Creating and Evaluating Ideas
lessons from the trenches
TheHustle Trends April 2020

My Background
Co-founder and CEO, Sprig
Growth Advisor, Lyft
Co-founder and President, Udemy
at least 4 other non-profits + businesses

Ideas Come from Anywhere
Everywhere

On the Shoulders of Giants

Quiet your ego

Opportunity
Bootstrap
Small
($0-$2M)
Bootstrap
Medium
($2M-$10M)
Bootstrap
Big
($10M-$500M)
Startup
($1B+)
Capital
Requirements
Quit job; earn
right away
Invest a bit;
earn in 6
months
Invest a lot;
earn in 6-18
months
Own very little;
quit job; raise
in 6-18 months
Likelihood of
Success
Very high
60%+
Reasonably
high
45%+
Moderate
25%+
Low
10%+
Competition /
Market
Landscape
Very Crowded
OK
Small,
Underserved
Market
or
Unique biz in
Large Market
Large,
Underserved
Market
or
Long game /
lead time
Disrupt a large
existing market
or
Create an
extremely large
market
Business Types

Key Questions
Why are customers in this market under-served?
How does new technology provide an inherent
competitive advantage against existing options?
What’s the “bet the company” thesis that creates long-
term advantage over other upstarts?

Key Questions
Why are customers in this market under-served?
How does new technology provide an inherent
competitive advantage against existing options?
What’s the “bet the company” thesis that creates long-
term advantage over other upstarts?

Selection
Price
Quality
It’s hard to find specific skills training that
is current and high quality
Skills training is expensive due to the high
costs of in-person education
The top 1% of instructors are much better than
the other 99%

Selection
Price
Quality
An Open Marketplace can create a
larger selection than any bookstore
Recorded video enables an affordable
to get education from the best instructors
Financial incentives will attract the best
instructors

Key insight:
The largest marketplace for online courses will win this
market
Core Competency:
Growth Marketing, Instructor Acquisition

Growth Marketing: Learn to sell courses on hot topics
Instructor Acquisition: Show me the money!

Convenience
Price
Quality
Public transportation (taxis, buses) are
incredibly inconvenient
Convenient options are insanely
expensive
Most transportation options are
unpleasant and unsafe

Convenience
Price
Quality
On-demand is the most convenient way
to get from A to B
Ridesharing enables the lowest price
due to open competition
Community builds a safe, pleasant
customer experience

Key insight:
An open community of drivers can make on-demand
transportation ubiquitous
Bonus: Uber is going to crush us if we don’t differentiate
Core Competency:
Real-time Operations, Regulatory, Brand

Operations: Driver scale leads to growth
Regulatory: Don’t be an asshole
Brand: Real people drive these cars

Quality
Convenience
Price
Mass market food generally sucks
Cooking is insanely inconvenient but is
the only way to eat well
Customers are willing to spend a bit
more for higher quality

Quality
Convenience
Price
Making our own food ensures product
quality at scale
On-demand enables dramatic
improvements in convenience
Organic is worth the increase in cost

You can’t know if you’re right until its too late.
Quality
Convenience
Price
Selection ended up
being more important

There is a Process
It’s Art, not Science

Business/Startups/Ideas before Lean Startup
shut-down. no traction for 2 years. wasted effort.

Minimum Viable Test
Step 1: Write down all hypotheses your
idea is reliant on to succeed
Step 2: Rank them by likeliest to kill the
idea
Step 3: Try to disprove it through a
minimum viable test

Example: Sprig
People will not want our food
People will not like the price
People don’t order delivery
We can’t find chefs
Delivering profitably is hard
Operations are too difficult
Market size is too small

Example: Sprig
Operations are too difficult
Delivering profitably is hard
We can’t find chefs
Market size is too small
People will not want our food
People will not like the price
People don’t order delivery
Can we do it?
Will it be worth
the effort?
Will people
want it?

Example Concerns you should have
1. You build something nobody wants.
2. You build something nobody wants.
3. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze.
4. You can’t build the thing people want.
5. You fail to execute.

Background Research
Then, get on the phone and call them!!!

First Test

An entire logistics platform with no code

Bonus