1. CMHC
April 1st, 2014

2. Guy

3. Guy
Metamorphosis…

4. We have come a long way from this….

5. To this….

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10. Guy
but…

11. Guy Smithore Dreamstime.com
We have also come to this…

14. Guy

17. GDP =
Gross
Depletion
of the
Planet

18. Gross Depletion of the Planet
+ Yield
- Costs
= Profit

19. Guy

20. Gross Depletion of the Planet

22. Guy
And this…

23. The last time the world was 3C warmer
the sea-level was up to
25 metres
higher

24. 2 metres
10 metres
18 metres
25 metres

25. 1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

26. 3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

27. 20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

28. We have also come to this…

29. Guy
And this…
And this…

30. Guy

31. The power
of our vision
must be stronger than
the power
of our fears

33. “The future belongs to those who
believe in the beauty of their dreams.”
― Eleanor Roosevelt

34. "Dreams are extremely important.
You can't do it unless you can imagine it.”
- George Lucas

35. Istanbul,
Turkey

36. So what is our vision of
a beautiful, desirable future?

37. What are the Values
on which we shall build our future city?
THE OLD THE NEW
Moving Cars Moving People
Individualism Community
The Functional City The Happy City
A Private
Capitalist Economy
A Sharing
Co-operative Economy
Domination over
Nature
Harmony with Nature

38. Guy

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41. Eight Themes
1: A New Green Economy
2: Poverty & Inequality
3: Affordable Housing
4: The Downtown Eastside
5: Transportation without Oil
6: Our Homes
7: Our Neighbourhoods
8: How Do We Get There?

42. Guy
Moving from a
CAPITALIST
to a
COOPERATIVE
Economy
1: The New Green Economy

43. Guy
A COOPERATIVE
Economy
Businesses flourish in harmony with
other businesses, workers,
community and nature.

47. The
Community
Economy
in 2032

48. Neighbourhoods across Vancouver have set
up Urban Village Business Networks
Businesses pay a 0.4% levy on sales for
financial mutual support and cooperation.

49. Emilia Romagna, Italy
• Population 4.4 million
• $$$, top ten European regions
• 32% self-employed
• 76% work in small
• Business with 4-5 workers
• Italy’s 4th largest exporter
• 400,000 enterprises
• 15,000 cooperatives
• Strong tradition of reciprocity,
regional economy mutual
support system, financed by
a 0.4% levy on sales
• High density of banks
• Regional credit system with
close ties to local enterprises
• Lowest unemployment
• Highest rate of citizen
satisfaction in Italy

50. Emilia Romagna, Italy
There are half a million businesses and coops in
the region, which pay a 0.4% levy on sales to
local inter-business organizations.
In return, they receive support with financing,
training, research, development strategies and
export efforts.

51. Vancouver Cooperatives have
their own Mutual Support Network

52. Local Businesses
are making
Wage Differentials
Reduction Pledges
from 30:1 to 10:1

53. Guy
Many Vancouver businesses are
becoming Benefit Corporations

54. Guy

55. Guy
Most Vancouver businesses have
Women Directors on the Board
“Companies with more Women Board Directors
experience higher financial performance,
according to latest Catalyst Bottom Line Report.”

56. Guy
All Vancouver businesses are
incentivized to acquire
Green Business Certification

57. Guy
Youth Enterprise Initiatives
are flourishing

58. Guy
The Local Food Economy
is flourishing
www.solefoodfarms.com

59. Guy
There is a big New City Market
and Food Hub

60. Guy
There are community gardens and micro-markets everywhere

61. Guy
All of Vancouver‟s banks
and credit unions have embraced
Values-Based Banking

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A publicly-owned
State Bank of BC
has been established
Creates new credit
Holds public taxes and fees
Targets strategic investments
Clearing bank for other banks
Profits recycled, public benefit
Modeled on
The Bank of North Dakota

63. Guy
WIR Inter-Business Banking gives
businesses credit when they need it

64. Guy
Micro-Lending is flourishing

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Many people have joined an
interest-free JAK Bank

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Community Currencies are flourishing

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Time-banking is flourishing
VANCOUVER

68. All banks and credit unions provide
Debt Circles

69. Guy
2: Poverty and Inequality

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Basic Income for all
has been established
A Basic Income is an income unconditionally
guaranteed to all on an individual basis,
without means test or work requirement.

71. Guy
www.livableincome.org

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It is being financed through:
• Reallocation of pensions
and unemployment benefit,
social security and welfare
payments
• Direct taxation
• Indirect taxation on
consumption (GST)
• The Financial Transactions
Tax

73. Guy
Student Debt problems have been solved

74. Guy
The Oregon Solution: Pay It Forward

75. The Sharing Economy is thriving

76. Guy
A Good Minimum Wage is Normal…

77. Guy
Debt Circles
Fair Taxation
Basic Income
Co-operatives
Profit-sharing
Affordable Housing
Student Debt Solution
The Sharing Economy
Increased Minimum Wage
Ability to grow your own food

78. Guy
3: Affordable Housing

79. Guy
Two-storey house: $1,151,250
Vancouver
Average House Prices, July 2013

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Detached bungalow: $1,052,500
Vancouver
Average House Prices, July 2013

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Condo: $490,475
Vancouver
Average House Prices, July 2013

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Existing City Initiatives
Vancouver Rent Bank
Inclusionary Zoning
Density Bonusing
Secondary Suites
Infill Development
Demolition Control
Further Initiatives…

83. Guy
$$ GATHERING THE MONEY $$
•There‟s a progressively increasing tax on real
estate sales over $2 million
•15% sales tax on properties bought through
offshore companies
•Annual levy on properties registered offshore
for tax reasons
•Escalating tax on empty properties to stop
developers from sitting on them

84. Guy
$$ SPENDING THE MONEY $$
•Vancouver Affordable Housing Trust Fund
•There‟s a Community Housing Circle in each
neighbourhood which plans and builds
affordable projects.

85. There‟s a Community Land Trust
which buys land for affordable housing
Hannah Wittman/Michelle Colussi

86. Guy
In rental apartments
there are Tenants‟ Stewardship Councils
which also have the first right of purchase

87. Guy
The new funds are being used to buy out
the Downtown Eastside Rooming Hotels,
and to restore or demolish and rebuild

88. Communal Renting has been legalized
for more than five people

89. Communal ownership has become common
8-Bedroom house in North Van: $1.5 million
= $250k each for 8 owners

90. Car-Free Laneway Micro-Housing
has become common

91. www.loftcube.net
There‟s a special Rooftop Homes Zone

92. Rooftop Housing
is the new cool
thing.

93. Micro-homes
502 Alexander St
Vancouver
280 sq ft
12 units, base cost
$85,000 each
CMHC

94. There are Micro-Homes Villages
on temporarily vacant land

95. Guy Claire Martin
4: The Downtown
Eastside

96. Guy
1. There is Basic Income for all
Already in place in our imagined 2032:

97. Guy
1. There is Basic Income for all
2. The Bank of BC creates low-
interest credit and supports local
community economies, including
microloans
Already in place in our imagined 2032:

98. Guy
1. There is Basic Income for all
2. The Bank of BC creates low-
interest credit and supports local
community economies, including
microloans
3. There are many new affordable
housing initiatives
Already in place in our imagined 2032:

99. Guy
4: There is funding
to restore or
rebuild the old
rooming hotels
In addition….

100. Guy
5. There is funding to convert the old motels
along Kingsway into single-room
housing coops

101. 6. BC has adopted the Nordic model,
decriminalizing prostituted women,
while criminalizing pimps and johns

102. 7: There has been a change in Canada‟s
prisons policy, with more restorative justice
and less jail time. It costs $114,000 a year to
keep someone in jail.

103. 8: Recreational soft drugs have been
legalized. There are safe legal injection sites,
detox and treatment on demand,
and recovery coaching to help ex-addicts
remain in their homes.

104. 9: A team of “Judy‟s Angels” provide
one-to-one support to help people
get off the street and into a home.

105. 10: Vancouver‟s Food
Banks (which fed 15,000
people a day in 2014)
have been transformed
into Community Food
Centres where people
learn how to cook
together, eat together,
grow their own food,
and join a Community
Food Coop.

107. Hastings Street from Cordova to Main
has been made car-free.
There is a green Trail of Power
with a big sculpture at each intersection
that tells the story of Canada‟s First Nations

111. Guy
5:
Transportation
without Oil

112. Guy
How most traffic engineer see the city
How cities should be designed
Who needs to own a car,
when walking is so pleasant,
Cycling such fun,
public transit so efficient
and carsharing so easy?
 20% of our trips in 2032 are on foot
 40% are by bike
 25% are by transit
 only 15% are by car or light truck

113. Many more people enjoy walking

114. Neighbourhoods have organized
local Walkability Audits
www.walklive.org

115. MANY more people are cycling:
40% of our trips in 2032

116. Guy

117. All bike lanes are safe separated bike lanes

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Electric Bicycles
are everywhere

125. The Copenhagen Wheel

127. Tony‟s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com

130. Guy

131. Many people are using Transit
= 25% of our trips

133. There are luxury commuter buses

134. There are many creative Bus Shelters,
designed by community volunteers

135. 100% Electric Buses

136. On-Line Recharge Electric Buses

137. Guy
Cars are only being used for 15% of our trips

138. Vehicle owners are earning
up to $300 a month
through peer-to-peer carsharing

139. Affordable small electric vehicles:
Renault Twizy
$9,700 + $60/month battery lease

140. 100 km = 15 kWh
10,000 km = 1,500 kWh
1,500 kwh @ 10 cents = $13 a month
Gas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month
Grid Power for EV
EV Bargain!!
10 times cheaper
to run!

141. Top
Hiroko EV

142. Top

143. Cargohopper
 3 tonnes max
 60 km range
 20 kph top speed
 Urban deliveries
 Holland
www.cargohopper.com

145. There is no more air pollution

146. And at night, because smart street lights are user-controlled
and office lights are turned out, we can see the stars

147. Guy
6: Our Homes

148. Guy
Every house with
a south-facing
roof is a
Solar House

149. Solar Economics in Vancouver
4 kW, 5% finance, 3% year hydro inflation
2013 2020 2032
Cost per kW $4,000 $3,000 $2,000
4 kW system $16,800 $12,600 $8,400
Cost + $ @ 5% $29,300 $22,000 $14,700
kWh per year 4,400 4,400 4,400
25 year Income $21,900 $26,300 $61,500
Profit -$7,400 +$4,300 +$46,800
Guy

150. Guy
Every house
with a south-
facing roof
has solar
hot water

151. Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
Neolithic Era
Ancient Egypt
Roman Empire
Islamic Golden Age
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The Age of Fossil Fuels
……………………………………….
The last 10,000 years

152. Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
The last 10,000 years
..................................................
What happens here,
when we stop burning fossil fuels?
The Age of
Fossil Fuels

153. Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun does not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
And with every passing year,
solar technology will improve
and get cheaper.

154. 90%
HEAT ENERGY
REDUCTION
IN NEW HOMES

155. Guy
Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com

157. 16" foam insulation.
8” studs, 24” OC with
plywood and OSB
EuroLine Windows
fiberglass/UPVC triple-glazed
U= 0.73
Heat recovery ventilation:
90% exhaust heat transferred
to incoming fresh air
Building cost only 4.3% more,

158. Solar Heat Pumps

159. Air-Source Solar Heat Pumps

160. Ductless Mini-Split Solar Heat Pumps

161. The Octopus Ice-Stick
www.octopus.tm
Air Moisture Solar Heat Pumps

162. Since 1991
In Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland,
Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland,
Germany, Holland, Italy, Romania, Ireland.

163. • Saves 50-75% on heating costs
• Uses air moisture, quiet air collector
• Operates down to -25o C

164. The cross is
an Ice-Stick
heat pump

165. Ground Source Solar Heat Pumps

166. Ground-Source Heat
Intelligent geothermal heat extraction

167. geothermic.tracto-technik.com

168. District Heat

169. Insulated Pipes
Hot water at 200o C
delivered to customers
25 km away
only a few degrees of
heat loss.

170. Vancouver False Creek Sewage-Based District Heat

172. Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta
Solar Thermal District Heat

173. 800
solar hot water
panels
on the garages
90% of residential space
heating needs met by solar
thermal energy (40-50o C)
Saves 5 tonnes
GHG emissions per home
per year.

174. The Energy Centre
Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year
Community solar
heat panels
Solar hot water
panels

175. Collective solar thermal system
on a residential building, Germany www.wagner-solar.com

176. LED Lighting

177. Smart Thermostats: NEST

178. Single „House-off‟ Switch

179. Li-fi instead of Wi-fi

180. Electronic Art

183. Guy
Legal Composting Toilets

184. Guy
Rainwater
Storage

185. Many people are growing their own food

187. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c

188. Guy
Boulevards are being vegetablized

189. Guy

190. Guy

191. 7: Our Neighbourhoods

192. Bioswale captures rainwater
SEA Street, Seattle

193. Guy
SEA Street, Seattle

194. Guy
Porous
Pavement

195. Guy
Crown Street Sustainable Streetscape
Natural Stormwater management

196. Guy
Lost Creeks are being restored

197. Guy
Still Creek, Vancouver.
Chum Salmon restored after 80 years

198. Streets are being re-imagined
and redesigned

202. www.cityrepair.org

203. Guy
www.cityrepair.org

204. Guy

206. Guy
Most Streets Hold an Annual Block Party

207. Guy www.restreets.org
Downtown streets are being calmed and claimed

208. Guy www.restreets.org
…and cultured

209. Guy
Suburban streets are being calmed and claimed

210. Guywww.restreets.org
Fast, dangerous streets are being slowed

211. Guywww.restreets.org
Fast, boring streets are being slowed and humanized

212. There are many local Farmers Markets

213. Guy
All Schools are Growing Their Own Food

214. Guy
Concrete school yards are being transformed

215. Guy
Semiahmoo Transit Station
Surrey
www.greenovergrey.com
Boring buildings are being greened…

217. Guy

218. Guy
Musee du quai Branly in Paris
designed by Patrick Blanc Le Mur Vegetal

219. Guy
Many neighbours are participating
in the sharing economy
www.streetbank.com

220. Guy www.collaborativeconsumption.com

221. Guy Neighbourhood Tool-Sharing

222. Guy
There‟s lots of
community art

224. Guy

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227. Guy Many people are celebrating

228. Guy

229. Guy

230. The Sustainable
City
The Happy,
Affordable City
More walking, biking, bus, carsharing = Lower transport costs
More urban food gardens = Lower food costs
Innovative affordable housing = Lower housing costs
Green, solar, energy-efficient homes = Lower energy costs
The Sharing Economy = Lower cash costs
Stronger community economies = More financial security
Basic Income, debt solutions = More financial security
More urban greenery = More peace, more beauty
No more fossil fuels = Clean air, clear sky, quiet city
More civic engagement = Healthier political realm
Stronger neighbourhoods = More friends, more real community
More arts, music, celebration = More friends, more happiness,

231. Guy
8: How Do We Get There?

232. Community engagement x 500

233. Guy

235. Design the Future
Community Meetings

236. Engage Young People
www.leadingchangenetwork.com

237. Guy
Electronic ballots

238. Electronic ballots
Voting aged reduced to 16

239. Electronic ballots
Voting aged reduced to 16
Transferable Voting at municipal elections

240. Electronic ballots
Voting aged reduced to 16
Transferable Voting at municipal elections
$100 voting tax credit (revenue neutral)

241. This whole presentation is available on
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

242. Special Price
$5

243. Special Price
$5

244. Special Price
$5

245. Special Price
$5

246. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous?
Where Do We Come From?
What Are We?
Where Are We Going??

247. Voyager 1 photo of
Earth from 6 billion
kilometers.

248. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
The Universe has taken
13 billion years
to create us

249. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of stars in the Universe
1024: 1 trillion trillion

250. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of
atoms in your
body:
1027: 1000 trillion
trillion
All self-organized
into one amazing
whole

251. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of stars in our galaxy
100 trillion

252. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of synapses in your brain
100 trillion
All self-organized into one amazing whole

253. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars

254. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
We are amazing…
and we are all conscious

255. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
We have free will
We can make a difference

256. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
This is about us, our planet,
our future.

257. It‟s Our World – So LETS CHANGE IT

260. Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com