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Imagining a Beautiful Green Future: Vancouver 2032
By Guy Dauncey. First presented as a Langara College Metamorphosis Lecture Series, Feb 12, 2014. This larger version presented to CMHC on April 1st, 2014.
By Guy Dauncey. First presented as a Langara College Metamorphosis Lecture Series, Feb 12, 2014. This larger version presented to CMHC on April 1st, 2014.
30.
So what is our vision of
a beautiful, desirable future?
31.
What are the Values
on which we shall build our future city?
THE OLD THE NEW
Moving Cars Moving People
Individualism Community
The Functional City The Happy City
A Private
Capitalist Economy
A Sharing
Co-operative Economy
Domination over
Nature
Harmony with Nature
35.
Eight Themes
1: A New Green Economy
2: Poverty & Inequality
3: Affordable Housing
4: The Downtown Eastside
5: Transportation without Oil
6: Our Homes
7: Our Neighbourhoods
8: How Do We Get There?
36.
Guy
Moving from a
CAPITALIST
to a
COOPERATIVE
Economy
1: The New Green Economy
37.
Guy
A COOPERATIVE
Economy
Businesses flourish in harmony with
other businesses, workers,
community and nature.
39.
Neighbourhoods across Vancouver have set
up Urban Village Business Networks
Businesses pay a 0.4% levy on sales for
financial mutual support and cooperation.
40.
Emilia Romagna, Italy
• Population 4.4 million
• $$$, top ten European regions
• 32% self-employed
• 76% work in small
• Business with 4-5 workers
• Italy’s 4th largest exporter
• 400,000 enterprises
• 15,000 cooperatives
• Strong tradition of reciprocity,
regional economy mutual
support system, financed by
a 0.4% levy on sales
• High density of banks
• Regional credit system with
close ties to local enterprises
• Lowest unemployment
• Highest rate of citizen
satisfaction in Italy
41.
Emilia Romagna, Italy
There are half a million businesses and coops in
the region, which pay a 0.4% levy on sales to
local inter-business organizations.
In return, they receive support with financing,
training, research, development strategies and
export efforts.
42.
Vancouver Cooperatives have
their own Mutual Support Network
43.
Local Businesses
are making
Wage Differentials
Reduction Pledges
from 30:1 to 10:1
44.
Guy
Many Vancouver businesses are
becoming Benefit Corporations
46.
Guy
Most Vancouver businesses have
Women Directors on the Board
“Companies with more Women Board Directors
experience higher financial performance,
according to latest Catalyst Bottom Line Report.”
47.
Guy
All Vancouver businesses are
incentivized to acquire
Green Business Certification
48.
Guy
Youth Enterprise Initiatives
are flourishing
49.
Guy
The Local Food Economy
is flourishing
www.solefoodfarms.com
50.
Guy
There is a big New City Market
and Food Hub
51.
Guy
There are community gardens and micro-markets everywhere
52.
Guy
All of Vancouver‟s banks
and credit unions have embraced
Values-Based Banking
53.
Guy
A publicly-owned
State Bank of BC
has been established
Creates new credit
Holds public taxes and fees
Targets strategic investments
Clearing bank for other banks
Profits recycled, public benefit
Modeled on
The Bank of North Dakota
54.
Guy
WIR Inter-Business Banking gives
businesses credit when they need it
61.
Guy
Basic Income for all
has been established
A Basic Income is an income unconditionally
guaranteed to all on an individual basis,
without means test or work requirement.
63.
Guy
It is being financed through:
• Reallocation of pensions
and unemployment benefit,
social security and welfare
payments
• Direct taxation
• Indirect taxation on
consumption (GST)
• The Financial Transactions
Tax
68.
Guy
Debt Circles
Fair Taxation
Basic Income
Co-operatives
Profit-sharing
Affordable Housing
Student Debt Solution
The Sharing Economy
Increased Minimum Wage
Ability to grow your own food
70.
Guy
Two-storey house: $1,151,250
Vancouver
Average House Prices, July 2013
71.
Guy
Detached bungalow: $1,052,500
Vancouver
Average House Prices, July 2013
72.
Guy
Condo: $490,475
Vancouver
Average House Prices, July 2013
73.
Guy
Existing City Initiatives
Vancouver Rent Bank
Inclusionary Zoning
Density Bonusing
Secondary Suites
Infill Development
Demolition Control
Further Initiatives…
74.
Guy
$$ GATHERING THE MONEY $$
•There‟s a progressively increasing tax on real
estate sales over $2 million
•15% sales tax on properties bought through
offshore companies
•Annual levy on properties registered offshore
for tax reasons
•Escalating tax on empty properties to stop
developers from sitting on them
75.
Guy
$$ SPENDING THE MONEY $$
•Vancouver Affordable Housing Trust Fund
•There‟s a Community Housing Circle in each
neighbourhood which plans and builds
affordable projects.
76.
There‟s a Community Land Trust
which buys land for affordable housing
Hannah Wittman/Michelle Colussi
77.
Guy
In rental apartments
there are Tenants‟ Stewardship Councils
which also have the first right of purchase
78.
Guy
The new funds are being used to buy out
the Downtown Eastside Rooming Hotels,
and to restore or demolish and rebuild
79.
Communal Renting has been legalized
for more than five people
80.
Communal ownership has become common
8-Bedroom house in North Van: $1.5 million
= $250k each for 8 owners
81.
Car-Free Laneway Micro-Housing
has become common
82.
www.loftcube.net
There‟s a special Rooftop Homes Zone
87.
Guy
1. There is Basic Income for all
Already in place in our imagined 2032:
88.
Guy
1. There is Basic Income for all
2. The Bank of BC creates low-
interest credit and supports local
community economies, including
microloans
Already in place in our imagined 2032:
89.
Guy
1. There is Basic Income for all
2. The Bank of BC creates low-
interest credit and supports local
community economies, including
microloans
3. There are many new affordable
housing initiatives
Already in place in our imagined 2032:
90.
Guy
4: There is funding
to restore or
rebuild the old
rooming hotels
In addition….
91.
Guy
5. There is funding to convert the old motels
along Kingsway into single-room
housing coops
92.
6. BC has adopted the Nordic model,
decriminalizing prostituted women,
while criminalizing pimps and johns
93.
7: There has been a change in Canada‟s
prisons policy, with more restorative justice
and less jail time. It costs $114,000 a year to
keep someone in jail.
94.
8: Recreational soft drugs have been
legalized. There are safe legal injection sites,
detox and treatment on demand,
and recovery coaching to help ex-addicts
remain in their homes.
95.
9: A team of “Judy‟s Angels” provide
one-to-one support to help people
get off the street and into a home.
96.
10: Vancouver‟s Food
Banks (which fed 15,000
people a day in 2014)
have been transformed
into Community Food
Centres where people
learn how to cook
together, eat together,
grow their own food,
and join a Community
Food Coop.
97.
Hastings Street from Cordova to Main
has been made car-free.
There is a green Trail of Power
with a big sculpture at each intersection
that tells the story of Canada‟s First Nations
99.
Guy
How most traffic engineer see the city
How cities should be designed
Who needs to own a car,
when walking is so pleasant,
Cycling such fun,
public transit so efficient
and carsharing so easy?
20% of our trips in 2032 are on foot
40% are by bike
25% are by transit
only 15% are by car or light truck
114.
Guy
Cars are only being used for 15% of our trips
115.
Vehicle owners are earning
up to $300 a month
through peer-to-peer carsharing
116.
Affordable small electric vehicles:
Renault Twizy
$9,700 + $60/month battery lease
117.
100 km = 15 kWh
10,000 km = 1,500 kWh
1,500 kwh @ 10 cents = $13 a month
Gas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month
Grid Power for EV
EV Bargain!!
10 times cheaper
to run!
124.
Guy
Every house with
a south-facing
roof is a
Solar House
125.
Solar Economics in Vancouver
4 kW, 5% finance, 3% year hydro inflation
2013 2020 2032
Cost per kW $4,000 $3,000 $2,000
4 kW system $16,800 $12,600 $8,400
Cost + $ @ 5% $29,300 $22,000 $14,700
kWh per year 4,400 4,400 4,400
25 year Income $21,900 $26,300 $61,500
Profit -$7,400 +$4,300 +$46,800
Guy
126.
Guy
Every house
with a south-
facing roof
has solar
hot water
127.
Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
Neolithic Era
Ancient Egypt
Roman Empire
Islamic Golden Age
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The Age of Fossil Fuels
……………………………………….
The last 10,000 years
128.
Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
The last 10,000 years
..................................................
What happens here,
when we stop burning fossil fuels?
The Age of
Fossil Fuels
129.
Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun does not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
And with every passing year,
solar technology will improve
and get cheaper.
132.
16" foam insulation.
8” studs, 24” OC with
plywood and OSB
EuroLine Windows
fiberglass/UPVC triple-glazed
U= 0.73
Heat recovery ventilation:
90% exhaust heat transferred
to incoming fresh air
Building cost only 4.3% more,
144.
Insulated Pipes
Hot water at 200o C
delivered to customers
25 km away
only a few degrees of
heat loss.
145.
Vancouver False Creek Sewage-Based District Heat
146.
Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta
Solar Thermal District Heat
147.
800
solar hot water
panels
on the garages
90% of residential space
heating needs met by solar
thermal energy (40-50o C)
Saves 5 tonnes
GHG emissions per home
per year.
148.
The Energy Centre
Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year
Community solar
heat panels
Solar hot water
panels
149.
Collective solar thermal system
on a residential building, Germany www.wagner-solar.com
195.
The Sustainable
City
The Happy,
Affordable City
More walking, biking, bus, carsharing = Lower transport costs
More urban food gardens = Lower food costs
Innovative affordable housing = Lower housing costs
Green, solar, energy-efficient homes = Lower energy costs
The Sharing Economy = Lower cash costs
Stronger community economies = More financial security
Basic Income, debt solutions = More financial security
More urban greenery = More peace, more beauty
No more fossil fuels = Clean air, clear sky, quiet city
More civic engagement = Healthier political realm
Stronger neighbourhoods = More friends, more real community
More arts, music, celebration = More friends, more happiness,