Harvest Market Insight 2010 Presentation

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Harvest Market Insight 2010 Presentation

  1. 1. HARVEST MARKET INSIGHT 2010 “ Serving the International Investor” Harvest Financial Services Ltd Regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission, License Number 021/03 – Member of the Investor Protection Fund (TAE) CONTACT: Telephone + 357 22 552800 info@harvestgroup.com.cy This document is for informational purposes only. This document does not constitute an offer, an invitation to offer, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction, nor does it constitute investment advice. This material does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities in any jurisdiction in which such a solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such a solicitation.
  2. 2. Table of Contents I. Economic Outlook I. Economic Outlook II. Equities II. Equities III. Fixed Income III. Fixed Income IV. Currencies IV. Currencies V. Real Estate V. Real Estate VI. Harvest Funds VI. Harvest Funds 2
  3. 3. Market Outlook 2010 The recovery that was expected after the devastating crisis is expected to be underway and extending into 2010 Expectations 1H 2010: • Uncertainties to continue • Government support reduced • Volatilities to slowly decline Expectations 2H 2010: • Deflationary pressures to end • Rising commodities = higher inflation levels • Huge stimulus packages to result in better consumption and labor market recovery All these given the timing economies plan their monetary and fiscal exit strategies 3
  4. 4. Global Economic Statistics & Forecasts 4
  5. 5. Economic Indicators 5
  6. 6. Equities Outlook Global economic and corporate recovery is likely to continue well into 2010 Equities remain attractively valued and globally trading at a P/E multiple of 14 Top Equity Picks = Europe and UK → P/E 12 → High dividend yields → Forecasted market return 11% Disadvantages: → High risk → High Volatility → Fear of sovereign default of the PIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Greece & Spain → USD 13bln taken out of EU markets since Q3 2009 Forecast CITI Bank, UBS Source (Bloomberg) 6
  7. 7. Focus on Greece Current Situation → Undergone major downgrades → Fiscal deficit 12.7% of GDP → Fear of sovereign default → Uncertainty whether EU or IMF will help → Investors’ sentiment bottomed Our View → Panic state (short term unattractiveness) → Market nearing a bottom → Strong demand for the new government bond issued surpassing supply by 4 times → ECB & IMF showed strong confidence in the government measures → EU preparing a draft bill to protect fiscally weak nations against derivative attacks which would minimize the pressure in few months → A sign of confidence needed from the Greek government to prove credibility of the stability program and restore confidence in the market 7
  8. 8. ASE Technical Analysis Source: Harvest Financial Services 8
  9. 9. Focus on Cyprus Current Situation → Crisis effects being felt across the whole economy → The economy is under pressure (unemployment and government spending) → Developments in Greece are negatively affecting the market outlook → Market is gloomy due to uncertainties within EU and the Euro → Investors’ sentiment is low and very cautious Our View → Panic due to developments in Greece → Market is bottoming out after mass sales in January → Better position and sounder fundamentals than Greece → Gradual recovery expected in 2010-2011 as confirmed by EIU (Economist Intelligence Unit) → Strong earning signs from local listings could trigger a boost to the market → Good signals from Greece could spark an upside reversal of the market 9
  10. 10. CSE Technical Analysis Source: Harvest Financial Services 10
  11. 11. Current Situation: Cyprus & Greece • The stock markets in Cyprus and Greece are trading at near bottom levels • Correction was expected after the strong rally of March to December 2009 • Volatility is expected to remain high throughout 2010 given the current situation • Constant derivative attacks have weakened the Greek market • More than $439bln has been wiped from stocks worldwide since Jan 14 since Greek deficit news became widespread • Greek five year bond yields have surged to their highest point in a decade • The decline of the Euro has worsened the situation • Credit default swaps on Spain and Portugal have risen to a record rate → Consistent negative news are pricing in the market → Markets are at a crucial point where they signal short term negative outlook → The market is in a panic state which is undermining fundamentals 11
  12. 12. Our View: The Market • EU, G7, IMF, ECB and other institutions have shown their support and confidence in Greek market signaling better days ahead • Greek tax revenues in January have exceeded forecasts showing early signs of success towards cutting budget deficit • Credible researchers and economists have already confirmed the scenario that Greece is the victim of speculative attacks and does not need bailout Source: (Wall Street Journal) → Opportunity to use the emotional market environment and build positions → Good time to start entering the equity market at near bottom attractive rates → Invest within February and March prior to corporate announcements’ season → Investing with a short term mindset (less than 6 months) is not an attractive option as small margins can only be obtained within this timeframe → Invest with a long term mindset and hold at least 12 months and wait for cyclical recovery to have a winning portfolio → Fundamentally sound listings (mainly financials) seem attractively priced 12
  13. 13. Restrictions to our expectations • If the Greek government does not show any signs of confidence within the year • If the Greek stability program does not show any results by mid year • If the state puts pressure on Greek banks to buy its government bonds • If Moody’s downgrades Greece below its A2 rating leaving its debt ineligible as collateral at the ECB and disqualify from ECB repo funding • If EU members and ECB change their stance and show no support to Greece • If signs of fiscal weakness from Portugal, Ireland and Spain persists • If the spreads of Greek government bonds do not tighten within the year • If banks in Cyprus and Greece do not reveal good results by March • If strikes persist in Greece on a constant basis bringing the economy to a halt 13
  14. 14. Analyst Ratings (CSE & ASE Financials) 14
  15. 15. Picks for 2010 (Financials) CITI Bank JP Morgan & HSBC (10 Feb 2010) (15 Jan 2010) National Bank of Greece National Bank of Greece Marfin Popular Bank Alpha Bank Bank of Cyprus Bank of Cyprus Our Picks For 2010 National Bank of Greece Alpha Bank Bank of Cyprus Hellenic Bank Marfin Investment Group Merrill Lynch Marfin Analysis (2 Feb 2010) (5 Jan 2010) National Bank of Greece National Bank of Greece Piraeus Bank Alpha Bank Alpha Bank Bank of Cyprus 15
  16. 16. Our Picks for 2010 ETE Alpha BOCY HB MIG Industry Sector S&P 500 Capital Base 11.10% 9.10% 11.10% 13.00% 9.10% Dividend Yield 3.23% 2.13% 3.60% 1.80% 1.10% 14.00% 5.00% 1.69% Dividend Payout 14.00% 43.00% 29.00% 33.00% 5.43% 16.18% 4.63% 24.37% EPS 2.120 0.790 0.449 0.066 0.070 12.49% 9.53% 5.95% ROE 16.59% 8.34% 19.22% 7.04% -1.39% 7.81% 3.12% 9.99% P/E 6.79 4.98 6.18 17.30 4.50 11.00 25.58 14.31 ROA 1.30 0.43 1.10 0.24 -0.65 0.21 1.27 4.20 Price/cash 7.02 8.37 5.21 11.08 25.49 2.60 0.89 7.13 Source (Reuters Analysis, Financial Times, Athex) Remarks: ETE: Strong capital base and 50% of income from non Greek sources (e.g. Turkey) ALPHA: Conservative asset mix and most loans from non Greek/Cypriot mortgages BOCY: Strong exposure to Russia HB: P/B 0.78 times making it undervalued by almost 25%, possible merger talks MIG: Conservative asset mix and over 25% of revenues is outside Greece 16
  17. 17. Fixed Income • Large investment institutions (UBS, HSBC, CITI) are neutral for bonds in 2010 • Spreads declined substantially in 2009 • 2010 valuations expected to be better after the second half of the year • Corporate fundamentals expected to improve over the next few quarters • Improvements are usually followed by improved credit rating trends • Inflation rates and Interest rates are expected to soar in 2010 to catch up with expected economic recovery • Corporate bonds preferred over government bonds in 2010 (higher yields) → Given the expected economic cycle, it favors equities 17
  18. 18. Fixed Income Greece & Cyprus The new 5 year bonds issued by the Greek government Demand €20bln = 4 x €5bln Supply → Greek fiscal debt worries forced the bond to carry record high interest rate spreads → The premium demanded to hold 10Y Greek government bonds is over 400 basis points over the German Bunds (Euro zone benchmark bonds) → Speculators can borrow at 1% from ECB and lend to Greece for 7% (sovereign bonds) → Greek government has to refinance €54bln in 2010 → If it fails, Moody’s would downgrade Greek Debt below A grade → Greek banks could not benefit from ECB refinancing schemes → Chain reaction that could crash the market further A move within the fixed income markets of Cyprus or Greece would be advised only after better answers are available regarding convincing solutions to the Greek sovereign debt within the next few months 18
  19. 19. Bonds List: Cyprus & Greek Financials Bonds List Cyprus & Greece Annual Fixed / Issuer ISIN Cur Start Payday Floating CPN Maturity Call. Offer YTM Dur Denom Market S&P Moody's GREECE ALPHA CREDIT GROUP BV XS0288206153 EUR 23/02/2007 23-Feb Floating 0.92 23/02/2010 N 99.85 2.67 0.09 50,000 Germany BBB A2 ALPHA CREDIT GROUP BV XS0222205600 EUR 21/06/2005 21-Mar Floating 0.96 21/06/2010 N 99.29 2.68 0.42 50,000 Germany BBB A2 ALPHA CREDIT GROUP BV XS0229291603 EUR 20/09/2005 20-Mar Floating 0.96 20/09/2010 N 98.85 2.68 0.67 50,000 Germany BBB A2 ALPHA CREDIT GROUP BV XS0290074466 EUR 07/03/2007 7-Mar Floating 0.94 03/07/2011 N 97.47 3.18 1.12 50,000 Germany BBB A2 ALPHA CREDIT GROUP BV XS0432214343 EUR 09/06/2009 9-Jun 4.63 06/09/2011 N 100.49 4.24 1.34 50,000 Germany BBB A2 ALPHA CREDIT GROUP BV XS0269115910 EUR 27/09/2006 all term Floating 0.96 27/09/2011 N 96.29 3.18 50,000 Germany BBB A2 ALPHA CREDIT GROUP BV XS0282533206 EUR 17/01/2007 17-Jan Floating 0.93 17/01/2012 N 94.66 3.68 1.98 50,000 Germany BBB A2 ALPHA CREDIT GROUP BV XS0451674617 EUR 17/09/2009 17-Sep 3.88 17/09/2012 N 96.00 5.52 2.54 50,000 Germany BBB A2 COCA COLA HBC FINANCE BV XS0405567883 EUR 17/12/2008 15-Jan 7.88 15/01/2014 N 117.65 3.10 3.60 50,000 Germany A A3 EFG HELLAS PLC XS0294698492 EUR 12/04/2007 all term Floating 0.80 12/04/2010 N 99.58 2.68 50,000 Germany BBB A2 EFG HELLAS PLC XS0451430150 EUR 14/09/2009 14-Mar Floating 1.96 15/03/2011 N 98.60 3.18 1.14 50,000 Germany BBB A2 EFG HELLAS PLC XS0429895500 EUR 26/05/2009 26-May 4.25 26/05/2011 N 100.06 4.19 1.31 50,000 Germany BBB A2 EFG HELLAS PLC XS0443680052 EUR 11/08/2009 11-Feb 4.38 11/02/2013 N 97.23 5.38 2.87 50,000 Germany BBB A2 EFG HELLAS PLC XS0284635702 EUR 05/02/2007 7-Feb Floating 0.92 05/02/2014 N 89.39 3.68 3.96 50,000 Germany BBB A2 FAGE DAIRY INDUSTRIES SA XS0210695150 EUR 21/01/2005 15-Jan 7.50 15/01/2015 N 94.00 9.02 4.23 5,000 Germany B- B3 PIRAEUS GROUP FINANCE XS0293447792 EUR 29/03/2007 29-Mar Floating 0.91 29/03/2010 N 100.40 3.44 0.19 50,000 Germany BBB A2 PIRAEUS GROUP FINANCE XS0433067666 EUR 15/06/2009 15-Jun 4.50 15/06/2011 N 100.78 5.27 1.36 50,000 Germany BBB A2 HELLENIC REPUBLIC GR0110019214 EUR 01/02/2008 20-Mar 3.80 20/03/2011 N 99.67 6.03 1.13 1,000 Germany BBB+ A2 HELLENIC REPUBLIC GR0114022479 EUR 28/01/2009 20-Aug 5.50 20/08/2014 N 88.87 6.43 4.00 1,000 Germany BBB+ A2 HELLENIC REPUBLIC GR0124031650 EUR 11/03/2009 19-Jul 6.00 19/07/2019 N 76.11 6.39 7.19 1,000 Germany BBB+ A2 HELLENIC REPUBLIC GR0133004177 EUR 10/11/2009 20-Mar 5.30 20/03/2026 N 99.68 2.68 10.86 1,000 Germany BBB+ A2 HELLENIC REPUBLIC GR0138002689 EUR 06/02/2007 20-Sep 4.60 20/09/2040 N 100.21 4.32 14.91 1,000 Germany BBB+ A2 GREECE VARIABLE NOTES ALPHA GROUP JERSEY LTD DE000A0DX3M2 EUR 18/02/2005 Feb Fixed 6.00 VAR 18/02/2015 54.00 1,000 Lux B+ Baa1 EFG HELLAS FUNDING LTD XS0232848399 EUR all term 4.57 VAR 50.00 7.55 B+ A3 EFG HELLAS FUNDING LTD XS0234821345 EUR 09/11/2005 Nov Fixed 6.00 VAR 71.00 8.57 1,000 B+ A3 NBOG FUNDING LTD XS0272106351 GBP 08/11/2006 Nov Fixed 6.29 VAR 72.00 5.64 1,000 Lux BB- A2 CYPRUS BANK OF CYPRUS LTD XS0307782945 EUR 28/06/2007 all term Floating 0.91 28/06/2010 99.77 1.46 50,000 Lux A- A2 BANK OF CYPRUS LTD XS0251356282 EUR 04/05/2006 all term Floating 1.32 04/05/2016 90.00 3.01 50,000 Lux A3 CYPRUS GOVERNMENT BOND XS0432083227 EUR 3.75 03/06/2013 101.75 3.19 A+ Aa3 MARFIN POPULAR BANK PLC XS0453035229 EUR 4.38 21/09/2012 99.00 4.77 A3 REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS XS0143546207 EUR 5.50 27/02/2012 106.38 2.36 A+ Aa3 REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS XS0196506694 EUR Jul 4.38 15/07/2014 104.50 3.28 3.12 1,000 Germany A+ Hellenic Bank Ltd - Capital Securities HBCS EUR 6.450% 18/04/2018 Hellenic Bank Ltd - Bonds 2011 HBDE EUR 6.000% 28/04/2011 Hellenic Bank Ltd - Bonds 2016 HBDF EUR 1.550% 01/07/2016 Hellenic Bank Ltd - 2019 EUR Variable 7.500% 11/03/2019 Bank of Cyprus Conv. Bonds 2013/18 BCCB EUR 2.322% 30/06/2018 Source (Athex, Intellistock, Credit Suisse, Rotschild) 19
  20. 20. Currencies (FX) • Global economy recovering at a faster pace than anticipated • U.S. growth is expected to outperform other major economies, especially EU • In case of a rebound failure due to fiscal issues in EU risk aversion will prevail • Continuous low interest rates to push commodity prices even higher • Commodities (e.g. Gold) have positive correlation to the peaks and troughs of USD → USD tends to rally when risk aversion rises → US has low interest rates = carry trade currency of choice → USD is expected to perform positively in 2010 either way Recommended Strategy: Long USD/EUR 1.24 - 1.28 (1st of Feb = 1.3884) Short EUR/USD Source: Morgan Stanley, CITI, UBS, HSBC, RBS 20
  21. 21. FX Forecasts 2010 FX Forecasts 2010 (Reuters) EUR GBP USD CHF 21
  22. 22. Real Estate - Cyprus Real Estate in Cyprus - Statistical Data Sales Documents (12month) Number of foreign buyers & sellers 2008 2009 Change% Nicosia 3,256 2,235 -31 Date Buyers Sellers Limassol 3,240 2,007 -38 Jan.08 98 103 Larnaca 2,887 1,469 -49 Feb 126 116 Famagusta 1,995 881 -56 Mar 122 97 Paphos 3,289 1,578 -52 Apr 143 135 Total 14,667 8,170 -44 May 142 171 Jun 117 188 Number of properties sold to Non-Cypriots Jul 118 202 2008 2009 Change% Aug 72 104 Nicosia 283 219 -22.6 Sep 89 134 Limassol 730 415 -43.2 Oct 76 149 Larnaca 1,122 314 -72 Nov 54 111 Famagusta 919 249 -72.9 Dec 57 113 Paphos 1,498 379 -74.7 Jan.09 22 55 Total Saless 4,552 1,765 -61.2 Feb 53 77 Mar 34 102 Total Volume of Property Sales (€ bn) Apr 42 71 2002 1.2 May 145 77 2003 1.6 Jun 87 131 2004 1.9 Jul 45 121 2005 1.9 Aug 25 67 2006 3 Sep 42 98 2007 5.2 Oct 48 98 2008 3.5 Nov N/A 47 2009 1.7 Total 1,757 2,567 Source: CySTAT, Stockwatch 22
  23. 23. Real Estate – Eastern Europe SWOT ANALYSIS BULGARIA ROMANIA Strenghts Currency Pegged to EURO Size, Natural Resources Weaknesses Corruption Weak Currency Opportunities Industry: Logistics and Tourism Industry: Agriculture Prolonged recession and IMF Threats Prolonged recession funding that slows the economic growth 23
  24. 24. Real Estate – Eastern Europe Current Situation: Bulgaria: • Heavy reliance on real estate and tourism has created a gap in the market between supply of real estate and occupancy rates Romania: • Overall market of real estate has experienced a substantial fall except in premium real estate areas where the market is recuperating Real Estate Opportunities: Bulgaria: • Fundamental need for developing and enhancing tourist products and infrastructure Romania: • Need for the development of industrial buildings • Need for residential developments to cater low to middle income earning population Source: Colliers International, Balkan Insight, Eurostat 24
  25. 25. Harvest Stargate Fund Investment Policy Statement Summary Investment Goal: • Above average returns Return Objective: • Absolute returns of 8% - 10% annually • Capital appreciation Risk Objective: • Low volatility • Diversify across asset classes and geographically Asset Allocation: 30% Real Estate 30% Equities 30% Structured Products – Bonds 10% Cash and Cash Equivalents Current State: Maximum prudency and retain as much as possible in cash and its equivalents 25
  26. 26. Harvest One Percent Fund Investment Policy Statement Summary Investment Goal: • Above average returns Return Objective: • Absolute returns of 1% per month • Outperform selected benchmarks Risk Objective: • Lower volatility than selected indices (benchmarks) • Diversify across asset classes • Careful stock picking Asset Allocation: 70% FTSEB Index components and Equities 15% Bonds and Alternative Investments 10% Cash and Cash Equivalents Current State: Maximum prudency and retain as much as possible in cash and its equivalents 26
  27. 27. Harvest One Percent Fund - Benchmark FTSE/ATHEX-CSE Banking Index (FTSEB) % By % Stock Closing Price % Market Market Participation Code (01/02/2010) %Change Weight Capitalization Cap in Index ALPHA 6.99 -0.85 100 3,734,544,839.52 15.65% 12.99% ATE 1.74 1.75 20 295,174,888.74 1.24% 2.60% BOCY 4.52 -1.74 100 2,703,847,465.84 11.33% 12.99% CPB 2.13 0.95 100 1,794,251,167.20 7.52% 12.99% ETE 15.7 -1.94 100 9,530,243,578.80 39.94% 12.99% EUROB 6.47 3.52 75 2,601,413,632.65 10.90% 9.74% HB 1.23 1.65 75 378,832,394.91 1.59% 9.74% TGEN 0.68 -1.45 50 120,699,547.46 0.51% 6.49% TPEIR 6.26 0.97 100 2,105,065,968.94 8.82% 12.99% TT 4.35 - 0 50 595,956,194.58 2.50% 6.49% Source: ATHEX ASE CSE FTSEB 2009 % Change % Change % Change Jun -4.58% -16.47% -4.22% Jul 6.93% 11.13% 14.10% Aug 4.59% 3.49% 11.17% Sept 7.83% 12.78% 11.37% Oct 1.26% 5.28% 3.20% Nov -16.63% -17.52% -22.42% Dec -2.06% 3.63% -5.23% -2.66% 2.32% 7.97% Source: Naftemporiki Source: Intellistock 27
  28. 28. Disclaimer • This report has been prepared by the asset management team of Harvest Financial Services Ltd (Investment Firm License No. 021/03), regulated by Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of the Cyprus Stock Exchange and the Athens Stock Exchange. • The information in this report is given in good faith and it has been obtained from published information and other sources believed to be credible and reliable at the time of preparation. However, Harvest Financial Services Ltd does not guarantee its accuracy as it may be condensed, summarized or incomplete. The information mentioned herein are subject to change without notice as market conditions change consistently. Securities mentioned in this publication are subject to investment risks, including the possibility of losses. • The material provided herein is for informational and analysis purposes only. It has been prepared solely with the intention that it will be for the use of selected recipients only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities relating to any of the products referenced herein, notwithstanding that any such securities may be currently being offered to others. • None of the authors, associates or any person involved in the preparation of this publication is under any obligation if any of them become aware of a change or inaccuracy. Also neither of them accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for the accuracy or completeness of this publication and none of them makes representation or warranty in relation thereto. Moreover, the authors, associates and every person involved in the preparation of this publication expressly disclaim all liability from any loss or damage of whatsoever kind which may arise from any persons acting on any statements contained in this publication. • This presentation does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. It is the responsibility of any person or persons in possession of this material to inform themselves of and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction. Prospective investors should inform themselves and take appropriate advice as to any applicable legal requirements and any applicable taxation and exchange control regulations in the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile which might be relevant to the subscription, purchase, holding, exchange, redemption or disposal of any investments. • Past performance is not a guide to future performance and the value of investments and the income derived from those investments can go down as well as up. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of principal may occur. Harvest Financial Services Ltd makes no warranty or representation that the security and or recommendation made are appropriate for all recipients and investors. • Opinions expressed are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. No part of this material may be i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form, by any means; or ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of Harvest Financial Services Ltd. 2010 Harvest Financial Services Ltd 28

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