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The Hive Think Tank: Talk by Mohandas Pai - India at 2030, How Tech Entrepreneurship Will Create A $10 Trillion Economy

Over the next 15 years, India's growth will be fueled by its startups. Today, there are over 20,000 startups in India that have created a value of $80 billion and employ 325,000 people. Over the next ten years, by 2025, there will be 100,000 startups in the country that would have created over $500 billion of value and employ 3.2 million people.
This talk is about India's growth over the next 15 years and the prominent role that entrepreneurs and startups will play in its rapid evolution.

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The Hive Think Tank: Talk by Mohandas Pai - India at 2030, How Tech Entrepreneurship Will Create A $10 Trillion Economy

  1. 1. INDIA AT 2030 - HOW TECH ENTREPRENEURSHIP WILL CREATE A $10 TRILLION ECONOMY T V MOHANDAS PAI
  2. 2. India is ready to retake its place as a top 3 economy in the world by 2030. “
  3. 3. INDIA AT A GLANCE
  4. 4. INDIA – KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2016 VS. 1991 25 YEARS’ SNAPSHOT POST-LIBERALISATION
  5. 5. INDIA’S GDP GROWTH % - LAST 10 YEARS REGAINING GROWTH MOMENTUM Expected GDP growth rate for 2016-17 is 7.5%
  6. 6. INDIA – GDP PROJECTIONS India needs to grow at 8% CAGR to be a $10 Tril economy by 2035 China’s GDP grew at an average of 9.9% p.a. from 1979 to 2011
  7. 7. THE WORLD IS CHANGING
  8. 8. INDIA & CHINA AT A GLANCE - CHINA HAS GROWN FASTER
  9. 9. TRENDS IN INFLATION (CPI)
  10. 10. SPEND ON SUBSIDY FINALLY SEEMS TO BE GETTING UNDER CONTROL With strong reforms and the use of JAM (Jan Dhan, Aadhar, and Mobile), subsidy leakage will be reduced
  11. 11. INDIA HAS A STRONG INDUSTRIAL BASE
  12. 12. WE HAVE A YOUNG POPULATION
  13. 13. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A YOUNG POPULATION We are NOT an aging country!
  14. 14. HIGHER EDUCATION (HE) INFRASTRUCTURE IN INDIA GROWTH IS ABOUT PEOPLE, WE HAVE INCREASED ACCESS IN HE
  15. 15. WE HAVE ADEQUATE SAVINGS FOR INVESTMENT AND GROWTH
  16. 16. GDP BY SECTOR IN 2014 : INDIA VS CHINA WE HAVE VERY DIFFERENT PATTERNS
  17. 17. INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT INDIA IS SPENDING MUCH BELOW ITS NEED AND CHINA, WAY ABOVE
  18. 18. INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT CHINA’S SPEND IS OVER TWICE THE RATE OF INDIA, ON A MUCH HIGHER GDP BASE IN THE LAST 20 YEARS 18
  19. 19. The Startup Ecosystem will help create a $10 Trillion GDP economy in India by 2030.“
  20. 20. S 3rdLargest startup ecosystem in the World 19,400 startups 270%growth in 6 years $80 BilValue Created
  21. 21. INDIAN STARTUPS AT A GLANCE IndianStartupEcosystem 3rd Largest Startup Ecosystem in the world + Fastest Growing 19,400 startups in India at present. Indian startups raised $3.5 Bil funding in the first half of 2015 and $4.5 Bil in second half of 2015. Total investment in 10 years has crossed $50 Bil. Indian startups raised $3.5 Bil across 815 deals in Q1, Q2 & Q3 in 2016, against $7.3 Bil that was invested across 639 deals during the same period in 2015 76.4% of startups that have raised funding in 2016 YTD are concentrated in Bengaluru, Mumbai and NCR-Delhi region.
  22. 22. NEW FLYWHEEL RAMPING UP 1998 - SW Services took off 2015 - Startups take off Result in 2016: - $175 Bil revenue - $110 Bil exports - 4.25 Mil People Employed 10 year Projection: Fireflies lighting up the sky! - 100,000 Startups - Employment: 3.5 Mil - $500+ Bil in Market Value - #2 after US - 30 Mil SMEs lifted
  23. 23. STARTUP LANDSCAPE BY CITY 19,400 Startups in India Mostly concentrated in Bangalore (31.44%), Delhi (20%), Mumbai (13%) and Chennai (10%) Bangalore strong in B2C
  24. 24. STARTUP VALUATIONS
  25. 25. B2C VALUATIONS $9 bn $6.5 bn $5 bn $5 bn $1 bn
  26. 26. STARTUP VALUATIONS 22% 12% 9% 8% 46% 16% 13% 12% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% NASDAQ SEHK NSE BSE Technologyasapercentageofoverall Set to grow dramatically in coming years No. of companies Market Cap
  27. 27. USE OF DIGITAL PLATFORMS
  28. 28. Startups looklike? So whatwill the futureof
  29. 29. AADHAAR – ZERO TO 1 BIL IN 5.5 YEARS 942M 600M 300M 100M 50M
  30. 30. THE EVOLUTION OF THE INDIA STACK – BUILT ON JAM 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 AEP S Aadhaar Authentication APB Aadhaar eKyc eSign UPI Consent Architecture Digilocker GSTN 950 M 1005 M 196 M Aadhaar Mobile JDY 2009 944 M 600 M 100 M Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, PMJDY, Aadhaar Web Sites
  31. 31. ACCELERATED BY REGULATORY INNOVATION Source: News Reports BANK LIBERALIZATION 1969 1980 199 3 2001 2014 2015 +14 +6 +10 +2 +2 +2145 Years 14 Banks in 3Months Ushering in a new ERA of DIFFERENTIATED BANKING BANK NATIONALIZATION
  32. 32. PRESENCE-LESS LAYER Aadhaar Authentication Unique digital biometric identity with open access of nearly a Billion users CONSENT LAYER Open Personal Data Store Provides a modern privacy data sharing framework PAPERLESS LAYER Aadhaar e-KYC, E-sign, Digital Locker Rapidly growing base of paperless systems with billions of artifacts CASHLESS LAYER IMPS, AEPS, APB, and UPI Game changing electronic payment systems and transition to cashless economy COMMERCE (GSTn) CREDIT (RBI) INVESTMENTS (SEBI) OTHERS INDIASTACK SKILLS JAM Jan Dhan + Aadhaar + Mobile
  33. 33. WE WILL GO FROM DATA POOR TO DATA RICH NATION IN 5 YEARS! Digital Identity Paperless Process Commerce Payment Social Machine Intelligence & Automation
  34. 34. TO INCREASE MARKET SIZE BY 10X TO 50X, THE COST OF DOING BUSINESS MUST BE BROUGHT DOWN!
  35. 35. Need a loan Sees loan offers Accepts best offer Receives loan Gets paid digitally Repays loan Agrees to share data Data sharing norms & tech Credit marketplace app Credit market -place paperless contract Transaction a/c & app Payment app Payment app Aadhaar/ eKYC digi locker API for loan offers eSign Digilocker UPI auth orization api UPI UPI Credit without friction will bring millions into the formal economy! Paperless instant credit markets based on digital exhaust
  36. 36. ● Digitize their supply chains ● Increase consumption of digital infrastructure - payments, logistics, etc. ● Leave digital footprints for service providers, and customers alike. ● Digitize their customers ● The best aggregators use these digital footprints to enhance their services! NEW AGE PLATFORMS ARE DIGITIZING THEIR ECOSYSTEMS Customers Platforms Service Providers Product Providers Partners
  37. 37. Jobs / Provider Jobs = Service Providers ×
  38. 38. Only 6,500 Employees 1.5 Mil Cars & Drivers New Age Platforms Create a few, high-value jobs that can be leveraged to enable service providers. Service Providers Large number of service providers Each service provider creates multiple jobs
  39. 39. 10,000 Hospitals 200,000 Doctors, Labs, etc. 1.5 Mil Cars 0.25 Mil Cars 100,000+ Merchants 5,000 Employees 6,500 Employees 8,000 Employees 4,500 Employees 100,000+ Merchants Logistics, Support 23,000 Employees
  40. 40. ACCELERATING CHANGE! 1. Bharat embracing Smartphones - Stayzilla sells more hotel rooms than MakeMyTrip - Newshunt is bigger than Times of India in readership Aadhaar: open digital biometric identity Paperless: E-sign, Digi-Locker and eKYC Payment layer: IMPS and UPI Country commercial transaction layer: GSTn Open Privacy Consent Network: Dec launch 2. Open API “India Stack” - Aadhaar is 900 Mil – Bhamashah huge opp. - IMPS bigger than Visa/MC - GSTn will see 3 Bil invoices/month - India will have largest e-sign user base by Dec 2016 - Democratized innovation
  41. 41. India Stack as Digital Infrastructure Regulatory Policy Market Making Policy via Challenge Grants 100s of Experiments - Low barriers to entry - Level playing field - Aligned to national issues - Rapid success/failure cycle A robust foundation to enable innovative solutions to India’s hard problems Innovative Solutions to India’s Hard Problems - Commercially Viable - Far reaching consumer impact - Reinforces experimentation
  42. 42. India is optimizing to empower problem solvers. Startups will be the force multiplier to catapult the country into a $10 Trillion economy by 2030. “

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