongoing research – Horizons (research) later informs development (actions) • Horizons are typically developed by experts in their method, in conjunction with stakeholders and multi-disciplinary collaboration teams, with a high emphasis on ongoing knowledge management • Knowing the possible futures of something is a powerful indicator of expertise or group knowledge • Horizons should be developed with a clear purpose, in the context of a plan to act on the information – The act of participating in the building of horizons helps foster an understanding of the implications for stakeholders • The output from horizon scanning can take many forms, – A one page infographic summary (e.g. a Gartner hype cycle) – A report 100s of pages of detailed analysis (e.g. future of UK Obesity) – In both cases the work to produce a meaningful and useful horizon is considerable (weeks, months, multi year studies) • Do not confuse horizon scanning with ‘futurology’
  6. 6. 6September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Definitions of horizon scanning vary • Horizon scanning is generally understood to refer to the active, ongoing and systematic monitoring and assessment of a technological, commercial or other type of environment with a view to anticipating the changes that are likely to occur in it. Being focused and continuous (as opposed to passive and episodic), horizon scanning fits with an organization's longer-term objectives regarding strategic directions and risk management. It is thus of use in detecting and assessing emerging threats and opportunities and in guiding decision- and policy-making ahead of actual events. • Horizon scanning involves the systematic examination of information from many sources and experts in order to identify potential opportunities - short, medium and long term - certainties, probabilities and possibilities - including but not limited to risks and threats, such as important new industry developments and likely competitor moves, allowing for a better preparedness and the incorporation of new ideas and insights into the strategy making process, allowing for the development of a roadmap and action plan that pinpoints high, medium and low priority initiatives - musts, coulds & shoulds
  7. 7. 7September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Related terms • Visioning • Forward planning • Strategic foresight • Futures studies • Scenario planning • Delphi planning • Trend analysis • Forecasting • Back casting • Technology roadmapping • STEEP • Wind tunnelling
  8. 8. 8September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Inputs Strategy Outputs Foresight Expanded Strategic Options (Short, medium, longer term) Strategy Development Strategic Planning Foresight * Intelligence / scanning The process * ‘Foresight’ is the name adopted by UK Government for a range of horizon scanning practices
  9. 9. 9September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Horizons hedge / inform against questions like this: • Will our products & services remain relevant in our markets? • How will our markets change in the future? How will demand change? • What will our customers need, want or expect next? • What is the next important development in the technical fields in which we operate? • Who should we partner with or acquire next? • What is the next disruption in our business model and where will it come from? • No one spotted that! Why didn’t we know about that in advance? • We always seem to be side stepped in terms of new industry developments. Why? • We had that idea in the past, why didn’t we act on it? • What should our new strategic plan focus on? • Where do we need to focus our research and development investment in order to support our strategy? • Do we have a vision of our future? How do we get to the future we want for our organization?
  10. 10. 10September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential We cannot know all futures, nor do we need to • Key question: What futures do we really care about? • Examples: – I am a product manager. I know all about my product today, but do I have a roadmap of its future? What if my client asks what’s coming next? What ideas do I need to create to keep the product current? Can I get ahead of the competition? What needs to be developed? Who do I need to partner with? What will the product look like in the future? How will the product need to change over time? – I am an industry expert. I understand what my clients are looking for today, but do I understand what they will need next year or in three years? How can I remain relevant and prevent my competitors from steeling a march on my thinking? What ideas do I need to develop in order to get ready for the projects that will develop the next generation of our products? Will I see the next disruption before it hits me? The future of <X>? Technology innovations, new products, services innovations ... The future of <Y>?
  11. 11. 11September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Inputs Strategy Outputs Analysis Interpretation “what might we need to do?” Options, plans, actions “what will we do?” “how will we do it?” Informed strategy “what’s really happening?” Causes, effects, dynamics “what seems to be happening?” Trends, issues, themes Things happening News, events … Foresight “what might happen?” Scenarios Prospection Horizons specialists try to link events and news to actions
  12. 12. 12September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Levels of structure in horizons work Events Patterns, Trends System Structure News Items Recurring Themes Underlying “Drivers” “Core” Human Intelligence Models Thinking Systems Mindsets, Worldviews, Metaphors, Myths Copyright © 2001 Joseph Voros
  13. 13. 13September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential EXAMPLE: Horizons and scenarios were made famous by Shell • Our scenarios team has been developing possible visions of the future since the 1970s, helping generations of leaders plan and make better decisions. By identifying and interpreting emerging patterns in the present, they deepen our understanding of how the world might appear decades ahead. • Our scenarios ask “what if?” questions, helping us explore alternative views of the future. They consider long-term trends in economics, energy supply and demand, geopolitical shifts and social change. They also help governments, academia and other businesses understand the possibilities and uncertainties ahead. • Over time, Shell Scenarios have gained a global following among governments, academia and business. http://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/shell-scenarios.html Take a look at examples
  14. 14. 14September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential EXAMPLE: UK Government “Foresight” • Foresight uses the latest scientific evidence and futures analysis to address complex issues and provide strategic options for policy • Foresight projects examine either an important public policy issue where science might be part of the solution, or a scientific topic where potential applications and technologies are yet to be realised • Horizon scanning projects are studies looking at discrete issues 10 to 15 years in the future • Foresight projects are in-depth 2-year studies which build a comprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20 to 80 years into the future. • Example ‘futures’: – The Aging Population, Future of Identity, Disaster and Risk, Future of Cities, Manufacturing, Finance Markets, Climate Change, Food and Farming, The Built Environment, Obesity Futures, Energy Futures, Land Use Scenarios, Mental Well Being, Cyber Trust, UK Innovation • History of developing Horizon/Scenario best practices, tools, and fostering the internal and external network of Future Analysts (FAN Club) https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/foresight-projects
  15. 15. 15September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential EXAMPLE: UK Government Foresight Report: Reducing the Risk of Future Disasters: priorities for decision makers • 139 pages, 20 page executive summary • Supporting evidence in 14 commissioned expert groups https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/reducing-risk-of-future-disasters-priorities-for-decision-makers
  16. 16. 16September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Horizon Scanning 2014 – Cabinet Office and GO-Science Response to critique Source Ian Miles “Foresight in the UK 1994 to 2014” http://www.slideshare.net/IanMiles/what-has-happoened-to-foresight-in-the-uk
  17. 17. 17September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Government has attempted to weave horizon scanning work into policy development at many levels, organizations attempt the same
  18. 18. 18September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Tools in the Horizon Process Source: Ian Miles 8 July 2014
  19. 19. 19September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Independent horizon scanning consultants have many tools
  20. 20. 20September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential EXAMPLES: Horizon output is often summarised in the form of infographics Important: • Infographics are views of a knowledge base, not the research itself • Infographics themselves take much time and effort to produce • Keeping them up to date is hard, e.g. ShapingTomorrow later
  21. 21. 21September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential EXAMPLE: Convergence diagrams are useful in horizons work • From an early study – Pinpointing the future of digital convergence • What lies at the centre? AppleCalculator PC PDA Internet Radio Internet TV Peer to Peer IP Telephony Net Meeting CD Player Car Radio TV DVD (offline) VHS Radio Future Present Past PlayStation , XBOX HFC VideoText Home Entertainment Platform High-end Multi-media PC Multi media Smart phone Wireless phone Cell phone Satellite phone GPRS Mobile Mobile Gaming Mobile phone + MP3 MHP Convergent platforms Partially convergent Divergent platforms ?
  22. 22. 22September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Future Present Past Commonality Economies of Scale Additive manufacturing On demand D-Clouds Defence App stores Unlimited computing Cyber Defence ‘FutureEdge’ Procurement NetMarkets 3Dprinted weapons EA, IA Shared Services Sustainability End to end processes Interoperability “Factory to Foxhole CM, PLM, PDM UADs Collaboration / Open innovation 5-Eyes G- Clouds Integrat ed Print IASS Embedded Systems Advanced materials Geospatial Avionics IdAM Future of D-ICT Future of Sys Integration Future of Manufacturing Augmented Reality Internet of Things, M2M Multi-agent Simulation Industrial Robotics Extranets Open innovation Open A&D R&D Quantum Computing Brainware Smart materials Nano-tech Lasers “Makers” Bio hacking DARPA Plan X Synthetic biology Defence WS Articulated Naturality Drone hacking GPS spoofing AR Glasses Engineering Services Global Supply Chain M&A Integration Mission Software Program Profitability Manu- Services R&D Co- creation Internet WWW aaS/ clouds Internet of Things MEMS Ubiquitous computing Smart objects AR glasses Bodyware Sensors/ grids Context aware computing Open Source R&D D-’Siri’ Agents, eg Siri Google Maps 3D printed bio intranets Web sites File sharing, FTP Virtual Reality Prevent Strategic Surprises Prevent Operational Surprises Prevent Tactical Surprises 3D printed UAVs Air walls D-big data Autonomous Systems Service robots CoBots, eg BAXTER RoboCops, Warriors NanoBots Swarm robotics Quantum cryptography “Hackers” “Terrorists” Cyborgs Quantum Networks DNA / molecular computing Chemical computing D- Services “Nations” Bio terrorism Cyber terrorism Risk Extract from a CSC consulting study, 2012 Agent-Based Systems Synthetic environments Data fusion Display tech Robotic exploration Earth Obs National Security Regulatory/ Compliance Future of Energy Smart Grids Services Innovation EXAMPLE: Wither Aerospace & Defence?
  23. 23. 23September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Horizons work: Easy to say, harder to do Source: ShapingTomorrow (*) – “Introduction to horizon scanning best practices” * ShapingTomorrow, a UK SME, provide portal, tools, community and knowledge base in support of horizon scanning
  24. 24. 24September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Horizons start with and try to answer questions • What is the future of <x>? • How will <x> change over time? • What will be new around <x>? • Etc. – What is the future of this technology? – What is the future of this product? – What is the future of this service? – What is the future of this market? – What is the future of this idea? • Developing a compelling view of the future of something depends on – Integration of available knowledge – The search for new knowledge – Integration of the evolving knowledge of experts – Applying the methods so as to provide assets of use to stakeholders • Developing effective horizons is a research & knowledge management discipline + Scenarios Futures
  25. 25. 25September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Hype curves are helpful, but incomplete • A hype curve is only one view of a ‘future horizon’ • A hype curve alone lacks client context
  26. 26. 26September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Analyst firms provide a range of tools to their clients • Search over knowledge bases • Access to curated reports • Infographic summarisation • Specialist tools – See later – All tools are ‘grist to the horizons mill’
  27. 27. 27September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Research can be horizontal, vertical, broad or targeted • Healthcare industry example • The ongoing research behind this is considerable
  28. 28. 28September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Present Near Future Future Far Future Certain Probable Possible Unlikely Horizons map out scenarios in the context of client needs What is the future of <X>? ? ? ? ? What do we need to know about?
  29. 29. 29September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Questions drive the horizon scanning process • Questions about <x> – What does the future of <x> look like? – Will <x> become important? – When will <x> become important? – How will <x> become important? – What else is related to <x>? – Who will dominate in <x>? – What will <x> disrupt? – What will disrupt <x>? • <x> could be a new (or existing) – Technology – Capability – Process – Product – Service – Company – Market Watch for signals Understand trends Build scenarios
  30. 30. 30September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Present Near Future Future Far Future Certain Probable Possible Unlikely Again Will <x> become important? How will <x> be important? Etc. ? ? ? ? Choose your planning horizons Define your needs Define the questions What do we need to know about?
  31. 31. 31September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Horizons project are complex by their nature • Decide on the key question to be answered by the analysis. By doing this, it is possible to assess whether scenario planning is preferred over the other methods. If the question is based on small changes or a very small number of elements, other more formalized methods may be more useful. • Set the time and scope of the analysis. Take into consideration how quickly changes have happened in the past, and try to assess to what degree it is possible to predict common trends in demographics, product life cycles. A usual timeframe can be five to 10 years. • Identify major stakeholders. Decide who will be affected and have an interest in the possible outcomes. Identify their current interests, whether and why these interests have changed over time in the past. • Map basic trends and driving forces. This includes industry, economic, political, technological, legal, and societal trends. Assess to what degree these trends will affect your research question. Describe each trend, how and why it will affect the organisation. In this step of the process, brainstorming is commonly used, where all trends that can be thought of are presented before they are assessed, to capture possible group thinking and tunnel vision. • Find key uncertainties. Map the driving forces on two axes, assessing each force on an uncertain/(relatively) predictable and important/unimportant scale. All driving forces that are considered unimportant are discarded. Important driving forces that are relatively predictable (ex. demographics) can be included in any scenario, so the scenarios should not be based on these. This leaves you with a number of important and unpredictable driving forces. At this point, it is also useful to assess whether any linkages between driving forces exist, and rule out any "impossible" scenarios (ex. full employment and zero inflation). Source: Wikipedia
  32. 32. 32September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Cont. • Check for the possibility to group the linked forces and if possible, reduce the forces to the two most important. (To allow the scenarios to be presented in a neat diagram) • Identify the extremes of the possible outcomes of the two driving forces and check the dimensions for consistency and plausibility. Three key points should be assessed: – Time frame: are the trends compatible within the time frame in question? – Internal consistency: do the forces describe uncertainties that can construct probable scenarios. – Vs the stakeholders: are any stakeholders currently in disequilibrium compared to their preferred situation, and will this evolve the scenario? Is it possible to create probable scenarios when considering the stakeholders? This is most important when creating macro-scenarios where governments, large organisations et al. will try to influence the outcome. • Define the scenarios, plotting them on a grid if possible. Usually, two to four scenarios are constructed. The current situation does not need to be in the middle of the diagram (inflation may already be low), and possible scenarios may keep one (or more) of the forces relatively constant, especially if using three or more driving forces. One approach can be to create all positive elements into one scenario and all negative elements (relative to the current situation) in another scenario, then refining these. In the end, try to avoid pure best-case and worst-case scenarios.
  33. 33. 33September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Cont. • Write out the scenarios. Narrate what has happened and what the reasons can be for the proposed situation. Try to include good reasons why the changes have occurred as this helps the further analysis. Finally, give each scenario a descriptive (and catchy) name to ease later reference. • Assess the scenarios. Are they relevant for the goal? Are they internally consistent? Are they archetypical? Do they represent relatively stable outcome situations? • Identify research needs. Based on the scenarios, assess where more information is needed. Where needed, obtain more information on the motivations of stakeholders, possible innovations that may occur in the industry and so on. • Develop quantitative methods. If possible, develop models to help quantify consequences of the various scenarios, such as growth rate, cash flow etc. This step does of course require a significant amount of work compared to the others, and may be left out in back-of-the-envelope- analyses. • Converge towards decision scenarios. Retrace the steps above in an iterative process until you reach scenarios which address the fundamental issues facing the organization. Try to assess upsides and downsides of the possible scenarios.
  34. 34. 34September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Structuring the output Shaping forces diagrams are useful in horizons work Today Short term Medium term Long term Extrapolation (Offerings, Technologies) Application (Business plan) Search Fields Application Fields Environment Shaping Forces SocietyConsumer At Work People Public space Transportation Manufacture Politics Economy Technology Customer expectation Competition Strategy Current business example: Information and communication Education & Learning Electronic commerce Recreation & entertainment Knowledge based business Processes & products Healthcare services ... ... Access technologies End user devices Bionics Pervasive computing Augmented reality Web services ... ...
  35. 35. 35September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Structuring the output Roadmaps are useful in horizons work Today and near future Medium term (strategic planning) Long term (planning) Market drivers Offering functions Strategic technology areas R&D programs Segment A Segment B Aspect A Aspect B Area A Area B D 1 F1 T 1 RD1 RD1 RD1 RD1 RD1 T 2 T 3 T 5 T 4 RD1 F2 F3 F5 F4 F6 D 2 D 3 D 4 D 5
  36. 36. 36September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential The field of Technological Roadmapping has its tools Product planning Service planning Strategic planning Examples Long term planning Integration planning Dependency planning
  37. 37. 37September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Organizations adopt a Technology Roadmapping process according to their needs Example
  38. 38. 38September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Further reading Books on these methods are necessarily quite theoretical Futures work is challenging (as researchers acknowledge) Experts and few and far between
  39. 39. 39September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential But is this useful? • Systems Dynamics (stocks and flows) cause and effect model of the future influences on UK obesity Obesity Futures, final report Page 89
  40. 40. 40September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Buyer beware, horizons work can go wrong • Modelling for modelling sake – Boiling the ocean, not asking the right questions • Modelling too many factors / influences – confused picture – Not consumable / readable by humans • Proliferation of impenetrable feedback loops – Impossible to test / simulate • Lazy modelling – looks good, but how much insight? –Not getting to root causes of change – No separation of sub-problems, perspectives, aspects • No actionable recommendations – Works or art (cute infographics) delivered, but not in support of ongoing collaboration
  41. 41. 41September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Challenges and some recommendations • Dilemmas – We developed that report, but no one read it – We developed that report, but now it is out of date – That report cost a ton to develop, was it worth it? – That report missed the most important development – Who was it who wrote that report? Were our experts involved? – Priorities have changed, that report is no longer relevant – Those horizons people, they sit in an ivory tower – A year on, have we got to do all that over again? – We felt the traditional horizons process was unsustainable • What’s needed is a collaborative visioning, roadmapping and action planning system, supported by effective tools – Structured enough to support the horizon scanning best practices – Providing practical support that engages experts in the process – Fostering the development of internal futures practices and community • Recommendation for increasing horizon muscles – Focus on empowering your own people with tools, informed by experts – Establish a knowledge base, pool expertise, integrate visualisation – Be wary of throwing futures projects ‘over the wall’ to external experts to produce ‘one off’ horizons – Build networks that integrate futures knowledge from the outside-in
  42. 42. Proprietary and Confidential Part 2 - Specialist expertise in the UK Survey
  43. 43. 43September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential ShapingTomorrow • UK ‘futures’ SME • Best practices • Community – Global reach • Portal – Supports the process • Knowledge base – Specific events – Observed trends • Solutions and services aiming to foster the in house horizon scanning capability https://shapingtomorrow.com/
  44. 44. 44September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential SAMI Consulting • UK ‘futures’ SME – Consulting associate network – Alternative to the ‘big four’ management consultant firms • Network of experts in – Scenario planning – Horizon scanning – Future thinking – Foresight studies • Fellows, principles & associates – Associates also operate as independent contractors http://www.samiconsulting.co.uk/
  45. 45. 45September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Centre for Future Studies • Another UK ‘futures’ SME • Design and facilitation of group future visioning • Describing their services as: – Scenario planning: Scenario thinking processes and programmes to build a plausible future view for each organisation. – Horizon scanning: External scanning resources and expertise. We also work with organisations to assist in building an in-house environmental scanning capability. – Future thinking workshops: designed to build future thinking capabilities and expertise in organisations: – Thought leadership foresight studies: thought leadership is the new paradigm for how businesses market themselves and build brand. http://www.futurestudies.co.uk/
  46. 46. 46September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential NowAndNext • Richard Wilson, futurist author, speaker and scenario planner • Technology, trends, risk reports and futures consulting • Has worked for the Imperial Tech Foresight, see next http://www.nowandnext.com/ http://www.nowandnext.com/?action=misc&subaction=trend_maps
  47. 47. 47September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Imperial Tech Forecast • Imperial College London • Offers futures services, events and workshops and longer term projects from Imperials world-leading talent, including industry collaboration and corporate horizon scanning service • Example horizon projects: – Future electronics – Synthetic biology – Smart plastics – Computer simulation – Future cities – Robotics – Autonomous machines – Smart dust – 2025 Tech Forecast – Block chain futures – Digital Identity http://www.imperialtechforesight.com
  48. 48. 48September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential EXAMPLE: Imperial Foresight projects • The Imperial Foresight activity leverages ‘horizons’ expert and knowledge bases from Now And Next – Among many other sources http://www.imperialtechforesight.com/future-visions/87/vision/timeline-of-emerging-science-and-technology.html NowAndNext content http://www.nowandnext.com/
  49. 49. 49September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential LeadingEdgeOnly (*) • UK SME • Innovation broker “business network” – Product suppliers – Client’s looking for “innovation” – Searchable knowledge base – Trusted brokering process • Claims: – LEO is the world’s leading Innovation Marketplace and provides a platform for corporations, consultancies, governments and other major organisations seeking new innovative solutions to quickly and cost effectively access those providing the latest innovations in technologies, products and other solutions. – Our Corporate Services include accessing over a quarter of a million Innovation Providers globally to find the solutions you need today or may need in the future. • Brokers links between those providing innovation and those seeking innovation – New products – Evolved products – New technologies – Evolved technologies – Solution patterns (*) Not to be confused with the CSC Leading Edge Forum
  50. 50. 50September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential CGI Coachworks: Match matching between client needs and expertise that extends the CGI ecosystem TRANSITION CGI CoachWorks Support to SMEs • Whole Lifecycle • Mutual Growth • Straight Dealing • Technical Support • Commercial Vision Multiple engagements / challenges flow from Clients Use engagement with SME Accelerate members & Feeder Networks to find candidate solutions Client introduces its own preferred SME – CGI engages Provide support to SME in production scenarios Represent SME in CGI Solutioneering - Exploring Usage of SME in wider CGI / other clients. Support SME with Networking, Events, Knowledge Share, CGI Awareness Source: CGI
  51. 51. 51September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential LeadingEdgeForum • Founded by CSC • Research guided by convergent client interests – Informed by background thought leadership, analysis and study tours • Examples: – Consumerization, ‘Digital’ Leadership, BRM • Researchers bring forward useful models and approaches, examples: – Simon Wardley, Wardley Maps – Howard Smith, Southbeach Notation, BPMN Value Mapping (Wardley Maps) Situational Improvement – Southbeach Notation (Smith, Burnett) Executable Process Design (Ghalimi, Smith, BPML, BPMN) https://leadingedgeforum.com/
  52. 52. Proprietary and Confidential Part 3 - Tools Survey
  53. 53. 53September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential The game is changing in horizons consulting • “Tools” to a futures analyst used to be a set of charts and thinking aides – Being replaced by big data, analytics, cognitive – Static tools being replaced by modern analytic tools to a large degree • Placing contracts for offline horizons studies is somewhat outdated – Fire and forget requests to specialists – Meld expertise into embedded in house capabilities, supported by tools – Commissioned comprehensive reports can still be justified for large scale complex, longer term “studies” integrating ‘open research” • Interactive predictive tools are ‘all the rage’ – Operating over big data, OSINT – Integrating public and private data sources • Domain specific – Melded to the needs of DIY analysts and their stakeholders
  54. 54. 54September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential The “tools” discussion • Types 1. Tools to support core research work 2. Tools to support the horizons process / or methods Lots of the former, less of the latter • Tools should ideally – Foster collaboration – Bring experts together to pool knowledge – Converge expert input to create compelling outputs – Sustain the development of new knowledge • Avoiding one off reports that rapidly are outdated – Support the repurposing of knowledge, e.g. visualization, search, extraction • Example tools – Research • Quid • Owlin • RecordedFuture • Brainspace • SaffronTech – Process • ShapingTomorrow • Sopheon Accolade
  55. 55. 55September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Quid • Quid is a platform that searches, analyses and visualizes the world’s collective intelligence to help answer strategic questions. – “The world's leading strategists, researchers, investors and companies rely on Quid to get a bird's-eye view of any topic and easily understand the trends impacting their world.” – “Quid is building tools that supercharge database research.” • Applications include technology market landscapes, emerging trend analysis, competitive intelligence – Amplify human intelligence and drive towards better research questions – Used by research groups, think tanks, foundations, consulting firms, corporate strategy, innovation groups, tech firms, in several sectors • Integrate external knowledge (curated by Quid) with internal enterprise knowledge – Ingest, find patterns, natural language processing over Quid curated and other sources – Sources include full content of 50 patent authorities, 300k news sources (700k articles daily, indexed every second), the blogosphere plus any others you add • Visualization framework can handle 20,000 interactive objects with near zero latency “With Quid I can upload whole new sets of knowledge into my brain.” - Shivon Zilis, Partner, Bloomberg Beta https://quid.com
  56. 56. 56September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Owlin • Owlin scans close to more than two million news sources around the world, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 'turns the news into actionable intelligence'. – Over 2m sources – Interactive and API • Owlin scans a wide variety of news sources: corporate sites, government publications, academia, blogs, specialist sites, forums and news organizations. • Used by, among others, research professionals • e.g. – Live view of technology trends in eight large industry sectors – Real time view of the world of start ups, incubators, VCs and related technology trends https://owlin.com
  57. 57. 57September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential ShapingTomorrow • UK ‘futures’ SME • Best practices body of knowledge • Practitioner community – Global reach – Experts in all kinds of ‘scanning’ domains • Portal – Supports the process end to end – Trends and events knowledge base • Global trends • Domain specific • Solution and services – Foster the in house horizon scanning capability – Create a domain specific deployment https://shapingtomorrow.com/
  58. 58. 58September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential RecordedFuture • Now focusses on the Threat Intelligence market, but the underlying technology has broader application in line with their original go-to-market plans • RecordedFuture structures real time information from the social media and 690,000+ web sources around the world, looking for ‘temporal’ references – Revealing relationships between people, places and organizations and their timeline of activities – Presented in interactive dash boards and visualizations, tuned by researchers/analysts using key words, search terms and other targeting information – Was used by organizations in areas such as corporate security, cyber analysis, and corporate intelligence, including market trends, monitoring of competitors, predictive signals in finance markets, etc. • It is a temporal inference engine for the Web (Google has a stake and the CIA use it I believe) • As a paid up user, you enjoy the benefit of configuring dashboards for delivery back to your team or clients, which are kept current automatically, each with its own URL – Live reporting of the current and future trends, organized by actors and events – Revealing links between otherwise uncorrelated information https://www.recordedfuture.com https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recorded_Future
  59. 59. 59September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential A product to support the roadmapping process • From a ‘once a year effort’ to a continuous process – Structures and automates the market, technology and product planning • Visuals allows everyone to participate, including decision makers – Standardization of roadmapping ensures consistent communication of vision across the enterprise • Feeds into ideation process – Drives wider adoption of roadmapping across the organization • Links horizon scanning to strategy development – Drives development of the R&D portfolio http://www.sopheon.com/SOLUTIONS/AccoladeVisionStrategist.aspx
  60. 60. 60September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Brainspace • e-Discovery tool (began life in legal industry) for deriving meaning and insight from natural language ingest, now being marketed for other verticals – Rapidly ingests millions of pages of unstructured text, dynamically learning without taxonomies or ontologies • Natural Language Processing – Social, Blogs, News, Journals, Enterprise Content, Email, Documents, Sales & Marketing, Reviews, Premium Content Partners, Scientific Journals – Learning is surfaced through interactive visualizations – Phrase detection, multi concept search / connections http://www.brainspace.com/
  61. 61. 61September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential SaffronTech • “Brain like” to find “meaning” (rich associations) in data and anticipate future scenarios • Adapts in real time to continuously changing big data • Examples – All source intelligence and visualization and understanding – Fusion / visualization of the numerous sensed or inferred data feeds – Vertical applications • Analytics in the battlefield, real time decision making • Moving assets, vehicles or personnel • Supply chain, special operations, social media monitoring • Spot and track emergent events, e.g. public health, decease control • Acquired by Intel http://www.saffrontech.com/
  62. 62. Proprietary and Confidential Steps forward
  63. 63. 63September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Next steps for strengthening our horizon scanning muscles? Inputs Strategy Outputs Foresight ExpertiseTools Purpose Results Analytics Roadmaps Methods Knowledge
  64. 64. 64September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Questions in no particular order • Define what we don’t know • What is the internal state of the art? • Who are our experts? • What is the external state of the art? • Where is horizon scanning needed? • What horizons need to be developed? • What forms of horizon are of most value? • Identify gaps in knowledge • What are our most valuable knowledge bases? • Identify gaps in tooling • What tools and methods are already in use? • What new tools and methods hold the most promise? • How to demonstrate actionable value of horizon scanning? • How to increase awareness of the art of the possible? • How to embed horizon scanning in the business? • Identify gaps in methods • Learn by doing, linking tools, methods and process to needs • What are the current priorities? • Where do we start? Bare bones of a method? • How will collaboration work? • Whether and how to engage external expertise? • What type of external input is needed?
  65. 65. 65September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential A Vision • Enterprise horizon portal in place • Core horizon scanning team established • Leveraging external expertise • Supporting horizon ‘consumers’ across the business • Enabling experts outside of the horizon team to contribute • Licenced tools for horizon scanning and analytics in active use by the core team • Training and educating in tooling being rolled out to selected experts • Supplementing and filling gaps in existing activities Inputs Strategy Outputs Foresight Expertise Tools Purpose Results Analytics Roadmaps Methods Knowledge
  66. 66. Proprietary and Confidential Appendix A
  67. 67. 67September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Present Near Future Future Far Future Certain Probable Possible Unlikely Develop rich scenarios What is the future of <X>? ? ? ? ? What do we need to know
  68. 68. 68September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Build integrated roadmaps High priority Low priority Impact Developmentprobability High Med Low High Med Low Medium priority
  69. 69. 69September 21, 2016Proprietary and Confidential Urgency Importance Could Should Must Immediate Med term Long term Tactical Strategic Program B Future Study C Project D Initiative A Project B Action A Study project B Initiative D Project C Action A Plan for proactive actions
  70. 70. Proprietary and Confidential hsmith23@csc.com

×