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Exercise on Hazard and Vulnerability Analysis

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Exercise on Hazard and Vulnerability Analysis
Dr. Dyah R. Hizbaron (UGM)
2019 ProSPER.Net Young Researchers' School
5 March 2019

Published in: Environment
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Exercise on Hazard and Vulnerability Analysis

  1. 1. Vulnerability Exercise
  2. 2. HOW TO MEASURE VULNERABILITY?
  3. 3. Measuring Vulnerability • Different types of vulnerability • Different level of scales • Different hazard types • Different hazard intensity Vulnerability Indices Vulnerability table Vulnerability curves Tools: Remote sensing Rapid monitoring Participatory approach Existing data base Expert opinion
  4. 4. Vulnerability Indices 0 1 Not Vulnerable Very Vulnerable (Lethal)
  5. 5. Vulnerability Index in a Curve • Fragility curve of building. • Social vulnerability curve of potential injuries or death • Economic vulnerability curve of potential losses in particular sector
  6. 6. Vulnerability Classes
  7. 7. Social Vulnerability Factors Sumber : DFID, 2010 PARAMETER MODAL PERIKEHIDUPAN PARAMETER PEMICU KERENTANAN Indicator 1. Demografi 2. Economic 3. Education 4. Health 5. Hazard 6. dll
  8. 8. Material Type Structur e Age Social Vulnerability Factors PARAMETER KERENTANAN BANGUNAN Indicator : 1. Jenis bangunan 2. Usia bangunan 3. Tipe bangunan 4. Jumlah hunian 5. Material bangunan 6. Kekuatan konstruksi 7. Struktur bangunan 8. Lokasi bangunan 9. Penggunaan bangunan 10. Jumlah lantai 11. Distribusi bahaya
  9. 9. Faktor Pengaruh Kerentanan Lingkungan Social Physical Environment PARAMETER KERENTANAN LINGKUNGAN: 1. Kondisi Sosial 2. Kondisi Fisik INDIKATOR KERENTANAN LINGKUNGAN: 1. Demografi 2. Ekonomi 3. Pendidikan 4. Kesehatan 5. Kualitas bangunan 6. Kualitas lingkungan 7. Distribusi bahaya 8. dll
  10. 10. Dr. Dyah Rahmawati Hizbaron, M.T, M.Sc Dr. Danang Sri Hadmoko, M.Sc Universitas Gadjah Mada Yogyakarta Case 1. Mapping Vulnerability for Kelud Volcano, Indonesia – Approach towards Disaster Resilience
  11. 11. RESEARCH RATIONALE GLOSSARY • HAZARD: • Any environmental problem that has possibility to impinge human existence. any environmental problem that has possibility to impinge human existence. • Primary event: Volcanic Eruption • Collateral event: Lahar flow • VULNERABILITY: • the degree of potential of losses and damage towards certain degree of hazard severity and it involves adverse reaction of social and natural system (Hizbaron, et al., 2012) • RESILIENCE: • The ability to rebound or build back better from sudden shock. • METHODS • Research area: Areas impacted by Lahar along Konto River. • Research units: hamlets along those area • Research subject: households • Research variables: demographic, assets, hazard, and land use variables • Research analytical tools: Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation or SMCE
  12. 12. Pulasari Tangkuban Parahu Slamet Merapi Muria Lawu Semeru Ijen Kelud RESEARCH AREA Basaltic – Andesitic Strato volcano, 14 massive eruption since year 1000. 300 m 2013 2014
  13. 13. Locally Rooted, Globally Respected www.ugm.ac.id Kelud Arjuno-Welirang Selorejo Reservoir Kediri Blitar Malang POST ERUPTION – 3D MODELLING USING SHUTTLE RADAR TOPOGRAPHIC MISSION Tourism Route to Kelud Crater Historical Record on Eruption Volume (Billion m3) Impacted Group 1000 ? ? 1334 ? ? 1586 ? 10000 1 Mei 1752 ? ? 10 Januari 1771 ? ? 11-25 Oktober 1826 ? ? 1835 ? ? 3-4 Januari 1864 ? ? 22-23 Mei 1901 200 ? 20 Mei 919 190 5160 31 Agustus 1951 200 7 24 April 1966 90 211 10 Februari 1990 150 32 November 2007 – Maret 2008 35 0 14 Februari 2014 130 1
  14. 14. Research unit: 21 hamlets along Konto River. Historical record of lahar at Konto River: - Pyroclastic material at upperstream 50 billion m3 (Dibyosaputro et al, 2015). - Feb, 19th 2014 – 5 days after eruption – triggered by 3.5 hours increased precipitation - Konto, Srinjing, Lekso, Semut, and Pulo-Jengglong flooded by lahar.
  15. 15. Locally Rooted, Globally Respected www.ugm.ac.id GEO EYE 2011 WORLD VIEW 2014 TOPOGRAP HIC MAP 2002 PRELIMINAR Y OBSERVATIO N CHANNEL BUFFER 100 M CHECK DAM INFORMATI ONBUILDING FOOTPRINT FIELD OBSERVATIO N HOUSEHOL D INTERVIEWINSTITUTIO NAL INTERVIEWSECONDARY DATA COLLECTION DEMOGRAP HICECON ASSETS LAND USE HAZARD RESEARCH DESIGN HAZARD VULNERABI LITIY X (Triggered) RISK DISASTER Occurence Emerge ncy PROBLEM TREESTANDARDIZ ATION WEIGHTING GENERATE SCENARIO Scenarios Social Vulnerability Physical Vulnerability Economic Vulnerability Equal Vulnerability Total Vulnerability Given Hazard Modify Vulnerability Minimize Risk Optimize Resilience VARIABLES
  16. 16. Step 1. Problem Tree Criteria Develop variables and factors to define vulnerability. 1. Physical Variable a. Distance to river b. Build up area c. Building density d. Sabo Dam e. Early Warning System f. Evacuation Route 2. Social Variable a. Demography b. Mining community c. Difable group d. Children and Elderly 3. Economic Variable a. Agriculture land b. Farmer community c. Poverty group 4. Step 2. Standardization  Cost applied to value that contribute negatively to the goals  Benefit applied to value that contribute positively to the goals.Step 3. Weighting  The criteria received pairwise comparison method for its weigh RESEARCH RESULT
  17. 17. Locally Rooted, Globally Respected www.ugm.ac.id RESEARCH RESULT Variabel Standarisasi Consider Bobot Jarak terhadap sungai Fuzzi- Maximum Cost 0,20 Luas area terdampak lahar Fuzzi- Maximum Benefit 0,15 Jumlah bangunan Fuzzi- Maximum Benefit 0,12 Kepadatan bangunan Fuzzi- Maximum Benefit 0,09 Jumlah sabo dam Fuzzi- Maximum Cost 0,06 EWS Fuzzi- Maximum Cost 0,04 Jalur evakuasi Fuzzi- Maximum Cost 0,04 Variabel Standarisasi Consider Bobot Jumlah Penambang Pasir Fuzzi- Maximum Benefit 0,41 Jumlah Penduduk Fuzzi- Maximum Benefit 0,23 Kepadatan Penduduk Fuzzi- Maximum Benefit 0,16 Penduduk Cacat Fuzzi- Maximum Benefit 0,10 Penduuduk Balita Fuzzi- Maximum Benefit 0,05 Penduduk Lansia Fuzzi- Maximum Benefit 0,05
  18. 18. RESEARCH RESULT The physical scenarios indicate that, “if the area dynamically challenged by physical characteristics, thus the most possible element at risk or vulnerable area are depicted within the physical scenarios” The social scenarios indicate that, “if the area dynamically challenged by social characteristics, thus the most possible element at risk or vulnerable area are depicted within the social scenarios”.
  19. 19. The economic scenarios indicate that, “if the area dynamically challenged by economic characteristics, thus the most possible element at risk or vulnerable area are depicted within the economic scenarios” The equal scenarios indicate that, “if the area equally challenged by physical, social and economic characteristics, thus the most possible element at risk or vulnerable area are depicted within the equal scenarios”. RESEARCH RESULT
  20. 20. Locally Rooted, Globally Respected www.ugm.ac.id Scenario Physical Vulnerability exposes that those area poses: - Low cliff wall - Rapid building footprint Potentially vulnerable in terms of physical aspects (a) Rumah di bawah Jembatan Kandangan tersapu oleh material lahar 2014 (b) Pemukiman di dalam alur Sungai Konto di bawah jembatan Desa Kandangan Scenario Social Vulnerability exposes that those area poses: - High population - High density Potentially vulnerable in terms of social aspects Scenario Economic Vulnerability exposes that those area poses: - Productive land (agriculture) - Poor family Potentially vulnerable in terms of economic aspects Tahun Volume (Juta m3) Korban 1000 ? ? 1334 ? ? 1586 ? 10000 1 Mei 1752 ? ? 10 Januari 1771 ? ? 11-25 Oktober 1826 ? ? 1835 ? ? 3-4 Januari 1864 ? ? 22-23 Mei 1901 200 ? 20 Mei 919 190 5160 31 Agustus 1951 200 7 24 April 1966 90 211 10 Februari 1990 150 32 November 2007 – Maret 2008 35 0 14 Februari 2014 130 1
  21. 21. CONCLUSION • This research argues that: • distribution of vulnerable area does not mainly focus on hazard existence • It mostly on the distribution of element at risk and the potential aspects exist in the area. • The SMCE has been very efficient to conduct vulnerability analysis for future need.
  22. 22. Exercise • Find a subject to observe within your environment • Tag along the probability of hazard • Identify the element at risk • Apply your approach in evaluating vulnerability • Critically, how will you leverage the observation using EcoDRR?
  23. 23. THANK YOU

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