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Imagining a Beautiful Green Future: Vancouver 2032

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By Guy Dauncey. First presented as a Langara College Metamorphosis Lecture Series, Feb 12, 2014. This larger version presented to CMHC on April 1st, 2014.

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Imagining a Beautiful Green Future: Vancouver 2032

  1. 1. CMHC April 1st, 2014
  2. 2. Guy
  3. 3. Guy Metamorphosis…
  4. 4. We have come a long way from this….
  5. 5. To this….
  6. 6. Guy
  7. 7. Guy
  8. 8. Guy
  9. 9. Guy
  10. 10. Guy but…
  11. 11. Guy Smithore Dreamstime.com We have also come to this…
  12. 12. Guy
  13. 13. GDP = Gross Depletion of the Planet
  14. 14. Gross Depletion of the Planet + Yield - Costs = Profit
  15. 15. Guy
  16. 16. Gross Depletion of the Planet
  17. 17. Guy And this…
  18. 18. The last time the world was 3C warmer the sea-level was up to 25 metres higher
  19. 19. 2 metres 10 metres 18 metres 25 metres
  20. 20. 1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
  21. 21. 3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
  22. 22. 20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
  23. 23. We have also come to this…
  24. 24. Guy And this… And this…
  25. 25. Guy
  26. 26. The power of our vision must be stronger than the power of our fears
  27. 27. “The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.” ― Eleanor Roosevelt
  28. 28. "Dreams are extremely important. You can't do it unless you can imagine it.” - George Lucas
  29. 29. Istanbul, Turkey
  30. 30. So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future?
  31. 31. What are the Values on which we shall build our future city? THE OLD THE NEW Moving Cars Moving People Individualism Community The Functional City The Happy City A Private Capitalist Economy A Sharing Co-operative Economy Domination over Nature Harmony with Nature
  32. 32. Guy
  33. 33. Guy
  34. 34. Guy
  35. 35. Eight Themes 1: A New Green Economy 2: Poverty & Inequality 3: Affordable Housing 4: The Downtown Eastside 5: Transportation without Oil 6: Our Homes 7: Our Neighbourhoods 8: How Do We Get There?
  36. 36. Guy Moving from a CAPITALIST to a COOPERATIVE Economy 1: The New Green Economy
  37. 37. Guy A COOPERATIVE Economy Businesses flourish in harmony with other businesses, workers, community and nature.
  38. 38. The Community Economy in 2032
  39. 39. Neighbourhoods across Vancouver have set up Urban Village Business Networks Businesses pay a 0.4% levy on sales for financial mutual support and cooperation.
  40. 40. Emilia Romagna, Italy • Population 4.4 million • $$$, top ten European regions • 32% self-employed • 76% work in small • Business with 4-5 workers • Italy’s 4th largest exporter • 400,000 enterprises • 15,000 cooperatives • Strong tradition of reciprocity, regional economy mutual support system, financed by a 0.4% levy on sales • High density of banks • Regional credit system with close ties to local enterprises • Lowest unemployment • Highest rate of citizen satisfaction in Italy
  41. 41. Emilia Romagna, Italy There are half a million businesses and coops in the region, which pay a 0.4% levy on sales to local inter-business organizations. In return, they receive support with financing, training, research, development strategies and export efforts.
  42. 42. Vancouver Cooperatives have their own Mutual Support Network
  43. 43. Local Businesses are making Wage Differentials Reduction Pledges from 30:1 to 10:1
  44. 44. Guy Many Vancouver businesses are becoming Benefit Corporations
  45. 45. Guy
  46. 46. Guy Most Vancouver businesses have Women Directors on the Board “Companies with more Women Board Directors experience higher financial performance, according to latest Catalyst Bottom Line Report.”
  47. 47. Guy All Vancouver businesses are incentivized to acquire Green Business Certification
  48. 48. Guy Youth Enterprise Initiatives are flourishing
  49. 49. Guy The Local Food Economy is flourishing www.solefoodfarms.com
  50. 50. Guy There is a big New City Market and Food Hub
  51. 51. Guy There are community gardens and micro-markets everywhere
  52. 52. Guy All of Vancouver‟s banks and credit unions have embraced Values-Based Banking
  53. 53. Guy A publicly-owned State Bank of BC has been established Creates new credit Holds public taxes and fees Targets strategic investments Clearing bank for other banks Profits recycled, public benefit Modeled on The Bank of North Dakota
  54. 54. Guy WIR Inter-Business Banking gives businesses credit when they need it
  55. 55. Guy Micro-Lending is flourishing
  56. 56. Guy Many people have joined an interest-free JAK Bank
  57. 57. Guy Community Currencies are flourishing
  58. 58. Guy Time-banking is flourishing VANCOUVER
  59. 59. All banks and credit unions provide Debt Circles
  60. 60. Guy 2: Poverty and Inequality
  61. 61. Guy Basic Income for all has been established A Basic Income is an income unconditionally guaranteed to all on an individual basis, without means test or work requirement.
  62. 62. Guy www.livableincome.org
  63. 63. Guy It is being financed through: • Reallocation of pensions and unemployment benefit, social security and welfare payments • Direct taxation • Indirect taxation on consumption (GST) • The Financial Transactions Tax
  64. 64. Guy Student Debt problems have been solved
  65. 65. Guy The Oregon Solution: Pay It Forward
  66. 66. The Sharing Economy is thriving
  67. 67. Guy A Good Minimum Wage is Normal…
  68. 68. Guy Debt Circles Fair Taxation Basic Income Co-operatives Profit-sharing Affordable Housing Student Debt Solution The Sharing Economy Increased Minimum Wage Ability to grow your own food
  69. 69. Guy 3: Affordable Housing
  70. 70. Guy Two-storey house: $1,151,250 Vancouver Average House Prices, July 2013
  71. 71. Guy Detached bungalow: $1,052,500 Vancouver Average House Prices, July 2013
  72. 72. Guy Condo: $490,475 Vancouver Average House Prices, July 2013
  73. 73. Guy Existing City Initiatives Vancouver Rent Bank Inclusionary Zoning Density Bonusing Secondary Suites Infill Development Demolition Control Further Initiatives…
  74. 74. Guy $$ GATHERING THE MONEY $$ •There‟s a progressively increasing tax on real estate sales over $2 million •15% sales tax on properties bought through offshore companies •Annual levy on properties registered offshore for tax reasons •Escalating tax on empty properties to stop developers from sitting on them
  75. 75. Guy $$ SPENDING THE MONEY $$ •Vancouver Affordable Housing Trust Fund •There‟s a Community Housing Circle in each neighbourhood which plans and builds affordable projects.
  76. 76. There‟s a Community Land Trust which buys land for affordable housing Hannah Wittman/Michelle Colussi
  77. 77. Guy In rental apartments there are Tenants‟ Stewardship Councils which also have the first right of purchase
  78. 78. Guy The new funds are being used to buy out the Downtown Eastside Rooming Hotels, and to restore or demolish and rebuild
  79. 79. Communal Renting has been legalized for more than five people
  80. 80. Communal ownership has become common 8-Bedroom house in North Van: $1.5 million = $250k each for 8 owners
  81. 81. Car-Free Laneway Micro-Housing has become common
  82. 82. www.loftcube.net There‟s a special Rooftop Homes Zone
  83. 83. Rooftop Housing is the new cool thing.
  84. 84. Micro-homes 502 Alexander St Vancouver 280 sq ft 12 units, base cost $85,000 each CMHC
  85. 85. There are Micro-Homes Villages on temporarily vacant land
  86. 86. Guy Claire Martin 4: The Downtown Eastside
  87. 87. Guy 1. There is Basic Income for all Already in place in our imagined 2032:
  88. 88. Guy 1. There is Basic Income for all 2. The Bank of BC creates low- interest credit and supports local community economies, including microloans Already in place in our imagined 2032:
  89. 89. Guy 1. There is Basic Income for all 2. The Bank of BC creates low- interest credit and supports local community economies, including microloans 3. There are many new affordable housing initiatives Already in place in our imagined 2032:
  90. 90. Guy 4: There is funding to restore or rebuild the old rooming hotels In addition….
  91. 91. Guy 5. There is funding to convert the old motels along Kingsway into single-room housing coops
  92. 92. 6. BC has adopted the Nordic model, decriminalizing prostituted women, while criminalizing pimps and johns
  93. 93. 7: There has been a change in Canada‟s prisons policy, with more restorative justice and less jail time. It costs $114,000 a year to keep someone in jail.
  94. 94. 8: Recreational soft drugs have been legalized. There are safe legal injection sites, detox and treatment on demand, and recovery coaching to help ex-addicts remain in their homes.
  95. 95. 9: A team of “Judy‟s Angels” provide one-to-one support to help people get off the street and into a home.
  96. 96. 10: Vancouver‟s Food Banks (which fed 15,000 people a day in 2014) have been transformed into Community Food Centres where people learn how to cook together, eat together, grow their own food, and join a Community Food Coop.
  97. 97. Hastings Street from Cordova to Main has been made car-free. There is a green Trail of Power with a big sculpture at each intersection that tells the story of Canada‟s First Nations
  98. 98. Guy 5: Transportation without Oil
  99. 99. Guy How most traffic engineer see the city How cities should be designed Who needs to own a car, when walking is so pleasant, Cycling such fun, public transit so efficient and carsharing so easy?  20% of our trips in 2032 are on foot  40% are by bike  25% are by transit  only 15% are by car or light truck
  100. 100. Many more people enjoy walking
  101. 101. Neighbourhoods have organized local Walkability Audits www.walklive.org
  102. 102. MANY more people are cycling: 40% of our trips in 2032
  103. 103. Guy
  104. 104. All bike lanes are safe separated bike lanes
  105. 105. Guy Electric Bicycles are everywhere
  106. 106. The Copenhagen Wheel
  107. 107. Tony‟s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com
  108. 108. Guy
  109. 109. Many people are using Transit = 25% of our trips
  110. 110. There are luxury commuter buses
  111. 111. There are many creative Bus Shelters, designed by community volunteers
  112. 112. 100% Electric Buses
  113. 113. On-Line Recharge Electric Buses
  114. 114. Guy Cars are only being used for 15% of our trips
  115. 115. Vehicle owners are earning up to $300 a month through peer-to-peer carsharing
  116. 116. Affordable small electric vehicles: Renault Twizy $9,700 + $60/month battery lease
  117. 117. 100 km = 15 kWh 10,000 km = 1,500 kWh 1,500 kwh @ 10 cents = $13 a month Gas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month Grid Power for EV EV Bargain!! 10 times cheaper to run!
  118. 118. Top Hiroko EV
  119. 119. Top
  120. 120. Cargohopper  3 tonnes max  60 km range  20 kph top speed  Urban deliveries  Holland www.cargohopper.com
  121. 121. There is no more air pollution
  122. 122. And at night, because smart street lights are user-controlled and office lights are turned out, we can see the stars
  123. 123. Guy 6: Our Homes
  124. 124. Guy Every house with a south-facing roof is a Solar House
  125. 125. Solar Economics in Vancouver 4 kW, 5% finance, 3% year hydro inflation 2013 2020 2032 Cost per kW $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 4 kW system $16,800 $12,600 $8,400 Cost + $ @ 5% $29,300 $22,000 $14,700 kWh per year 4,400 4,400 4,400 25 year Income $21,900 $26,300 $61,500 Profit -$7,400 +$4,300 +$46,800 Guy
  126. 126. Guy Every house with a south- facing roof has solar hot water
  127. 127. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com Neolithic Era Ancient Egypt Roman Empire Islamic Golden Age 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 The Age of Fossil Fuels ………………………………………. The last 10,000 years
  128. 128. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com The last 10,000 years .................................................. What happens here, when we stop burning fossil fuels? The Age of Fossil Fuels
  129. 129. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com A billion years The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years. And with every passing year, solar technology will improve and get cheaper.
  130. 130. 90% HEAT ENERGY REDUCTION IN NEW HOMES
  131. 131. Guy Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com
  132. 132. 16" foam insulation. 8” studs, 24” OC with plywood and OSB EuroLine Windows fiberglass/UPVC triple-glazed U= 0.73 Heat recovery ventilation: 90% exhaust heat transferred to incoming fresh air Building cost only 4.3% more,
  133. 133. Solar Heat Pumps
  134. 134. Air-Source Solar Heat Pumps
  135. 135. Ductless Mini-Split Solar Heat Pumps
  136. 136. The Octopus Ice-Stick www.octopus.tm Air Moisture Solar Heat Pumps
  137. 137. Since 1991 In Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, Holland, Italy, Romania, Ireland.
  138. 138. • Saves 50-75% on heating costs • Uses air moisture, quiet air collector • Operates down to -25o C
  139. 139. The cross is an Ice-Stick heat pump
  140. 140. Ground Source Solar Heat Pumps
  141. 141. Ground-Source Heat Intelligent geothermal heat extraction
  142. 142. geothermic.tracto-technik.com
  143. 143. District Heat
  144. 144. Insulated Pipes Hot water at 200o C delivered to customers 25 km away only a few degrees of heat loss.
  145. 145. Vancouver False Creek Sewage-Based District Heat
  146. 146. Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta Solar Thermal District Heat
  147. 147. 800 solar hot water panels on the garages 90% of residential space heating needs met by solar thermal energy (40-50o C) Saves 5 tonnes GHG emissions per home per year.
  148. 148. The Energy Centre Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year Community solar heat panels Solar hot water panels
  149. 149. Collective solar thermal system on a residential building, Germany www.wagner-solar.com
  150. 150. LED Lighting
  151. 151. Smart Thermostats: NEST
  152. 152. Single „House-off‟ Switch
  153. 153. Li-fi instead of Wi-fi
  154. 154. Electronic Art
  155. 155. Guy Legal Composting Toilets
  156. 156. Guy Rainwater Storage
  157. 157. Many people are growing their own food
  158. 158. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c
  159. 159. Guy Boulevards are being vegetablized
  160. 160. Guy
  161. 161. Guy
  162. 162. 7: Our Neighbourhoods
  163. 163. Bioswale captures rainwater SEA Street, Seattle
  164. 164. Guy SEA Street, Seattle
  165. 165. Guy Porous Pavement
  166. 166. Guy Crown Street Sustainable Streetscape Natural Stormwater management
  167. 167. Guy Lost Creeks are being restored
  168. 168. Guy Still Creek, Vancouver. Chum Salmon restored after 80 years
  169. 169. Streets are being re-imagined and redesigned
  170. 170. www.cityrepair.org
  171. 171. Guy www.cityrepair.org
  172. 172. Guy
  173. 173. Guy Most Streets Hold an Annual Block Party
  174. 174. Guy www.restreets.org Downtown streets are being calmed and claimed
  175. 175. Guy www.restreets.org …and cultured
  176. 176. Guy Suburban streets are being calmed and claimed
  177. 177. Guywww.restreets.org Fast, dangerous streets are being slowed
  178. 178. Guywww.restreets.org Fast, boring streets are being slowed and humanized
  179. 179. There are many local Farmers Markets
  180. 180. Guy All Schools are Growing Their Own Food
  181. 181. Guy Concrete school yards are being transformed
  182. 182. Guy Semiahmoo Transit Station Surrey www.greenovergrey.com Boring buildings are being greened…
  183. 183. Guy
  184. 184. Guy Musee du quai Branly in Paris designed by Patrick Blanc Le Mur Vegetal
  185. 185. Guy Many neighbours are participating in the sharing economy www.streetbank.com
  186. 186. Guy www.collaborativeconsumption.com
  187. 187. Guy Neighbourhood Tool-Sharing
  188. 188. Guy There‟s lots of community art
  189. 189. Guy
  190. 190. Guy
  191. 191. Guy
  192. 192. Guy Many people are celebrating
  193. 193. Guy
  194. 194. Guy
  195. 195. The Sustainable City The Happy, Affordable City More walking, biking, bus, carsharing = Lower transport costs More urban food gardens = Lower food costs Innovative affordable housing = Lower housing costs Green, solar, energy-efficient homes = Lower energy costs The Sharing Economy = Lower cash costs Stronger community economies = More financial security Basic Income, debt solutions = More financial security More urban greenery = More peace, more beauty No more fossil fuels = Clean air, clear sky, quiet city More civic engagement = Healthier political realm Stronger neighbourhoods = More friends, more real community More arts, music, celebration = More friends, more happiness,
  196. 196. Guy 8: How Do We Get There?
  197. 197. Community engagement x 500
  198. 198. Guy
  199. 199. Design the Future Community Meetings
  200. 200. Engage Young People www.leadingchangenetwork.com
  201. 201. Guy Electronic ballots
  202. 202. Electronic ballots Voting aged reduced to 16
  203. 203. Electronic ballots Voting aged reduced to 16 Transferable Voting at municipal elections
  204. 204. Electronic ballots Voting aged reduced to 16 Transferable Voting at municipal elections $100 voting tax credit (revenue neutral)
  205. 205. This whole presentation is available on www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
  206. 206. Special Price $5
  207. 207. Special Price $5
  208. 208. Special Price $5
  209. 209. Special Price $5
  210. 210. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous? Where Do We Come From? What Are We? Where Are We Going??
  211. 211. Voyager 1 photo of Earth from 6 billion kilometers.
  212. 212. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com The Universe has taken 13 billion years to create us
  213. 213. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Number of stars in the Universe 1024: 1 trillion trillion
  214. 214. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Number of atoms in your body: 1027: 1000 trillion trillion All self-organized into one amazing whole
  215. 215. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Number of stars in our galaxy 100 trillion
  216. 216. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Number of synapses in your brain 100 trillion All self-organized into one amazing whole
  217. 217. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars
  218. 218. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com We are amazing… and we are all conscious
  219. 219. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com We have free will We can make a difference
  220. 220. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com This is about us, our planet, our future.
  221. 221. It‟s Our World – So LETS CHANGE IT
  222. 222. Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com

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