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S curve presentation www.crowd-funders.nl

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This presentation shows the remarkable obedience of new innovations to the S-curve paradigm

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S curve presentation www.crowd-funders.nl

  1. 1. Magic S-curve Ir.  Hendrik  C.  de  Lange  Patent  A2orney  and  Founder  of   Octrooifabriek   16-­‐03-­‐2012  
  2. 2. The S-curve•  Represents  natural  growth  •  Represents  market  penetraHon  
  3. 3. The S-curve formula !!"# !! = !!(!!!! ) ! !!!t0      =  Hme  of  the  Hpping  point,  when  a  market            penetraHon  of  50%  is  reached  α      =  accelerator  Nmax    =  Saturated  marked  volume  
  4. 4. Global internet hostsWithin  40  years,  the  global   1.4  Billion  number  of  internet  hosts    reached  50%  of  its    market  potenHal           1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010   2020   2030   2040  
  5. 5. Facebook users 1  billion   Within  6.4  years,  Facebook   reached  50%  of  its  global     market  potenHal    2004   2012   2020  
  6. 6. Tweets per second  Within  6  years  from  Twi2ers  introducHon,    the  total  number  of  tweets     9000  per  second  will  reach    50%  of  its  market    PotenHal       01-­‐01-­‐05   01-­‐01-­‐07   01-­‐01-­‐09   01-­‐01-­‐11   01-­‐01-­‐13   01-­‐01-­‐15   01-­‐01-­‐17   01-­‐01-­‐19   01-­‐01-­‐21  
  7. 7. Kickstarter projects  Within  4.4  years  from  Kickstarters  introducHon,  the  annual  number  of  projects     9000  will  reach  50%  of  its  market    potenHal*       2006   2008   2010   2012   2014   2016   2018  *Because  of  only  three  datapoints,    the  esHmated  market  potenHal  is  of  indicaHve  value  only        
  8. 8. Some remarks  •  Only  one  new  datapoint  can  dramaHcally  change    the  predicted  market  potenHal  and  the  Hme      to  reach  the  point  of  50%  market  potenHal.  •  Although  the  data  sets  all  perfectly  fit  on  the            S-­‐curve,  the  predicHve  value  is  of  indicaHve      nature  only      
  9. 9. Thank you  Thank  you  for  your  a2enHon!       Hendrik  C.  de  Lange     Octrooifabriek   www.octrooifabriek.nl    

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