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Climate Change Adaptation: Principle and Perspectives from Thailand, Supakorn Chinvanno

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This presentation was part of the ProSPER.Net Leadership Programme 2017 'Building Transformational Leadership Towards the SDGs'

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Climate Change Adaptation: Principle and Perspectives from Thailand, Supakorn Chinvanno

  1. 1. Climate Change Adaptation: Principle and some perspectives from Thailand Suppakorn Chinvanno Southeast Asia START Regional Center Chulalongkorn University SEA START RC copyright 2017
  2. 2. Climate Change Adaptation: Principle and some perspectives from Thailand • Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia • Climate change adaptation – What and Why • Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand • Climate change adaptation – Future research agenda SEA START RC copyright 2017
  3. 3. • Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia • Climate change adaptation – What and Why • Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand • Climate change adaptation – Future research agenda Climate Change Adaptation in Thailand: Concerns and some examples SEA START RC copyright 2017
  4. 4. Climate Weather Extreme weather event Climate change Climate variability Climate impact Climate threat Climate risk Vulnerability Be careful ! In many cases, these terms have been used in mixed and confusing meaning – often out of the context ”Climate” is weather conditions in a particular place or region which is characterized over period of time, i.e. 30-year period Climate change – Some confusions? Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia SEA START RC copyright 2017
  5. 5. • Confusion on “Climate” and “Change” - mixed up between climate VS weather / change VS variability • Over emphasize on the temperature increasing – global mean temperature • There are many ways to look at “change” Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia SEA START RC copyright 2017
  6. 6. • Climate change is not uniform across space and time – do NOT overlook multiple dimensions of climate change: • Magnitude – change in range of weather pattern • Frequency – change in return cycle of extreme weather event • Distribution of change over space and time • Geographical – e.g. area of hot area / distribution of weather parameters over geographical area • Temporal – e.g. length of season, onset – end of season, distribution of weather parameters over time Multiple dimensions of climate change Different areas / systems / sectors have different concern on future climate change Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia SEA START RC copyright 2017
  7. 7. Average maximum temperature Annual highest temperatureVS Example: Multiple dimensions of climate change - average VS extreme Different aspects of change bring different risks Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia SEA START RC copyright 2017
  8. 8. Example: Multiple dimensions of climate change – space and time Change in average maximum temperature Change in hot period over the year Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia SEA START RC copyright 2017
  9. 9. Future GHG Scenario Future climate Scenario Climate model - simulation Climate change = Visions of the future Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia SEA START RC copyright 2017
  10. 10. Example – simulation result – ECHAM4 A2: Average daily maximum temperature (oC) Example: Future climate projection for Southeast Asia Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia SEA START RC copyright 2017
  11. 11. Example – simulation result – ECHAM4 A2: Average annual maximum temperature (oC) Hottest day of the year Example: Future climate projection for Southeast Asia Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia SEA START RC copyright 2017
  12. 12. Example – simulation result – ECHAM4 A2: Number of hot days in a year (>=35 oC) Example: Future climate projection for Southeast Asia Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia SEA START RC copyright 2017
  13. 13. Example – simulation result – ECHAM4 A2: Average daily minimum temperature (oC) Example: Future climate projection for Southeast Asia Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia SEA START RC copyright 2017
  14. 14. Coolest day of the year Example – simulation result – ECHAM4 A2: Average annual minimum temperature (oC) Example: Future climate projection for Southeast Asia Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia SEA START RC copyright 2017
  15. 15. Example – simulation result – ECHAM4 A2: Number of cool day in a year (<=16 oC) Example: Future climate projection for Southeast Asia Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia SEA START RC copyright 2017
  16. 16. Example – simulation result – ECHAM4 A2: Change in annual precipitation compare to 1980’s (%) Example: Future climate projection for Southeast Asia Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia SEA START RC copyright 2017
  17. 17. Climate Change Adaptation in Thailand: Concerns and state of knowledge Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia SEA START RC copyright 2017
  18. 18. Future climate projection - climate scenario: • Climate scenario is only a plausible futures – NOT forecast • Need to use in climate context, NOT weather • Data from climate scenario is not “truth” – need to be interpreted with care – it indicates direction and magnitude of future change in a broad sense • Good and less good information, never perfect information • Uncertainty – need for multiple scenarios • New and/or improved method and technique for generating climate scenario is yet to come Future climate projection is NOT super long range weather forecast – it has to be used in the context of climate Challenge: Transforming data into information for risk assessment Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia SEA START RC copyright 2017
  19. 19. • Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia • Climate change adaptation – What and Why • Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand • Climate change adaptation – Future research agenda Climate Change Adaptation in Thailand: Concerns and some examples SEA START RC copyright 2017
  20. 20. Global warming Climate change Mitigation: Reduce global warming effect Adaptation: Increase climate resilience to future climate Low carbon society Climate-proof society Changes in season pattern Changes in rainfall distribution Changes in frequency & magnitude of extreme weather Note: Changes are not uniform Climate change adaptation – What and Why SEA START RC copyright 2017
  21. 21. 1970s-early 1980s  What are ecological limits to human development and growth?  How can we respond to climate change?  What sort of impacts can system sustain?  Will systems adapt automatically? Late 1980s  What will the impact be?  How much adaptation are society and ecosystems capable of?  How much can ability to adapt offset need to mitigate? 1990s  Is mitigation more important than adaptation for responding to climate change?  Mitigation and adaptation as alternatives to responding to climate change Late 1990s  How can policy support adaptation?  Who is vulnerable to climate change and why?  Climate change will occur – adaptation will be necessary  Close link between adaptation and development Early 2000s  What constitutes adaptive capacity?  How can adaptation be integrated into existing sustainable development plans?  What is needed to mainstream adaptation?  How can adaptation policy be designed? Schipper, E.L.F. (2006) ‘Conceptual history of adaptation to climate change under the UNFCCC’, Review of European Community and International Environmental law (RECIEL), vol 15, no 1, pp82-92 Adaptation thinking – an evolving subject Shifting from scientific subject to human security and policy planning Climate change adaptation – What and Why
  22. 22. Climate change adaptation … What is it about? • Having strategy and plan to move society to be more secure / resilience / robust to climate variability and change in the future • To be certain that existing policy and plan will not lead society to be under new threat in the future • To be certain that development plan will still be able to achieve its goal under future climate condition Sustainable development in new paradigm Human security – Resilience society – Robust economic system Climate change adaptation – What and Why SEA START RC copyright 2017
  23. 23. Time Size Weather / Climate variability Climate change Community Province / Landscape - watershed Country Extend vision into far future Strategy and plan to increase resilience of society and robustness of system/sector in long term under changing pressures Season - year Decade(s) Climate change adaptation – what is it about? Climate change adaptation as “Climate-wise development” Climate change adaptation – What and Why SEA START RC copyright 2017
  24. 24. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development strategy and plan Development plan Target & goal Climate change Alter development strategic direction Adjust development plan mobilization New idea / innovation in risk management SEA START RC copyright 2017 Development plan will achieve goal under new climate condition Society & economic system resilient and robust to future changes New factor in development planning Climate change adaptation – What and Why
  25. 25. Vulnerability AdaptationImpact Shifting from conventional approach – sequential assessment Future climate projection Future climate change impact analysis - sector Vulnerability analysis Adaptation options aim at solving future problem – maintain status quo Climate change Need not put climate change at initial stage, but formulate the assessment around the concern and context of community Climate change adaptation – What and Why SEA START RC copyright 2017
  26. 26. IPCC Assessment Report 5 proposes risk-based assessment approach Needs to be locally defined and assessed Climate change adaptation – What and Why SEA START RC copyright 2017
  27. 27. Mainstream climate change into community development strategy & plan • Linking current context with future – increase resilience against climate risk both NOW & FUTURE • Improve robustness of plan to cope with current climate threat in light of climate change Broaden context of climate change adaptation to development agenda Understand risk from holistic view of future Combine climate change and socio-economic change into consideration • Factor in climate change into development planning process along with other changes in society • Seek for better way to manage risk in light of climate change as part of development pathway Climate change adaptation – What and Why SEA START RC copyright 2017
  28. 28. Place specific – no generic adaptation Each place has specific risk profile - different condition / different preference require adaptation to be tailoring planned based on local issue of concern Who adapt to what? Why and How? System / sector / economic group / demographic group / community / etc. Future change – climate • Change in season pattern • Change in frequency and magnitude of extreme weather event Future change – non-climate • Socioeconomic change – market condition, migration, development and infrastructure, government policy, etc. Risk / local problem that may be changing its profile in the future And/or Emerging risk/problem from change in future conditions (climate and non climate combined) • New development strategic direction • New alternative in mobilizing strategy • Innovation / new idea in risk management Climate change adaptation – What and Why SEA START RC copyright 2017
  29. 29. Risk and resilience of system/sector (now) Change profile / concern? Socio-economic condition (past – present) Climate (Past – present) New ideas & innovation in risk managementFuture climate Risk (future) Socio-economic condition (Future) Sustainable / flexible Development Global warming NOW FUTURE Response to current situation Still applicable action? Alternate development pathway Different way to drive development strategy Adaptation Emerging risk? Climate change adaptation – What and Why SEA START RC copyright 2017
  30. 30. Climate Change Risk Assessment Process: 2-step approach Step 1 – Baseline climate risk assessment (present) – Sector / sub-sectors Concerned risk Concerned risk Defined as condition / situation that such sector or sub-sector is being threaten and nature of consequences under such circumstance Response Adequate Yes / No Consequences Cause of risk Chain of causes Climate Non-climate Cause of risk Climate Non-climate Cause of risk Climate Non-climate Adaptive capacity Response Adequate Yes / No Consequences Sector may be experiencing multiple risks / concerns 1) Identify issues of concern – risk 2) Assess nature of risk – causal pressure and drivers 3) Assess coping strategy / option / adaptive capacity Impact Impact Stakeholders participation and experts opinion throughout the process in Step 1, however, desk study may be required to verify opinions from the participatory process Local problem(s) Climate change adaptation – What and Why SEA START RC copyright 2017
  31. 31. Climate Change Risk Assessment Process: 2-step approach Step 2 – Climate change risk assessment (future) – Sector / sub-sectors Concerned risk Concerned risk Response Applicable / Adequate Yes / No Consequences Cause of risk Chain of causes Future climate Future socioeconomic condition Cause of risk Future climate Cause of risk Future climate Adaptive capacity Response Applicable / Adequate Yes / No Consequences Will there be emerging risk? 2) Determine shift and change in risk profile – Stakeholders participation 1) Assess nature of risk – causal pressure and drivers (note: multiple futures can be exercised to address long term uncertainty) 3) Assess Adaptation strategy / option – Experts opinion / stakeholders participation Future socioeconomic condition If no, then what? Adaptation Future socioeconomic condition Technical desk study Stakeholders participation / experts opinion / desk study Impact Impact Local problem(s) Climate change adaptation – What and Why SEA START RC copyright 2017
  32. 32. Example: Farmer community in northeast region, Thailand Lao-oi district, Kalasin Province, Thailand Climate change adaptation – What and Why SEA START RC copyright 2017
  33. 33. Farming community: wet-season rice / community is located along river Vulnerability to climate threat: high exposure to flood with limited coping capacity Community strategy: Won’t fight with flood – change to dry season rice – use water from main river through pumping station and underground pipe system Development pathway leads to dead end in light of climate change? Example - Case study: Lao-oi District, Thailand 5 Climate change adaptation – What and Why SEA START RC copyright 2017
  34. 34. Climate change trend: higher rainfall in rainy season – longer and warmer summer Example - Case study: Lao-oi District, Thailand Source: IPCC AR4 Source: SEA START RC Climate change adaptation – What and Why SEA START RC copyright 2017
  35. 35. Example - Case study: Lao-oi District, Thailand Adaptation: Find alternative to small scale irrigation system. Change from pump river water to water harvesting from rainy season for dry season farming. Climate change adaptation – What and Why SEA START RC copyright 2017
  36. 36. To revise development plan Alternative in mobilizing strategy / alternate investment New source of water for irrigation – harvest water during flood season for dry season agriculture To be embedded in water resource development plan Example - Case study: Lao-oi District, Thailand Climate resilience now and sustained in light of climate change 7 Climate change adaptation – What and Why SEA START RC copyright 2017
  37. 37. Climate Change: Why concern? • Warmer and longer summertime • Warmer and shorter winter • Higher annual rainfall and increasing rainfall intensity • Shifting on-set of rainy season • Change in frequency and magnitude of extreme weather event Who will be at risk? Why and how? What shall we do about it? Example of projected climate change (2520-2549 VS 2570-2599 B.E.) Source: Southeast Asia START Regional Center, Chulalongkorn University Change in maximum temperature Changing in annual rainfall Climate change adaptation – What and Why SEA START RC copyright 2017
  38. 38. Climate Change and some major concerns • Human settlement <<< higher frequency and magnitude of extreme weather • Agriculture • Crop productivity <<< change in temperature / on-set of rainy season / rainfall distribution pattern • Soil suitability / water availability <<< longer & warmer summertime • Water resources <<< change in rainfall distribution / longer & warmer summertime • Tourism industry <<< change in seasonal pattern • Etc. Climate change adaptation – What and Why SEA START RC copyright 2017
  39. 39. • Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia • Climate change adaptation – What and Why • Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand • Climate change adaptation: Future research agenda Climate Change Adaptation in Thailand: Concerns and some examples SEA START RC copyright 2017
  40. 40. Flood risk area in Bangkok, will be higher exposed to future flood Land use change in Bangkok will make the city more sensitive to future flood Climate change adaptation and human settlement Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand SEA START RC copyright 2017
  41. 41. Change in rainfall pattern will increase pressure on flood risk to Bangkok Climate change adaptation and human settlement Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand SEA START RC copyright 2017
  42. 42. Structural design for flood protection is required. Non-structure such as better city planning and institutional arrangement with the surrounding province for flood diversion. Climate change adaptation and human settlement Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand SEA START RC copyright 2017
  43. 43. Example: Town planning in light of climate change • Case study of the Town of Pun-pin, Suratthani Province, Thailand Climate change adaptation and human settlement Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand SEA START RC copyright 2017
  44. 44. Land-use zoning and town planning does not match with climate threat, thus put large number of population exposed to flood risk. In order to cope with more serious flood in the future, dual town center concept is proposed for development plan. SEA START RC copyright 2017
  45. 45. Dual-center town – Alternate development pathway to increase resilience to flood Coupled with improved infrastructure / building design Climate change adaptation and human settlement Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand SEA START RC copyright 2017
  46. 46. • Rearrange land-use zoning – more resilience to flood Climate change adaptation and human settlement Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand SEA START RC copyright 2017
  47. 47. Low income community is typically high vulnerable to extreme weather event • Located in risk prone area – high exposure to flood • Poorly built and improper design – high sensitive to flood • Limited resource for improvement/repair – Low coping capacity Household and community – Adaptation through creative architectural design • Eco-robust design • Eco-repairable design • Eco-adjustable design Examples of typical low income household Climate change adaptation and human settlement Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand SEA START RC copyright 2017
  48. 48. Effect of flood on functions of various low income household designs Higher frequency and magnitude of flood in the future drives needs for these low income households to adapt Climate change adaptation and human settlement Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand SEA START RC copyright 2017
  49. 49. Adaptation through creative architectural design Design that allows for disassemble of doors and windows, and with proper furniture, resident can live through the flood Climate change adaptation and human settlement Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand SEA START RC copyright 2017
  50. 50. Adaptive design allows residents to live through the flood period Adaptation through creative architectural design Climate change adaptation and human settlement Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand SEA START RC copyright 2017
  51. 51. Adaptive design allows residents to live through the flood period Adaptation through creative architectural design Climate change adaptation and human settlement Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand SEA START RC copyright 2017
  52. 52. Climate change adaptation and agriculture Key concerns • Shift and change in seasonal pattern >>> crop productivity น้อยกว่า 40 40 – 80 80 – 120 120 – 160 160 – 200 ผลผลิตเทียบ กับปีฐาน (%) Rain-fed rice Effect of future climate on future crop productivity (projection by mid 21st century) Cassava ผลผลิตเทียบกับปี ฐาน (%) น้อยกว่า 40 40 – 80 80 – 120 120 – 160 160 – 200 Sugar cane ผลผลิตอ้อย (ตัน/ไร่) น้อยกว่า 3.5 3.5 – 6.5 6.5 – 9.5 9.5 – 12.5 12.5 – 15.5 มากกว่า 15.5 Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand
  53. 53. Climate change adaptation and agriculture Key concerns • Higher frequency and magnitude of extreme weather >>> crop damage • Indirect impact of climate change on production resources • Higher rainfall intensity and soil erosion • Longer and warmer summer >>> higher demand of water • Longer and warmer summer >>> change in underground water table also causes saline soil in some areas Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand SEA START RC copyright 2017
  54. 54. Climate change adaptation and agriculture Adaptation direction • Transform production system >>> zoning • Improve technology for agriculture >>> improved cultivar • Improve agriculture support infrastructure >>> water harvesting • Risk management mechanism >>> crop insurance / future market Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand SEA START RC copyright 2017
  55. 55. • Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia • Climate change adaptation – What and Why • Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand • Climate change adaptation: Future research agenda SEA START RC copyright 2017 Climate Change Adaptation in Thailand: Concerns and some examples
  56. 56. • Misconception / misunderstanding on climate change and climate change adaptation >>> climate change as abstract condition • Limited research and researcher in this topic, especially multi- discipline research >>> sector-based study only • Climate Change Adaptation study is framed around conventional concept of IVA and focuses on predict-then-act approach >>> dilemma about accuracy of the future • Social dynamic is always be neglected >>> unrealistic adaptation that only addresses current social context Climate change adaptation study: Gaps Very little has been done, always led by science-based study Climate change adaptation: Future research agenda SEA START RC copyright 2017
  57. 57. Climate change adaptation study: New research agendas Climate change adaptation: Future research agenda • Climate change adaptation for large landform: Multiple sectors / multiple scales / multiple threats assessment SEA START RC copyright 2017
  58. 58. Water Agri system Environ ment Human settlement Socio-economic condition Climate Land use / land cover • Production resources (water – soil) • Agri system pattern & productivity Water availability & allocation • City expansion, town planning & infrastructure • Flood & water shortage • Change in watershed run-off/ water balance – water deficit • Change in reservoir reserve NOW FUTURE • Change in saline soil and underground water • Risk of agri. System in different agro-eco zones • Change in land use pattern • Risk of community / city to climate & non-climate stresses and coping capacity • Institutional gaps in risk management Risk and vulnerability: What & Who – how & why – how much? Challenge ahead: Adaptation for large landform - a trans-disciplinary research Adaptation planning: Visioning process – disruptive thinking – Robust decision making Climate change adaptation: Future research agenda SEA START RC copyright 2017
  59. 59. Climate change adaptation study: New research agendas Risk and vulnerability assessment  Defining social context that determine risk/vulnerability profile  Visioning of future socio-economic structure scenario under current development strategy and plan  Social dynamic and evolving risk profile and future climate concern  Loss and damage assessment framework Risk communication  Communicating scientific information for local planning  Science-policy dialogue process Planning adaptation under uncertainties  Robust decision making Justifying adaptation  Economic analysis of uncertainty situation Mainstreaming climate change adaptation  Policy gap analysis  Policy planning process - long-term strategic planning at various levels of policy planning Mobilizing climate change adaptation  Institutional gap assessment  Cross-ministry planning Evaluating adaptation  Effectiveness of adaptation strategy and plan / Monitoring & Evaluation framework Climate change adaptation: Future research agenda SEA START RC copyright 2017
  60. 60. Thank You Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC, Chulalongkoen University suppakorn@start.or.th www.thailandadaptation.net

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