HS2AA Political Party Conference Presentation


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HS2 Action Alliance's presentation from 2012 Party Political Conferences detailing he fatal flaws in the business case for HS2

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HS2AA Political Party Conference Presentation

  1. 1. HS2: A Bad Deal for Britain
  2. 2. HS2: A Bad Deal for Britain• HS2 is a waste of money.• HS2 is London centric and won’t cure the north-south divide.• There are better options for improving our railways and economy than £33 billion on HS2.• HS2 is environmentally destructive.
  3. 3. HS2: A bad deal for reducing aviation• There are no flights between London and Birmingham or Leeds for HS2 to replace.• Flights between London and Manchester have fallen and overwhelmingly cater for passengers transferring to international destinations.• HS2 is not an alternative to airport expansion, it makes it more likely- it will be much easier in many areas of the UK to travel to Heathrow by train.
  4. 4. Demand for Domestic Aviation is Falling
  5. 5. The airlines love HS2“UK domestic aviation will be unaffected by thelimited, London-centric nature of any high-speed rail investment that might be forthcomingover the next few decades.Indeed, there is a very strong argument thataviation which serves regions like the WestMidlands and the north-west will actually seean increase in demand as a result of highspeed rail”FlyBe
  6. 6. HS2: A Bad Deal for Capacity• Claims that the West Coast Main Line is full do not stack up.• Investing so much in a corridor which already has one of our fastest and least crowded mainline services is a gross misallocation of resources.
  7. 7. Network Rail’s own figures confirmEuston is one of London’s least busy major stations
  8. 8. And it has the most spare capacity Station Service Group Total Demand as a % of Total Capacity Waterloo SW Main Line 110% Paddington Main Line 109% Moorgate All services 103% London Bridge Terminating 102% Victoria Kent routes 97% Blackfriars All services 97% Fenchurch Street All services 94% Marylebone All services 91% Liverpool Street West Anglia 90% St Pancras Midland Mainline 79% Kings Cross ECML 74% Euston Long Distance 64%
  9. 9. Capacity Crisis?• Passenger kilometres have not been growing at 6% per annum, i.e., journeys are getting shorter• Most journeys in Britain are well below the minimum efficient distance for high speed rail• The Government has refused Freedom of Information requests about loadings on West Coast Main Line services• Crowding on London Midland Euston outer suburban services is a result of inefficient operating practices, and short trains
  10. 10. The West Coast Mainline is not “full” InterCity West Coast is unique because it has a considerable amount of unused capacity that will expand further with the addition of 106 new Pendolino coaches by the start of our new franchise.First Group, August 2012
  11. 11. HS2: A Bad Deal for Carbon Reduction• HS2 is not part of a low carbon or sustainable transport policy.• HS2 Ltd’s own analysis shows low numbers of passengers would shift from car and air to using the new rail line.• HS2 would generate significant numbers of new journeys, all of which would emit more carbon than journeys on the existing rail network.
  12. 12. 89% of journeys on HS2 will increase emissions
  13. 13. HS2: A Bad Deal for the Environment• The environmental impact of HS2 is enormous, unacceptable and has not been properly explained by the Government.• The irreversible damage to the physical environment caused by HS2 and the lack of saving in carbon emissions should be sufficient to cancel the project on sustainability grounds alone.
  14. 14. Domestic aviation accounts for a small proportion of our emissions
  15. 15. HS2 is not “Green”High speed rail is not a „get out of jail‟ free cardfor carbon emissions and climate change. Theproposed HS2 trains would burn 50% moreenergy mile-for-mile than the Eurostar and HS2would produce more than twice the emissionsof an intercity train.Professor John Whitelegg Green PartySpokesperson on Sustainable Development
  16. 16. If HS2 proceeds, the impact on wildlife and biodiversity will be devastating•Over 50 ancient woodlands destroyed•10 sites of Special Scientific Interestdirectly damaged•Over 40 other sites of Special ScientificInterest adversely impacted•Area of Outstanding Natural Beautychanged forever•Over 5000 acres of productive landrequired for construction, just for stageone alone
  17. 17. HS2 will devastate wildlifeHS2’s proposed route willdestroy over 50 ancientwoodlands, eliminatingirreplaceable habitats for someof our most precious wildlife
  18. 18. HS2: A Bad Deal For Jobs• HS2 will create few jobs – HS2 Ltd’s own figures show this.• HS2 will benefit London – increasing jobs there rather than in the regions.• The opportunity costs of HS2 are vast – the funds allocated for this project could instead be used to transform our transport system to benefit every community in the UK.
  19. 19. HS2: A Bad deal for Jobs‘Claims about the “transformational” nature of transport investments should be generally discounted because they have no convincing evidence base to support them’.Professor Henry OvermanLondon School of EconomicsHouse of CommonsTransport Select Committee.
  20. 20. HS2: A Bad Deal for the North• Direct journeys between our great northern cities will not be possible on HS2.• HS2 will require over £5 billion in cuts to existing services- including on the West Coast Main Line and Midland Main Line
  21. 21. West Coast Main Line Service Cuts With HS2 City Current service Service post HS2 Service Change Summary HS2 service Coventry 3 trains/hour, I intermediate 1 train/hour, three Loss of 2 trains/ hour and approx Nil stop intermediate stops 10 minute longer journey Birmingham 3 trains/hour, 2 intermediate 1 train/hour, 4 Loss of 2 trains/ hour and approx. Nil (HS2 will serve International stops intermediate stops 10 minute longer journey time Birmingham Interchange)Birmingham New 3 trains/hour, 3 intermediate 1 train/hour, 5 Loss of 2 trains/ hour and approx. HS2 service to Curzon Street stops intermediate stops 10 minute longer journey Street, three trains an hour Sandwell and 1 train/hour, 4 intermediate 1 train/hour, 6 Approx. 10 minute longer journey Nil Dudley stops intermediate stopsWolverhampton 1 train/hour, 5 intermediate 1 train/hour, 7 Approx. 10 minute longer journey Nil stops intermediate stops Warrington 1 train/hour, non-stop No service No trains at all Phase 1 – 1 HS2 train/hour, Phase 2 – No service Wigan 1 train/hour, 1 intermediate 1 train/hour, 3 Approx. 10 minute longer journey Phase 1 – 1 HS2 train/hour, stop intermediate stops Phase 2 – No service Preston 1 train/hour, 2 intermediate 1 train/hour, 3 Approx. 5 minute longer journey 1 train/hour stops intermediate stops Lancaster 1 train most hours, 3 1 train/hour, 4 Approx. 5 minute longer journey Nil intermediate stops intermediate stops Carlisle 1 train most hours, 5 1 train/hour, 8 Approx. 15 minute longer journey Nil intermediate stops intermediate stops Stoke-on-Trent 2 trains/hour (1 non-stop, 1 1 train/hour, 1 Loss of hourly non-stop train Nil with 1 intermediate stop) intermediate stop Wilmslow 1 train/hour, 1 intermediate No service No trains at all Nil stop Stockport 3 trains/hour, 2 intermediate 1 train/hour, 3 Loss of 2 trains/ hour and approx. Nil stops intermediate stops 5 minute longer journey
  22. 22. Midland Main Line Cuts with HS2 City/Town Current service Service Post Phase 2 Service Change HS2 service (Phase 2 only) Summary Leicester 4 trains/hour (2 non-stop) 3 trains/hour (1 non- Loss of 1 non-stop Nil stop) train/hourEast Midlands 2 trains/hour, 2 No service 2 trains/hour calling at an “East Parkway intermediate stops Midlands” station. Location not yet specified, may be between Nottingham and DerbyNottingham 2 trains/hour 1 train an hour Loss of 1 train/hour No city centre HS2 service. “East Midlands” HS2 station likely to have poor rail and bus links Derby 2 trains an hour (1 with one 2 trains/hour (1 with 10-15 minute slower No city centre HS2 service. “East stop, 1 with 4 stops) 3 stops, 1 with 7 journey times Midlands” HS2 station likely to have stops) poor rail and bus linksChesterfield 2 trains/hour (1 with 2 1 train/hour, with 4 Loss of one train/hour, Nil stops, 1 with 5 stops) stops with 10 minute longer journey time Sheffield 2 trains/hour (1 with 3 1 train/hour, with 5 Loss of one train per No city centre HS2 service. “South stops, 1 with 6 stops) stops hour, 10-15 minute Yorkshire” HS2 station shown to have slower journey times 3 trains an hour, but likely to have poor rail and bus links
  23. 23. HS2: A Bad Deal for the Midlands• Birmingham is not even on the main HS2 line; it is on a branch served by trains running to a terminus at Curzon Street, remote from New Street (the main city station).• Curzon Street is on the southern periphery of the city centre, and not particularly well located with respect to the central business district.• Most commuter flows into Birmingham would not be relieved by HS2• The site of the HS2 ‘Birmingham interchange’ at Bickenhill, is in Solihull borough, but difficult to reach from Solihull town centre
  24. 24. HS2: A Bad Deal for the MidlandsHS2 would provide no measurable time advantage for most West Midlands residents; as theadditional (transfer-to and waiting-)time at Curzon Street exceeds half an hour, HS2′s higherspeed is nullified.
  25. 25. HS2: A Bad Deal for London• Massive disruption to the borough of Camden• Concentrating fast trains from Scotland, Northern England, and the Midlands, on one central London arrival point• Concentrating fast trains from Scotland, Northern England, and the Midlands, on a single track in each direction• Dispersing central London traffic arriving from Scotland, Northern England, and the Midlands, from one Underground station.
  26. 26. HS2 will have just four city centre stations: London, Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester. Everyone else loses with HS2• Sheffield — Northampton • Sheffield — Nottingham• Peterborough — Leeds • Chester — Milton Keynes• London — Wakefield • Wolverhampton — London• London — Bradford • Coventry — London • Stoke-on-Trent — London• London — Stockport • Stoke-on-Trent — Watford• Watford — Manchester • Halifax — Coventry• Milton Keynes — Bolton • Nottingham — Huddersfield• Doncaster — London • Bristol — Derby
  27. 27. HS2: A Bad Deal for Scotland• HS2 represents a huge investment to benefit very few Scottish rail travellers – 92% of all rail journeys in Scotland begin and end in Scotland.• The funds that Scotland will contribute to HS2 would be better used to improve its own transport infrastructure.
  28. 28. Even with HS2’s massivelyoverinflated demand modeland other assumptions theWest Coast Main Line toScotland never gets more than50% full.
  29. 29. The view from AmericaIn 2008 US Amtrak’s Inspector Generalreported that six European nations’operations required a subsidy of US$42bnannually“…Virtually no HSR lines anywhere in theworld have earned enough revenue tocover both their construction and operatingcosts.”US Congressional Research Service
  30. 30. Margaret Hodge MP Chair, House of Commons Public Accounts Committee“Before going ahead with HS2 we need a robustcost benefit analysis.Some of the Department’s assumptions about the benefits of faster travelare simply untenable. For example, the time business travellers save byusing high speed rail is valued at £54 per hour yet the time commuterssave getting to and from work is only valued at £7 per hour.It is difficult to see how this can be justified.”