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Chris Deering - Keynote Edinburgh Interactive Festival


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Former Sony Computer Entertainment Chairman and President, Chris Deering's, opening presentation at the Edinburgh Interactive Festival

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Chris Deering - Keynote Edinburgh Interactive Festival

  1. 1. Expanding the Creative Culture of Games in the New Media Era Chris Deering Edinburgh… August 2008
  2. 2. Game Industry will pass $50 Billion in 2008 <ul><li>This is just the Beginning…… </li></ul><ul><li>Mega Trends point to Seismic Shifts over the </li></ul><ul><li>Next 3-5 years </li></ul><ul><li>And Gaming Culture will spread well beyond </li></ul><ul><li>Traditional Entertainment Applications </li></ul>
  3. 3. New Trends for the Expansion of Immersive Gaming Experience <ul><li>- 6-10 age games, Family and Gray Gamer sectors grow </li></ul><ul><li>- Hi Def Enabled Homes spawn Combi Console /STBs </li></ul><ul><li>- Ubiquitous Wi-Fi powers “Anywhere” gaming </li></ul><ul><li>- New Game Engines, Physics, Lighting and Lips-Synch Tools </li></ul><ul><li>- Voice Recognition, GPS, and “Location Aware” Servers </li></ul><ul><li>- Massive Worlds, Cinema-real “thinking and speaking” Characters </li></ul>
  4. 4. New Trends drive New Gaming Business Innovation <ul><li>- Behavior Tracking will enable “Pinpoint” Marketing </li></ul><ul><li>- Micro-payments and cash on-line transaction modes </li></ul><ul><li>- Advertising subsidizes consumer spending </li></ul><ul><li>- Gambling becomes a source of development funding </li></ul><ul><li>- User Enhanced, User Generated and User Published games </li></ul><ul><li>- Games for Special Niche Communities </li></ul>
  5. 5. Some Stats…….
  6. 6. HI Def “Enabled” Homes (mm) <ul><li>2007 2012 </li></ul><ul><li>N. America 19 69 </li></ul><ul><li>China / India - - 17 </li></ul><ul><li>Asia Pacific 7 53 </li></ul><ul><li>Greater Europe 1.3 37 </li></ul><ul><li>TOTAL 27 176 </li></ul>
  7. 7. 3G Mobile Phone Subscribers (mm) <ul><li>Europe 2008 2012 </li></ul><ul><li>Italy 25 80 </li></ul><ul><li>Germany 16 80 </li></ul><ul><li>UK 14 60 </li></ul><ul><li>France 13 40 </li></ul><ul><li>Spain 12 40_ </li></ul><ul><li>TOTAL 80 300 </li></ul>
  8. 8. World wide Active Installed Base (mm) <ul><li>2008 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>DS etc 85 150 </li></ul><ul><li>Wii etc 38 80 </li></ul><ul><li>PS3 22 70 </li></ul><ul><li>Xbox 360 etc 21 40 </li></ul><ul><li>PSP etc 40 70 </li></ul><ul><li>PS2 110 90 </li></ul><ul><li>316 500 </li></ul><ul><li>Other Handheld 500 1000 </li></ul><ul><li>Gaming PCs 500 1000 </li></ul>
  9. 9. Gaming environment fragmentation. Can we adapt and specialize? The winners will ! <ul><li>Devices Input Types </li></ul><ul><li>Consoles (3) Keypad Traditional </li></ul><ul><li>Handhelds (2) Mouse Casual </li></ul><ul><li>PC (2) Wheel Mobile </li></ul><ul><li>Cell Phones Buzzer MMO </li></ul><ul><li>Smart Phones Wand ARG </li></ul><ul><li>Notebooks Instruments Family Fun </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple Device Dance Mats Collaborative </li></ul><ul><li>Voice Gambling </li></ul>
  10. 10. The Players … and future players <ul><li>Format First Party (3) </li></ul><ul><li>Super Majors ( 3 ) </li></ul><ul><li>Movie Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Mini Majors West ( 7) </li></ul><ul><li>Asia Majors ( 7) </li></ul><ul><li>But Also…. </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile Network Operators </li></ul><ul><li>Handset Manufacturers </li></ul><ul><li>Cable, Satellite, DSL Operators </li></ul><ul><li>TV Networks, Production Companies, Web Retailers </li></ul><ul><li>Ad Agencies, Promotion Companies, Gambling Co’s </li></ul>
  11. 11. Traditional Revenue Sources will NOT be Sufficient to Fund Games Development <ul><li>- Global Retail Software Sales projected to be 20% lower in 2011 than in 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>- Development cost on major games is well over $10mm </li></ul><ul><li>- Less than 3 out of 10 games recover their development and marketing costs through boxed goods sales </li></ul><ul><li>- Creative use of hybrid on-line/off-line/ advertising revenue business models must be explored </li></ul>
  12. 12. Game Design and Creation Skills will fuel the Explosive Growth of Gaming and Move into the Mainstream Many successful entrepreneurs of the next decade will emerge from the Games Industry Spot the trend and fill a need
  13. 13. The Biggest Trends of the Decade <ul><li>- The internet continues its relentless “disintermediation” </li></ul><ul><li>- Internet served video becomes the norm and goes mobile. Fan bases fragment into new communities </li></ul><ul><li>- Remote data storage supplements home hard drives </li></ul><ul><li>- Global virtual currencies emerge </li></ul><ul><li>- Fuel costs force out travel waste in work, shopping, education, medicine, socializing and entertainment </li></ul><ul><li>- Everyone’s location is discoverable within 1 sq meter </li></ul>
  14. 14. Eye opener… “By 2012, a mere 20 US homes will consume more digital traffic than the entire US Internet backbone in 1995, and video will be 90% of the traffic” - Cisco Systems
  15. 15. Video is everywhere.. In Hi Def. Live, and on every screen. Any time. All the time. <ul><li>- The term “TV” ceases to be relevant </li></ul><ul><li>- You can watch Anything you want. Its all there. Served On-line </li></ul><ul><li>- Everything ever recorded, new User Generated </li></ul><ul><li>- The “Long tail of Live”…. THINK ABOUT IT </li></ul><ul><li>- Advertisers know WHAT you are watching and WHERE you are </li></ul><ul><li>- You won’t have the time to check guides </li></ul><ul><li>- You will need Real Time advice on what to watch </li></ul><ul><li>- From a source you trust.. </li></ul><ul><li>HOW CAN GAME CULTURE HELP DISCOVERY and SHARED EXPERIENCES? </li></ul>
  16. 16. Spending on “TV” over Internet will Surpass on-line spending on Games <ul><li>Projected US Online Content Spending </li></ul><ul><li>Video/TV on demand Games </li></ul><ul><li>$ 0.29 billion $ 0.65 billion </li></ul><ul><li>0.75 1.04 </li></ul><ul><li>1.48 1.15 </li></ul><ul><li>2.57 2.09 </li></ul><ul><li>4.29 2.50 </li></ul><ul><li>Why not make a GAME out of VOD and BluRay Live? </li></ul>
  17. 17. The Expanding Reach of Mobile Networks create Massive Mobile Social Networks <ul><li>- Mobile phones and PC’s become “all in one” devices </li></ul><ul><li>- Handheld social networks grew from 30mm in 2006 ’ </li></ul><ul><li>to 55mm in 2007 ! </li></ul><ul><li>- 2012 estimates range from 400mm to 800mm </li></ul><ul><li>- Primarily 18-35 60/40 male/female .. So far! </li></ul><ul><li>Why not make a Game of It ? </li></ul>
  18. 18. Mobile Television Subscribers/Users will grow in both Digital and Analog modes <ul><li>(millions) </li></ul><ul><li>2008 2010 2012 </li></ul><ul><li>Analog 20 170 260 </li></ul><ul><li>Digital 75 130 220 </li></ul><ul><li>TOTAL 95 300 480 </li></ul>
  19. 19. Advertising on Mobile Devices.. It’s just the beginning <ul><li>- So far, largely untapped, and small screen </li></ul><ul><li>- But, high speed “all in one” devices could create another advertising gold rush </li></ul><ul><li>- Global ads on handsets was $870mm in ’07 </li></ul><ul><li>- In ’08, this will grow to $1.4 billion </li></ul><ul><li>There is over $400 billion more in global ad spending that can migrate to this medium </li></ul><ul><li>- Why not make a Game of It </li></ul>
  20. 20. GPS in Phones, dog collars, car keys. (It costs <$5 to add GPS to a cell phone) <ul><li>- In 2008 110mm phones will have GPS </li></ul><ul><li>- In 2007 it was 10mm </li></ul><ul><li>- By 2010 - 400mm </li></ul><ul><li>Why not make a Game of it? </li></ul>
  21. 21. Think “experiences” How can the Culture of Gaming improve Experiences in the New Digital Era? <ul><li>What experiences come to mind? </li></ul><ul><li>- iPod </li></ul><ul><li>- iPhone </li></ul><ul><li>- Blackberry </li></ul><ul><li>- Google </li></ul><ul><li>- Facebook </li></ul><ul><li>- Quizilla </li></ul>
  22. 22. Mobile Learning Market. Make it FUN 3G, Wi-Fi and WIMAX Networks Sexy User Interfaces and remote storage Community and Collaboration Applications Content Creation & Conversion Tools More powerful devices & browsers Mobile Collaborative Learning Source: Ambient Insight
  23. 23. Opportunities in New Experiences where Gaming Culture will be Relevant Revolution in user interfaces and input including voice Mobile phone communities go massive + global “ New Experiences ” Impact Information , Employment and Entertainment Monetisation of streaming unleashes ” the long tail of live “ “ Concierge ” services abound as “ Time ” becomes precious commodity Females become the biggest paying audience on the web Ubiquitous screens and HiDef redefine “TV” GPS on mobiles and “ location aware ” servers
  24. 24. So Many new Businesses with 100’s of MILLIONS of users… <ul><li>The creative culture of gaming can help the world </li></ul><ul><li>move up a level and actually enjoy the experience </li></ul><ul><li>WHY not MAKE A GAME of IT! </li></ul>
  25. 25. Thanks!
  26. 26. Questions ?