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Lecture 5: Hazard Analysis


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Lecture 5: Hazard Analysis
Dr. Danang Sri Hadmoko (UGM)
2019 ProSPER.Net Young Researchers' School
5 March 2019

Published in: Environment
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Lecture 5: Hazard Analysis

  1. 1. HAZARDS ANALYSIS Natural Hazards Study Dr. Danang Sri Hadmoko ProSPER.Net Young Researchers’ School “Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation” 3-10 March 2019
  2. 2. • Understanding the importance of natural hazard study • The concepts of hazard, hazard event, secondary hazards, multiple hazards and disaster • Classify and describe types of hazards, explain hazard characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, intensity and rate of onset and their importance • Conduct hazard identification, hazard assessment and hazard mapping and explain their functional value The Objective of this Session
  3. 3. Understanding the importance of natural hazard study
  4. 4. INDONESIA: THE WORLD’S BIGGEST ARCHIPELAGIC COUNTRY 250 million 17,508 islands 82.505 Villages 99,093 km coastlines 34 Provinces 1158 Local languages
  5. 5. 95° E 105° E 115° E 125° E 135° E 0° N 5° N 0° N 5° N Océan Indien Océan Pacifique Mer de Chine Méridionale Plaque INDO-AUSTRALIENNE Plaque CAROLINE Plaque EURASIATIQUE 6.5 cm/an Java INDONESIA: JUNCTION OF 3 ACTIVE PLATE TECTONICS
  6. 6. Top 10 countries/territories in terms of absolute losses (billion US$) 1998-2017
  7. 7. Number of disasters by major category per year 1998-2017 UNISDR, 2018 In terms of occurrences, climate-related disasters dominate the picture over the past 20 years, accounting for 91% of all 7,255 recorded events between 1998 and 2017
  8. 8. Numbers of disasters per type 1998-2017 UNISDR, 2018
  9. 9. The concepts/ terminology of hazard, hazard event, secondary hazards, multiple hazards and disaster
  10. 10. Hazards • Hazards can include latent conditions that may represent future threats. They can be natural in origin (geological, hydro-meteorological and biological) and/or induced by human processes (environmental degradation and technological hazards). • Hazards can be single, sequential or combined in their origin and effects. • Each hazard is characterized by its location, intensity, magnitude, area of extent and probability.
  11. 11. Hazard is an event or occurrence that has the potential for causing injuries to life and damaging property and the environment. A natural hazard refers to the probability of occurrence in a specific time period and geographic area of a potentially damaging phenomenon. There is a potential for the occurrence of a disaster event Visualizing a Hazard
  12. 12. Elements at Risk • People - death, injury, disease and stress • Human activity – economic, educational etc. • Property - property damage, economic loss of • Environment - loss fauna and flora, pollution, loss of amenities. A Hazard is a threat. A future source of danger. It has the potential to cause harm to (element at risk): Persons, buildings, crops or other such like societal components exposed to known hazard, which are likely to be adversely affected by the impact of the hazard.
  13. 13. HAZARD Potential Damage Elements at Risk Slopes of hills Sea & Sea-coast Low-lying Areas River/Stream Banks Natural Features Unsecured personal assets Livelihood tools / Equipment Public Infrastructure Agri. & Horticultural crops Weak Buildings Huts & Semi-permanent Houses People & Live-stock Societal Elements Element at Risk
  14. 14. Visualizing Disaster An event, either man‐made or natural, sudden or progressive, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses
  15. 15. Natural Disaster vs Natural Phenomenon • A natural disaster is the consequence of the combination of a natural hazard (a physical event e.g. volcanic eruption, earthquake, landslide) and human activities. • A natural phenomena is the occurring of such kind of natural processes within given magnitude which is not harmful to human activities
  16. 16. A cyclone that surges over the ocean or an uninhabited island does not result in a disaster. However, it would be a disaster if it hit the populated coast and caused extensive loss of lives and property. Natural Disaster vs Natural Phenomenon NASA
  17. 17. Natural Phenomenon VS Natural Disaster Natural phenomenon Disaster
  18. 18. Dome’s photo: January 26, 2014 Imagery source: GeoEye-1
  19. 19. Ingredients of Risks = H x V C
  20. 20. Classify and describe types of hazards, explain hazard characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, intensity and rate of onset and their importance
  21. 21. Type of Hazards 1. Natural hazards such as earthquakes or floods arise from purely natural processes in the environment. 2. Quasi-natural hazards such as smog or desertification arise through the interaction of natural processes and human activities. 3. Technological (or man-made) hazards such as the toxicity of pesticides to fauna, accidental release of chemicals or radiation from a nuclear plant. These arise directly as a result of human activities.
  22. 22. Type of Hazards 1. Endogenous vs Exogenous Hazards 2. Primary vs Secondary Hazards 3. Single vs Multiple Hazards vs Collateral Hazards 4. Natural Hazards vs Natural Hazard induced by humans vs Technological Hazards
  23. 23. Type of Hazards Endogenous Hazards Earthquake Volcanic Eruption Flood Tsunami Landslides Forest Fire Climate Change Drought Exogenous Hazards Seismically controlled Climatically Controlled
  25. 25. 8 Octobre 2007 23 Octobre 2007 26 Octobre 2007 29 Octobre 2007 Example of Hazards: Evolution of water color at Kelud Lake in 2007 (photos DVGHM)
  26. 26. Lava Dome, Anak Kelut, December 2007 Effusive Eruption: Example of Disaster Photo DVGHM
  27. 27. SECONDARY HAZARD: LAHAR Anis Efizudin,, 9 Desember 2010 Lahar is Javanese term to explain a rapidly flowing, high-concentration, poorly sorted sediment-laden mixtures of rock debris and water from a volcano.
  28. 28. - Lahars as main secondary hazard of Volcanic Eruption Movie by Lavigne
  29. 29. Boyong, Merapi, December 1994 Boyong, Merapi, Februari 1995 LAHARS
  30. 30. Lahar in Code River (29 November 2010) (Nearby Sardjito Hospital) Flood Plain Flood Plain
  31. 31. the impact of 2010 MERAPI ERUPTION in Code River “Yogyakarta City” Lahar Flood in December 2010
  32. 32. PLINIAN ERUPTION OF KRAKATOA (1883) Erupted on August 26–27, 1883
  33. 33. Segara Anak Lake Barujari cone Mount Rinjani (3726 m) Sector collapse CRISP, 2012 Sector collapse
  34. 34. • VEI = 7 (> 100 km3) • Eruption intensity = 12 • High dispersal index D >49,000 km2 • Ultraplinian eruption • Samalas volcano in Lombok is a solid source candidate for one the biggest volcanic eruption of the Holocene, AD 1257; • Greater magnitude than the nearby Tambora; • Drastic local effects in Indonesia: • Total destruction of the Pamatan Kingdom • in Lombok (this ancient city probably lies buried beneath tephra deposits); • No sovereign in Bali for 64 years since AD 1260 for an unknown reason. ULTRAPLINIAN ERUPTION OF SAMALAS (1257 AD)
  35. 35. • Large volume of aerosols into the atmosphere for at least two years (two dark lunar eclipses observed in Europe in May and November 1258) • Climate disturbance in the continental northern hemisphere in 1258: winter warming, widespread summer cooling (a “year without a summer » revealed by written sources and tree-ring data) => bad harvests that may have led to local disasters.  Global impacts of the AD 1257 ultraplinian Samalas eruption Archaeologists recently determined a date of AD 1258 for mass burial of thousands of medieval skeletons in London, which can thus be linked to the global impacts of the AD 1257 Samalas eruption.
  36. 36. Perturbation of Aerial Transportation Ex.: Galunggung, 1982 “Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem. All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them under control. I trust you are not in too much distress” Boeing 747 du vol 9 British Airways, 263 passagers After the four reactors were shut down, the aircraft continued its flight for 16 minutes, losing 7500 meters from its initial altitude of 11,500 meters.
  37. 37. Example: Earthquake as a primary hazard • Building collapse • Dam failure • Fire • Hazardous material spill • Interruption of power/ water supply/ communication/ transportation/ waste disposal • Landslide • Soil liquefaction • Tsunami (tidal wave) • Water pollution SecondaryHazards
  38. 38. Hazard identification, hazard assessment and hazard mapping
  39. 39. Natural Hazards Analysis The identification, study and monitoring of any hazard to determine its potential, origin, characteristics and behavior. Identification Mapping Assessment Monitoring Forecasting
  40. 40. Questions related to Hazards identification and mapping 1. What kind of hazards that potentially threatening the area you live in ? 2. Could this hazard affect the area you live in? 3. Is this hazard a significant threat there? 4. How often does it pose a threat? E.g. Once every 5 years? 10 years? 5. What is a close estimate of the population size that could be affected by this hazard event? Give a rating. Very high? High? Medium? Low? 6. What is the expected duration of the hazard? 7. What is the expected damage from the hazard event? Give a rating. Very high? High? Medium? Low? 8. What is the expected intensity of impact expected? Give a rating. Very high? High? Medium? Low? 9. How predictable is the threat? 10.Can the effect of the event be reduced?
  41. 41. Hazards Assessment / Zoning Hazard zoning – The subdivision of the area in zones that are characterized by the probability of occurrence of natural hazards of a particular size/magnitude, area, volume, within a given period of time. Hazard Assessment is the process of estimating, for defined areas, the probabilities of the occurrence of potentially-damaging phenomenon of given magnitude within a specified period of time. UNDRO
  42. 42. Hazards Assessment Spatial Probability/ Susceptibiity Temporal Probability
  43. 43. Hazards assessment approach 1. Qualitative hazards assessment 2. Semi-quantitative hazards assessment 3. Quantitative hazards assessment 1. Probabilistic approach 2. Deterministic approach / physical-based approach
  44. 44. Determining hazards: an example (HAZARDS) Spatial Probability Temporal Probability Landuse Soil Geology Slope Landslide event Landslide event Triggering factor Eartrthquake Rainfall (VULNERABILITY) Agriculture Road Houses Infrastructure Population Element at risk Qualitative Semi- Quantitative Probabilistic Deterministic METHODS Magnitudo Frequency HAZARDS Spatio-temporal Probability Potetntial damage and loss of elemet at risk Economic value of element at risk (loss) 0 1 0 1 Rupiah Total potential loss
  45. 45. Presenting Hazards Information: Example of Pegunungan Menoreh U
  46. 46. Landslide probability map ProSpatial probability of landslide = (V1*0,1297) + (V2*0,2396) + (V3*0,0916) + (V4*0,0855) + (V5*0,136) + (V6*0,0714) + (V7*0,0374) + (V8*0,1339) + (V9*0,0748) Histogram probabilitas kejadian Spatial Probability (Sumber: Hadmoko, 2009)
  47. 47. Example of Spatial Probability Map -> Landslide ?
  48. 48. 0 %10 %20 %25 %30 %40 %50 %60 %70 %75 %80 %90 %100 % Very High High medium low Landslide probability: Degree of Saturation: Deterministic Approach (Hydrodynamic approach)
  49. 49. Example of microzonation of tsunami hazards: Aceh
  50. 50. Run-up data: tsunami Aceh 51 m Lavigne,2005
  51. 51. Wave height measurement using laser system
  52. 52. Hazards monitoring and forecasting • Hazards are dynamic processes, they can be different from one year to another, therefore hazards map should be updated in order to adjust to the environmental dynamic/ change. • Series of phenomena have to be monitored in order to determine the pattern, therefore the future threat can be forecasted.
  53. 53. Terima Kasih