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2020.02.24 Roth New Pacific Report


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2020.02.24 Roth New Pacific Report

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2020.02.24 Roth New Pacific Report

  1. 1. Joe Reagor, (949) 720-7106 Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820 COMPANY NOTE | EQUITY RESEARCH | February 24, 2020 Resources New Pacific Metals Corp. | NUAG.V - C$6.00 - TSXV | Buy Company Update Stock Data 52-Week Low - High C$1.66 - C$6.98 Shares Out. (mil) 147.44 Mkt. Cap.(mil) C$884.66 3-Mo. Avg. Vol. 144,413 12-Mo.Price Target C$6.25 Cash (mil) C$42.3 Tot. Debt (mil) C$0.0 Cash (mil): Cash is as of last published quarter and excludes any additional capital raises. Cash also includes short-term investments. EPS C$ Yr Jun —2018— —2019— —2020E— Curr Curr Prev 1Q (0.01)A (0.01)A 0.01A 0.01A 2Q (0.01)A 0.00A (0.01)A 0.00 E 3Q 0.00A 0.00A 0.00E 0.00E 4Q (0.01)A (0.02)A 0.00E 0.00E YEAR (0.03)A (0.02)A (0.01)E 0.00 E Revenue (C$ millions) Yr Jun —2018— —2019— —2020E— Curr Curr 1Q 0.0A 0.0A 0.0A 2Q 0.0A 0.0A 0.0A 3Q 0.0A 0.0A 0.0E 4Q 0.0A 0.0A 0.0E YEAR 0.0A 0.0A 0.0E 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 PriceVol (m) NUAG.V One-Year Price and Volume History NUAG.V: Final 2019 Drill Holes Show Higher Grade On February 19, 2020, NUAG released its final round of drill results from its 2019 drill campaign. The final 37 holes showed higher average grades as compared to the average grade of all prior results at the project. We view this as positive and believe the next major catalyst for the company should be an initial resource estimate. As such, we are maintaining our Buy rating and CAD $6.25 price target. Final 2019 assays show higher average grades. On February 19, 2020, NUAG released its final assay results from its 2019 drill program. The results were from 37 additional drill holes and included holes from both Silver Sand Main and Snake Hole. Of the 37 holes, 35 showed significant intervals of mineralization with an average thickness of 49.9 meters and an average grade of 128.8 g/t silver per hole. We note the interval average was slightly below the historical average while the grades were approximately 30% higher. Initial resource estimate should be next major catalyst. With all of the 2019 drill assays received, we believe NUAG will work to complete an initial resource estimate in late Q1 or early Q2 2020. We continue to estimate an initial resource estimate of 250 million ounces of silver with an average grade of 90+ g/t, but believe this could prove conservative depending on pit shape and cutoff grade assumptions. Thus, we believe the initial resource estimate could provide a significant positive catalyst for the company. Maintaining rating and target. In this report we also updated for NUAG's recent financial results for fiscal Q2 2020, which we view as insignificant. Additionally, we have not made any changes to our expectations around NUAG's initial resource estimate. Thus, we are maintaining our Buy rating and CAD$6.25 price target. Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 5 to 6 of this report. Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 888 San Clemente Drive | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
  2. 2. VALUATION We note NUAG is at an earlier stage than the majority of the other mining companies we cover, but believe the company’s Silver Sand asset is too unique to ignore until further information becomes available. We base our valuation of NUAG off of the expectation of an initial resource of 250 million ounces of silver or more. We believe a resource of this magnitude and at the grades NUAG has seen to date would likely trade at a premium to other early-stage silver assets. Thus, we are assigning a value of USD$2.00 per ounce to our minimum expected resource of 250 million ounces of silver to arrive at a project value of CAD$650 million. To this we add CAD$48.5 million in cash and equivalents as of the end of fiscal Q2 2020 and CAD$250 million for potential upside to our resource estimate and further exploration potential across the company's land package. Thus, we arrive at a total value of CAD$948.5 million or CAD$6.17 per share fully diluted. We round this up to reach our CAD$6.25 price target and we are maintaining our Buy rating. While we note that our valuation of NUAG falls outside ROTH's definition of a Buy rating, we have elected to maintain our Buy rating as we believe the company's coming catalysts are likely to be viewed positively by the market. We intend to reevaluate our price target once the company provides an initial resource estimate, which we expect to be released in the next 90 days. Factors that could cause NUAG's valuation to differ from our price target include, but are not limited to: unexpected dilutive transactions, variance from our resource expectations, regulatory decisions, drill results that differ from expectations, unexpected delays, unexpected technical issues, and other unforeseeable events. RISKS Political risk. Natural resource companies are subject to significant political risk. Although most mining jurisdictions have known laws, potential exists for these laws to change. As a Bolivia focused company, NUAG has slightly higher political risk than other similar stage mining companies. Commodity price risk. All natural resource companies have some form of commodity price risk. This risk is not only related to final products, but can also be in regards to input costs and substitute goods. NUAG’s biggest commodity price risk is to that of silver, but the company also has exposure to input costs such as energy. Operational and technical risk. Natural resources companies have significant operational and technical risks. Despite completing NI 43-101 compliant (or similar) resource estimates, deposits can still vary significantly compared to expectations. Additionally, numerous unforeseeable issues can occur with operations and exploration activities. Given the early-stage nature of the Silver sand project, SVM has significantly greater technical risk to other later-stage exploration companies. Pre-revenue risk. New Pacific is a pre-revenue company and is likely to need significant additional capital in order to reach positive cash flow. There is also no guarantee the company will ever become cash flow positive. Market risk. Although most natural resource companies are more closely tied to individual commodity price performance, large business cycle forces or economic crises can impact a company’s valuation significantly. NUAG has similar market risk to other precious metals companies. Cautionary Note to US Investors: Estimates of Measured, Indicated and Inferred Resources “Measured Mineral Resources” and “Indicated Mineral Resources.” US investors are advised that although these terms are required by Canadian regulations, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) does not recognize them, and describes the equivalent as “Mineralized Material.” US investors are cautioned not to assume that these terms are any form of guarantee. “Inferred Mineral Resources.” US Investors are advised that while this term is required by Canadian regulations, the SEC does not recognize it. “Inferred Mineral Resources” are not delineated with a great deal of certainty and should not be considered likely to be brought into production in whole or in part. Page 2 of 6 NEW PACIFIC METALS CORP. Company Note - February 24, 2020
  3. 3. COMPANY DESCRIPTION New Pacific Metals Corp. is a Canada-based mineral exploration and development company. It is a mining issuer company engaged in exploring and developing mineral properties in Bolivia, Canada and China. The Company’s projects are Silver Sand Property, Tagish Lake Gold Property and RZY Silver-Lead-Zinc Project. The Silver Sand Property is located in the Potos Department, Bolivia. The property consists of 17 contiguous concessions totalling 3.15 square kilometers. The Tagish Lake Gold Property is located in Yukon Territory, Canada, and consists of 1,510 mining claims with three identified gold and gold-silver mineral deposits: Skukum Creek, Goddell Gully and Mount Skukum. The RZY Silver-Lead-Zinc Project is an early stage silver-lead-zinc exploration project located in Qinghai, China. The RZY Project is located approximately 296 kilometers from the capital city of Yushu. New Pacific Investment Corp is the Company’s wholly-owned subsidiary.Source: Refinitiv as of 2/23/2020 Page 3 of 6 NEW PACIFIC METALS CORP. Company Note - February 24, 2020
  4. 4. Amounts in CAD$ million 2018A 1Q19A 2Q19A 3Q19A 4Q19A 2019A 1Q20A 2Q20A 3Q20E 4Q20E 2020E Revenue - - - - - - - - - - - Operating Expenses 4.6 0.4 0.6 (0.4) 1.2 1.7 (1.0) 1.3 0.7 0.5 1.5 Operating Income (4.6) (0.4) (0.6) 0.4 (1.2) (1.7) 1.0 (1.3) (0.7) (0.5) (1.5) Other Expenses (0.5) 0.3 (1.1) 0.4 1.1 0.8 (0.2) 0.3 - - 0.1 Pretax Income (4.1) (0.8) 0.5 (0.0) (2.3) (2.6) 1.2 (1.6) (0.7) (0.5) (1.6) Taxes - - - - - - - - - - - Net Income (4.1) (0.8) 0.5 (0.0) (2.1) (2.4) 1.2 (1.6) (0.7) (0.5) (1.6) Basic Shares 122.1 132.5 132.7 132.9 137.2 133.8 142.6 146.1 147.3 147.3 145.8 FD Shares 122.1 132.5 134.0 132.9 137.2 133.8 145.0 146.1 153.9 153.9 149.7 Basic EPS ($0.03) ($0.01) $0.00 ($0.00) ($0.02) ($0.02) $0.01 ($0.01) ($0.00) ($0.00) ($0.01) FD EPS ($0.03) ($0.01) $0.00 ($0.00) ($0.02) ($0.02) $0.01 ($0.01) ($0.00) ($0.00) ($0.01) Joseph Reagor (949)-720-7106 Source: SEC Filings, ROTH Capital Partners estimates New Pacific Key Estimates Page 4 of 6 NEW PACIFIC METALS CORP. Company Note - February 24, 2020
  5. 5. Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Disclosures: Within the last twelve months, ROTH has received compensation for investment banking services from New Pacific Metals Corp.. Shares of New Pacific Metals Corp. and Silvercorp Metals Inc. may be subject to the Securities and Exchange Commission's Penny Stock Rules, which may set forth sales practice requirements for certain low-priced securities. Within the last twelve months, ROTH has managed or co-managed a public offering for New Pacific Metals Corp.. ROTH makes a market in shares of Silvercorp Metals Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. Rating and Price Target History for: New Pacific Metals Corp. (NUAG.V) as of 02-21-2020 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 2019 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020 Q1 02/15/18 I:B:$3 06/07/19 B:$3.5 08/29/19 B:$4.25 12/02/19 B:$5.5 01/13/20 B:$6.25 Created by: BlueMatrix Rating and Price Target History for: Silvercorp Metals Inc. (SVM) as of 02-21-2020 6 5 4 3 2 1 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 2019 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020 Q1 08/28/17 I:B:$3.5 11/09/17 B:$3.8 05/29/18 B:$4.25 08/12/19 B:$4.5 09/04/19 B:$5.25 11/11/19 B:$5.5 02/10/20 B:$6 Created by: BlueMatrix Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. Page 5 of 6 NEW PACIFIC METALS CORP. Company Note - February 24, 2020
  6. 6. as of 02/24/20 Rating Count Percent Count Percent Buy [B] 260 75.36 149 57.31 Neutral [N] 42 12.17 19 45.24 Sell [S] 5 1.45 2 40.00 Under Review [UR] 35 10.14 17 48.57 Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12- month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Under Review [UR]: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, indicates the temporary removal of the prior rating, price target and estimates for the security. Prior rating, price target and estimates should no longer be relied upon for UR-rated securities. Not Covered [NC]: ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. This is not, however, an offer or solicitation of the securities discussed. Any opinions or estimates in this report are subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the express written permission of ROTH. Copyright 2020. Member: FINRA/SIPC. Page 6 of 6 NEW PACIFIC METALS CORP. Company Note - February 24, 2020