BlackSwanTradingTM 31mar2014

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BlackSwanTradingTM our StockTakers Risk Price portfolios are not White Swans

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BlackSwanTradingTM 31mar2014

  1. 1. “ Page 1 of 7 April 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. Defend Your Capital, BlackSwanTradingTM Update–31 March 2014 Equities trading above our benchmark Risk Price (SF) are those liked by investors, as two of three continue to price rise due to investors’ preference. These equities we call “likeables.” They are revealed by their rise above Risk Price, our metric that investors must know to defend their capital1 . Cash must be engaged in the economy in business ideas with valiant balance sheets or it loses value. That is simple fact. For small savings it is needful but arbitrary you feed at the low price end of "likeables" we find in balance sheets. Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better than cash. Risk Aversion, Capital Safety and Liquidity in ‘likeables’ we prove works for you. This past year US markets have rebounded particularly well fed on Quantitative Eating courtesy of the Federal Reserve. They feed fowl for fois gras like that! The markets are always expectantly fed. This quarter market mavens got ‘surprised’ again. Consumers are demanding, firms are not reversing their balance sheets. But the pundits whose business model is paid by the word wrote lots. Techs, banks and pharma all got pink slips at NASDAQ. We at StockTakers sail on in a sea of calm however, with our “likeables” selection of techs, banks and pharma equities. In open handed display of our methods from then currently identified “likeables” we partitioned from NYSE. Continuing our TaxCharityTM we released to a select group the Solo50KTM portfolio. The Solo ROTH/IRA 401(k) is result of US tax law amendments2 in 2001 to encourage saving by the self-employed especially during years when the sun has shone and the hay is high. In 2013 your total Solo contributions may not exceed $51,000, or if you are age 50 or older, $56,500 to include catch-up contribution. Many may recall the recently famous Black Swan crying fowl on fund managers last year. We sent her a Tweet last 15 April to calm her down to our methods. We introduced her to our portfolio list we called the Solo50KTM we had prior devised to help self employed heroines. We can call it the BlackSwanTradingTM or maybe a more topical name of recent days BloodySlowTradingTM suits. Hans Goetze @HansGoetze Apr 15 @RealMilaKunis Solo50Kportfolio:AIZ,AVY,BSX,CMA,DOW,GT,HCBK,LLTC,LNC,NBR,NYT,NYX,OR CL,SYY,TE,TEX,TSN,UNM,WM=123.15%@19wks Note Solo50KTM had already made a 23.15% gain in the prior 4.5 months. So, we will reset it as BSTTM for Ms. Kunis If Ms. Kunis was not just clawing air time dollars from her followers but allocated BSTTM it has since posted 42.44% gain, while NYSE gained 11.83% over the interval. RAW PERFORMANCE, with NO CHANGES and disregarding stoploss settings it made that 42.44% gain over the past 50 weeks. With risk averse stoploss settings for risk aversion (instead of collaring options we prefer) BSTTM still made a nice 40.70% in 50 weeks. We like that kind of capital safety, from very slow trading. Buy wait, there is more to Solo50KTM "there is risk in what you do not or cannot know." Thomas Tooke, 1844 "for the value of money is also perishable." Jean-Baptiste Say , 1803
  2. 2. “ Page 2 of 7 April 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. Defend Your Capital, BlackSwanTradingTM Update–31 March 2014 The original Solo50KTM had been prior sent to the attention of a public service endowment frantic to have a new crew of highly regarded hedge fund managers rebuild its wealth which under previous management had declined further 18% since the 2009 plunge. The public service aims of that foundation were being compromised. They may wish they had known of our work sooner. Remember, when sending that list to Kunis, the Solo50KTM had already made a 23.15% gain in 4.5 months prior. That rate had near completely restored the endowment fund wealth. The IRR of that Solo50KTM portfolio is now 68.08% at 16 months, for net yield 49.88% gained after fees, a 33.06% p.a. rate of net return. The endowment could have rebuilt its treasury in 5 months allowing for fees. That rate was high. Our usual 26% IRR we reasonably expect for net 20.38% gain. The best of the select hedge funds gave a net result of 19.2% and second best 8%, but that is 14.44% and 5.96% per annum. Okay, those are nice returns, but unremarkably the endowment will get rebuilt at some time in the next decade with those rates averaged. There is no basis to think they will continue at such rates either. It was an unusual year of Quantitative Eating. US markets gained 29.65%, annual 21.56% per annum IRR, in these 16 months since Solo50KTM . That is not likely to be repeated if even Draghi starts QE in EU as Yellen slows tapering and rates. There is no indication inflation will remain so low or market returns so high. What proof does convention offer? You are right that is an oxymoron. Convention is flat-landers in a global reality. Fund managers are just used equities traders who never kick the tires or check the fluids, because they do not know more than pretense. Capital Appreciation Raiders, CAR sellers, of financial products for their unworthy fee-taking but none is ever left for you. Do not give those Artful Dodgers your wallet. Financial industry advisors are schooled in financial products to exploit small investor savings for their taking fees. They are not changing their tools or sharpening those they have. They took the “regular courses” required by a self-regulated industry driven only their creative sales fiction. Seemingly, certification requires intensive study in the key tools of Rhetoric - Adumbration, Subterfuge, Mystification and Derogation. Humm, that sounds familiar. “I only took the regular courses,” sighed the Mock Turtle. “What was that?” inquired Alice. “Reeling and Writhing, of course, to begin with, and then the different branches of Arithmetic – Ambition, Distraction, Uglification, and Derision.”
  3. 3. “ Page 3 of 7 April 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. Defend Your Capital, BlackSwanTradingTM Update–31 March 2014 The larger your “likeables” portfolio will tend to average 26% per annum Internal Rate of Return as proven through the two recessions of these past 13 years. See our articles StockTakers’ 2012Q1 bite on DJI3 . and The Counter Culture: Case for a Can Opener4 . Our work stands on giants, insights of three very different laureates, and more, evidence in our “likeables” behaviour is proof. That proven behaviour fund managers like CPPIB5 can ignore as politicians demand you must trust to invest even double-up in their proven failure. There is proof Wall Street6 does not understand our “likeables” behaviour as hedge funds fail to deliver7 . On gossip hem and haw the markets bounced and yawed with all the boats. Quantitative Eating treacle-down capitalizes US markets, not consumers ‘getting-on-with-their-lives’ demand that drives the real economy. Extending our proprietary information as charity to suit small investors’ needs in our BookBuilderTM invests in your children’s education, TaxCharityTM allows you to invest in your retirement and income needs, because we can, so you can. Our public portfolios show better using our new theory of the firm. We seek accredited investors to advance what we have proven. We are able to prove our methods in such real time portfolios. Portfolios Update List – 31 March 2014 Solo 50K on NYSE "likeables" Firms Market Price Symbol SF (Risk Price) Stop/Loss Buy-ins 01December 2012 Assurant Inc 57.4 AIZ:US $37 $59 Avery Dennison Corp 42.83 AVY:US $34 $48 Boston Scientific Corp 12.08 BSX:US $7 $11 Comerica Inc 40.57 CMA:US $32 $47 Dow Chemical Company 64.96 DOW:US $31 $45 Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company 50.67 GT:US $18 $23 Hudson City Bancorp Inc $topLoss 23sep13$9 9.83 HCBK:US $8 $9 Linear Technology Corp ($topLoss sold 05apr13) 48.69 LLTC $37 $44 Lincoln National Corp 50.67 LNC:US $27 $46 Nabors Industries Ltd ($topLoss sold 03apr13) 24.65 NBR:US $17 $21 New York Times Company ($topLoss sold 05aprl13) 17.12 NYT $8 $14 NYSE Euronext (Price shown as at ICE Takeover) 45.26 ICE/NYX $27 $39 Oracle Corp. ($topLoss sold 22mar13) 40.91 ORCL:US $34 $36 Sysco Corp 36.13 SYY:US $4 $33 Teco Energy Inc (N* lagged payables sold 05apr13) 17.15 TE:US $30 $16 Terex Corp ($topLoss sold 15apr13) 44.3 TEX:US $27 $37 Tyson Foods Inc CL A 44.01 TSN:US $22 $37 Unum Group 35.31 UNM:US $22 $33 Waste Management Inc 42.07 WM:US $34 $39 Buy-ins 30Apr2013 Campbell Soup ($topLoss sold 29aug13) CPB $36 $42
  4. 4. “ Page 4 of 7 April 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. Defend Your Capital, BlackSwanTradingTM Update–31 March 2014 JDS Uniphase Corp ($topLoss sold 15aug13) JDSU:US $14 $13 MBIA Inc 13.99 MBI:US $8 $13 Microchip Technology Incorporated 47.76 MCHP:US $34 $44 Micron Technology Inc 23.66 MU:US $11 $20 Sealed Air Corp 32.87 SEE:US $22 $29 Buy-ins 31Aug2013 Sapient Corp 17.06 SAPE:US $13 $16 Ciena Corp 22.74 CIEN:US $19 $21 First Horizon National Corp 12.34 FHN:US $9 $12 Genworth Financial Inc 17.73 GNW:US $12 $16 Buy-ins 15Nov2013 Verizon Communications Inc 47.57 VZ $45 $45 Solo 50K 2012 Portfolio Value (StopLoss tended - incl. Dividends) 31 March 2014 / 30 November 2012 72300.00 / 43465.00 Gain 16.0 months 66.34% Current Cash (after 15 Nov buy) 464.00 Net Cash on StopLoss sales *100 shares 00.00 Current Cash pending Buy-ins *100 shares 464.00 Solo 50K 2012 Portfolio Value (StopLoss tended - incl. Dividends) 31 March 2014 / 30 November 2012 72300.00 / 43465.00 Gain 16.0 months 66.34% Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility as in case of such irrational market mavens’ pressures of late January and early February. Irrationally volatile swing occurred as the stock prices sharply rebounded without regard for reason. New highs were recorded in the next week showing a 6% swing in days. Capital was defended as intended but you must rebuild the portfolio with successive replacement buy-ins as shown above. If you did not pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but can carry-on, In the year long haul all rebounded above their Risk Price and $topLoss in dominant positive markets. However in the September 2013 new portfolio below one sees clear example of our 2 of 3 tendency at play in a mixed market that was marginally negative in the quarter. BSTTM Solo 50KTM 2012 Portfolio Value (incl. Dividends) 31 March 2014 / 30 November 2012 73055.00 / 43465.00 Gain 16.0 months 68.08% (Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings) Accenture PLC CL A 79.72 ACN:US $61 $79 BB&T Corp 40.17 BBT:US $29 $37 Ball Corp 54.81 BLL:US $35 $50 Exelon Corporation 33.56 EXC:US $31 $29 Hormel Foods Corporation 49.27 HRL:US $32 $45 Invesco Limited 37.00 IVZ:US $22 $34 USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 limit 51000.00 Buy-ins 15sepl2013 *100 shares each Archer Daniels Midland Co 43.39 ADM:US $35 $40 AGCO Corp ($topLoss sold 29oct13) AGCO $48 $48 AMN Healthcare Services Incorporated 13.74 AHS:US $10 $13
  5. 5. “ Page 5 of 7 April 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. Defend Your Capital, BlackSwanTradingTM Update–31 March 2014 Booz Allen Hamilton Incorporated 22.00 BAH:US $16 $20 Best Buy Co. Inc. ($topLoss sold 16jan14) 33.00 BBY $33 $20 CalMaine Foods Inc 62.78 CALM $42 $54 Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. 67.63 CHKP:US $55 $61 Facebook Incorporated 60.24 FB:US $52 $54 Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. $topLoss sold 03dec13 KKD:US $11 $15 US Airways Group Incorporated 36.60 LCC:US $12 $19 Laredo Petroleum Holdings Inc. ($topLoss sold 7nov13) LPI:US $24 $20 Lousinana-Pacific Corporation ($topLoss sold 5nov13) LPX:US $13 $15 Pandora Media Incorporated 30.32 P:US $30 $27 QUALCOMM Inc. 78.86 QCOM:US $66 $73 UBS AG ($topLoss sold 4nov13) UBS:US $15 $19 Buy-ins *100 shares 15Nov2013 ABB Ltd. ADS 25.79 ABB:US $23 $23 Lenovo Group Limited ADR . ($topLoss sold 22feb14) 22.00 LNVGY:US $23 $19 Morgan Hotel Group Company 8.04 MHGC:US $6 $7 Buy-ins *100 shares 31Dec2013 Genworth Financial Inc 17.73 GNW:US $12 $16 Radian Group Incorporated 15.03 RDN:US $7 $14 Buy-ins *100 shares 31Mar14 Cloud Peak Energy Incorporated 21.14 CLD:US $19 $18 Exelon Corporation 33.56 EXC:US $31 $29 Hormel Foods Corporation 49.27 HRL:US $32 $45 USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value 31 March (including dividends) / 15 September 2013 559504.00 / 51000.00 Gain 6.5 months 16.10% 2013 Tax Shelter Cash Reserved* 506.00 USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value (including dividends and cash) 31March 2014/15 Sep 2013 559504.00 / 51000.00 Gain 6.5 months 16.10% USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 limit 51000.00 Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility as in case of such irrational market mavens’ pressures of late January and early February (and again more recently). Irrationally volatile swing occurred as the stock prices sharply rebounded without regard for reason. New highs were recorded in the next week showing a 6% swing in days. Capital was defended as intended but you must rebuild the portfolio with successive replacement buy-ins as shown above. If you did not pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but can carry-on, most rebounded above their Risk Price and $topLoss, some are clearly ‘laggards’ and still falling. However one sees here example of our 2 of 3 tendency at play in a mixed market that was marginally negative in the quarter, but BSTTM gained 13.74%. BSTTM ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value (including dividends and cash) 31March 2014/15 Sep 2013 58299.00 / 51000.00 Gain 6.5 months 13.74% NOTE no stoploss settings used in BSTTM examples
  6. 6. “ Page 6 of 7 April 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. Defend Your Capital, BlackSwanTradingTM Update–31 March 2014 BSTTM 2013 Tax Shelter Cash Reserved* 82.00 BSTTM ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value (including dividends and cash) 31March 2014/15 Sep 2013 58299.00 / 51000.00 Gain 6.5 months 13.74% Engage in “likeables” save your own bacon. The conventional investment industry cannot prove any of their assumptions underlying their methods. As we have shown, luck is all that they trade in, 1.03 to 1 is just a coin-toss, not adding value. A tautology is just repetition until it appears to be logical. Lies told often enough are expedient and can even become politically correct. Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better than cash. We like Capital Safety and Liquidity because we have proven our risk aversion works, consistently obtaining both low risk and AlphaSmartTM high gain. Our Risk Price is what investors must know to defend their capital. Market behaviour prefers the “likeables” trading above Risk Price and bids up their price. Our method is proven. Because we can, you can8 . In our Modal Geometry9 theory of the firm we make only two assumptions, clearly as follows: 1. there is a balance sheet of the firm (that the rule of law governs its information is possibly weak assumption but at an accuracy to at least the modest degree accountants are prepared to be responsible for); and, 2. the firm will vigorously negotiate, “what it owns” (in order to stay in business “what is owed to it” with “what it owes” and vice versa, to make the best of what it has, that is in its trading connections). The Modal Geometry theory of the firm has unfolded by rigourous observation of corporate ledgers relation to balance sheets as business process10 adds value. That is aided with logic, epistemology, and some powerful mathematics. You have proof in these TaxCharityTM portfolios performances. Our reasons for having any equity in our portfolios are clear, concise and consistent. “likeables” tendency demonstrates 2 of 3 “likeables” gaining for the long term. This we show proof positive, in our TaxCharityTM and BookBuilderTM portfolios continued gain. Know What You Have. Have What You Know. Our view is risk averse. Of course we require 2&20 fees for doing that. Mail us for our help. Hans Goetze, Architypes Inc. architypes@gmail.com and StockTakers Limited hg.stocktaker@gmail.com Head Office 76 Midridge Close SE Calgary, AB T2X 1G1 351 Chemin Boulanger Sutton, PQ J0E 2K0
  7. 7. “ Page 7 of 7 April 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. Defend Your Capital, BlackSwanTradingTM Update–31 March 2014 450 538-1270 1 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios 2 http://retireplan.about.com/od/401kplans/a/Solo-401-K-Contribution-Limits-2013.htm 3 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stock-takers-2012-q1-bite-on-dji 4 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-case-for-the-can-opener-edufeb12 5 http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/10/pi-cppib-2nd-quarter/ 6 http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/15/bn-cpwr-compuware-corporation/ 7 https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi 8 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios 9 “The Modal Geometry of the Firm and the Balance Sheet Worth of the Trading Connections”, 2006, unpublished but available from the author. 10 http://riskwerk.com/2014/03/15/pi-the-process/

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