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2020 Trends


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May, 16 2011 Marian Salzman (Havas PR CEO) presentation given at Media Future Week on trends and what will affect our world in the next decade.

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2020 Trends

  1. 1. 22002200 TTrreennddss:: What Will Affect Our World in the Next Decade? Media Future Week Marian Salzman May 16, 2011 @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  2. 2. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting Why Trends? Why do we look at trends when creating actionable and insightful strategies for big brands?
  3. 3. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting Why Trends? Why do we look at trends when creating actionable and insightful strategies for big brands? •To identify the driving forces behind today and the future and plan for long-term success.
  4. 4. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting Why Trends? Why do we look at trends when creating actionable and insightful strategies for big brands? •To identify the driving forces behind today and the future and plan for long-term success. •To discover unexpected opportunities that can help transform brands and businesses.
  5. 5. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting Why Trends? Why do we look at trends when creating actionable and insightful strategies for big brands? •To identify the driving forces behind today and the future and plan for long-term success. •To discover unexpected opportunities that can help transform brands and businesses. •To manage into change by giving insight into the drivers of key business, consumer and social trends.
  6. 6. Learning to Spot Trends It means tracking @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting people social momentum companies radical breakthroughs brands economies
  7. 7. Spotting trends is big business for people in many industries who need to be thinking ahead, for themselves and their clients. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  8. 8. And, really, isn’t that everyone today? @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  9. 9. Unquestionably, it’s everyone in this audience today. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  10. 10. 11.5 Macro Trends for 2020 (and How They Mean Business) @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  11. 11. 1. Mother Earth Needs Valium @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  12. 12. 1. Mother Earth Needs Valium •Maybe in the decades of prosperity we forgot how much we depend on Mother Earth. Then came Hurricane Katrina and all the ensuing worrying signs: tornadoes ripping across the southern U.S.; massive flooding in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Australia; a heat wave in Russia; torrential rain and mudslides in Brazil…. •The jury is still out on whether it’s man-made or not. But either way, the climate is changing and getting decidedly weird. •Are seismic events getting more frequent, too? The 2004 Asian earthquake and tsunami; earthquakes in Spain, China, Haiti, Chile and New Zealand; the volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland and Merapi in Indonesia last year; and this year’s Japanese earthquake and tsunami. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  13. 13. 1. Mother Earth Needs Valium •What’s next? Could the La Palma volcano in the Canaries erupt and send a megatsunami across to flatten the U.S. East Coast? Could the Yellowstone Supervolcano blow up into the finale to end all finales, with Americans getting a ringside seat? •Only economic engineering, with a massive injection and drip feed of money, have saved the world from near economic catastrophe so far. What sort of geo-engineering do we need to save the world? •How big a valium would we need to calm Mother Earth? @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  14. 14. How Trend No. 1 Means Business: The Dutch have arguably the world’s best record in geo-engineering with water management; when the world fears eco-bust, Dutch can think geo- boom. Businesses everywhere need to be sure they’re better prepared than Tokyo Electric Power Co. Not many countries would behave as meekly as the Japanese. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  15. 15. #mamaneedspills @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  16. 16. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting 2. Tobacco,GMOs, Trans Fats... What’s Next?
  17. 17. 2. Tobacco, GMOs, Trans Fats…What’s Next? •When so many things turn out to pose health risks, what can consumers trust? Which everyday products could kill them? We’re all familiar with these: – Tobacco. Doctors and a young Ronald Reagan promoted the health benefits of cigarettes. Even after medical research found conclusive proof of health risks, tobacco companies continued to refute it. – GMOs. When genetically modified organisms hit the headlines around a decade ago—after the BSE scandal—Europeans talked of Frankenstein foods and set strict regulations. As of April 2011, the EU is still hesitant; GMO cultivation is limited. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  18. 18. 2. Tobacco, GMOs, Trans Fats…What’s Next? And next, wireless communications?: – Cell phones. For a decade, people have been wondering whether cell phones bring health risks—especially brain tumors—but the U.S. FDA says, “The weight of scientific evidence has not linked cell phones with any health problems.” In Europe, many sites are quoting a 2007 report from the European Environment Agency saying that cell-phone technology “could lead to a health crisis similar to those caused by asbestos, smoking and lead in petrol.” •The concerns aren’t stopping cell phones and Wi-Fi from being widely adopted, so the potential for an issue is growing. Although maybe the worries will switch to repetitive strain injury—teens and young adults, especially, spend far more time texting than calling. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  19. 19. How Trend No. 2 Means Business: Everything could change with a “perfect wireless storm.” Everyone in cell-phone and Wi-Fi provision needs to think about potential vulnerability to claims by millions–maybe hundreds of millions–of global consumers. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  20. 20. #nowwhat @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  21. 21. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting 3. Water: The Next Oil
  22. 22. 3. Water: The Next Oil •People have been talking for decades about water as the next oil, but it will soon become a scary truth—and we’re not talking bottled water, which already costs as much as car fuel. •Drier places in the world (Australia, the Middle East, the American Southwest) have long lived with drought and squabbled over water resources for the basics of life: drinking and growing food. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  23. 23. 3. Water: The Next Oil •Now, modern consumption and hygiene habits, plus today’s population growth, have been draining reservoirs, rivers and groundwater faster than a bathtub with the plug pulled. •Whole seas have been shrinking—the Aral Sea in Central Asia and the Dead Sea in the Middle East, and in the U.S., Lake Mead was an estimated 54 percent empty in 2008. With climate change, southern Europe could become even more like North Africa. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  24. 24. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting How Trend No. 3 Means Business: The slowly unfolding water crisis is a great opportunity for businesses to roll out more water-efficient products for newly conscientious consumers. Companies and countries with a track record in water will be especially well placed.
  25. 25. #nobusinesslikeflowbusiness @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  26. 26. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting 4. What’s Not Online-able Is Doomed
  27. 27. 4. What’s Not Online- able Is Doomed •In the 1980s, CDs made LPs obsolete, then MP3 music through the Internet started killing CDs and undermining the whole old-style music industry. •In the late 1990s, DVDs started replacing VHS tapes; a decade later, DVDs are under pressure from Tivo-style DVRs and on-demand Internet-delivery services. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  28. 28. 4. What’s Not Online- able Is Doomed •Digital cameras hit consumer markets in the early 2000s; in 2005, Kodak’s digital products and services overtook its film product sales. Now, who needs a camera when a mobile phone can take pictures and upload them to view online? •Printed books, magazines and newspapers are selling less, and the contents are being consumed more on computers and pads. In February 2011, e-book sales overtook print book sales with a 202 percent month-over-month increase. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  29. 29. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting How Trend No. 4 Means Business: Consumers value being able to do things online–including having friendships. Brands or products that have smart online elements will beat those that don’t.
  30. 30. #getonorgohome @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  31. 31. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting 5. The New Social: Antisocial
  32. 32. 5. The New Social: Antisocial •Even if we don’t like the name, we all love social media. But sometimes its paradoxes are just plain ridiculous—or tragic. •These days, people don’t smoke when they’re feeling nervous in a social setting; they check their FB page or Twitter feed on their mobile device (as antisocial to people nearby as having cigarette smoke blown on them). •Some people even check their mobile device while they’re walking along the street or in stores, oblivious to the people around them—until they bump into them. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  33. 33. 5. The New Social: Antisocial •The “new social” often interrupts physical interactions with people—attention keeps flitting from the face-to-face conversation to the online action. •It’s a one-way trend of more technology, nevertheless. Another 10 years of smart phones (iPhone 15?) and tablets (iPad 13?) will make it even more compelling for consumers to conduct social interactions through their technology. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  34. 34. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting How Trend No. 5 Means Business: As consumers’ social interactions are mediated more by tech, companies have a huge scope for making money with hardware, software and services that enhance them.
  35. 35. #socialsecurity @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  36. 36. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting 6. The Brain and Homo Sapiens 2.0
  37. 37. 6. The Brain and Homo Sapiens 2.0 •Neuroscience is the new rock ’n’ roll, the new darling of the media, looking into brains with high-tech scanners and revealing the workings of everything from addiction to love. •It holds out the promise of enhancing memory and creativity, as well as offering better treatment for illnesses such as dementia and Parkinson’s, and delaying the aging of the brain with supplements, drugs and devices. •And there’s more… @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  38. 38. 6. The Brain and Homo Sapiens 2.0 •We now know that our brains are shaped—literally—by what we experience. And what we are increasingly experiencing is interactive technology mediated through the screens that represent the world to us. •Now we have the scientific instruments to see how the technical tools we’re using are changing our brains. We have a box seat to watch the emergence of Homo sapiens 2.0. “Perhaps not since early man first discovered how to use a tool has the human brain been affected so quickly and so dramatically.” —UCLA neuroscientist Gary Small on modern technology @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  39. 39. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting How Trend No. 6 Means Business: Watch as n (for “neuro”) gets applied to brain products and services: nBoosters, nHancers, nNutrients, nGames, nGagement. Get into people’s brains yourself by becoming a detached anthropologist to notice key points that might not be apparent to insiders (who might be too busy screen-watching).
  40. 40. #brainsgetsmart @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  41. 41. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting 7. More Real than Real
  42. 42. 7. More Real than Real •Even in the dark ages of computer graphics, the U.S. Marines were using a version of first-person shooter game Doom for training, and airline pilots were training on simulators. •Now with CGI and 3-D, gamemakers and moviemakers are creating experiences more vivid, more stimulating and more immersive than virtually anything in the mundane physical world of everyday reality. •Military pilots “fly” unmanned drones on combat missions, and millions of civilians immerse themselves in hyperrealistic computer games for hours on end. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  43. 43. 7. More Real than Real •It doesn’t even need fancy graphics: Interactions on simple text-based social media platforms such as Facebook are typically experienced comparably to offline interactions (online-ability strikes again!). •Some consumers already tend to find ordinary life experiences less “real” than mediated virtual experiences. As computing power increases and technology companies refine their offerings, growing numbers of consumers will drive this trend. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  44. 44. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting How Trend No. 7 Means Business: In the struggle for consumers’ attention, there are two options: Pay out a lot of money for Matrix and Avatar levels of vividness or get much smarter at lower-cost “nGagement.”
  45. 45. #virtualnecessity @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  46. 46. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting 8. Hyperlocal Is the New Global
  47. 47. 8. Hyperlocal Is the New Global •It’s interesting to know what’s happening in other parts of the world, but how much does it really matter? Compare it with what’s happening hyperlocally, right on your doorstep, which is more likely to be useful and virtually guaranteed to be relevant. •All the hot new online services are either about where people live or work (Groupon in the U.S., Mecom in the Netherlands and other parts of Europe, ProXiti in France, Patch in the U.S.) or where you are right now with your mobile device (Foursquare, Gowalla), so that they can deliver news, information and deals that are likely to matter to you. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  48. 48. 8. Hyperlocal Is the New Global •Hyperlocal media is more than just the traditional local newspaper or broadcasting delivered through the Internet: It patches together journalism, bloggers, citizen journalists, and people taking videos and photos in an online grapevine. •Hyperlocal media uses the real-time, multimedia, interactive power of the Internet to strengthen connections within and between local communities. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  49. 49. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting How Trend No. 8 Means Business: With the Internet, businesses can track consumer choices and adjust offers to match. Hyperlocal media makes them even more relevant to consumers and their communities.
  50. 50. #locoforlocal @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  51. 51. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting 9. USA: No. Internet: Yes.
  52. 52. 9. USA: No. Internet: Yes. •Although the United States still has many of the world’s biggest tech brands, it no longer dominates the action on the Internet. North America now accounts for just 13.5 percent of Internet users, compared with 24.2 percent in Europe and 42 percent in Asia. •Silicon Valley is the spiritual home of the Internet, and the U.S. government (DARPA) is its spiritual father, but the Internet is now bigger than both. The Internet has made a fading United States less important as a physical place in the world. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  53. 53. 9. USA: No. Internet: Yes. •Today, many of the best bits of the U.S. are available on the Internet 24/7: music, movies, sports, TV, keynote speakers on TED, educational materials. It’s always there virtually, so there’s less need to go there physically. •The more time consumers spend online, the more their cyberspace destinations will blur with physical locations in their mind. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  54. 54. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting How Trend No. 9 Means Business: The Internet is ousting America as the iconic Land of Dreams. People with great ideas and determination can meet up online, make things happen and make their fortune (without the green card hassle).
  55. 55. #netgain @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  56. 56. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting 10. English Out, Globish In
  57. 57. 10. English Out, Globish In •Ambitious people with an eye on the coming superpower might be learning Mandarin as a second language, but most of the rest of the world is learning English. It’s the network effect at work. •Globetrotting French businessman Jean-Paul Nerrière noticed how many non-native speakers struggled with “proper English” and set about creating a standardized, simplified form of English with a vocabulary of 1,500 words and a simple structure—a world language called Globish. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  58. 58. 10. English Out, Globish In •In keeping with the online-ability imperative, anybody interested in learning the slimmed-down global English can go to and start learning. •The Globish initiative has fired up journalist Robert McCrum, who made an authoritative TV documentary of the English language 25 years ago. He now sees Globish as the language of the Internet-powered world. “English plus Microsoft equals a new cultural revolution…a global means of communication that is irrepressibly contagious, adaptable, populist and subversive.” —Robert McCrum @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  59. 59. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting How Trend No. 10 Means Business: In data communication, TCP/IP and HTML enabled people in any country with any computer to communicate. In verbal communication, Globish has the potential to do the same. Brands need to learn Globish.
  60. 60. #confluency @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  61. 61. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting 11. Long, Sloooow, Demanding TV
  62. 62. 11. Long, Sloooow, Demanding TV •For a long time, everything seemed to be getting faster and shorter—MTV videos, fast-cut movie action sequences and now millions of YouTube clips. Not much attention required. •Then came much more demanding long-form TV series with much less action and much more complex plotlines spread over many episodes and multiple series—think “Lost,” “The Wire,” “Deadwood,” “Mad Men.” @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  63. 63. 11. Long, Sloooow, Demanding TV •As a yin to the yang of youth-targeted, fast-twitch TV, demand for complex long-form TV has grown organically as mature consumers get drawn in and find themselves hooked. •Europe has developed a taste for swapping loooong, sloooow gritty crime dramas shown in the original language with subtitles—“The Killing” (“Forbrydelsen”) from Denmark, “Spiral” (“Engrenages”) from France, “Wallander” from Sweden. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  64. 64. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting How Trend No. 11 Means Business: Out in Consumerland, there is an appetite for content that rewards adult attention and sophisticated intelligence. The catch: It requires those traits from producers and consumers.
  65. 65. #payattention @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  66. 66. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting 11.5Career Kick Start
  67. 67. 11.5 Career Kick Start •Some choose to start over; others are forced by circumstance. Either way, hundreds of thousands of people are embarking on new careers. Great Recession = Great Kick Start? •Many older people have been forced back to work because pensions, savings or investments don’t cover their costs of living—and increasing life spans mean they’ll need even more. •Fewer workers means lower costs for businesses—but also less money for consumers to spend on their products. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  68. 68. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting How Trend No. 11.5 Means Business: The more businesses can foster people starting new careers, the more money consumers will have to spend on the products businesses make.
  69. 69. #back2work @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  70. 70. What It All Means •Unexpected quakes (whether the death of Bin Laden or perma-rattles in Tokyo) cause lasting shudders. •The real-time news ticker with the stock indices gives us all a minute-by-minute measure of the ROI of the consuming life—we have become “bad news bears.” •“Mycasting” becomes the name of the news dissemination game, and we’re all in the control booth. •Miniature, flexible and portable—from the cloud to the idea of classrooms in backpacks versus backpacks in classrooms. Have office, will travel (or not). •Everything is changing faster, more furiously and sometimes with less purpose than ever. Stress fuels decades of adult life. •ADD is the new normal. If you can’t multitask, you’re a white elephant. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting
  71. 71. Dank je Wel. @ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting