Successfully reported this slideshow.
Your SlideShare is downloading. ×

Completion Report of the Certified Course "Introductory Course on Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability"

Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Asian Institute of Technology in coordination Keio University, Miyagi
University of Education, Andalas University, and Uni...
Annexes
Course Schedule
16 - 26 August 2021
Each Lecture Session will be 40 min talk followed by 15 min discussion (40+15 ...
Tuesday
24 Aug,
2021
Topic Name: Training Educators in Disaster Risk
Reduction
Instructor: Dr. Takashi Oda
Day 5
Wednesday...
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Check these out next

1 of 175 Ad

Completion Report of the Certified Course "Introductory Course on Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability"

Download to read offline

Asian Institute of Technology in coordination Keio University, Miyagi University of Education, Andalas University, and Universitas Gadjah Mada under ProSPER.Net consortium conducted a certificate course on "Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability" for members of Higher Education Institute on Disaster Resilience and Sustainable Development - HEI Network. The main objective of the training was to enhance the capacity and understanding of the young and early career researcher about the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR).

Learn more: https://prospernet.ias.unu.edu/projects/past-projects/disaster-education-for-integrating-sfdrr-and-sdg-in-asia

Asian Institute of Technology in coordination Keio University, Miyagi University of Education, Andalas University, and Universitas Gadjah Mada under ProSPER.Net consortium conducted a certificate course on "Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability" for members of Higher Education Institute on Disaster Resilience and Sustainable Development - HEI Network. The main objective of the training was to enhance the capacity and understanding of the young and early career researcher about the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR).

Learn more: https://prospernet.ias.unu.edu/projects/past-projects/disaster-education-for-integrating-sfdrr-and-sdg-in-asia

Advertisement
Advertisement

More Related Content

Similar to Completion Report of the Certified Course "Introductory Course on Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability" (20)

Advertisement
Advertisement

Completion Report of the Certified Course "Introductory Course on Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability"

  1. 1. Asian Institute of Technology in coordination Keio University, Miyagi University of Education, Andalas University, and Universities Gadjah Mada under ProSPER.Net consortium conducted a certificate course on "Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience, and Sustainability" for members of Higher Education Institute on Disaster Resilience and Sustainable Development – HEI Network. The main objective of the training was to enhance the capacity and understanding of the young and early career researcher about the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR).
  2. 2. Annexes Course Schedule 16 - 26 August 2021 Each Lecture Session will be 40 min talk followed by 15 min discussion (40+15 = 55 min) Date Time (Indo-China time) Session Topics Day 1 Monday 16 Aug, 2021 13:00– 14:00 PM Lecture 0 Topic Name: Opening Session / Introduction to the course outline and plan Instructor: Dr. Indrajit Pal Facilitator : Ganesh Dhungana 14:00 – 15:00 PM Lecture 1 Topic Name: Vulnerability, Resilience and Governance in Asia-Pacific Instructor: Dr. Indrajit Pal, Asian Institute of Technology Day 2 Wednesday 18 Aug, 2021 11:00– 12:00 PM Lecture 2 Topic Name: Pandemic Risk Reduction & Management Instructor: Dr. Defriman Djafri, Andalas University 12:00 – 13:00 PM Lecture 3 Topic Name: Civil engineering and Disaster Risk Reduction Instructor: Prof. Abdul Hakam, Andalas University Day 3 Friday 20 Aug, 2021 11:00– 12:00 PM Lecture 4 Topic Name: Science, Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Instructor: Prof. Rajib Shaw, Keio University 12:00 – 13:00 PM Lecture 5 Topic Name: Urban rural linkages and resilience building Instructor: Vibhas Sukhwani, Keio University Day 4 11:00– 12:00 PM Lecture 6 Topic Name: Large-scale disaster and the role of school Instructor: Prof. Tomonori Ichinose 12:00– 13:00 PM Lecture 7
  3. 3. Tuesday 24 Aug, 2021 Topic Name: Training Educators in Disaster Risk Reduction Instructor: Dr. Takashi Oda Day 5 Wednesday 25 Aug, 2021 11:00– 12:00 PM Lecture 8 Topic Name: Climate Change Impacts on Hydro- climatic Extremes: Evidences from Modeling Studies Instructor: Prof. Sangam Shrestha, Asian Institute of Technology 12:00– 13:00 PM Lecture 9 Topic Name: Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for Sustainability - Geospatial Approach Instructor: Dr. Anirban Mukhopadhyay, Asian Institute of Technology Day 6 Thursday 26 Aug, 2021 11:00– 12:00 PM Lecture 10 Topic Name: Vulnerability and Resilience Outlook for Indonesia Instructor: Dr. Dyah Rahmawati Hizbaron, Universitas Gadjah Mada 12:00– 13:00 PM Lecture 11 Topic Name: Disaster Risk Management and Development Instructor: Dr. Estuning Tyas Wulan Mei, Universitas Gadjah Mada (TBC) 13:00– 14:00 PM Lecture 12 Topic Name: End of the training Discussion Forum and Feedback Instructor: Dr. Indrajit Pal Facilitator : Ganesh Dhungana
  4. 4. Participant Details Name of Student County of residence Name of University/Institution Affiliation Lucky Zamzamu, PhD Indonesia Universitas Andalas Research Scholar/ Academic Staff Fajri Muharja Indonesia Universititas Andalas Research Scholar/ Academic Staff Darshini S Shekhar India Presidency university Research Scholar/ Academic Staff Vonny Indah Mutiara Indonesia Andalas University Research Scholar/ Academic Staff Rika Hariance Indonesia Andalas University Doctoral Student Elvi Oktarina Indonesia Universitas Andalas Faculty Nanami Yamazawa Japan Keio University Post Graduate Student Shwetha K G India Nitte Meenakshi Institute of Technology Faculty Mahesh Kumar C L India Nitte Meenakshi Institute of Technology Doctoral Student Mohammad Naufal Fathoni Indonesia Universitas Gadjah Mada Post Graduate Student Alia Fajarwati Indonesia Universitas Gadjah Mada Doctoral Student Rofiatun Nur Lathifah Indonesia Universitas Gadjah Mada Post Graduate Student Iredo Bettie Puspita Indonesia Universitas Gadjah Mada Doctoral Student Adinda Deviana, S.Geo Indonesia Gadjah Mada University Post Graduate Student A.K.A. Agustinus Indonesia Universitas Gadjah Mada Doctoral Student Hilary Reinhart Indonesia Universitas Gadjah Mada Faculty Yuli Widiyatmoko Indonesia Universitas Gadjah Mada Post Graduate Student Adil Nadeem Hussain India Presidency University Research Scholar/ Academic Staff Thess Khaz S. Raza Philippines University of the Philippines Post Graduate Student Anil Kumar India Asian Institute of Technology Doctoral Student Kullanan Sukwanchai Thailand Asian Institute of Technology Doctoral Student
  5. 5. Furqan Ali Shaikh Thailand Asian Institute of Technology Doctoral Student Erick Oinde Philippines Philippine School of Business Administration Post Graduate Student Bui Phan Quoc Nghia Thailand Asian Institute of Technology Doctoral Student Arunswasdi Bhuridadtpong Thailand Asian Institute of Technology Doctoral Student Trang nguyen Thailand Asian Institute of Technology Working professional Afshana Parven Thailand Asian Institute of Technology Doctoral Student Md. Shahidul Hasan Bangladesh Asian Institute of Technology Doctoral Student Neelay Srivastava India Asian Institute of Technology Doctoral Student Mazhar Ali Thailand Asian Institute of Technology Doctoral Student Hamza Islam Pakistan University of Sindh Jamshoro Working professional Sujan Kumal Nepal Action Nepal Working professional Md. Ashik-Ur- Rahman Bangladesh Khulna University Faculty
  6. 6. Sample Certificate
  7. 7. Program Brochure Training on Disaster Risk Reduction necessitates interdisciplinary research. Enhancing the capacity of the young and early career researcher is the key to mainstream DRR practices in development planning. The “Introductory Course on Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability” is co-designed by the Asian Institute of Technology, Keio University, Miyagi University of Education, Andalas University, and Universities Gadjah Mada under ProSPER.Net consortium. The certificate course is offered to the members of Higher Education Institute on Disaster Resilience and Sustainable Development. (HEI - DRSD) to enhance their understanding about the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR). The course will help to develop basic understanding about Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and sustainable development and contribute to producing a qualified human resource. Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability A U G U S T 2 0 2 1 Introduction Duration: 12 Hours (Spread across two weeks) Mode: Virtual Date : 16 - 26, August, 2021 CERTIFICATE COURSE
  8. 8. Have a fundamental understanding of Disaster Risk Reduction. Understand the implementation context of the various perspective of SFDRR. Understand targets and priorities of Sendai Framework and its interrelation with SDGs. Understand various case studies on SDGs and SFDRR in practice and policy. 16 Aug, 2021 Opening Session 13:00– 14:00 PM Chair : Dr. Indrajit Pal Facilitator: Ganesh Dhungana Lecture 1 14:00 – 15:00 PM Vulnerability, Resilience and Governance in Asia-Pacific Instructor: Dr. Indrajit Pal, Asian Institute of Technology 18 Aug, 2021 Lecture 2 11:00– 12:00 PM Pandemic Risk Reduction & Management Instructor: Dr. Defriman Djafri, Andalas University Lecture 3 12:00 – 13:00 PM Civil engineering and disaster risk reduction Instructor: Prof. Abdul Hakam, Andalas University 20 Aug, 2021 Lecture 4 11:00– 12:00 PM Science, Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Instructor: Prof. Rajib Shaw, Keio University Lecture 5 12:00 – 13:00 PM Urban Rural Linkages and Resilience Building Instructor: Vibhas Sukhwani, Keio University 24 Aug, 2021 Lecture 6 11:00– 12:00 PM Large-scale Disaster and the Role of School Instructor:Prof. Tomonori Ichinose, Miyagi University of Education Lecture 7 12:00– 13:00 PM Training Educators in Disaster Risk Reduction Instructor: Dr. Takashi Oda, Miyagi University of Education 26 Aug, 2021 Lecture 10 11:00– 12:00 PM Vulnerability and Resilience Outlook for Indonesia Instructor:Dr.Dyah Rahmawati Hizbaron, Universitas Gadjah Mada Lecture 11 12:00– 13:00 PM Disaster Risk Management and Development Instructor: Dr. Estuning Tyas Wulan Mei, Universitas Gadjah Mada Discussion forum, Feedback and Closing Session 13:00– 14:00 PM 25 Aug, 2021 Lecture 8 11:00– 12:00 PM Climate Change Impacts on Hydro-climatic Extremes: Evidences from Modeling Studies Instructor: Prof. Sangam Shrestha, Asian Institute of Technology Lecture 9 12:00– 13:00 PM Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for Sustainability - Geospatial Approach Instructor: Dr. Anirban Mukhopadhyay, Asian Institute of Technology Outcomes of the Course Upon successful completion of the course, participants will be able to: 12 hours of lecture Required minimum 5 Hours of self-studies Assignment Discussion Forum Developed for ProSPER.Net project “Disaster Education for integrating SFDRR and SDG in Asia"
  9. 9. Lecture Notes Dr. Indrajit Pal, Academic Program Chair, Disaster Preparedness, Mitigation and Management, Asian Institute of Technology, THAILAND Email: indrajit-pal@ait.ac.th “Vulnerability, Resilience and Governance in Asia-Pacific” Aug 16, 2021 Certificate Course on “Introductory Course on Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability” WORLDWIDE ISSUES RELATED TO DISASTERS
  10. 10. Hazards and disasters Disasters in 2019 World Disaster Report 2020 ▪ In the categories of disaster occurrence, the number of people affected and the amount of economic damage accounting for 38.2 percent, 74.4 percent and 60.6 percent respectively. Source: NDB 2019 ASIA RANKS THE FIRST AMONG ALL REGIONS
  11. 11. DRR IN ASIA PACIFIC… Source: GAR 2019 Asia Pacific Disaster Resilience Network Vulnerability index and exposure index of countries in Asia and the Pacific WHY ARE DISASTER IMPACTS INCREASING? 1. Increased in population 2. Climate change 3. Increased vulnerability due to: ▪ Demographic changes ▪ Increased concentration of assets ▪ Environmental degradation ▪ Poverty ▪ Rapid urbanization and unplanned development
  12. 12. DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT Illustration of the core concepts of IPCC WGII AR5 Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (AR5) chapter on ‘Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
  13. 13. A Paradigm Shift from Crisis Management to Risk Management DIMENSIONS & TRENDS D e t e r m i n a n t s o f R Hazard: Exposure: Vulnerability: “changes in exposure and in some case vulnerability are the main drivers behind observed trends in disaster losses” Environmental dimension Vulnerable natural systems Impacts on systems Mechanisms causing impacts Responses Socialdimension Population groups Education Health and well-being Culture Economic dimension Economic system Work and livelihoods Q: How we can reduce the Determinants of RISK?
  14. 14. INTENSIVE RISK (HIGH SEVERITY, LOW FREQUENCY) AND EXTENSIVE RISK (LOW SEVERITY, HIGH FREQUENCY) INTENSIVE RISK ▪ Risk associated with high-severity, mid to low-frequency events. ▪ Exposure of large concentrations of people and economic activities. ▪ Can lead to potential catastrophe. ▪ Disaster impacts involve high mortality and asset loss. (UNISDR, 2009; UNISDR, 2015)
  15. 15. EXTENSIVE RISK ▪ Risk associated with low severity and high-frequency events. ▪ Extensive risk is normally associated with weather- related hazards. ▪ Disasters occur in both urban and rural settings, ▪ Primarily affecting Low and Middle-income countries. ▪ Across these countries, extensive disasters are responsible for only 14 per cent of total disaster mortality NATIONAL DISASTER LOSS DATA FOR 85 COUNTRIES AND STATES • 99.1 per cent of the local-level loss reports from these 85 countries and states are manifestations of extensive risk, with 96.4 per cent resulting from weather-related events. • The economic losses from extensive disasters account for more than 45 per cent of total accumulated loss.
  16. 16. GLOBAL MORTALITY LOSSES ARE CONCENTRATED IN INTENSIVE DISASTERS Mortality losses are concentrated in a few intensive disasters, and recent disasters give the false impressions that global mortalities are on the rise. PERCENTAGE OF DAMAGE AND LOSS FROM EXTENSIVE AND INTENSIVE DISASTER EVENTS (65 COUNTRIES, 2 STATES)
  17. 17. TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS FOR SMART RESILIENCE Use of big data sources for disaster management, 2012–2018 Source: Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2019, Manzhu Yu and others, 2018 Big data: four types of analytics for smart resilience Resilience is the ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner. What is resilience ? Japanese say, Resilience like bamboo, which bends under the weight of winter snow but stands tall again come springtime. Snow-covered bamboo represents the ability to spring back after experiencing adversity. Roly-poly toy
  18. 18. Definitions 21 Definition IPCC UNDRR Risk “The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values.” “The potential loss of life, injury, or destroyed or damaged assets which could occur to a system, society or a community in a specific period of time, determined probabilistically as a function of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity.” Resilience “The capacity of social, economic and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation.” “The ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions through risk management.” • Resilience is at the central to Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015– 2030, the Sustainable Development Goals, and the Paris Climate Agreement. • Resilience is “The ability of a system, community, or society to pursue its social, ecological, and economic development and growth objectives, while managing its disaster risk over time in a mutually reinforcing way” (McQuistan, 2016). • Resilience requires a systems approach to explore development and disasters across sectors and at multiple scales 22 Resilience is at the central of development
  19. 19. Adapted from Bruneau, 2003 and McDaniels, 2008 Functionalit y Tim e Time to Full Recovery Residual Functionalit y Modifications before disruptive events that improve system performance Repairs after disruptive event to restore system functionality Lost Functionalit y Aging System Event RESILIENCE CONCEPT Maintain acceptable levels of functionality during and after disruptive events Recover full functionality within a specified period of time Key factors influencing resilience and decreasing disaster risk Source: Turnbull et al., 2013
  20. 20. SENDAI FRAMEWORK- 2015 to 2030 ✔ Priority 1: Understanding disaster risk. ✔ Priority 2: Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk. ✔ Priority 3: Investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience. ✔ Priority 4: Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and to “Build Back Better” in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. EVOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL POLICY AGENDA FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 at the third United Nations World Conference on Disaster Reduction (WCDR). Source: GAR 2019
  21. 21. LOCAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES AND PLANS IN URBAN AREAS Number of urban areas with populations over 750,000 affected by disasters (1985–2015) Source: GAR 2019, Gencer and UNDDR 2017 State of local DRR plans as reported by the 169 cities of the MCR Campaign SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM SHOWING A HOLISTIC APPROACH FOR INTEGRATING DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (DRR) WITH CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION (CCA) OVER THE SOUTH ASIAN REGION Source: Rajesh K. Mall et.al
  22. 22. Complex Development Challenge: how to avoid the collapse of South and SE Asian deltas as functioning, highly productive social-ecological systems in the face of human development and projected adverse consequences of climate change UKRI GCRF “Living Deltas” HUB project 4 delta social-ecological systems (SESs)
  23. 23. Living Deltas Hub: Project Deltas Delta Shapefiles obtained from Tessler et al. (Science, 2015) Types of multi-hazard risk assessment and its methodologies Sahani et al. (2019) 32
  24. 24. Indicator-based approach for resilience assessment Lwin and Pal, et al. (2020) CYCLONE AMPHAN (MAY 2020)
  25. 25. ▪ First case detected in March 2020 ▪ Cases increase – Categorized as Red Zone ▪ Highest number of Containment zones in the city ▪ Negative effect on people and economy, social stigma ▪ Positive effect on the environment- improvement of air quality 3861 15655 18513 16255 24876 193 363 480 420 496 0 10000 20000 30000 June July August September October COVID-19 Status in Kolkata Cases Deaths • A cyclone hit West Bengal on May with a windspeed-130 km/hr • Affected India( Kolkata and 6 other districts and Bangladesh • Impact on different sectors-communication, electricity, WASH and many other • Fear of COVID-19 complicated the disaster management process • COVID-19 cases upsurge in the city post-cyclone. Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak Fig 2. COVID-19 Status in Kolkata (Source: Yengkhom, S, 2020) Destruction caused by wind during cyclone Amphan (Source: Goptu, S 2020) Super Cyclone Amphan (May 2020) Cyclone Amphan Track of Cyclone Amphan (Source: IMD) Amphan was considered the first of its kind after Odisha Super cyclone 1999 in severity and scale. 13 May 2020 Originated from a low- pressure area persisting around 300 km east of Colombo, Sri Lanka 18 May 2020 Amphan reached its peak intensity with sustained wind speeds of 240 km/h 20 May 2020 Amphan made landfall South of Kolkata, India, and Hathiya islands in Bangladesh (IMD, 2020).
  26. 26. Amphan Impact •West Bengal: • 13 million people affected with 98 dead and around 0.7 million displaced, most deaths due to electrocution and collapse of buildings • Damage of worth USD 13.5 billion. • 2.1 million animals, damaged 8007 fishing boats, and caused damage to 17,000 sq. km of agricultural land • Effect on Critical infrastructures- shelter (one million houses damaged) electricity (electric poles toppled down), communication (mobile network towers toppled down), water most effected along with livelihoods and industries. •Kolkata: • 15 million people affected, and 19 deaths. Pumping stations broke down affecting the water drainage.
  27. 27. → High death rate of children <5 age → Inadequacy of water and sanitation facilities → Poor health care infrastructure → Overwhelmed health services → Children - Stunting 52% and Chronic malnutrition 44.6% → Injury and disability - impacts of natural hazards → Mental disorder - affected by poverty → Post-traumatic - animal attack-related disorders → common chronic ailments → Lack of availability - maternal health care PRE-EXISTING VULNERABILITY ON HUMAN HEALTH Policy response to mitigate the impact of Cyclone Amphan during pandemic
  28. 28. - Evacuation plans - Construction of shelters - Early warning systems - Evacuation drills - Health systems capacity - Emergency response - Continuing basic services - Aid and relied distribution - Medical assistance, health systems access and capacity - Short-term (up to 3 years) repair, reconstruction of homes, infrastructure, services - Temporary housing - Construction of embankments - Regulation on property development in hazards prone areas - Regulation on farming development Managing dual risk of hydro-met and biological hazards Preparedness & Early Warning Response Rehabilitation/ Reconstruction Mitigation & Prevention Disaster Risk Management Hazard strikes Preparedness and response severely hampered/slowed down due to Covid-19 restrictions 41 ▪ Need for going beyond managing single hazard to multi-hazard risk management ▪ Integrated management of dual risk from hydro-met as well as biological hazards ▪ Preparedness and response strategies should consider the social distancing (For example during the pandemic, how evacuation process will be affected or how capacity of the shelter will decrease due to social distancing need to be considered) ▪ Coordination of multiple actors/stakeholders/improved governance Building back better for managing multi-hazards including pandemic 42
  29. 29. Sustainable development pathways and resilience DRR PUBLICATIONS (Selected Books only)
  30. 30. Pandemic Risk Reduction and Management Defriman Djafri1,2,3,4 1Dept of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Public Health, Universitas Andalas 2Chairman of Indonesian Epidemiological Association, West Sumatra Chapter 3Chairman of Indonesian Public Health Professional Union, Sumatra Region 4Member of International Epidemiological Association defrimandjafri@ph.unand.ac.id, defriman.djafri@mail.harvard.edu Universitas Andalas ©defrimandjafri Outline • Evolution of the disaster risk concept • Pandemic Risk Reduction (PRR) and Management • The implication of PRR in interdisciplinary higher education • Conclusion
  31. 31. ©defrimandjafri Evolution of the disaster risk concept Risk = Hazard •1960s - 1970s Risk = Hazard + Vulnerability •1970s - 1990s Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability •1990s - 2000s Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability Capacity •>2000s What Next..? Source : Wamsler, C. (2009). Urban risk reduction and adaptation: how to promote resilient communitites and adapt to increasing disasters and changing climate conditions. Saarbrucken: VDM Verlag Dr. Muller ©defrimandjafri “Your successors will have to deal with these more difficult issues, but they will benefit from the steps you take now. If you help correct the problems of the present, generations to come will welcome the future” Source: https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/978-0-8213-8050-5
  32. 32. ©defrimandjafri Term and Definition • AN EPIDEMIC is a disease that affects a large number of people within a community, population, or region. • A PANDEMIC is an epidemic that’s spread over multiple countries or continents. • ENDEMIC is something that belongs to a particular people or country. • AN OUTBREAK is a greater-than-anticipated increase in the number of endemic cases. It can also be a single case in a new area. If it’s not quickly controlled, an outbreak can become an epidemic ©defrimandjafri The continuum of pandemic phases Source: Pandemic Influenza Risk Management Guidance, WHO, 2017
  33. 33. ©defrimandjafri The basics types of epidemic curve 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 common continuous source point source common intermittent source propagated source (person-to-person) ©defrimandjafri Pandemic influenza during the last 100 years and its characteristics Source: Influenza Vaccines: Unmet Needs and Recent Developments, Infect Chemother 2013;45(4):375-386
  34. 34. ©defrimandjafri Global Situation of the Covid-19 Pandemic ©defrimandjafri
  35. 35. ©defrimandjafri Pandemic Risk Reduction & Management • Comprehensive risk management • All-hazards approach • Multisectoral approach • Multidisciplinary approach • Community resilience • Sustainable development • Ethical basis Source: Pandemic Influenza Risk Management Guidance, WHO, 2017 & Pandemic Risk Management in Operations and Finance: Modeling the Impact of COVID-19, Springer, 2020 ©defrimandjafri Backcasting Infected Swab samples were taken Samples received at the Lab Sample checked & analyzed Results reported 2-4 days 1-3 days 1-2 days 1-2 days Estimated onset distance - reporting estimated at 7-10 days, mean 8 days for West Sumatra Province
  36. 36. ©defrimandjafri Backcasting Trend of Confirmation Cases, Deaths, Testing Covid-19 in West Sumatra Province 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 10-Mar-2020 16-Mar-2020 22-Mar-2020 28-Mar-2020 3-Apr-2020 9-Apr-2020 15-Apr-2020 21-Apr-2020 27-Apr-2020 3-May-2020 9-May-2020 15-May-2020 21-May-2020 27-May-2020 2-Jun-2020 8-Jun-2020 14-Jun-2020 20-Jun-2020 26-Jun-2020 2-Jul-2020 8-Jul-2020 14-Jul -2020 20-Jul -2020 26-Jul -2020 1-Aug-2020 7-Aug-2020 13-Aug-2020 19-Aug-2020 25-Aug-2020 31-Aug-2020 6-Sep-2020 12-Sep-2020 18-Sep-2020 24-Sep-2020 30-Sep-2020 6-Oct-2020 12-Oct-2020 18-Oct-2020 24-Oct-2020 30-Oct-2020 5-Nov-2020 11-Nov-2020 17-Nov-2020 23-Nov-2020 29-Nov-2020 5-Dec-2020 11-Dec-2020 17-Dec-2020 23-Dec-2020 29-Dec-2020 4-Jan-2021 10-Jan-2021 16-Jan-2021 22-Jan-2021 28-Jan-2021 3-Feb-2021 9-Feb-2021 15-Feb-2021 21-Feb-2021 27-Feb-2021 5-Mar-2021 11-Mar-2021 17-Mar-2021 23-Mar-2021 29-Mar-2021 4-Apr-2021 10-Apr-2021 16-Apr-2021 22-Apr-2021 28-Apr-2021 4-May-2021 10-May-2021 16-May-2021 22-May-2021 28-May-2021 3-Jun-2021 9-Jun-2021 15-Jun-2021 21-Jun-2021 27-Jun-2021 3-Jul-2021 9-Jul-2021 15-Jul -2021 21-Jul -2021 27-Jul -2021 2-Aug-2021 8-Aug-2021 Number of persons tested per 1000 (per week) Number of Confirmed Cases & Death-Cumulative Jumlah Orang di Testing Konfirmasi Positif ( Mundur 8 Hari) Jumlah Kematian Kumulatif PSBB PPKM PPKM Mikro PPKM Darurat PPKM Level 1-4 ©defrimandjafri Number of Death-Cumulative Covid-19 in West Sumatra (24 March 2020- 7 June 2021) Data Sources: Provincial Health Office, West Sumatra , 2021
  37. 37. ©defrimandjafri Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) Covid-19 in West Sumatra Province (24 March 2020- 7 June 2021) Data Sources: Provincial Health Office, West Sumatra , 2021 ©defrimandjafri Situational assessment using transmission level and response capacity Source: Considerations for implementing and adjusting public health and social measures in the context of COVID-19, WHO 2021
  38. 38. ©defrimandjafri Managing COVID-19 Pandemic disruptions, both upstream and downstream Institution/Social Capital/Social Network Personal Deteksi ( detect , test and treat ) Jaga Jarak Fisik & Sosial (Social/Physical Distancing) Pelacakan kontak ( contact tracing ) Alat Pelindung Diri ( PPE) Isolasi (isolate) Hygiene Perorangan (Personal Hygiene) Promosi & Literasi Kesehatan ( health promotion & literacy) Pembatasan Perjalanan ( Travel Restriction ) Kesiapan Sistem Kesehatan (SDM, Infrastruktur, dll.) (Health System Resilience ) Tingkatkan kesadaran & pengetahuan ( Awareness) ©defrimandjafri Health in the river of live Sumber: From health education to healthy learning: Implementing salutogenesis in educational science, Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, 2011; 39(Suppl 6): 85–92 Social/Physical Distancing Personal Hygiene, PPE Healthy lifestyle movement
  39. 39. ©defrimandjafri The Target of Health Promotion, Education & Literacy High Awareness Low Awareness High Knowledge Low Knowledge § Stay at home § Stay clean § Stay healthy § Stay cool § Believe Hoax Information § Exclude § Rejection § Fanatic § Don't understand flattening the curve § Wear a mask only for the sick. § Believe in herd immunity § Economic compulsion § Unlimited credit § Being able to eat today Stigma : – Belief – Lack of knowledge ©defrimandjafri Playing "Hide And Seek" with Covid-19
  40. 40. ©defrimandjafri Equilibrium state Environment Agent Biological, chemical, physical Mechanical, Nutrient Age, race, sex, habit, genetic, personality, defense mechanism Biological, chemical, physical Mechanical, nutrient, soci0-antrophology, psychologic & economic Host(person) ©defrimandjafri Interdisciplinary & Multidisciplinary approach Agent Host Environment Engineering Law & Administration Intervention Genetically modified virus Genetic , Immunity, Nutrition & Behavior, Vaccine Medicine & Public Health Science Natural & Environmental Sciences Engineering Sciences Law, Economic, Social-anthrophology Sciences New Habit and Adaptation Behavioral Sciences
  41. 41. ©defrimandjafri Video Conference with Heads of Health Offices throughout West Sumatra Province ©defrimandjafri
  42. 42. ©defrimandjafri Draft of PSBB Document ©defrimandjafri We should do.. • Understand the process. • Find a way to be involve in the process. • Communicate information more effectively. • Utilize analytic tools. • Educate a range of “players” (staffers, advocates, task forces, etc..). • To provide the innovation training and education program. 27
  43. 43. Civil Engineering and Disaster Risk Reduction Abdul Hakam Andalas University Padang, Indonesia 2021 Who is Civil Engineer the one is the man behind the scene the one is taking the responsibility for the existence of constructions Beautiful building: Architect will be asked In ‘normal‘ (safe) situation: Public in general wanna know the one who design the building or constructions. but In Case of disaster: Public will judge ask who the builder is ...
  44. 44. Role of Civil Engineer Keep the beautiful exist, Make it safe, No collapse, no damage, no ‘worries’ at any circumstance Fail in Civil Engineer’s Role Generally the damage construction due to disaster is caused by: • improper planning, • failure of structural design, • poor infrastructural facilities, • ignorance of building norms (code), • low quality materials • lack of site investigations.
  45. 45. Different Civil Engineers Some speciality in civil engineering structural engineer, geotechnical engineer, marine engineer, construction management, city planner, All of then have to play the active role in disaster mitigation. Work together to make a ‘good teamwork’ Beautiful Constructions:
  46. 46. A disaster is defined as a ‘sudden’ event, that causes damage or loss of things ‘any unfortunate event’ which the consequences are serious destruction Things Lost or Destroyed: • life • property or material • psychology • environment • possibility of losing (things: .... ) • a cindition involving exposure to danger • the chance that any event will actually cause disaster Risky things: expose to danger, harm, or loss
  47. 47. R = H V C-1 R = Risk H = Hazard C = Capacity V = Vulnerability Hazards Hazards are the potential for a disaster, may include • earthquakes, • tsunamis, • floods, • winds, • Landslide, • ...
  48. 48. Event Event is the change situasi atau condition caused by hazard(s) The Change can be: just a moment permanent temporary Civil Engineers create potential disaster • If construction is build in hazardous area, then it will create disaster risk • The risk must be assessed
  49. 49. Examples Deadly Florida Condo Collpase (2021), took 90s person Earthquake and Tsunami taiwannews.com.tw eastbaytimes.com Palu, Indonesia (2018)
  50. 50. Liquefaction hindustantimes.com bangkokpost.com Palu, Indonesia (2018) itn-slate.eu the Risk R = H x V / C Reduce the Risk by: Reducing the H (hazard) Reducing the V (vulnerability) Increasing the C (capacity)
  51. 51. Reducing Hazard Collect any hazard information (documents: map, journal etc.) Conduct investigation (testing, boring, measurment) Identify the Potential hazard Calculate the magnitude of the hazard (hazard assessment) Make the hazard reduction plan or avoid the hazard Increasing the Capasity Capacity is the ability to hold something (the hazard) Capacity usually refer to the ability of person to face the potential hazard Then, the Increasing the capacity can be done by: Teach the knowledge more effectively. Offer short special training for specific case. Develop new construction technologies and teach them Provide a consistent onboarding process for new civil engineers etc.
  52. 52. reducing the vulnerability Vulnerability in Civil Engineering usually refer to the product (construction), then it can be done by: • increase the factor of safety (in calculation) • consider multiple loads (in analysis) • applied sophisticated method • increase the strength (dimentions or change materials) • applied better technologies • use better construction materials Thanks •ขอบคุณ •Terimakasih
  53. 53. Science Technology and Innovation in Disaster Risk Reduction Rajib Shaw Professor, Keio University, Japan Co-Chair, United Nations Asia-Pacific Science Technology Advisory Group (AP-STAAG) Coordinating Lead Author (CLA), Asia Chapter, IPCC 6th Assessment Report Co-Founder, Resilience Innovation Knowledge Academy (RIKA) Distinguished Professor, Sichuan University www.rajibshaw.org AND www.rikaindia.com 1990-2020 Context: Pre-Sendai: Science Technology • 1984: World Conference on Earthquake Engineering: "I believe there is great need, and much support can be found, to establish an International Decade of Hazard Reduction. This special initiative would see all nations joining forces to reduce the consequences of natural hazards," Frank Press, President of US National Science Academy, SF, 8th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering • 1990-1999: IDNDR: Science Technology Committee [STC] • 2000-onward: ISDR: Science Technology Advisory Group [STAG] at global level • Regional Level in Asia • Stakeholder Group of Science Technology Academia • 2005: ASTAAG: Asia Science Technology Academia Advisory Group
  54. 54. Implementation Oriented Technology (IOT): Mangrove as coastal buffer Research (By ICHARM, Japan By DINAR CATUR ISTIYANTO) Training (Coastal Dynamic Research Center Indonesia) Action (Cities and municipalities in West Sumatra Province: Padang) Engineering tool for planning coastal protection by using mangrove-forest Source: DRH-10 Process Technology: Neighborhood Watching Research (Kyoto University, Japan) Training (City officials and School teachers in Saijo city, Japan) Action (in all schools in Saijo for last 11 years) Students PTA Local Govt Local residents Teachers
  55. 55. Transferable Indigenous Knowledge: River erosion Control Research (Kyoto University, Japan) Training (Central and local govt. official) Action (Customization of materials in local context) Source: DRH Conext: Post Sendai • Sepcific focus on new hazards • Natech (Natural hazard induced technological disaster) • Biological hazards • Specific focus on science and technology • Health related issues • ST policy • Focus on innovation • Specific focus on non-traditional stakehodlders • Science technology academic group • Private sectors
  56. 56. Policy gaps Policy gaps 8 1st Asia Science Technology Conference On Disaster Risk Reduction (ASTCDRR)
  57. 57. Research Gaps Key countries
  58. 58. Breaking this barrier is crucial Contents Digital divide and inclusiveness
  59. 59. Digital divide and need for inclusiveness • Countries and socio-economic clusters • Infrastructure based divide • Policy based divide • Urban rural divide • Age based divide • Gender based divide • Physical and mental challenge based divide Kochi prefecture Nishida et al. (2014) Digital media penetration Aged population Seismic and tsunami risk Flood risk GAPS: People and Policy Dimensions • Gaps in S/T and its use in decision making as well as service to people • Gaps in research on human losses versus infrastructure losses • Gaps in applying new technologies serving the most needy people
  60. 60. Science Technology Milestone: Global and Regional March 2015: SFDRR May 2017: Global Platform On DRR, Cancun, Mexico November 2017: Global Sc-Tech Conference Tokyo August 2016: Asia Sc.-Tech Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (ASTCDRR) Bangkok, Thailand April 2018: ASTCDRR Beijing, China July 2018: AMCDRR Mongolia May 2015: ASTAAG November 2016: Asia Ministerial Meeting on DRR (AMCDRR) January 2016: Global Sc-Tech Conference and Global Road Map May 2019 Global Platform On DRR, Geneva March 2020: ASTCDRR KL, Malaysia June 2020: APMCDRR Brisbane, Australia 15th of October 2020 Around end of 2022 ?
  61. 61. Co-designing Disaster Risk Reduction Solutions: Towards participatory action and communication in science, technology and academia 2017 UNISDR Asia Science Technology and Academia Advisory Group (ASTAAG) Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC) Co-designing Disaster Risk Reduction Solutions: Towards participatory action and communication in science, technology and academia 2017 UNISDR Asia Science Technology and Academia Advisory Group (ASTAAG) Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC) 1st Asia Science Technology Conference On Disaster Risk Reduction (ASTCDRR) 2016 Bangkok, Thailand Global Platform in Cancun 2017 11 countries 28 examples of application of science 14 countries 40 examples of co-designing solutions Science & Technology into Action Disaster Risk Reduction Perspectives from Asia 2018 2nd Asia Science Technology Conference On Disaster Risk Reduction (ASTCDRR) 2018 Beijing, China 12 countries 25 examples of S-T actions 14 countries 24 examples of co-designing solutions 3rd APSTCDRR, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia https://www.undrr.org/publication/status-science-and-technology-disaster-risk-reduction-asia-pacific-2020 Priority for action 1 Understanding disaster risk Priority for action 2 Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance to Manage Disaster Risk Priority for action 3 Investing in Disaster Risk Reduction for Resilience Priority for action 4 Enhancing Disaster Preparedness for Effective Response, and to “Build Back Better” in Recovery, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction
  62. 62. National Institutional Arrangement (Malaysia) The Director General of NADMA Malaysia & the Science Advisor to the Prime Minister are co- chairs of the Scientific Expert Panel on DRR, which provides scientific support on DRR and reports to the National Science Council, chaired by the Hon. Prime Minister of Malaysia National Conference on Science, Technology and Innovation on DRR, 2017 Convened by NADMA, ASM & SEADPRI-UKM National Plan on Science, Technology and Innovation for DRR Source: Joy Pereira Engineering Resilience through Multi-Stakeholder Partnerships: The Philippine National Resilience Council Antonia Yulo Loyzaga 1, Emma Porio2, Jessica Dator-Bercilla1, Noralene Uy2 1-Manila Observatory,2-Ateneo de Manila University Antonia Yulo Loyzaga, Emma Porio, Jessica Bercilla, Noarlene Uy Manila Observatory and Ateneo de Manila University aloyzaga@observatory.ph, eporio@ateneo.edu www.observatory.ph www.ateneo.edu Co-Chair Private Sector NATIONAL RESILIENCE COUNCIL Co-Chair Government President Secretariat Executive Director Vice-Chair Private Sector Vice-Chair Government Vice-Chair Scientific Community/ Academe Vice-Chair CSOs/NGOs NATIONAL RESILINECE COUNCIL LEADERSHIP FRAMEWORK FOR RESILIENT PH2022 RESILIENCE MODEL I M M E D I AT E O U T C O M E S PILLARS OF LGU SYSTEM HUMAN DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABLE LOCAL ECONOMY INFRASTRUCTURE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABLITIY Resilient systems of health, education and social protection Resilient livelihoods, enterprises and businesses Resilient housing, building and lifelines Healthy ecosystems Socio-ecological protection systems Pollution management and resource use efficiency LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNENANCE IN RESILIENCY • Leadership Commitment and Competencies • Empowered Stakeholders • Integrates Dev’t Planning, implementation and Evaluation IMPACT Resilient LGUs Provinces Cities Municipalities Reduced deaths Reduced damage to properties, infra and agri Development continuity The Philippines is situated in the Pacific Ring of Fire and experiences an average of 20 tropical cyclones a year. Despite advances in early warning systems, a fast growing economy and recent legislation stipulating mandates for disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and sustainable development, it has remained within the top three countries most at risk to five major hazards from 2011-2016 (UNU-EHS) and was ranked fourth among the countries with the highest human cost to weather-related disasters between 1995-2015 (CRED-UNISDR). Shih noted in 2016 that the Philippines may be among the most at risk in terms of GDP loss, mortality and peoples affected by climate change and other natural hazards between 2020-2030. . society established the National Resilience Council (NRC) as a science and technology- based public-private partnership. NRC will implement a Resiliency Leadership Program that uses demand-driven partnerships models, policy development support and localized assessment tools to respond to resilience challenges. The NRC will serve as a platform for the advancement of the objectives of UNISDR STAG/ASTAAG and ARISE in partnership with the Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). Initial commitments to the Resiliency Program include four cities and one major province. Impacts of Ketsana and Haiyan, and the potential for a catastrophic earthquake compel re-examination of the role of science and technology in understanding dynamic relationships between evolving hazards, growing economic exposure and socio-ecological vulnerability. Coastal urbanization patterns and regional climate projections further underscore the urgent need for trans-disciplinary research that involves non-traditional partners, such as informal communities and the private sector, in crafting and implementing whole-of society efforts towards disaster resilience. Recognizing the importance of local governments and communities in advancing intersections between the SFDRR, SDGs and the Paris Climate Agreement, the Philippine government, private sector, academia and civil Science Technology National Resilience Council (Philippines) Source: Antonia Loyzaga
  63. 63. 30 innovations for DRR • Jointly published in May 2019 and launched at the Global Platform for DRR by the APRU Multi-hazards program, Tohoku University, UNU, Keio University, University of Tokyo and CWS Japan • Collects 30 innovations (14 products / 16 approaches) to identify the most important, suitable, and innovative tools • Includes a survey result on the innovations considered most effective and useful 30 INNOVATIONS for DRR PRODUCTS APPROACHES 1 GIS and remote sensing 9 Seismic micro zonation 1 Community-based disaster risk reduction/management 9 Terminologies of resilience and vulnerability (R&V) 2 Drones 10 Earthquake early warning for high speed train 2 Hyogo Framework for Action 10 Post disaster needs assessment 3 Social Networking services (SNS) 11 Doppler radar 3 Hazard mapping 11 Transnational initiative on resilient cities 4 Concrete and steel: building material and infrastructure 12 Disaster resilient material 4 National Platforms fo r Disaster Risk Reduction 12 Mobile payment: a tool for accessing distribution/funds after a disaster 5 Disaster risk insurance 13 Rainwater harvesting 5 Safe schools and hospitals 13 A dollar for DRR saves seven dollars in disaster response/recovery 6 Disaster prevention radio (Bosai musen) and telemetry system 14 Electricity resistant survey 6 Assessments and index approach: vulnerability assessment, resilient index, sustainability 14 Traditional practices and evacuation behaviors 7 School cum cyclone shelter 7 Crowdsourcing 15 Indigenous DRR technology 8 Seismic code 8 Sphere standard 16 River engineering
  64. 64. Top 10 innovations Further analysis and survey result are in: Disaster risk reduction andinnovations (Progress in Disaster Science) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S259006171930033X Innovations 1 Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction (CBDRR) (A) 2 Hazard mapping (A) 3 Remote sensing and GIS (P) 4 Assessments and index approach: vulnerability assessment, resilient index, sustainability (A) 5 Disaster risk insurance (P) 6 National platforms for Disaster Risk Reduction (A) 7 Social Networking Service (SNS) (P) 8 Drones (P) 8 Disaster resilient material (P) 10 Indigenous DRR technology (A) 10 Crowdsourcing (A) 30 innovations linking DRR with SDGs • Jointly published by the APRU Multi-hazards program, Tohoku University, UNU, Keio University, University of Tokyo and CWS Japan • DRR innovations by 10 sectors: Emergency response, Health, Gender, Water, Children, Education, Agriculture, Early warning, Disability, Livelihood • Highlighted the link between DRR and SDGs https://www.preventionweb.net/publications/view/70713
  65. 65. Top 10 innovations Top 10 Innovations Sector 1 Ecosystem-based DRR Livelihood 2 Integrated water resources management Waer 3 Earthquake guard: EQ early warning system Early warning 4 A nexus approach toward climate change, food security, and livelihoods Livelihood 5 Nationalized cluster coordination mechanism Emergency response 6 Green infrastructure Water 7 Mobile clinics Health 8 My timeline: optimizing emergency evacuation per household Emergency response 9 Technical vocational education and training Education 10 Disability-inclusive DRR Disability Strengthening science technology academia community: Making research more meaningful • Recognize both natural and social science • Link technology more affordable and usable • From disciplinary to multi / trans disciplinary approaches • From interest based to demand based • From product based to process based • Research Training Action Linkage
  66. 66. Citizen science Technological intervention for Inundation flooding: Water Level Measurement Challenges: - Short duration heavy rainfall - Non uniform inundation flooding Copyright 2018 FUJITSU LIMITED ( ( ( ) ( : water level Simple smartphone technology E 8A 2 102 1 . 1E 3A 0 8 A 1E 3A 0 8 0 A 1E AE 3 A 8 3 3 D3A C 21 Urban water management: Citizen science and involvement (SMART WATER SOLUTION: https://smartwatersolution.org )
  67. 67. Urban water management: Awareness and innovation • Innovation in water management through appliances and online monitoring • Tap aerator (increase the appearance of water flow) • Eco-tap / eco-brake • Online monitoring though mobile phone • Entrepreneur mindset and ecosystem : incubation hub (government – academic – enterprise linkage) Sciencepreunership: Science based entrepreunership How to bring Youth and Young Professionals to solve local problems and achieve the targets of SDGs? Resilience Innovation Knowledge Academy (RIKA) www.rikaindia.com
  68. 68. Government role is to develop the entrepreneurship ecosystem Academia role is to establish incubator in universities with partnership with government, private, civil societies Sciencepreuner (Scientist + Entrepreneur) bring research into the core of disaster management activities of the private sector and policy making Research Innovation Knowledge Private Sector Policy Science and Technology Private Sector Private Sector currently engages in Response, PPP & BCP Innovations in Private Sector is limited to products Participation of private sector is limited to large and medium enterprises The S&T mostly limited to university networks. Resilience Innovation Knowledge Academy Incubator Approach • Working closely with the universities • The repository of students and faculty research can be accessed, customized, scaled, repackaged and presented for possible funding and also for global visibility. • The incubator will support “Start to Scale” support for socio- economic and technology entrepreneurship and facilitates the conversion of research activity into entrepreneurial ventures.
  69. 69. DRR sector needs a major shift in Asia • DRR as public goods • EWS is a good public good • Resilient infra as a good public good • Disaster relief as a bad public good • Open science policy • [open, accessible, efficient, democratic, and transparent] Source: UNESCO 2019 Open Science Components Open source Open data Open innovation Citizen science Crowd funding Society 5.0 Dynamic evolution and inter-connectedness (Infrastructure and Intra- structures)
  70. 70. Sendai Framework Sciencepreunership Incubation Implementaiton technology Process technology Tranferable Indigenous Knowledge Open science Open Data Young professionals Society 5.0 Citizen science Innovation Product versus process Science advice to government Science link to people Inclusiveness Digital divide Investment in science Demand based science Multi-disciplinary science Meaningful research
  71. 71. Urban-Rural linkages & resilience building Vibhas Sukhwani PhD Candidate Graduate School of Media & Governance, Keio University , Japan Aug 20, 2021 Introductory Course on Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability Global trends in urbanisation In 1950, one-third of the world’s population lived in cities; today the number has already reached more than one-half, and in 2050 city dwellers are expected to account for more than two-thirds of the world’s population. Urban and Rural population growth (1950-2050) Asia, Africa will have a greater share of urban population over the next 30 years
  72. 72. Global Urban Population Cities take up 2% of the space but are responsible for: 1976: 37.9 % 1996: 45.1 % 2016: 54.5 % 70 % of global economy 60 % of energy consumption 70 % of carbon emissions 70 % of waste Source: Habitat III United Nations Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development
  73. 73. People Natural Resources Goods Finances Information Culture Waste & Pollution Urban Areas Rural Areas Interdependencies Underlining Urban-Rural linkages What are Urban-Rural linkages? • A basic definition of urban-rural linkages is that they consist of flows (of goods, people, information, finance, waste, information, social relations) across space, linking rural and urban areas. • Urban and rural areas have different and often complementary assets which are integrated through a broad set of linkages. VERY RURAL RURAL SMALL TOWN PERI-URBAN VERY-URBAN (METROPOLITAN AREAS) URBAN Spatial linkages Sectoral linkages The Urban-Rural Continuum
  74. 74. World Population Growth Trends 1830 A.D. - 1 Billion : 3 Billion years 1930 A.D. - 2 Billion : After 100 years 1960 A.D. - 3 Billion : After 30 Years 1975 A.D. - 4 Billion : After 15 Years 1986 A.D. - 5 Billion : After 11 Years 2012 A.D. - 7 Billion Power of Doubling? Every second, the total population of world cities grows by 2 people Source: Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2015); Mariani, Luisana. "Urban Resilience Hub". urbanresiliencehub.org. Retrieved 2018-04-04. The first 30 years of this century will see more habitat and farmland converted for urban use than throughout the whole history 828 Million people live in slums. Every year, 6 million more join them. Cities Produce three- quarters of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions More than 3 million people in cities die each year due to air pollution Every day another 1,400 cars join the streets of Indian capital Indian capital New Delhi, ranked the most polluted in the world for PM 2.5 fine particles by the WHO By 2030, China’s coastline from Hangzhou to near Shenyang will be one continuous urban sprawl stretching 1100 miles Thirteen of the most populated cities in the world are coastal trading hubs that are vital in global supply chains. Internal climate migrants are rapidly becoming the human face of climate change. Without major new defences or cuts in carbon emissions, the global cost of flooding in cities could rise from $6bn a year in 2005 to $1 trillion in 2050 US cities average eight more summer days above 32 ⁰C than the countryside around them. 18 out of the 20 biggest cities in the world and 88% of the global population are in the northern hemisphere where temperatures are rising fastest According to UN-Habitat, approximately one third of the urban population in the developing world resides in slum communities. By 2030, global demand for energy and water is expected to grow by 40 and 50 percent respectively. It is estimated that 200 million people worldwide live along the coastlines less than 5 metres above sea level. Up to 77 million urban residents could fall back into poverty by 2030 in a likely scenario of high climate impacts and inequitable economic growth. KEY FACTS
  75. 75. ➢ Urban and rural areas often meet their water demands from shared stock of finite water resources, which are mostly outside the city boundaries. ➢ Water reallocation from rural to urban regions has become a common strategy to meet the growing demands in urban areas (Garrick et al. 2019). ➢ One-third of world’s surface-water dependent cities are already vulnerable due to competition with agricultural users (Padowski and Gorelick 2014). Urban-Rural Water Linkages Urban-Rural Water-Energy-Food Nexus
  76. 76. Information Source: IRENA 2015; Stephan et al. 2018 WEF nexus refers to the intricate relationships and trade-offs between these tightly linked systems 70% of global freshwater used by agriculture sector 30% of world energy consumed by food sector 15% of global freshwater withdrawals for energy production Climate Change Population Growth Current Resource Shortfalls +55% by 2050 +80% by 2050 +60% by 2050 844 million people lack access to safe drinking water (WHO, 2017) 1.1 billion people lack access to energy (IEA, 2017) 815 million people do not have secure access to food (FAO, 2017) 9.8 billion by 2050 Water-Energy-Food-Nexus Perspective Urban-rural linkages have gained greater prominence over the past decade in international development discourse and has emerged as one of the core principles of sustainable development in the global development framework.
  77. 77. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS In September 2015, world leaders adopted the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. While the SDGs are not legally binding, governments are expected to take ownership and establish national frameworks for their achievement. In 2015, building on previous work, UN-Habitat and development partners defined 10 entry points to Urban-Rural Linkages. i. Spatial flows of products, services and information/expertise between urban and rural areas; ii. Mobility and migration between urban and rural areas; iii. Food security systems and a “sustainability chain” for all; iv. Rural urbanization: the development of small and intermediate towns; v. The urban–rural continuum in the face of conflicts and disasters; vi. Reducing environmental impacts in urban- rural convergences; vii. Regional and territorial planning for integrated urban and rural development; viii. Enhancing legislation, governance and capacity; ix. Partnerships between urban and rural areas; and x. Inclusive investment and finance in both urban and rural areas. The New Urban Agenda UN-Habitat 2017
  78. 78. Urban-Rural settings Reciprocal and repetitive flows of people, goods, services, money and environmental services takes place between specific rural and urban locations. URBAN AREA RURAL RURAL RURAL RURAL FOOD WATER TECHNOLOGY FINISHED GOODS LABOUR RAW MATERIAL EMPLOYMENT FINANCES Infrastructure linkages Economic linkages Social linkages Institutional linkages Environmental linkages CITY Food Energy Goods Inputs Outputs Recycled Recycled Organic Waste Inorganic Waste Organic Wastes (Landfill, Sea dumping) Emissions (CO2, SO2)) Inorganic Wastes (Landfill) A model to facilitate the description and analysis of the flows of the materials and energy within cities Urban Metabolism
  79. 79. Cities use resources from a much wider area, for building materials, energy, food, disposal of waste, pollution. This larger area can be considered the urban ecological footprint. An urban ‘ecological footprint’ is simply the total amount of the earth's surface needed to support a given city's level of consumption and absorb its waste products Urban Ecological Footprint Reciprocal and repetitive flows of people, goods, services, money and environmental services takes place between specific rural and urban locations. URBAN AREA RURAL RURAL RURAL RURAL FOOD WATER TECHNOLOGY FINISHED GOODS LABOUR RAW MATERIAL EMPLOYMENT FINANCES Infrastructure linkages Economic linkages Social linkages Institutional linkages Environmental linkages Regional perspective approach Urban-Rural settings
  80. 80. 8 geographical regions in Japan ‘Region’ • Any portion of earth’s surface where physical conditions are homogeneous can be considered as a Region in geographic sense, ranging from a single feature to multiple, depending on the criteria used for delineation. • For example: agriculture region, resource region, city region, planning region, industrial region, backward region etc. • In simple words, it can be referred to as a territorial area of similar characteristics, which is bigger than local area and smaller than the country/nation.
  81. 81. A territorial area characterized by high frequency of intra-regional economic interaction, such as intra-regional trade in goods and services, labour commuting, and household shopping. Functional Region Regional Planning builds on the orderly and systematic anticipation of the future of a region. It is the science of efficient placement of land use activities, infrastructure, and settlement growth across a larger area of land than an individual city or town. What is Regional Planning?
  82. 82. i) A Model of Agricultural Land Use (1826) ii) Central place theory (1933) iii) Perroux’s Growth Pole Theory/Model (1955) Regional Planning Theories Land use: a function of transport costs to markets and the farmer’s land rent. A Model of Agricultural Land Use (1826) The Von Thunen model of agricultural land use was created by farmer and amateur economist J.H. Von Thunen (1783-1850) in 1826. It shows how market processes determined land use in different geographical locations. 1 2 3 4 Central City Intensive Farming and Dairying Forestry Increasing extensive field crops Ranching, Animal Products
  83. 83. Central Place Theory (CPT) is an attempt to explain the spatial arrangement, size, and number of settlements. The theory was originally published in 1933 by a German geographer Walter Christaller. The theory consists of two basic concepts: • Threshold-- the minimum population that is required to bring about the provision of certain good or services • Range-- the average maximum distance people will travel to purchase goods and services Central Place Theory (1933) Threshold Range Perroux Growth Pole Theory (1955) • ‘Growth Pole’ – concept introduced by Francis Perroux (a French Regional Economist) Growth Pole: A central location of economic activity • A point where economic growth starts and spreads to surrounding areas • An urban location where economic activity ignites (cause) growth and better quality of life in the urban periphery
  84. 84. Perroux Growth Pole Theory ▪ The core idea of the growth poles theory is that economic development, or growth, is not uniform over an entire region, but instead takes place around a specific pole ▪ This pole is often characterized by a key industry around which linked industries develop, mainly through direct and indirect effects ▪ The expansion of this key industry implies the expansion of output, employment, related investments, as well as new technologies and new industrial sectors The Fifth Basic Environment Plan of the Government of Japan (2018) highlighted the concept of Regional Circular and Ecological Sphere (Regional- CES) as key to promote the developmentof sustainablesocieties Goal: Decentralized and self reliant society ◆ Explore simultaneous solutions for economic, regional and international challenges ◆ Maximize sustainable use of regional resources ◆ Enriching and strengthening partnerships
  85. 85. ❖ Towards New Paradigms In Urban-Rural Linkages (2018-20) Fostering Innovations For Collective Resilience Through Multi-sector Engagements Co-funded by Japan Society for Promotion of Science (JSPS) and Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR) ❖ Building Urban-Rural Partnership for Resilience Future Promoting Regional Circular and Ecological Sphere Concept for Sustainable Resource Management and Collective Resilience of Urban and Rural Regions in Nagpur Metropolitan Area Funded by Institute for Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan Recent Research Projects in India Coordinated by Prof. Rajib Shaw’s Global Resilience and Innovation Laboratory (GRIL) • Nagpur, often called the heart of India, is at the geographical center of the country. • It is recognized as a major commercial and political centre of the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra. Nagpur City, Maharashtra State, India Projectedto bethe fifth fastest growingcity in the worldfrom2019-2035 withan averagegrowthof 8.41% (Oxford Economics,2018) City Population-2.498 million Metropolitan Area-1.037 million (Census 2011) Prominent power sector Nagpur District Nagpur City Nagpur Metropolitan Area Nagpur Metropolitan Area includes 721 villages spreading across an area of 3,567 km2. Selected under Smart Cities Mission Witnessing tremendous growth 13th largest urban agglomeration in India
  86. 86. Nagpur has recently experienced high climate variability Image: Urban flooding in Nagpur on 6th July, 2018 Image: : Heat Waves in Maharashtra Lack of awareness about rainwater harvesting and water conservation practices is worsening the dry summers High spatial and temporal variations in water availability Water stress situation is evident in rural areas as ground water levels are going down The highest recorded temperature in the city was 48 °C on 19th May 2015 Pench dam Totaladoh dam Pench River Water Utilization From Pench Project (1990-2019)
  87. 87. • Nagpur region has experienced acute water shortage in the recent years. Thermal Power Plants Pench Reservoir Command Area The decline in water availability in Pench reservoir has raised cross-sectoral concerns in Nagpur region, mainly for food and energy sector Google Earth Imagery of Nagpur Metropolitan Area Media Reports Field surveys in villages near the water sources areas Household surveys in rural areas to understand the urban linkages Origin- Destination Surveys to assess the flow of people Understandingtheflowof peoplein NMA
  88. 88. Visualizingthe Urban-Rural Linkages Administrative Map of India Nagpur State boundaries Maharashtra State COVID-19 situation in Nagpur, India Nagpur is one of the COVID- 19 hotspots in Central India Confirmed cases: 1753 (as of 7th July 2020) COVID-19 Monitoring Dashboard by Public Health Department , Government of Maharashtra Maharashtra is India’s worst- affected state from COVID-19 Latest Confirmed cases: 493,097 (as of 19 Aug 2021) 24 April 2021
  89. 89. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Number of confirmed COVID-19 cases 1st Outbreak 2nd Outbreak 3rd Outbreak • T est, Track & Monitoring strengthened • Epidemic Disease Act, 1897 invoked • Major public places closed down • Advisories issued at largescale • Special helpline numbers announced • Control rooms & Isolation wards set- up • City governments partners with local chemists and merchants for continued supply of essentials • Drones deployed for surveillance Panic buying and fake news circulation Wholesale market areas closed down Food supply chains critical • Wholesale market areas temporary closed for sanitization. Later reopened with restriction. • 24 open grounds designated to decentralize the food markets. • Shelter camps, Community kitchens to support the migrants. • Enhanced home delivery of food products. • Citizen friendly helplines and Mobile apps launched • T esting increased • 50 more suspects detected • Wholesale markets sealed • Most of designated open grounds closed down • Rise in panic Nation-wide lockdown announced City & district lockdown Nationwide lockdown was enforced in India since 24th March 2020 Initial Timeline of COVID-19 outbreak in Nagpur First confirmed case was detected on 12th March Strict transport limitations Intermediaries Wholesale Market Retail Market Urban residents Rural farmers Wholesale Markets Wholesale Markets During normal times During COVID-19 pandemic Nagpur city area Nagpur Metropolitan Area Traditional Food Supply Chain Rural Areas Designated Open Grounds Legend Need for resilience building
  90. 90. Summary: Key Points 1. Defining urban and rural problematic 2. Increasingly complex inter-relations 3. Limited knowledge of urban-rural dynamics 4. Discrete administration 5. Persisting sectoral approaches -Need to change the ‘urban’ and ‘rural’ lens -Acknowledging the growing interdependencies -Encouraging evidence-based research at grassroots-level -Enhancing policy coordination -Multi-stakeholder Engagement and Partnerships Stakeholders Private Sector Public Sector Communities Civil Society Organizations Media Academia Multi-Sectoral Approaches …the mutual interactions fordifferent sectors need to be investigated Multi-Level Governance …the national and local objectives need to be implemented at all levels of governance Multi- Stakeholder …actors should collaborate accordingto a common development agenda
  91. 91. Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability CERTIFICATE COURSE Large-scale disaster and the role of school Tomonori Ichinose, National University Corporation Miyagi University of Education, Professor Former Director of Center for Disaster Education & Future Design ichinose@staff.miyakyo-u.ac.jp
  92. 92. • We have just followed the teachers’ instruction!But… Tragedy of Okawa Elementary school News Flash 2019.10 The Sendai High Court ordered local authorities to pay around 1.4 billion ($13 million) in damages to the childrenʼs families, raising the amount of compensation by about 10 million from a lower court ruling. A high court ruled Thursday that the deaths of over 74 Okawa Elementary School students in tsunami following the March 2011 earthquake in Tohoku could have been prevented if Miyagi Prefecture and the city of Ishinomaki had updated its disaster contingency plan.
  93. 93. News Flash 2019.10 The authorities “failed to fulfill their obligation to revamp a risk management manual in line with the realities of Okawa Elementary School,” Judge Hiroshi Ogawa said, adding that “If the manual had designated a 20-meter-high location for evacuation” the deaths could have been prevented. A total of 74 pupils and 10 teachers and officials died in the tsunami that followed the magnitude 9 earthquake on March 11, 2011. The tsunami engulfed the students and teachers as they began evacuating to an area near a 7-meter-high riverbank. Okawa E.S 4KM
  94. 94. A Magnitude 9 Huge Earthquake and Big Tsunami Wave magnitude 9 The maximum seismic intensity was 7. The maximum height of Tsunami was reached 40M.
  95. 95. What do you think? • Do you think the city board of education, teachers are they guilty or not guilty? • Nobody can face and accept parents, their deep sadness, sorrow. • We need to updated disaster preparedness plan for creating disaster resilient school.
  96. 96. Condition of the children evacuate from the disaster-stricken area • The scale of the earthquake was extremely large as the number of fatalities is 15,892 and the number of missing people is 2,539 (by Japanese Police office March 2019). • Loss of life : Total 522 students and teachers(plus number of people whose safety is unknown: 236 students), the number of damaged school buildings is 754. • Children evacuated from the disaster-stricken area (25,516), Fukushima radiation contamination area (almost 12,000). • Orphan and children left after their parents' death (total 1,698), • The Children of ethnic minorities/Children of special needs (almost 300) Accident occurred at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant
  97. 97. Collapse of regional communities and schools Collapse of regional communities Collapse of schools (education) • Collapse of school buildings (they cannot be used due to the earthquake or tsunami). They are being used as shelters. • Decrease in children and students (fled to other areas outside the school areas, changed schools, deaths) • Suffering of teachers (deaths, parents or families became victims, damage to housing) Collapse of the roles of schools Schools are places for students and teachers to gather as the center of the regional communities Schools located in the safety area near the affected area. Schools located between the affected area and safe area that accommodated many evacuees. Schools directly affected and isolated by the disaster. • They acted as a relay point for relief goods. • They became lodgings and bases of operation. •It is difficult for school staff members to operate shelters. • Mutually supportive relationships are key to the smooth operation of the shelter. • Local residents were evacuated to the school. Stocked relief supplies were insufficient. • People were rescued by professionals after several hours.
  98. 98. Category 1: Schools directly damaged by the disaster • Although evacuation from the tsunami was announced over the community wireless system after the earthquake, people were not able to hear what was being said. • Mobile telephone lines were tied up immediately after the quake and no wireless station was available. There was no communication method to seek assistance from police, fire stations, or the school board, so the people became isolated. • When the floods came, citizens witnessed tragedy firsthand. Their houses or family members were swept away by the tide, and teachers made painstaking efforts to keep such dreadful scenes away from children’s eyes. • Local residents were evacuated to the school. Relief supplies, including blankets, emergency food, drinking water, and flashlights, were insufficient, and therefore, they were not supplied to all evacuees. Category 1: Schools directly damaged by the disaster • It snowed, but no heating was available. Evacuees used newspaper and curtains to ward off the cold. • They had to fight against not only submerging in the water and isolation, but also against secondary disasters, including burning, floating debris and forest fires. • While they were waiting for rescue, evacuees panicked in the psychology of crowds (in fear of explosions of gas holder and electric leakage). • The toilets could not be flushed, so establishing temporary toilets (e.g., using water from swimming pools) became essential.
  99. 99. Category 2: Schools that became shelters • A contingency planning manual states that a shelter shall be established by persons dispatched from a city office when a disaster strikes. However, no transportation was available, no one was dispatched to support the shelter, and the school had to accommodate a number of evacuees on its own. • It was difficult for school staff members to operate shelters. Whether evacuees, (i.e., the members of local residents’ organizations, including residents' association and fire-fighting teams) could voluntarily operate them determined the quality of the operation. • The amount of stocked relief supplies, including blankets, emergency food, and drinking water, was not nearly enough compared with the number of evacuees. Whether stores and residents in the vicinity of the school worked together to provide food, blankets, etc., also determined the environment of the shelter. Category 2: Schools that became shelters • Because it was too cold in shelters with no heating equipment, some shelters asked evacuees to stay in cars parked in schoolyards to ward off the cold. • Measures to prevent the spread of infection were required when a number of residents stayed together in school buildings. • Mutually supportive relationships were key to the smooth operation of shelters. Examples include the help of local residents to reestablish school systems and the support of residents by the pupils of the junior and senior high schools that were used as shelters. • Accommodating all local residents included accommodating people with mental diseases and the homeless. In addition, precautions against crime were required. • Some schools in the heart of a city or along railroad lines had to accommodate as many as 2,500 evacuees.
  100. 100. Category 3: Schools that did not act as shelters • Some schools outside the disaster-stricken area had no damage and did not need to provide shelter. They assumed the function of a relay point for relief goods at first. Later, after the Self-Defense Forces had arrived, they became lodging areas and bases of operation. • Corpses were transported to the schools that served no other function and were vacant, and many of them had to be used as mortuaries.
  101. 101. Schools located in the safety area near the affected area. Schools located between the affected area and safety area. Schools directly affected and isolated by the disaster. • After the disaster, they played a core role in consolidation of disaster affected school. • School buildings and school grounds were used as temporary housing for a long period of time after the disaster. • School districts were obsolete, and schools were abolished some time after the disaster. Children moved to the safety zone School combination
  102. 102. https://www.nippon.com/ja/japan- data/h00954/ Schools how to work together with local community • During the earthquake, the relationship between communities and schools played an important role in establishing and operating evacuation centers. From the experience, local residents have gained an awareness of the school as an imperative part of a local community. • Continuation of DRR practices resulted in a deepened, mutual understanding and communication among children and students, parents, community residents, and social education facilities, such as community centers.
  103. 103. • Hashikami Junior High School was famous for the DRR before the East Japan Earthquake. Previously, drills were carried out following the themes of "Self-Help," "Mutual-Help," and "Public-Help” in three-year cycles. • With the cooperation of local neighborhood associations “Hashikami Junior High School District Disaster Preparedness Promotion Committee” was newly established and the school carried out evacuation drills jointly with neighborhoods. • Oya Primary School (215 students), in which the first floor was flooded by the tsunami, performed a joint disaster drill with a kindergarten and junior high school. 30 local residents living in temporary housing in the schoolyard also participated in this drill, walking to the hinterland 15 minutes away from the school with Oya students. • After the earthquake and tsunami in 2011, in collaboration with the local society, maintenance on the evacuation route to the hill behind the school was begun. The forest behind Kitakami Elementary School was maintained through cooperation with the Miyagi Forest Instructor Association. The hill became a place of disaster reduction and disaster prevention. HASHIKAMI JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL Disaster Stricken Area Experient ial Learning Program Experient ial Exposure to the Realities Start Inquiry Based Learning
  104. 104. Proposal to the Local Communi ty Dialogue to the Local Communi ty Hand down the Lessons to Elementa ry School Kids Promote to Learn with ASPnet Schools HASHIKAMI JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL TRANSFORMATIVE ACTION Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 - 2030 • 36. (a) Civil society, volunteers, organized voluntary work organizations and community-based organizations to participate, in collaboration with public institutions, to, inter alia, provide specific knowledge and pragmatic guidance in the context of the development and implementation of normative frameworks, standards and plans for disaster risk reduction; • engage in the implementation of local, national, regional and global plans and strategies; • contribute to and support public awareness, a culture of prevention and education on disaster risk; and advocate for resilient communities and an inclusive and all-of-society disaster risk management that strengthen synergies across groups, as appropriate.
  105. 105. Consortium System to create Sustainable District By the promotion of ministry of Education • In the financial year of 2014, MUE was admitted to obtain a UNESCO activities assistance grant by the Ministry of Education in JAPAN (MEXT) to formalize a consortium in the Tohoku region. • MUE will obtain this fund until the financial year 2016. This consortium project will be formalized following human resources; ①Miyagi University of Education ②UNESCO Associated schools (ESD schools) in the Tohoku ③Local board of education ④Local federation association of UNESCO ⑤Sendai ESD-RCE promotion committee consisting of the City Environment Bureau, NPOs and companies. DRR Model School in Vietnam Greater Sendai RCE Sendai/Kesennuma/ Ohsaki/Shiroishi City Miyagi prefecture etc, UNESCO Association ・Sendai UNESCO ・Kesennuma UNESCO ・Shiroishi UNESCO Board of Education ・Kesennuma City BOE ・Tadami Town BOE ・Daisen City BOE etc. UNESCO School in Tohoku(87schools) ・Miyagi 76(Kesennuma・Ohsaki etc.) ・Akita 3/Iwate 1/Yamagata 4/Fukushima 3 Miyagi University of Education ・EIU Research Center ・EE Research Center ・Education Recovery Center Enterprise ・AXA Insurance co. ・UNY Group Holdings ・Tohoku Chamber of Environment Advisory Member ・UN University ・NFUAJ ・ACCU ESD Coodinator Region University Administration School Non-formal Education Yagiyama Zoo Non-UNESCO School Aomori, Akita, Iwate Korean UNESCO School China ESD Committee UNESCO School in Japan Other ESD Consortium advocacy Exchange ESD/UNESCO School Tohoku Consortium Collaboration Structure of ESD Tohoku Consortium Exchange Exchange Exchange
  106. 106. United Nations Universityʼs Regional Center of Expertise (RCEs) • One effective collaborative network to promote ESD regionally is United Nations University’s Regional Center of Expertise (RCEs). • Greater Sendai RCEs supports teachers who are engaged in DRR education within the framework of ESD. Local universities, board of education and other private sector organizations provide a variety of resources to the practicing educators. • Greater Sendai regions contribute to filling the gap between the traditional disaster education and education for SDGs in the local school system. • Sendai Global Seminar Executive Committees • United Nations University • Miyagi University of Education • Kahoku Shinpo Newspaper • Japan International Cooperation Agency Tohoku branch • Ministry of Environment • Miyagi Prefectural Government • Sendai City Government Local Governm ent Business Media NPO Citizens Universiti es Schools Greater Sendai ESD/RCE Steering Committee MUE ESD/RCE Promotion Committee Sendai Area ESD(City of Trees (Mori-no- Miyako) Citizens Environmental Education Learning Promoting Forum) Osaki & Tajiri Area RCE (Tajiri Town General Branch Office Japanese Association for Wild Geese Protection Board of Education) Kesennuma Area RCE (Kesennuma City, Kesennuma Board of Education, Omose Elementary School) Shiroishi & Hichigashuku RCE Greater Sendai RCE is the initial 7 of RCE funded 2005
  107. 107. Conclusion • Continuation of these practices resulted in a deepened, mutual understanding and communication among children and students, parents, community residents, and social education facilities, such as community centers. • Train teachers who have a disaster prevention mind. • Establish the disaster prevention program as part of the curriculum for training teachers. • The concept of the sustainable development of society proposed by the UNESCO provides important suggestions for relationship-building between local communities and schools. It is necessary, across the region, to strengthen the ability to fight against disasters, and contribute to the restoration of local communities through the activities of Education for Sustainable Development (ESD). • https://www.sankei.com/photo/story /news/171120/sty1711200002-n1.html
  108. 108. • 緑の防潮堤」の イメージ(資料:国 ⼟交通省東北地⽅ 整備局) Along with seacoast 400KM https://www.nacsj.or.jp/archive/2013/07 /1221/
  109. 109. Address; Tomonori ICHINOSE 〒980-0845 149,AramakaiazaAob a,Aobaku,Sendai TEL :+81-22-214- 3382 FAX :+81- 22-214-3382 MAIL: ichinose@staff.miyak yo-u.ac.jp • Member of International Network of JTES & DCSE at UNESCO Chair of Daugavpils University • Planning/Implementing academic research • UNESCO Chair at Daugavpils University Apr 20, 2021 - Present • Member of UNESCO Associated Schools Network, Collaborative Action Research on the Role of Schools in Achieving SDGs in Asia-Pacific • Planning/Implementing academic research • UNESCO Bangkok Asia-Pacific Regional Bureau for Education Jan, 2021 - Present • Member of ASPnet TEI Change Initiative • Planning, management, etc. • UNESCO, Unit for the UNESCO Associated Schools Network, Division for Peace and Sustainable Development Nov, 2020 - Present • Editorial Board member, Asia Pacific Journal of Educators and Education • Peer review • University Sains Malaysia Jan 1, 2019 - Present • External Examiner of Master of Arts in Education for Sustainability • Review, evaluation • The Education University of Hong Kong Dec, 2018 - Present • Board member of ProSPER.Net • Planning, management, etc. • United Nation University Jul, 2018 - Present • Editorial Board member, Journal of Teacher Education for Sustainability (JTES), Latvia • Peer review • UNESCO Chair at Daugavpils University Jan, 2018 - Present • Deputy Director of Asian Pacific Institution of Education for Sustainable Development, China • Planning, management, etc. • China National Working Committee of Education for Sustainable Development Jun 1, 2014 - Present East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami Evacuation, Communication, Education and Volunteerism By Rajib Shaw , Yukiko Takeuchi Education for Sustainable Development and Disaster Risk Reduction Editors: Shaw, Rajib, Oikawa, Yukihiko (Eds.)
  110. 110. Climate Change Impacts on Hydroclimatic Extremes: Evidences from Modeling Studies Dr. Sangam Shrestha Asian Institute of Technology CERTIFICATE COURSE Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability 1 Lecture Outline Hydroclimatic extremes: facing the facts Section A Hydroclimatic extremes under climate change: case studies Section B Q & A Section C 2
  111. 111. Deadly Floods in Germany (Start data: 12 July 2021) 4
  112. 112. Subway Floods in Zhengzhou, China July 20, 2021 Heat Waves in Europe (August 13, 2021) 7
  113. 113. Thailand tackles worst drought in 40 years (Feb, 2020) • Thailand has been hit with what may be its worst drought in 40 years, pummelling sugar production in one of the world's biggest exporters of the sweetener. • Sugar output may tumble about 30% to 9 million-10 million tonnes, while cane output is forecast to fall below 90 million tonnes from about 130 million in the previous season because of the dry weather, according to an industry body. (Bangkok Post) Cracks in a rice field show the effects of severe drought in Ayutthaya's Nakhon Luang district. The drought is the worst in decades. 8 Disasters triggered by natural hazards (1960 ꟷ 2019) Source: World Disasters Report, 2020 (IFRC) 9
  114. 114. Around the globe: the combined land and ocean-surface temperature was 0.93 of a degree C above the 20th-century average of 15.8 degrees C, making it the hottest July since records began 142 years ago. It was 0.01 of a degree C higher than the previous record set in July 2016, which was then tied in 2019 and 2020. 10 10 disasters that affected the most people in 2019 Source: World Disasters Report, 2020 (IFRC) 11
  115. 115. Total deaths by disasters type (2000-2019) 12 Financial impacts of disaster losses (1980sꟷ2010s) • Source: World Disasters Report, 2020 (IFRC) 13 1US$ = 0.91CHF
  116. 116. Extreme events and climate change • Heat: It is virtually certain that “there has been increases in the intensity and duration of heatwaves and in the number of heatwave days at the global scale”. • Heavy rainfall: The frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events “have likely increased at the global scale over a majority of land regions”. • Flooding: Models project “a larger fraction of land areas to be affected by an increase in river floods than by a decrease in river floods”. • Drought: “More regions are affected by increases in agricultural and ecological droughts with increasing global warming”. • Tropical cyclones: “It is likely that the proportion of major TC intensities and the frequency of rapid intensification events have both increased globally over the past 40 years.” • Compound events: “Compound hot and dry conditions become more probable in nearly all land regions as global mean temperature increases.” 15
  117. 117. Extreme events and climate change (Projection) • Source: IPCC (2021) 16 Extreme events and climate change (Projection) • Source: IPCC (2021) 17
  118. 118. Challenges • How to detect and attribute hydrometeorological extremes to climate change? • How to predict the hydrometeorological extremes under climate change? • What are the socio-economic impacts from hydrometeorological extremes (space and time)? • How to increase the resilience of infrastructure and society in response to hydrometeorological extremes caused by climate change? 18 Hydroclimatic extremes under climate change: case studies • Budhi Gandaki River Basin (Nepal) • Songkhram River Basin (Thailand) • Upper Citarum River Basin (Indonesia) 19
  119. 119. Study Basins • Budhi Gandaki River Basin (Nepal) [Budhi Gandaki Hydropower Project (Storage, 1200MW)] • Songkhram River Basin (Thailand) [Ramsar site, rich in biodiversity] • Upper Citarum River Basin (Indonesia) [Agriculture, water supply, fishery, industry, and electricity (3HPPs)] 20 21 Songkhram River (Thailand) Upper Citarum River (Indonesia) Budhi Gandaki River (Thailand) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Discharge (m3/s) 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Discharge (m3/s) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Discharge (m3/s) Basin Wet season Dry season Songkhram River (Thailand) May to October Nov. to April Budhi Gandaki River (Thailand) June to August Sep to May Upper Citarum River (Indonesia) Nov. to March April to October
  120. 120. Study Basins Country Basin Basin Centroid Elevation (m) Area (km2 ) Rainfall (mm/yr) Tavg (°C) Lat Lon Min. Max. Nepal Budhi Gandaki 28.6 84.8 419 7,979 3,848 948 16 Thailand Songkhram 17.6 103.7 52 676 12,885 1,732 27 Indonesia Upper Citarum -7 107.7 634 2,598 1,816 2,230 23 22 Methodology 23 Schematic of hydrologic processes simulated in SWAT
  121. 121. 24 Budhi Gandaki (NPL) Songkhram (TH) Upper Citarum (ID) Hydrological extremes • Q5: The flow in cubic metres per second which was equalled or exceeded for 5% of the specified term (high flow). • Q95: The flow in cubic metres per second which was equalled or exceeded for 95% of the flow record (low flow) Daily flow (m 3 /s) Q95 Q5 25 The flow-duration curve is a cumulative frequency curve that shows the percent of time specified discharges were equaled or exceeded during a given period.
  122. 122. Data Used • ASTER GDEM: Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Model • ESA: European Space Agency • LDD: Land Development Department, Thailand • SOTER: Soil and Terrain • BCC: Beijing Climate Center, CCCma: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis • CMCC: Centro Euromediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici • CNRM-CERFACS: Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques — Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique • NCC: Norwegian Climate Centre • RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway. SN Data Time Period/ Frequency Source/Developer 1 Topography ASTER (30m x 30m) 2000–2013 https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/ 2 Land cover map ESA (300 × 300) 1992–2012 https://maps.elie.ucl.ac.be/CCI/ LDD (Vector data) 2002–2007 LDD 3 Soil map SOTER (1:1,000,000) 1980–1990 https://www.isric.org/explore/soter FAO (1:5,000,000) 1971–1981 http://www.fao.org/soils- portal/data-hub/en/ 4 Hydro-meteorological data Precipitation 1975–2015/Daily Relevant national authorities Temperature 1975–2015/Daily Discharge 1992–2014/Daily 5 GCMs data RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 • BCC-bcc-csm1-1-m 1974–2100/Daily BCC, China • (BCC-CSM1.1(m)) • CCCma-CanESM2 1974–2100/Daily CCCma, Canada • (CanESM2) • CMCC-CMCC-CMS 1974–2100/Daily CMCC, Italy • (CMCC-CMS) • CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 (CNRM-CM5) 1974–2100/Daily CNRM-CERFACS, France • NCC-NorESM1-M 1974–2100/Daily NCC, Norway • (NorESM1-M) 26 Future projected annual average temperature (Tavg) 17.2 17.5 18.5 19.9 19.3 22.3 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Avg. Temperature (ºC) 16.0 27.4 27.7 28.3 29.5 28.9 31.1 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Avg. Temperature (ºC) 26.6 24.2 24.6 24.7 26.2 24.9 27.6 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Avg. Temperature (ºC) 23.1 B BL N RCP4.5 F RCP8.5 Songkhram (TH) Upper Citarum (ID) Budhi Gandaki (NPL) 27 • All the river basins are expected to be warmer in future with maximum of 6.3 ºC increment in annual average temperature in Budhi Gandaki River Basin (Nepal).
  123. 123. Future projected annual minimum & maximum temperature (Tmin & Tmax) Budhi Gandaki (NPL) Songkhram (TH) Upper Citarum (ID) 23.2 23.6 24.5 26.1 25.4 28.5 20 22 24 26 28 30 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Max. Temperature (ºC) 21.9 29.4 29.6 30.3 31.1 30.7 32.5 25 27 29 31 33 35 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Max. Temperature (ºC) 28.3 32.4 32.8 33.3 34.5 33.9 36.0 30 32 34 36 38 40 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Max. Temperature (ºC) 31.7 19.4 19.6 20.5 21.3 21.0 22.7 15 17 19 21 23 25 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Min. Temperature (ºC) 17.9 11.3 11.5 12.5 13.6 13.1 16.1 5 10 15 20 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Min. Temperature (ºC) 10.2 22.3 22.6 23.3 24.4 24.0 26.1 20 22 24 26 28 30 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Min. Temperature (ºC) 21.4 B BL N RCP4.5 F RCP8.5 28 • All the river basins are expected to be warmer in future with maximum 6.6 ºC increment in annual maximum and 5.9 ºC increment in annual minimum temperature, both at Budhi Gandaki River Basin (Nepal). Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin Projected future annual average rainfall 29 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Annual MAM JJA SON DJF Rainfall (mm) 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Annual MAM JJA SON DJF 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Annual MAM JJA SON DJF Rainfall (mm) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Annual MAM JJA SON DJF 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Annual MAM JJA SON DJF Rainfall (mm) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Annual MAM JJA SON DJF Budhi Gandaki (NPL) Upper Citarum (ID) Songkhram (TH) B BL N NF M MF F FF • Future annual rainfall is projected to have an increasing trend (up to 15 % increment) under climate change. • Wet season is expected to be wetter (max. 30% in Songkhram) in all the selected river basins under climate change. • Dry season is expected to be drier (max. -15% in Upper Citarum) except Songkhram river basin (max. 60% of increment) under climate change. RCP 4.5 Dry season Dry season RCP 8.5 Wet season Wet season Wet season Wet season RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
  124. 124. Hydrological Modeling 30 Basin Period NSE R2 RSR PBIAS (%) Budhi Gandaki C: 1999-2005 0.74 0.83 0.51 22.23 V: 2006-2008 0.77 0.8 0.48 16.18 Songkhram C: 1992-2005 0.79 0.83 0.45 10.04 V: 2008-2010 0.65 0.74 0.59 27.69 Upper Citarum C: 2002-2006 0.63 0.63 0.61 9.05 V: 2007-2008 0.61 0.62 0.63 -1.1 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Discharge (m3/s) Observed discharge Simulated discharge Budhi Gandaki (NPL) Calibration Validation 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Discharge (m3/s) Observed discharge Simulated discharge Calibration Validation 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Discharge (m3/s) Observed discharge Simulated discharge Calibration Validation Songkhram (TH) Upper Citarum (ID) 0 100 200 300 400 500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Discharge (m 3 /s) Future projected average monthly discharge 31 Budhi Gandaki (NPL) Upper Citarum (ID) Songkhram (TH) 0 100 200 300 400 500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 50 100 150 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Discharge (m3/s) 0 40 80 120 160 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Discharge (m3/s) B BL N NF M MF F FF • Wet season discharge is projected to increase in all the selected river basins (max. 100% in Songkhram river basin). • Dry season discharge is expected to increase in Budhi Gandaki River (NPL) (3 to 64%) and Songkhram River (TH) (10 to 81%) whereas reduction is expected in Upper Citarum River (ID) (-0.1 to -13%). Wet season RCP 4.5 Dry season Dry season RCP 8.5 Wet season Wet season Wet season RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
  125. 125. Future projected hydrological extremes (Q5 & Q95) 32 400 410 420 430 440 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Change in Q5 (m 3 /s) 25 27 29 31 33 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Change in Q95 (m 3 /s) 500 1000 1500 2000 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Change in Q5 (m 3 /s) 0 2 4 6 8 10 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Change in Q95 (m 3 /s) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Change in Q95 (m 3 /s) 150 160 170 180 190 200 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Change in Q5 (m 3 /s) Budhi Gandaki (NPL) Upper Citarum (ID) Songkhram (TH) • Both high (Q5) and low flows (Q95) are projected to increase in Budhi Gandaki River (max. Q5 = 43% and Q95 = 159%) and Songkhram River (max. Q5 = 4.6% and Q95 = 16%) under climate change. • In the Upper Citarum River, high flows (Q5) are expected to increase (max. 13.5%) whereas low flows (Q95) are expected to decrease (max. 23%) B BL N NF M MF F FF Q5 Q95 Q5 Q95 Q5 Q95 Implications 33 More water available (varies with location and time) Likely to cause more floods Likely to impact on infrastructure, society and environment
  126. 126. Anirban Mukhopadhyay anirbanatju@gmail.com AIT,DPMM Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for Sustainability - Geospatial Approach Remote Sensing REMOTE SENSING is the process of sensing and measuring objects from a distance without physical contact with them
  127. 127. Sensing 1.Scanning 2.Characterizing 3.Classification 4.Identification/ Quantification 5.Analysis SIX STAGES IN REMOTE SENSING Stage-1. Source of energy Stage-2. Transmission of EMR towards the Object Stage-3. Interaction of EMR with the Object Stage-4. Transmission of Interacted EMR towards the Sensor Stage-5. Recording of the Image by the Detector Stage-6. Analysis of the Imagery 3 1 2 4 5 (Film) 6 3 3 4
  128. 128. Types of RS system Active RS system Passive RS system Artificial Energy source Natural Energy source e.g. radar systems SAR e.g.sensors on satellites Landsat,SPOT
  129. 129. IMAGING SENSORS Sensors which provide output to create an image Eg : LISS I,LISS II, LISS III etc. output with NON IMAGING SENSORS Sensors which provide numerical respect to the quantum of radiation Eg: Radiometer ,Scatterometer etc.
  130. 130. Applications of Remote Sensing forest Coastal water mapping, soil/vegetation discrimination, classification, man-made feature identification Vegetation discrimination and health monitoring, man-made feature identification body Plant species identification, man-made feature identification Soil moisture monitoring, vegetation monitoring, water discrimination Vegetation moisture content monitoring Surface temperature, vegetation stress monitoring, soil moisture monitoring, cloud differentiation, volcanic monitoring Mineral and rock discrimination, vegetation moisture content ~40% of sunlight is reflected by clouds ~20% of sunlight is absorbed by the atmosphere ~40% of sunlight is absorbed by Earth’s surface
  131. 131. Positional registration In recent satellites more precise estimation of the position is obtained using the signals of GPS (Global Positioning System) satellites. 3. Positional registration DORIS system determines the position of TOPEX/Poseidon satellite orbit to within a few centimetres. The technique used (known as orbit determination), consists of locating a satellite in relation to about fifty ground control points on the Earth's surface.
  132. 132. 4. Oceanographic sampling for "sea truth" The strategy of collecting of samples is very important. The samples must span as wide range of data values as possible. Typically, transects across the gradients are used. 4. Oceanographic sampling for "sea truth" IoE 184 - The Basics of Satellite Oceanography. 3. Remote Sensing of the Sea Spatial resolution of the sensor is important as compared with spatial variability of the measured parameter, because the value measured within a point may not be representative of the average parameter within the whole pixel measured by the satellite. MODIS nLw(551) (W/m2/µm/sr) 04/13/2001 33.7 33.8 33.9 34.0 34.1 34.2 34.3 34.4 34.5 -119.8 -119.6 -119.4 -119.2 -119.0 -118.8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

×